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jon ben-menachem

@jbenmenachem.com
20K followers 986 following 14K posts

criminalization, abolition, labor, politics, journalism—social science theory & methods too. sociologist. jbenmenachem.com

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Reposted by jon ben-menachem
jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 29/09/2026
"Replication crisis" reforms like preregistration & pre-analysis plans were developed to control false positives in experimental research. Does that work in observational studies? Our new paper in Sociological Methods & Research argues for a different approach. 🧵 journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
A Replication Framework for Observational Research: From Specification Restriction to Specification Expansion
Jonathan Ben-Menachem https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8092-0848 jbenmenachem@gmail.com, Ari Galper https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7909-8837, and Nic Fishman
Abstract
Sociology has remained relatively insulated from debates about the “replication crisis.” Heeding calls to consider replication more deeply, we introduce a distinction between two types of research reforms that have emerged in the wake of the crisis: specification-restricting and specification-expanding reforms. Specification restriction is often promoted as a way to increase the repeatability of research findings by controlling false positives. We argue that this statistical justification is less compelling in observational contexts—where the assumptions licensing false-positive control are harder to sustain and rigid ex ante analytical commitments can instead enshrine fragile specifications—than in experimental contexts. We further argue that apparently low replication rates do not necessarily imply a high prevalence of false positive findings. Instead, we propose a replication framework centered on specification-expanding reforms, stronger incentives for confirmatory research, and meta-analysis. This approach equips sociologists to assess the repeatability of findings and build a more cumulative discipline.
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 18h
I've reproduced this. interestingly, if you search 'mamdani talmud twitter', it does not appear in this way.
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Chris Sommerfeldt @c-sommerfeldt.bsky.social · 20h
New: Since early 2026, Mamdani has required the NYPD to seek his office's approval before deploying its Strategic Response Group to do arrests. While it's a significant oversight for Mamdani to exert, the policy's existence is politically awkward for him. www.politico.com/news/2026/09...
politico.com
Inside Mamdani’s fraught effort to rein in the NYPD unit he pledged to end
The mayor has quietly required the NYPD to seek his office’s permission before the unit conducts arrests.
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october "pre-order The Struggle Is Always Worth It now!" krausch @octoberk.bsky.social · 23h
this investigation on long COVID inside of prisons is out today at the Sick Times! I worked on this piece for months and am so grateful to the folks who shared their experiences with me. I'll write up a real thread a little later, but you can read it now: thesicktimes.org/2026/09/29/i...
thesicktimes.org
I interviewed five people with Long COVID in prison. They are invisible in the system. - The Sick Times
While there are no data sources on Long COVID in prison, experts suspect rates of the disease may be higher there than in the general population. They face high reinfection risks and poor access to me...
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CJ Ciaramella @cjciaramella.bsky.social · 22h
Everyone knows that staff are the biggest source of prison contraband, but banning books is way easier than pissing off the correctional officer unions.
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shawn @mulchy.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
the use of local surveillance tech to justify federal felony charges against martinez and ruiz isn’t especially remarkable on its own. yet many advocates say the case shows how easily private information can pass from one agency to another with seemingly little, if any, oversight or transparency.
chicagoreader.com
Feds tapped local surveillance networks in botched Chicago prosecutions - Chicago Reader
During their failed efforts to prosecute Marimar Martinez and Anthony Ruiz, federal authorities accessed a network of Chicagoland license plate readers and surveillance cameras.
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 29/09/2026
Recently heard that folks who work at/with Anthropic are having a lot of trouble finding internal support for labor economics research (that is: how does the tech affect employment and wages)
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 29/09/2026
"Replication crisis" reforms like preregistration & pre-analysis plans were developed to control false positives in experimental research. Does that work in observational studies? Our new paper in Sociological Methods & Research argues for a different approach. 🧵 journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
A Replication Framework for Observational Research: From Specification Restriction to Specification Expansion
Jonathan Ben-Menachem https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8092-0848 jbenmenachem@gmail.com, Ari Galper https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7909-8837, and Nic Fishman
Abstract
Sociology has remained relatively insulated from debates about the “replication crisis.” Heeding calls to consider replication more deeply, we introduce a distinction between two types of research reforms that have emerged in the wake of the crisis: specification-restricting and specification-expanding reforms. Specification restriction is often promoted as a way to increase the repeatability of research findings by controlling false positives. We argue that this statistical justification is less compelling in observational contexts—where the assumptions licensing false-positive control are harder to sustain and rigid ex ante analytical commitments can instead enshrine fragile specifications—than in experimental contexts. We further argue that apparently low replication rates do not necessarily imply a high prevalence of false positive findings. Instead, we propose a replication framework centered on specification-expanding reforms, stronger incentives for confirmatory research, and meta-analysis. This approach equips sociologists to assess the repeatability of findings and build a more cumulative discipline.
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 29/09/2026
How did I not realize that Cortex was touring
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Nicole Bedera @nbedera.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
For every story like the Cornell gang rape, there are thousands more that couldn’t make it into the light. I wrote about a few dozen of them at one university in On the Wrong Side. The university’s treatment of survivors is eerily similar to what Jane Doe at Cornell experienced.
bookshop.org
On the Wrong Side: How Universities Protect Perpetrators and Betray Survivors of Sexual Violence
"Bedera dispels deeply ingrained campus rape myths and puts the innate violence of the campus sexual assault reporting process into focus."--Jezebel"The book's grim conclusions are tempered with a hop...
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 28/09/2026
What do you think is a fair % of rent to charge to a mouse?
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 28/09/2026
That user is going to be shocked when they hear that people are watching Netflix instead of cable.
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 28/09/2026
“Charts”—how long have we been in the streaming era now? 15 years?
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 27/09/2026
every new fact i learn about san francisco these days is like a horror movie plot point
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tagerai.bsky.social @tagerai.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Like I’m sorry, Steve Salaita is not winning this award. And if he somehow did, it would be to balance out a disgraced white supremacist post doc who hounded a black professor to death.
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Nicholas Slayton @nslayton.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Incredible sunset in Los Angeles tonight.
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Weird Alger Hiss 🎉 𓅳 @itsjoelokay.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
uh, let me be clear, *most unclear and wishy-washy drivel conceivable*
C-SPAN
@cspan

Former President Obama says Democrats made a mistake by making goals materialistic and instrumental: "What people are starved for at the moment is the ability to tell a moral and ethical story about how we live together in this moment."
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 26/09/2026
The whole news cycle yesterday was STORM STORM STORM and today it isn't even fookin raining
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Dr Grace S Peng @gspeng.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
"One meticulous study of a New York school outbreak in 1974 found that a second-grader with measles infected 28 other students in 14 classrooms because measles can spread through ventilation systems."
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Heather Cherone @heathercherone.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Ctrl-F “Laquan McDonald” <Not found>
nytimes.com
Rahm Emanuel Makes His 2026 Play
The longtime Democratic insider has emerged as a behind-the-scenes force in his party’s push to win back Congress. After that, he’ll think about 2028.
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Ingrid Burrington @lifewinning.com · 26/09/2026
Accountability journalism really doing "we wanted to see what's really going on with heroin so we did a lot of heroin"
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 26/09/2026
So uh was this grant funded or reader funded
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brent sewer socialist🚰🌹 @therealbrent.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Absolutely unreal pre-Nor’easter sunset in NYC tonight
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Anna O. Law @unlawfulentries.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Few minutes later
Sun setting over city street and buildings
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jules @awawa.pics · 26/09/2026
good lord @weatherishappening.com
most incredible sunset i've ever seen in my life 
constitution beach east boston
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Arthur Gies (he/him) @aegies.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
The sunset in Manhattan is a Lot tonight. This is not edited.
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brad @bradiscranky.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
errybody post nyc skies now
Purty pink skyMore purty pink skyYet more purty pink sky
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Stephen Nuñez @socio-steve.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Yeah this doesn't capture it. It was definitely unusual
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jaydeedubyu.bsky.social @jaydeedubyu.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
from LGA terminal C
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 25/09/2026
I can't get good pictures of it, but the light in NYC right now is exquisite
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Aaron Reichlin-Melnick @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Mahmoud Khalil filed a motion to reopen his case in front of the Board of Immigrations Appeals on the grounds that the process was preordained (true) and thus denied him the neutral magistrates required by due process (true) and they responded with basically “how DARE you cite the FAKE NEWS at us.”
As the primary new evidence in support of the motion, the respondent presents a May 8, 2026, New York Times article ("Article"), a May 13, 2026, affidavit from Andrea Sáenz ("Sáenz Affidavit"), a May 13, 2026, affidavit from Dana Leigh Marks ("Marks Affidavit"), and a May 14, 2026, affidavit from Ryan R. Wood. In general, a domestic media article consisting primarily of opinions with minimal (and anonymously-sourced) facts will almost never be sufficient evidence to warrant reopening. Nearly every well-known domestic media outlet operates with a particular ideological valence which must be accounted for in assessing the persuasiveness of its reporting and its evidentiary weight. See, e.g., AllSides Media Bias Chart, AllSides, https://www.allsides.com/media-bias/media-bias-chart (last visited Sept. 25, 2026); cf. Davis v. Alaska, 415 U.S. 308, 316 (1974) ("The partiality of a witness... is always relevant as discrediting the witness and affecting the weight of his testimony.") (citation modified); see also, e.g., John K. Maciver Inst. for Pub. Policy,
Inc. v. Evers, 994 F.3d 602, 611 (7th Cir. 2021)(recognizing that some media outlets are traditionally viewed as conservative leaning, such as the Washington Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox News, and Washington Examiner, whereas others are viewed as liberal leaning, such as the Capitol Times, New York Times, and Huttington Post). Media coverage of judicial decisions warrants particular skepticism because it is often focused on perceived nonlegal issues rather than the applicable law and legal reasoning actually at issue before the court. See, e.g., Barry Sullivan and Christina Camody Tilley, Supreme Court Journalism: From Law to Spectacle?, 77 Wash. & Lee L. Rev. 343, 343-344, 437-442 (2020) (concluding that contemporary media coverage of the Supreme Court by newspapers including the New York Times focuses primarily on the justices' presumed political and policy preferences rather than the legal issues they confront in the case before them, which can undermine public confidence in the Court as an institution). To be sure, "[a] publication can be accurate but still biased." AllSides Media Bias Chart, supra. But a publication that is (1)based on anonymous factual sourcing* supplemented by opinions of only individuals whose biases are aligned with that of the narrative of the story and who lack any firsthand knowledge of the facts at issue, (2) contains disputed facts, and (3) is clearly biased against the agency and in favor of the subject of the case warrants minimal, if any, weight, and is unlikely to be persuasive enough to warrant reopening. Further, taking action based on such an article would likely violate an Appellate Immigration Judge's ethical and professional duty to act in a neutral and detached manner. See Ethics and Professionalism Guide for Members of the Board of Immigration
Appeals,
SeC.
VIII
(May
4,
2011);
https://www.justice.gov/d9/pages/attachments/2017/08/24/bia_ethics and professionalism guide for board members.pdf ("A Board Member should not be swayed by partisan interests or public clamor.") (emphasis added).
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 25/09/2026
Does a major financial institution have such incompetent lawyers that they couldn't foresee this issue?
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 25/09/2026
Laïcité exists in Quebec? I thought this was strictly a French national thing
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rax ‘levon honkers’ king @raxkingisdead.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
(me, next in line to be interviewed after you, spaghetti bolognese spilling out of every pocket of my cargo pants) he's right you look like an asshole
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 25/09/2026
What?
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 25/09/2026
reaching the point where "workflow" gives me the ick
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Dominique Baker @bakerdphd.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
A lot of universities will be facing big deficits and looking to cure what ails them. I just want them to be thoughtful about it.
Screenshot of article which reads: At the same time, new job-focused majors may not be sustainable — and can even backfire. Dominique Baker, an associate professor of education and public policy at the University of Delaware, pointed to the rise in computer-science degrees in the 2010s. At the time, they seemed like the best way to secure a high-paying salary after graduation, she said. But with the rise of generative artificial intelligence, computer-science jobs are increasingly hard to find, and enrollment in such programs is falling significantly.
“When you tie the viability, the financial viability in particular, of an institution really tightly to jobs creation on that scale,” especially as a four-year institution, she said, “you have to be really careful, because you can find that in 10 years that program that you poured all your money into — worthless.”
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Heba Gowayed هبة جويد @hebagowayed.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
About to board a flight from Chicago to New York, and TSA is at our gate checking IDs. I have never seen this before.
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 24/09/2026
that is quite the choice of headline
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Louis Römer @lromeranth.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
I remember when Netanyahu said, when NYT asked him about what 9/11 means for Israel, “It’s very good.”
nytimes.com
A DAY OF TERROR: THE ISRAELIS; Spilled Blood Is Seen as Bond That Draws 2 Nations Closer (Published 2001)
Israeli officials and most Palestinian leaders, including Yasir Arafat, condemn terrorist attack on United States, but Israelis also take cold comfort in concluding that Americans will now share more ...
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lastpositivist.bsky.social @lastpositivist.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
At 45k followers I will reveal exactly what terminology correctly carves AI at its joints.
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 24/09/2026
sharing with screenshot of quoted post for posterity -- kind of amusing overlap here with the trump admin's crackdown on the word "bias" in statistical research

Emily M. Bender

@emilymbender.bsky.social

Follow
To say "the model shows bias" not only anthropomorphizes (we found our examples by doing a close linguistic study of various writing about "AI", "showing bias" is related to other words that attribute cognition to the software) 

>> 
4/5
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 24/09/2026
the music in this ad kills what is otherwise pretty effective communication
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 24/09/2026
this new vertical video trend of “I react to X number with repeated instances of the same face” got old after about three iterations
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 24/09/2026
It has already been pointed out by others, but the spatial distribution of econ impact of higher education decline will be very uneven.
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 24/09/2026
After two years of doing calf raises with no obvious results, I am just going to stop doing them forever
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 24/09/2026
The impact of subscription business models on local news is a real double-edged sword. For example, my research finds that subscription metrics can encourage local papers to pursue investigative stories on local criminal legal policy. But, people who can afford to subscribe are a particular group.
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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 24/09/2026
the new fire emblem is basically persona 6: tactics
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The Washington Post @washingtonpost.com · 23/09/2026
The owner of a top BBQ joint in Texas decided to cut brisket, the top-selling item, from the menu rather than institute a $10 markup for customers. The decision was fueled not just by the skyrocketing price of brisket but by inflation.
washingtonpost.com
A top Texas smokehouse is cutting brisket from its menu amid soaring beef prices
Butter’s BBQ in Sinton, Texas, says brisket is eating up 70 percent of its total grocery costs.
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