iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

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Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 28/09/2026

Sick of work this Monday lunchtime? Or perhaps hungover from one too many on the first night of Labour Conference? If so, distract yourself with ✨ 𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗱-𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹 𝗠𝗥𝗣 𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰 𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 ✨ Full interactive at: jack-bailey.co.uk/ward2024

Screenshot showing interactive ward level MRP estimates at the 2024 UK general election.

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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Three in five people will not vote based on free speech at the next election. 🤦‍♂️

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⤵️ @bryce.lol · 27/09/2026

If we shadows have offended, Think but this, and all is mended, That you have but slumber’d here While these visions did appear. And this weak and idle theme No more yielding but a dream, Gentles, do not reprehend: if you pardon, we will mend; And, as I am an honest Puck, Show is over, off you fuck.

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YouGov @yougov.co.uk · 24/09/2026

YouGov's September 2026 MRP projects that Labour would be the largest party in a hung parliament, were an election held tomorrow Labour: 241 (-170 from 2024) Conservatives: 130 (+9) Reform UK: 123 (+118) Lib Dems: 71 (-1) SNP: 40 (+31) Plaid Cymru: 15 (+11) Greens: 9 (+5) Others: 3 (-3)

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Elizabeth Zelle @kohizeri.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

"the assessment did not consider the crocodiles" is my new metaphor for people choosing to just ignore the data point that doesn't agree with them

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Anthony Wells @anthonyjwells.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Mum just back from a visit back to Harrogate

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Anthony Wells @anthonyjwells.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Today in research that fails Twyman's Law - 33% of 24-35 year olds have wills 35% of people have tried to order takeaway food to a train seat No, no they haven't. Obviously they haven't, and you're making yourself look foolish. Now stop it.

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Hetan Shah @hetanshah.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Hooray we finally have a new National Statistician! This is exciting news for UK data and statistics. (HT @gavinfreeguard.com) www.gov.uk/government/n...

gov.uk

André Loranger appointed as new United Kingdom National Statistician

André Loranger has been appointed as the National Statistician for the United Kingdom

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Anthony Wells @anthonyjwells.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Apropos of nothing. Whenever I see a finding in a newspaper story - normally a PR puff piece - that massively, obviously, immediately fails the Twyman test then it always comes from the same company.

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Chris Butler @chrisbutlerpol.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Very surprised and delighted that my lead-authored article with @robfordmancs.bsky.social & @martamiori.bsky.social has won the BJPIR John Peterson Best Article Prize for 2025! If only I could find a uni to employ me I would keep trying to produce research at this level 🤣

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

solid kicker from the NYT polling crew www.nytimes.com/2026/08/18/p...

Without further explanation, the statement about the experiment ended with a message that stood in contrast to the confused reaction that followed from people throughout the polling world: “Thank you for your understanding.”

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Anthony Wells @anthonyjwells.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

This is odd. There was a supposed new polling company in the US calling itself Median Strategies. It published polls in Nevada, Los Angeles & Wisconsin, and got some pick up by at least one paper, by some aggregator accounts and by one of the candidates it gave a lead to.

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Twlldun @twlldun.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

Photo editors: combine exam results day with the Clacton by-election day by showing a group of elderly white voters leaping into the air clutching a ballot paper.

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Dave Hill @davehillonlondon.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

NEW. A further corrective to that confected, arrant soufflé' of a 'vertical drinking' row: www.onlondon.co.uk/westminster-... #london #soho #westend

onlondon.co.uk

A further corrective to the confected 'vertical drinking' row

The entire thing is completely absurd

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Emma Monk @monkemma.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

Do you want to hazard a guess at what this “jaw-dropping” list of freebies included? What luxuries asylum seekers might be being given “for free” in Thetford? Xboxes? Plasma TVs? iPhones? Ferraris? Let's take a look👀 🧵 1/22

Express headline: The jaw-dropping list of everything asylum seekers in Thetford were 'given for free'.

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

local woman feels slightly vindicated for several weeks spent steering colleagues away from state primary polling that was a) sponsored or conducted by groups with vested interests b) done on the cheap c) done by people with very little track record d) all of the above, yes

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Anthony Wells @anthonyjwells.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

My dad's dad was a milkman, but in 1926 he wasn't yet, so I'd be a shop assistant in a fishmongers. On my mum's side, I'd be a Salvation Army Officer... though in less than a year I'd be forced to resign because I wanted to marry a Catholic, which was a definite no.

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👻madeline bOoOoOoOodent👻 @oldenoughtosay.com · 29/07/2026

I clicked thru to the ‘proof of human authorship’ and for the record, if you wrote a 345 page book in 19 hours, no the fuck you didn’t

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Dan Neidle @danneidle.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

Seen that opinion poll in which millionaires say they're in favour of a wealth tax on millionaires? It's an absolute masterclass in how to get the polling result that you want. And the detail shows the opposite of what we're told it shows. Thread:

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Sam Macrory @sammacrory.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

This is a VERY useful database 👇

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Jessica Elgot @jessicaelgot.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

The latest one is how he had a baby and how he will neglect his children to campaign as a comedy character. Guys?! He doesn’t campaign? He literally turns up on the night. Just trying thinking about it for more than two seconds. Do you think he goes door knocking with his head in a bin?

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Sam Gad Jones @samgadjones.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

New joy unlocked: reading about Count Binface - Graf Mülltonnengesicht, comte Face de Poubelle, il conte Binface etc etc - in European papers.

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👻 Jack Djinn Wail 🧞 @jacktindale.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

STOP INTERVIEWING RANDOM MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC WHO ARE HANGING AROUND THE TOWN CENTRE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON YOU MAY AS WELL ASK A CAT FOR HOW REFLECTIVE OF PUBLIC OPINION IT IS www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

bbc.co.uk

What do Farage's Clacton constituents think of his resignation?

People living in Clacton share contrasting feelings of frustration and support towards Nigel Farage.

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Anthony Wells @anthonyjwells.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

In contrast, there have been ten transfers from one Tory Chancellor to another. There have been six in the last ten years.

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Kiran Stacey @kiranstacey.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

Superb bit of political history from @joedromey.bsky.social - in the last 50 years, we've only once had a transfer from one Labour chancellor to another. Maybe that's why this tussle has become so intense.

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Robert Saunders @robertsaunders.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

1) It's not clear leadership contests actually do the things claimed for them. Johnson, Truss & Starmer all won leadership elections, & Sunak fought one. This did not expose their weaknesses, bolster their authority or test their ideas. But it did see them making big promises they later dropped.

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Anthony Wells @anthonyjwells.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

Guardian have now corrected their story (without reflecting that in the article). Turns out those are actually the recalled 2024 votes for the people who took part in the exercise. Doh! www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

theguardian.com

Makerfield voters see cost of living and high street among top priorities, poll shows

Exclusive: Voters value changes ‘so we can afford to actually have a life’, as well as immigration policy and honesty in politicians

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Anthony Wells @anthonyjwells.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

Gorton and Denton FindOutNow were (correctly) criticised for releasing a poll with a sample of 143. JLP have released voting intention figures (quoted to a decimal place as well!) from Makerfield based on 112 people but called it's a "focus group". www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

theguardian.com

Cost of living and high street among top priorities for Makerfield voters, poll shows

Exclusive: Research showing Andy Burnham holding slim lead finds honesty in politicians and immigration also rank as important

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Emma Monk @monkemma.bsky.social · 30/05/2026

As misleading headlines go, that has to be up there with some of the worst! As is the claim that "Immigration is fuelling mass unemployment among under-25s." The "shocking new study" does NOT show that at all 🙄 🧵 1/21

Express Headline:

Twenty-seven young foreign workers hired for every one Brit as immigration fuels unemployment crisis.
Immigration is fuelling mass unemployment among under-25s, according to a shocking new study.

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Robert Hutton @roberthutton.co.uk · 20/05/2026

Laughing to hide the tears: my SKETCH of Today at PMQs. thecritic.co.uk/laug...

As Keir Starmer rose to begin Prime Minister’s Questions, an alarm sounded through the House of Commons: “WARNING! PRIME MINISTERIAL JOKE IS APPROACHING.” A clerk in a high-vis vest ran along the front bench putting out orange cones. Up in the gallery, we donned hard hats and secured loose items.

“Mr Speaker,” Starmer began, as around him Labour MPs tightened their seatbelts, held hands and offered silent prayers. “It would be remiss of me not to comment on one of Manchester’s great heroes moving on after almost a decade.” This joke had been cast in iron in Britain’s last remaining foundry, and shipped down the M1 on a low loader at speeds never exceeding 25 mph. A team of Downing Street wheezemasters in dayglo vests were now signalling as a crane lowered it into position. “WARNING! PRIME MINISTERIAL JOKE IS APPROACHING.”

The Labour leader took a breath. “So, let me congratulate Pep Guardiola on all his success at Manchester City.” Boom! As the dust cleared, we looked about to check

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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

"The focus on MRPs throughout the 2026 Holyrood campaign led to fewer polls, cost more money, and produced erratic claims due to some poor, or at least not transparent, methodological practices. The campaign highlights that whilst MRPs can add value, they remain a...fallible source of information."

electionanalysis.uk

MRPs: A false dawn - UK Election Analysis

Dr Eoghan Kelly Postdoctoral Researcher leading the Mile End Institute’s, Queen Mary University of London’s Polling London Project. He has lectured on quantitative methods at Queen’s University, Belfa...

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James David Griffiths @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 New Blog 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 A short piece on how the new Senedd voting system worked! How many votes did it take to win a seat? Was it proportional? Who benefitted? Where did parties win support? And what would it take to win one more seat? If you're interested: blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal... 🧵👇

blogs.cardiff.ac.uk

All change! The 2026 Senedd Election

Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.

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Marta Miori @martamiori.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

This crossed my mind a lot when looking at the locals in 2025, where the raw votes in many wards suggested either significant switching from left to right, or Reform gaining non-voters and Labour voters staying home. The individual-level data then showed that intra-bloc switching was low... 1/2

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James Ball @jamesrball.com · 08/05/2026

Results so far: • We don't know much yet • Bad but not worst-case scenario for Labour • Good for Reform, but in line with polls • Too early to say much on Greens • Don't jump to conclusions on Lab/Reform switchers • These are bad results for Tories! Whatever they say! • We don't know much yet

thenewworld.co.uk

What we know about the 2026 local elections so far

Very bad for Labour, very good for Reform - but perhaps not quite as extreme as some thought

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 01/05/2026

If I had to say what I think is the most important thing happening in British politics right now, I’d say it’s the following phenomenon, explained here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=GvhI... With huge thanks to @yougov.co.uk @martamiori.bsky.social and @itvnews.bsky.social Please share! Thank you!

youtube.com

How the May elections could overthrow Britain’s two-party system forever

YouTube video by ITV News

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Jane Green @profjanegreen.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Btw, please do follow @martamiori.bsky.social for the best graphs in the UK elections business (yes, I am biased…) and for the insight and all-round brilliance.

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Jonathan Simons @jonathansimons.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

Which, tangentially, allows me to share my all time favourite GB story showing how he never ever deviated from being his one true self (this via Ed Balls’ book)

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John Self @john-self.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

Incredible chart (from otherwise depressing news story about bad advice being given to new parents) showing how cot deaths fell by 50% in the first year after the 'Back to Sleep' campaign was launched, and have continued to fall since. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Chart of sudden infant deaths. Numbers are between 1,000 and 1,500 every years from 1979 to 1990, then after the 1991 introduction of the 'Back to Sleep' campaign (advising parents to put their baby to sleep on its back), fall immediately to below 500 and are now around the 200-a-year mark.

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It's Pipes, Mum! Pipes is here! @scriblit.bsky.social · 02/05/2026

WHEN THE Bird in your room represents all your gloom Nevermoré When you're trying to grieve but that corvid won't leave Nevermoré

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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 02/05/2026

Lots of misunderstanding about Wales’s new electoral system — how it works, what it takes to get elected, and especially around tactical voting. Partly to sort my own thinking, I put together something that tries to make sense of it. Proper write-up coming soon. jaclarner.github.io/jaclarner/bl...

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Anthony Wells @anthonyjwells.bsky.social · 24/04/2026

The big gender gap on attitudes to nuclear power is something I've written about before (and often comes as a surprise to people), but I've never seen this international comparison on nuclear gender gaps before bsky.app/profile/rich...

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Andrew Teale @andrewteale.me.uk · 23/04/2026

A gold star to Laurence Williams of Bexley, who is standing for election this May for the Greens - which I think is his tenth political party. It takes some political journey to stand for both UKIP and Rejoin EU. candidates.democracyclub.org.uk/person/6615/...

1994 Bexley council election: independent candidate for Sidcup East ward
1998 Bexley council election: Official Monster Raving Loony Party candidate for Sidcup East ward
2002 Bexley council election: UKIP candidate for Cray Meadows ward
2006 Bexley council election: independent candidate for Cray Meadows ward
2010 general election: English Democrats candidate for Erith and Thamesmead
2010 Bexley council election: English Democrats candidate for Cray Meadows ward
2014 European Parliament election: 5th on Christian Peoples Alliance list for London
2014 Bexley council election: Christian Peoples Alliance candidate for Cray Meadows ward
2015 general election: Christian Party candidate for Old Bexley and Sidcup
2018 Bexley council election: Liberal candidate for Sidcup ward
2019 general election: Gwlad candidate for Vale of Glamorgan
2021 Senedd election: Gwlad candidate for Monmouth, and second on Gwlad list for South Wales East
2022 Bexley council election: SDP candidate for Sidcup ward
2024 London Assembly election: 10th on Rejoin EU list
2026 Bexley council election: Green Party candidate for Sidcup ward

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Andrew Teale @andrewteale.me.uk · 10/04/2026

Full marks for creativity to Umesh Kumar, who put in nomination papers to stand for Hounslow council in Heston East ward for the Lib Dems - and also to stand in Heston West ward for Reform UK. Unfortunately multiple candidacies aren't allowed these days, and he's been disqualified in both wards.

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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 27/03/2026

A good thread (of course)... 🧵

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Maria Sobolewska @profsob.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

Come to the best conference on elections and all things public opinion and parties!

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YouGov @yougov.co.uk · 10/03/2026

How does YouGov conduct voting intention polling? @anthonyjwells.bsky.social s provides a walkthrough of the key steps we take to provide the new vote share figures each week yougov.com/en-gb/articl...

yougov.com

How YouGov conducts voting intention polling

A guide to YouGov voting intention polling

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