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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 7h

The convergence on the USB-C standard, I believe the result of European regulation, is the ultimate solution to this problem

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 22h

I think any Dem has a hard time in Texas in 2032, and an ambitious politician might be looking for an upward opportunity soon

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 23h

A Hinojosa win would make it easier for a Sen Talarico to run for president, knowing his replacement would be a Dem. I imagine other 2028 hopefuls would be less than thrilled about that

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 23h

I really hope someone can, at some point in the future, pool and geolocate by media market generic ballot polling from this month so we can quantify the effect of Trump rallies on midterm vote choice

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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

New working paper: the Norwegian wealth tax was a huge success. The "exodus" of wealthy people never happened (less than 100 individuals left). Tax revenue increased by 71.5%. No changes in business activity or investment. www.nber.org/papers/w35854

Taxing Entrepreneurial Wealth: Evidence from
Norway, 2021-2025
Marius A. K. Ring
WORKING PAPER 35854|
DOl 10.3386/w35854
ISSUE DATE October 2026
Whether imposing higher taxes on business owners adversely affects business activity by constraining investment and inducing capitalist flight is a central question in the ongoing debate on how to tax the ultra wealthy. To shed new light, I exploit a series of related Norwegian reforms during 2021-2024 that increased dividend tax rates, removed migration-related capital gains tax loopholes, and nearly doubled the effective marginal tax rate on business wealth. These reforms spurred international debate and, allegedly, an "exodus" of Norwegian billionaires (Financial Times,
2023). While I document clear effects on migration, these responses are concentrated among the top 0.1% of the wealth distribution and mostly confined to 2022 and 2023. My results indicate that at most 100 individuals left due to the reforms. I find no evidence of significant outmigration or reduced inflows of startup founders or inventors. I estimate that absent any outmigration, wealth tax revenues would have increased by 75% from 2021 to 2024. Reform-driven outmigration lowers the revenue gain to 71.5%. My findings further show that outmigrating owners' firms remain economically active and do not reduce investment. In a broader set of analyses, I examine whether business outcomes are affected, regardless of whether owners outmigrate, since firms may reduce investment both due to liquidity constraints or distortions to owners' savings decisions. I compare firms owned by Norwegian individuals subject to the wealth tax with firms owned by foreigners and other tax-exempt entities. By merging historical ownership data from Orbis with the Norwegian shareholder register, I perform these analyses on both Norwegian and foreign-domiciled firms.
Across settings, I find no evidence that Norwegian-owned firms pay out more dividends or invest less after the reforms,…

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Thomas Leeper @thosjleeper.bsky.social · 23h

We found out today that my father-in-law's Medicare plan is no longer being offered in Hennepin County - nor is any equivalent plan being offered by any other insurer - so great, this will change everything. So helpful.

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Clearly, it's not just that Elon thinks AI models are people, he thinks they are White people, because he hasn't shown this much compassion to anyone else

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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

My man ended USAID, condemning millions to death

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Tom Bonier @tbonier.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

That’s not a misprint - more Latino voters have cast a ballot already than did at the same point in the 2024 presidential election.

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DC Council @councilofdc.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

This is clearly not acceptable

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Interesting survey experiment newly published in @polbehavior.bsky.social testing reactions among White Democrats to pro-racial justice protests, varying both protester race and the degree to which the message is critical of White people. link.springer.com/article/10.1...

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Amanda Hoey @amandahoey.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

An interesting note from the Poll Pile: two internal polls both showing the Dem with a lead in KY-06. That piqued my interest for two reasons: Trump won it by 15 points, and KY has among the earliest poll closings in the nation, 6 PM EST. A win there is an early sign it’ll be a VERY good night.

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Interesting new study in @polbehavior.bsky.social looking at survey-based measurement of political engagement and how to reduce over-reporting. Authors have one encouraging approach, though it lengthens instrument and thus increases respondent burden. link.springer.com/article/10.1...

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

So my question for law folks is this: what lawsuits in the second Trump term that have failed on standing grounds would be likely to proceed if one or both chambers of Congress were plaintiffs (perhaps under slightly different legal theories) and which would not?

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

In a recent @lawfaremedia.org podcast discussion impoundment and recision, @mollyroberts.bsky.social points out that standing has been an issue for mot only lawsuits about impoundment but also a variety of (in my view, illegal) Trump actions.

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

I have seen some chatter on here that because a hypothetical Dem Congress next year won't be able to pass votes over Trump's veto all they can do is hearings and investigations. But I would love to see some legally informed writing about the implications for standing in lawsuits

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Jay Willis @jaywillis.net · 09/10/2026

Kind of a buried lede in the results of this Supreme Court approval rating poll from Marquette: Overall support for Supreme Court expansion, which even Democratic politicians were dismissing as "radical" just a few years ago, is now at 53 percent today.marquette.edu/2026/09/marq...

Proposal Favor or oppose
Favor Oppose
Enforce strict ethics code for justices 89 10
Limited terms for justices 79 21
Increase number of justices 53 47
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey: Sept. 2-9, 2026

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Not matter how much you care about polling error, I promise you survey researchers care about it more.

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

I agree the term "Artificial Intelligence" is a problematic term, but not that the problematic part of it is "Artificial"

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

This was a really good podcast with @gelliottmorris.com and @davidnir.com on how midterm horserace polls could be wrong -- in either direction. Really gets into the weeds in a great way. And as much as I generally hate video podcasts, this one has graphs www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-10-08...

gelliottmorris.com

The case for and against the polls

Elliott and David explain both sides of the current debate over the accuracy of the polls, and talk through the state of play in races for governor in nine states.

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Maybe finally people will just adopt the term "Large Language Model"

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Who are also very bad at debating

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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

The news just since I left work: -A planned livestream of an execution by firing squad -Trump basically trying to incite a pogrom against Somalis Nothing mysterious or complicated about what's happening.

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Like Don Jr.'s ex (I'm sorry, Ambassador Guillfoyle) and her Amex Bill, they always expect someone else to foot the bill for their mistakes

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Its telling that when Trump's allies ask for patriotic sacrifice, it's always asking working folks to pay more at the pump, more at the grocery store, more for health insurance, and never to ask their millionaire donors to pay more in taxes to pay for the pointless war Trump started (and is losing)

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

The Ossoff - Collins debate shows why Paxton has refused to show up to debate Talarico

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

It's really striking that, when candidates often avoid saying their opponent's name, Ossoff repeats Mike Collins (no relation) like a mantra

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Ooh, I need to call my pediatrician

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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 08/10/2026

Perhaps relevant to current handicapping: In 2018, voters who decided who to vote for at the very last minute were the most Democratic group in the electorate

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

The FCC chair is Brendan Carr. I think you mean FTC

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Meanwhile, updated covid shots are still not available for children under 12

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Three things to look for in D messaging this year - Affordability for working people - Accountability for corrupt abuses of power - Adaptability of their messages to their specific constituency

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

New study in Behavioral Research Methods argues that MaxDiff (referred to here as Best Worst Scaling) outperforms ranking as measure of preferences, in particular on test-retest reliability and particular of middling preferences link.springer.com/article/10.3...

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

I'm not read up on Texas History, how did that battle of the Alamo go?

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Aaron Reichlin-Melnick @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Haha wow is this comically corrupt. /he didn't end up paying her the money because he said he'd get in trouble with his wife.

By
Dana Mattioli
,
Drew Hinshaw
,
Rebecca Ballhaus
and
Joe Parkinson
Oct. 7, 2026 4:53 pm ET

Kimberly Guilfoyle was preparing for her congressional hearing to become U.S. ambassador to Greece when she reached out to a Trump donor with an urgent request: She needed $100,000 that she said she owed American Express—in a way that wouldn’t leave a paper trail.

“It won’t show up anywhere if you wire money to American Express,” she wrote on Signal, according to messages reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. “Please.”

Underneath is a screenshot of a text. First text is a link to an American Express instructions PDF. Next text says: "You can just send it here. It won't show up anywhere if you wire money to American Express that's all that will show." Final text: "Please."

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Josh Zingher @zingherpolisci.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

We've probably learned more about American politics from the ANES than any other single data source. The same is true for the GSS and sociology. Both of these are gone if Congress acquiesces to these NSF cuts.

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Is this written up somewhere besides this thread?

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 07/10/2026

Prob vs. Non-Prob accounts for pretty much the only significant differences between polls.

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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 07/10/2026

There has a been a consistent gap in the generic ballot and Trump approval polls between non-probability polls and probability polls all year, but non-probability results are rapidly converging toward probability results over the last few weeks. Seems suspicious to mean.

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Her complaint is that she hasn't seen her grandchild since August 7 of this year ... less than two months. And already calling for the state to intervene, and force (I guess?) visitation rights for grandparents? I for one sure don't think that's going to make her daughter warm up to her

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

I always appreciate it when these questions are shared with previous data to contextualize the data

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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Don't sleep on the comparison of survey data quality from panel vs. text to web either

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