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NBER @nber.org · 18h

On the 250th anniversary of Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations: What ignited humanity’s ascent from millennia of stagnation, and what are the roots of global inequality? From @GalorOded www.nber.org/papers/w35799

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NBER @nber.org · 19h

Guideline and physician performance in atrial fibrillation depend on how bleeding harms vary across patients; robust treatment rules can perform well across plausible harm assumptions, from @jabaluck, @LeilaEcon, and David C. Chan Jr www.nber.org/papers/w35798

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NBER @nber.org · 20h

Studying how property rights uncertainty affects prices and speculative activities in the housing markets using a natural comparison of full and limited property houses in Shenzhen, from @HanmingF, Jing Wu, and Vincent Yao www.nber.org/papers/w35797

NBER @nber.org · 21h

For recent college graduates, unemployment rates did not spike in summer 2026 relative to previous years’ summer months possibly due to AI effects, from @RobertFairlie6 and Jane Wu www.nber.org/papers/w35796

NBER @nber.org · 29/09/2026

NBER @nber.org · 22h

Green innovation rises in downturns even as non-green innovation falls. A model matched to this evidence implies larger, greener subsidy effects in recessions, from @drkaenzig, @maxkonradt, Lixing Wang, and @DonghaiZhang3 www.nber.org/papers/w35795

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NBER @nber.org · 23h

Open call for papers: Race and Stratification in the Economy. The conference will be held on April 2, 2027, in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Submissions deadline 11:59pm (EST) December 10, 2026. More info www.nber.org/race-and-str...

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NBER @nber.org · 23h

Anticipated regulation can spur permitting without accelerating investment, as demonstrated by a Colorado case-study. This identifies a novel channel for regulatory leakage, from Anna French and Nicholas Vreugdenhil www.nber.org/papers/w35794

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Introducing the expanded Global Repository of Income Dynamics, a database of harmonized administrative-data statistics on income inequality, volatility, and mobility across 26 countries. Led by Fatih Guvenen, Luigi Pistaferri, Giovanni L. Violante, with country teams worldwide. www.grid-database.org

grid-database.org

GRID - Global Repository of Income Dynamics

GRID is an open-access database built from administrative records to study income inequality and income dynamics across the globe.

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The Macroeconomic Effect of AI: Sizing the Software Engineering Channel

AI's economic impact? By the end of 2025, markets priced in 32.6 percent higher software engineering productivity, implying 3.6–6.5 percent higher GDP. Both more than doubled by mid-2026, from Alex Blumenfeld, @JADHazell, @ChenLian92, and Andreas Schaab www.nber.org/papers/w35793

nber.org

Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers,…

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Korea’s 1993 higher education reform markedly increased college completion, which later led to a substantial mortality reduction among the students’ aging parents, from Ah-Reum Lee, William H. Dow, and Jacqueline M. Torres Torres www.nber.org/papers/w35792

Remote work post-Covid boosts employment and lowers commute time for disabled and older workers in the UK but comes with lower wages, from Ian Burn, Melissa D. Gentry, and Joanna Lahey www.nber.org/papers/w35791

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Euro cash changeovers are used to test price-setting theories. The moving-boundary problem is solved analytically. Historical data from six countries support state-dependent pricing, from Fernando E. Alvarez, @dargente05, @albertocavallo, and Francesco Lippi www.nber.org/papers/w35790

The text of children's books convey a broad emotional range but images mostly show happiness/calm—a mismatch that consumer demand for "positive" imagery may reinforce, from @aadukia, Matthew Bonci, Paula Dastres Gallardo, @emileigharrison, Jake Nicoll, and @TeodoraSzasz www.nber.org/papers/w35789

An LLM workflow that reproduces, improves, and extends economics research has been applied to over 4,000 published replication packages, from Matthew Schwartz, Isaiah Andrews, and Jesse M. Shapiro www.nber.org/papers/w35782

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Proposing to use quasi-exogenous variation in market structure to estimate equilibrium pricing policy functions, from Gautam Gowrisankaran, Christopher D. Bruegge, and Alex Gross www.nber.org/papers/w35787

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Using plausibly exogenous veterans’ payments, new evidence shows stimulus checks generate large, hump-shaped increases in consumption, with multipliers above 2 after a year, from Joao Guerreiro, Jonathon Hazell, Diego R. Känzig, and Ed Manuel www.nber.org/papers/w35786

Studying how the US-China trade war has reshaped global trade patterns, creating significant spillovers to third countries, from Pol Antràs, Adrian Kulesza, and Andrea F. Presbitero www.nber.org/papers/w35785

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When a spouse becomes incapacitated, older adults use substantially more formal care and become less sensitive to its price, revealing the value of spousal care, from Itzik Fadlon, Tal Gross, Alex Hoagland, and Timothy Layton www.nber.org/papers/w35784

In a new theory of bundling frictions, increasing productivity of cognitive skills explains changing patterns in within occupation wage inequality in the US, from Chris Edmond and Simon Mongey www.nber.org/papers/w35783

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Studying how aggregate financial conditions shape firm insurance and, through it, labor income risk, from Maarten Meeuwis, Dimitris Papanikolaou, and Lawrence D.W. Schmidt www.nber.org/papers/w35781

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New evidence shows that incorporation capital requirements substantially reduce entrepreneurial entry without screening on entrepreneurial quality, from Annika Bacher, Andreas Fagereng, Marius A. K. Ring, and Ella Getz Wold www.nber.org/papers/w35780

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Considering official and alternative data sources for measuring and projecting the role of US manufacturing in the global semiconductor manufacturing industry, from David M. Byrne, Robert J. Kurtzman, and Heidi L. Williams www.nber.org/papers/w35779

When regulation is fragmented across countries, foreign political frictions determine whether corporate stewardship or policy advocacy better addresses global externalities, from Robin Döttling, Doron Levit, Nadya Malenko, and Magdalena Rola-Janicka www.nber.org/papers/w35778

Discussing how immigration affects identity, and the implications for politics, from Vasiliki Fouka and Marco Tabellini www.nber.org/papers/w35777

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They find that high school courses exposing students to careers in education did not increase entry into the profession, likely because course takers do not enroll in college, from Danielle Sanderson Edwards and @matthewakraft.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w35776

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Firms affected by interest deductibility limitations experience significant declines in patenting and a narrowing of the technological scope of their patent portfolios, from Xinru Chen, Mara Faccio, Stefano Manfredonia, and Jin Xu www.nber.org/papers/w35775

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Migrants from Austria to Germany and those from Germany to Austria both earn higher wages after moving. Gains are largest for those who stay the longest in the destination, from Weber, Card, Dauth, Frimmel, Schmieder, and Winter-Ebmer www.nber.org/papers/w35774

Fertility delays compound across generations to raise age at first grandmotherhood, from Dora L. Costa and Matthew E. Kahn www.nber.org/papers/w35773

After CA adopted workplace heat protections, injuries on hot days fell 15–27 percent for outdoor workers, from Olesya Fomenko, Melissa McInerney, and Sebastian Negrusa www.nber.org/papers/w35772

US life insurance integrated without decentralizing: from 1888 to 1940 control of premium shifted between regions while the national share kept in-state barely moved, from Pawel Janas www.nber.org/papers/w35771

Studying how advertising claims direct consumers to different customer experiences, and how prices change the available evidence, from @joshgans.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w35770

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Open call for paper submissions: The Economics of Community Colleges conference April 6-7, 2028 in Cambridge, MA. Full information www.nber.org/economics-co...

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Geographic breadth did not stabilize US life insurers between 1888 and 1940: the lower volatility and higher survival that came with expansion reflected scale, not diversification, from Pawel Janas www.nber.org/papers/w35769

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Stablecoins may extend the dollar’s global reach, but history shows their stability and dollar dominance ultimately depend on credible institutions, not technology, from Michael D. Bordo and Carolyn Wilkins www.nber.org/papers/w35768

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Arguing that China’s distinctive lending structure—bilateral rollover risk without default risk—disciplines recipient countries' borrowing on international markets, from Illenin O. Kondo, César Sosa-Padilla, and Zachary J. Swaziek www.nber.org/papers/w35767

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Movements in short- and medium-term yields largely reflect changing interest-rate expectations, which are systematically inconsistent across maturities and horizons, from @pooyamolavi.bsky.social, Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, and Andrea Vedolin www.nber.org/papers/w35766

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Featured in the latest Digest: Artificial Intelligence and Hedge Fund Investing www.nber.org/digest/20260...

New evidence from the 2023 Panel Study of Income Dynamics shows family-structure disparities in young-adult poverty have narrowed, while gaps in college completion persist, from Melissa Schettini Kearney, Phillip B. Levine, and Alden Q. Barson www.nber.org/papers/w35765

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Reporting on two randomized field experiments that incentivized thousands of Oregon homeowners to participate in pre-existing fire department programs to reduce wildfire risk, from Patrick Baylis, Judson Boomhower, Bob Horton, and Chris Mulverhill www.nber.org/papers/w35764

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Having an additional child does leads to higher remote-work rates among women with children before COVID but not after, from Benjamin W. Cowan and Mohamed Hafis Zida www.nber.org/papers/w35763

Across 1,200 startup acquisitions by eight tech firms, innovation rises before the deal, acquired patents gain citations after it, but 31 percent of target employees leave within a year, from @florianederer.bsky.social, Regina Seibel, and Timothy Simcoe www.nber.org/papers/w35762

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Using a representative sample of Americans to conduct and analyze a survey on gender attitudes, from Joshua T. Dean, Christine L. Exley, Muriel Niederle, and Heather Sarsons www.nber.org/papers/w35761

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Firms differ in their orientation toward employee well-being. Workers who move to firms with higher well-being scores take more sickness absences, without changing healthcare usage, from Riccardo Di Francesco, @instrumenthull.bsky.social, and Seetha Menon www.nber.org/papers/w35760

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Free natural gas during Georgia’s pandemic lockdown increased household consumption by 2–7 percent, a modest response to an extreme price drop, from Anna Alberini, Levan Bezhanishvili, Milan Ščasný, and @roberton.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w35759

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Historically, left-wing populism is linked to deficit monetization and higher inflation. Today, central banks with that legacy respond more aggressively to inflation expectations, from Luis I. Jácome, Nicolás E. Magud, Samuel Pienknagura, and Martín Uribe www.nber.org/papers/w35758

For each k≥4, there is a spectrum network where every station exit saves a channel and no single interference relaxation does (+solved 56-year-old Dirac's Conjecture), from @alex8chan.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w35757

Using data from Singapore to study whether pro-integrity social norms can substitute for formal enforcement in deterring misconduct by public officials, from Tomasz Piskorski, Amit Seru, Jian Zhang, and Chun Zhao www.nber.org/papers/w35756

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Presenting causal evidence that state-level school finance reforms increase macroeconomic output, from C. Kirabo Jackson www.nber.org/papers/w35755

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Subsidized access to appreciating public assets in rapidly growing economies can serve as a powerful instrument for intergenerational redistribution, from Kaiji Chen, Hanming Fang, and Yang Tang www.nber.org/papers/w35754