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Joaquin Carbonell

@joaquinc.bsky.social
396 followers 1.2K following 47 posts

Research | Data Science at the California Department of Social Services. All views my own.

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Reposted by Joaquin Carbonell
NBER @nber.org · 23/08/2026
A minimax justification for independent, rather than complete, randomization in experiments, from @instrumenthull.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w35629
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Reposted by Joaquin Carbonell
Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Hot takes suggest that spending more on public schools doesn't help. But this cool paper (political scientists publishing in an econ journal 😎) shows that increasing public school spending improves test scores and graduation rates. gated: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
New from me: More than a trillion dollars flow through the federal government in grants. We have more and more evidence that the Trump administration has been directing those grants on purely partisan grounds, denying them to blue states. 🧵 donmoynihan.substack.com/p/governing-...
donmoynihan.substack.com
Governing without Accountability
Trump only wants to be President of some of America, not all of America
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Timothy McBride @mcbridetd.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
FDA approves first mRNA flu vaccine thehill.com/policy/healt...
thehill.com
FDA approves first mRNA flu vaccine
The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) late Wednesday approved the nation’s first mRNA flu vaccine, manufactured by drugmaker Moderna.  The agency approved the shot for two separate age group…
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Joaquin Carbonell @joaquinc.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Want to use your data science and engineering skills for good? Consider applying for this Research Data Engineer position on my team or help us spread the word! Link to job posting in next skeet - Apply by July 27! 🧵about our team's work and the job 1/7
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Jason @jrock08.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Congestion pricing improved air quality in the entire metro region, putting to rest one of the last arguments of opponents: That it would harm people that live outside the zone. news.cornell.edu/stories/2025...
news.cornell.edu
Congestion pricing improved air quality in NYC and suburbs | Cornell Chronicle
Cornell researchers tallied the environmental benefits of New York City’s congestion pricing program and found air pollution dropped by 22% in Manhattan, with additional declines across the city’s fiv...
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Joaquin Carbonell @joaquinc.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
Excellent review of HHS-ASPE’s new “study” of the impact of Medicaid work requirements on poverty. @chloeneast.bsky.social and @adrianna.bsky.social bringing that heat 🔥 donmoynihan.substack.com/p/the-trump-...
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Joaquin Carbonell @joaquinc.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Nice roundup of the literature on the effect of upzoning on housing supply among other things by @urbaninstitute.bsky.social housingmatters.urban.org/how-upzoning...
housingmatters.urban.org
How Upzoning Affects Housing Supply
Many jurisdictions are considering or have already enacted zoning reforms to boost housing supply. Here’s what research tells us about when it delivers new h…
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Reposted by Joaquin Carbonell
Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani @mayor.nyc.gov · 06/04/2026
Ever wonder how to get rid of a mattress? Or how to find resources for a neighbor in need? Call 311.    311 is contacted 100,000 times every day, 7 days a week, 52 weeks a year. No call is too small.    So on the anniversary of 311 (3/11), I decided to answer some of those calls myself.
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Dominique Baker @bakerdphd.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
"all fortunes are family fortunes, all power is family power, and all status is family status" That's a powerful line
Screenshot of article which reads: These cases are instructive for social scientists, who typically conceptualize “elites” as individuals with “vastly disproportionate” control over one
kind of resource (Khan 2012:361). But when it comes to the family “class project” of upper-class persistence (Hamilton and Armstrong 2021), effectively, all fortunes are family fortunes, all power is family power,
and all status is family status.
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David Roberts @volts.wtf · 27/02/2026
They were going to pass rules to phase out gas stoves, until they received 20,000 public comments against the regulations. Except, oops, it turns out the comments were generated by AI.
phys.org
Southern California air board rejected pollution rules after AI-generated flood of comments
The opposition appeared overwhelming: Tens of thousands of emails poured into Southern California's top air pollution authority as its board weighed a June proposal to phase out gas-powered appliances...
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Joaquin Carbonell @joaquinc.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
Some deep truths about the Cuban exile community. Beautiful essay. www.equator.org/articles/the...
equator.org
The Thing We Call Exile • EQUATOR
A Cuban writer contemplates his new life in America, as Washington puts the island under siege once again
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Reposted by Joaquin Carbonell
Nate Jensen @natemjensen.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
Our paper is out in PNAS. www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
pnas.org
Why Biden-era clean energy investment policies had limited political returns | PNAS
The Biden Administration enacted the largest federal policy framework to incentivize clean energy and decarbonization in U.S. history. We examine w...
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Reposted by Joaquin Carbonell
Review of Economics and Statistics (REStat) @restatjournal.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
Tests for p-hacking can have low power; non-rejections do not indicate an absence of p-hacking. Just Accepted new paper by Graham Elliott, Nikolay Kudrin @NKudrin and Kaspar Wüthrich. zurl.co/EggwF
zurl.co
The Power of Tests for Detecting p-Hacking
Abstract. A flourishing empirical literature investigates the prevalence of p-hacking based on the distribution of p-values across studies. Interpreting
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Reposted by Joaquin Carbonell
Brian Goldstone @brian-goldstone.bsky.social · 21/02/2026
Reading this story—about how the Pentagon has been given so much extra money it's struggling to spend it all—while thinking about the formerly homeless tenants I've spoken with in recent weeks whose housing vouchers are being discontinued for "lack of funds."
washingtonpost.com
Trump aides struggle with how to spend $500 billion more on military
Some senior officials resisted the decision to approve the major military spending increase, people familiar with the matter say.
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Fired but Fighting (National Public Health Coalition) @firedbutfighting.bsky.social · 21/02/2026
This a great piece of investigative journalism. @rollingstone.com This should be required reading for scientists and ethicists. Ethics matter, especially in science. www.rollingstone.com/politics/pol...
rollingstone.com
New Documents Reveal a Controversial Vaccine Study's Unusual Path to CDC Approval
A new investigation has found irregularities in the ethics review of a grant to study effects of a birth dose of hepatitis B vaccine in Guinea-Bissau.
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Matthew A Kraft @matthewakraft.com · 18/02/2026
🚨Thrilled to share our new @nber.org WP. Research and policy often assume teacher effectiveness is essentially fixed. We revisit this question by studying what happens when high-performing teachers are incentivized to transfer to struggling schools. 🧵 nber.org/papers/w34845
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Eileen Ridge @eileen4ever.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
Holy moly this chart: Cumulative US measles cases
Cumulative US measles cases
As of January 27, there have been more cases than there were by the same week last year.
Fairly horizontal lines for 2023 and 2024, a steep diagonal line for 2025, and a vertical line for ytd 2026. 
2026
478 cases
2025
2253 cases
2024
283 cases
2023
63 cases
Note: Data updated on January 27, 2026, at 3 p.m. ET.
Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Johns Hopkins University, Center for Outbreak Response Innovation Graphic: Alex Leeds Matthews and Matt Stiles, CNN
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Joaquin Carbonell @joaquinc.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
The research and data shop here at CDSS is #hiring for TWO data engineer positions that will be essential to the modernization of our data infrastructure. Help us spread the word! 𝐒𝐚𝐥𝐚𝐫𝐲: $91,680 per year 𝐀𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐛𝐲: Feb 6 𝐀𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞: calcareers.ca.gov/CalHrPublic/...
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Joaquin Carbonell @joaquinc.bsky.social · 17/01/2026
CA reduced EBT theft by 83% since Jan 2024: www.kcra.com/article/cali... A few reflections on this work 🧵below Disclaimer: This is my view as a private citizen though I work at CDSS and have been involved in the dept's response to theft for the last 3.5 yrs 1/10
kcra.com
California sees major drop in EBT fraud and theft, state leaders say
According to state data shared exclusively with KCRA 3 on Thursday, there has been an 83% decline in theft associated with Electronic Benefits Transfer.
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Ned Resnikoff @resnikoff.bsky.social · 05/12/2025
Listen, I know the housing shortage is killing a great American city, but that really is one of our most historically significant Safeways www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/s...
sfchronicle.com
Marina’s reaction to Safeway tower plans: ‘Along comes this behemoth right on the waterfront’
Plans to put a 25-story apartment complex on San Francisco’s Marina district sparked concerts about a future where the city’s waterfront is ringed by tall housing structures.
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Joshua Goodman @joshua-goodman.com · 05/12/2025
I am increasingly convinced the optimal number of laptops per child is 0 (or at least much lower than 1). From the latest Journal of Public Economics issue: doi.org/10.1016/j.jp...
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Scott McGrath @smcgrath.phd · 05/12/2025
AI dialogues shifted political support by 2 to 3 points in trials, eclipsing standard ads. Roughly one-third of this effect persisted for a month. However, models optimized for persuasion proved more factually error-prone. #MLSky
nature.com
AI chatbots can persuade voters to change their minds
Conversations with AI can sway people’s political views. Concerningly, a chatbot’s facts are not always accurate, especially when it supports right-wing positions.
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 29/11/2025
striking that so many cities are seeing parallel homicide declines this year. i have no good explanation jasher.substack.com/p/the-fbi-wi...
Murder is down a lot in big cities
2025 vs 2024 YTD murders in top 30 cities w/most murders in 2024

Table with 5 columns and 32 rows. Sorted ascending by column "% Change" (column headers with buttons are sortable)
City	YTD 2025	YTD 2024	% Change	As Of
Birmingham	53	109	−51.4%	25-Aug
Denver	28	51	−45.1%	28-Aug
Dallas	82	131	−37.4%	29-Aug
Chicago	272	397	−31.5%	29-Aug
Louisville	75	109	−31.2%	30-Aug
Las Vegas	55	79	−30.4%	31-Aug
Charlotte	53	76	−30.3%	28-Aug
Baltimore	90	129	−30.2%	31-Aug
Memphis	176	251	−29.9%	30-Aug
Columbus	54	77	−29.9%	31-Aug
Oakland	41	57	−28.1%	31-Aug
Atlanta	63	84	−25.0%	23-Aug
Indianapolis	84	111	−24.3%	31-Aug
Albuquerque	50	66	−24.2%	31-Aug
Phoenix	65	83	−21.7%	31-Jul
New Orleans	74	93	−20.4%	31-Aug
Nashville	47	59	−20.3%	30-Aug
New York City	209	260	−19.6%	31-Aug
Cleveland	68	83	−18.1%	28-Aug
Philadelphia	150	183	−18.0%	31-Aug
St Louis	90	109	−17.4%	31-Aug
Washington	103	122	−15.6%	28-Aug
Detroit	122	138	−11.6%	28-Aug
Houston	195	218	−10.6%	31-Aug
Los Angeles	182	200	−9.0%	30-Aug
San Antonio	80	83	−3.6%	31-Aug
Greensboro	26	26	±0.0%	31-Aug
Kansas City	107	104	+2.9%	31-Aug
Milwaukee	100	93	+7.5%	28-Aug
Fort Worth	51	46	+10.9%	31-Aug
Jacksonville	51	41	+24.4%	31-Aug
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Greg Sasso @gregsasso.bsky.social · 30/11/2025
May write more about this at length in the future: good causal inference training leads to better descriptive research
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Pietro Biroli @pietrobiroli.bsky.social · 20/05/2025
🧵New paper out: “Beyond Time: Unveiling the Invisible Burden of Mental Load” with Barigozzi, Monfardini, Montinari, @elenapisanelli.bsky.social @svevav.bsky.social 🔗 arxiv.org/abs/2505.11426 /1
arxiv.org
Beyond Time: Unveiling the Invisible Burden of Mental Load
This paper introduces a novel, scalable methodology to measure individual perceptions of gaps in mental load -- the cognitive and emotional burden associated with organizing household and childcare ta...
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Joaquin Carbonell @joaquinc.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
Policy research folks take note - CPL's research is very influential in California state policy and this high-impact role will help expand that influence. Consider applying and share with your networks!
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Joaquin Carbonell @joaquinc.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
One week until this job posting closes. Do dope research, serve the great state of California. Join us.
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evanbwhite.bsky.social @evanbwhite.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
This is a great research team for those seeking to make impact within government.
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Kelsey Pukelis @kpukelis.bsky.social · 20/08/2025
An opportunity to join our fantastic research team at the California Department of Social Services!
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Joaquin Carbonell @joaquinc.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
Our research shop at the CA Dept of Social Services is #hiring for a Principal Researcher calcareers.ca.gov/CalHrPublic/... Posting closes 9/15. Please help us spread the word! This position will lead high impact research projects and shape/set standards for our research portfolio.
calcareers.ca.gov
Data Engineer
Looking to make a difference? Join our strong and mighty workforce. We offer benefits and growth opportunities and impact the lives of millions of Californians.
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Chapin Hall @chapinhall.bsky.social · 18/08/2025
Always happy to uplift job opportunities that can have a positive impact for children and families! Check out the opportunity at the top of this thread👇 Thank you for the shout out, @joaquinc.bsky.social! We always appreciate working with the California Department of Social Services team.
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Joaquin Carbonell @joaquinc.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
Our research shop at the CA Dept of Social Services is #hiring for a Principal Data Enigneer calcareers.ca.gov/CalHrPublic/... Posting closes 9/8. Please help us spread the word! This position will build data pipelines for our in-house research and analytics.
calcareers.ca.gov
Data Engineer
Looking to make a difference? Join our strong and mighty workforce. We offer benefits and growth opportunities and impact the lives of millions of Californians.
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Molly Jong-Fast @mollyjongfast.bsky.social · 02/03/2025
Richest guy in the world telling us we can’t afford to have our government fund cancer research.
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Amy Westervelt @amywestervelt.bsky.social · 01/03/2025
Feels like a good time to revisit this little bit of American history, or learn it if you didn’t already know it: newsroom.haas.berkeley.edu/research/how...
newsroom.haas.berkeley.edu
How Woodrow Wilson’s racist policies eroded the Black civil service - Haas News | Berkeley Haas
Before the election of President Woodrow Wilson, Black Americans worked at all levels of the federal government. But when Wilson assumed office in 1913, he mandated that the federal workforce be segre...
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Yonah Freemark @yonahfreemark.com · 22/02/2025
NYC>Chicago is legitimately a great corridor for high-speed rail, if states of NY, PA, OH, IN & IL could unite for it. You could hit: —NYC—20m —Philly—6m —Harrisburg—600k —Pittsburgh—2.4m —Youngstown—400k —Cleveland—2.2m —Toledo—600k —Ft Wayne—500k —South Bend—300k —Chicago—9m On a ~straight route
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Helen Branswell 🇨🇦 @helenbranswell.bsky.social · 14/02/2025
Doing the unthinkable: The deep cuts to the #CDC's workforce today are expected to decimate the Epidemic Intelligence Service, a program that has trained public health rapid responders for decades. Envy of the world. Poof! www.statnews.com/2025/02/14/t...
statnews.com
CDC cuts expected to devastate Epidemic Intelligence Service, a ‘crown jewel’ of public health
Members of the CDC's Epidemic Intelligence Service were warned Friday that many of them were about to be fired
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James Medlock @jdcmedlock.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
I'd rather continue to fund the banking police (who have returned billions to consumers) rather than giving everyone a check for $2.15
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Dominique Baker @bakerdphd.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
Here's why your education friends had a real rough one today. It's... it's the entire education data collection apparatus of the United States. www.edweek.org/policy-polit...
Screenshot of the article that reads: The Institute of Education Sciences, the research arm of the U.S. Department of Education, appears to be the latest agency in the crosshairs of President Donald Trump and billionaire Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency office.

Dozens of researchers and contractors received notices Feb. 10, directing them to immediately stop work on research projects and program evaluations financed by IES, a federal agency with a roughly $800 million budget, sources say.

It was not immediately clear which—or how many—of IES’ hundreds of contracts are affected, though one source estimated roughly 170.
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Amy Siskind @amysiskind.com · 10/02/2025
Posted around NYC, Chicago, DC and other cities. Be creative. Do something!
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Robert Maguire @robertmaguire.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
Everyone should be pointing out what is happening at CFPB. There is zero argument to be made here that this is being done to provide taxpayer value. The agency's budget is minuscule, averaging like $600 million/year, yet it has obtained $20 billion in payments from corporations to Americans
wsj.com
Exclusive | Russell Vought Taking Over as New Acting Head of CFPB
Trump fired the CFPB’s Biden-era leader earlier this week, putting in place Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who froze the agency’s work.
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Jon Mellon @jonmellon.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
New WP with @vincentab.bsky.social @ryancbriggs.net. We use LLMs and RAs to track publication trends in polisci. Here’s how subfields have changed in AJPS and JOP osf.io/v7fe8
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Max Kennerly @maxkennerly.bsky.social · 09/02/2025
Plainly unlawful and unconstitutional. No one can issue such an order; the President and his officers cannot simply ignore an entity created and funded by Congress.
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 06/02/2025
I’ve been studying civil rights protests for 20 years. With new mobilization against Trump’s agenda, I’m sharing a thread summarizing my research on how nonviolent & violent actions by 1960s activists and police influenced media, elites, public opinion & voters. 1/ www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Article title: Agenda Seeding: How 1960s Black Protests Moved Elites, Public Opinion and Voting

Article Abstract

How do stigmatized minorities advance agendas when confronted with hostile majorities? Elite theories of influence posit marginal groups exert little power. I propose the concept of agenda seeding to describe how activists use methods like disruption to capture the attention of media and overcome political asymmetries. Further, I hypothesize protest tactics influence how news organizations frame demands. Evaluating black-led protests between 1960 and 1972, I find nonviolent activism, particularly when met with state or vigilante repression, drove media coverage, framing, congressional speech, and public opinion on civil rights. Counties proximate to nonviolent protests saw presidential Democratic vote share increase 1.6–2.5%. Protester-initiated violence, by contrast, helped move news agendas, frames, elite discourse, and public concern toward “social control.” In 1968, using rainfall as an instrument, I find violent protests likely caused a 1.5–7.9% shift among whites toward Republicans and tipped the election. Elites may dominate political communication but hold no monopoly.
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Alissa Walker @awalkerinla.bsky.social · 02/02/2025
This also isn't the first "Marshall Plan" that Newsom has announced. In 2019 he said he would build 3.5 million new homes in California by 2025. He later downgraded his goal to 2.5 million homes. As of December 2024, the state has only permitted 650,000 housing units during his governorship
sfchronicle.com
Newsom set a major housing goal for 2025. Here's how far short the state has fallen
Despite all of Gavin Newsom's efforts, home permitting and construction have not been turbocharged.
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 02/02/2025
Every day that large media outlets fail to put words like “illegal” and “unconstitutional” into their headlines is a day they are choosing to normalize a national crisis
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Brenden Beck @brendenbeck.net · 30/01/2025
Should cities spend $$$ on police or social services if reducing crime is the goal? I summarize the research on this question in this now-un-paywalled article. www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...
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Brian Schatz @schatz.bsky.social · 26/01/2025
The story of this first week is corruption. Billionaires seated on the inaugural stage in front of the cabinet, crypto pump and dump, and the illegal firing of IGs. The media is acting like this is too chaotic and bewildering to interpret, but they are just afraid of sounding shrill. It’s corrupt.
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C. Kirabo Jackson @kirabojackson.bsky.social · 26/01/2025
This is highly relevant today. While we can debate the merits of specific 'DEI' policies—some may indeed be misguided—it’s undeniable that racial discrimination persists in this country. The evidence is clear for those willing to engage with it! bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/cea/written-...
bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov
Racial Discrimination in Contemporary America | CEA | The White House
Equal opportunity is the bedrock of American democracy, and our country’s diversity is one of our greatest strengths. However, in recognition of the fact that many Americans still face systemic barrie...
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