iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 14/10/2026

Updating my slide-deck for tomorrow's internal-party-politics class. I suspect the gap between member-sourced and donor-sourced income will be dwarfed for Reform when I repeat this task in a years' time and the Ben Delo donation appears in the 2026 accounts filing.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 23/09/2026

Today is Bisexual visibility day. Remember to take special care of all the Bisexual Kings in your life. They are far more susceptible to penalties on the dating market than Bisexual Queens.... Girls can kiss girls, but boys can't kiss boys. @ejprjournal.bsky.social doi.org/10.1017/S147...

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 22/09/2026

Bivariate regressions and less than 2K words? Your first year undergrads will thank you. doi.org/10.1332/2515... I'll even throw in an infographic explainer video.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 22/09/2026

If fielding more women candidates is supposed to attract more women voters specifically, that definitely doesn’t work. The gender gap was *larger* in those constituencies where Reform ran a woman.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 22/09/2026

Comparing success measured in different ways (winning, vote share, being the runner up, or beating the Tories) there is no descriptive evidence that far-right women performed better than far-right men. This ‘null’ is not because women are placed in tougher constituencies as sacrificial lambs

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 22/09/2026

Far right parties strategically increase the (descriptive) representation of women assuming it helps them win votes in general and, in particular, from women. Does it work? In this short descriptive piece, I show the answer in the case of Reform UK is a clear ‘no’ doi.org/10.1332/2515...

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 18/09/2026

If you are unsure what #EPOP2026 panel to attend tomorrow, I can suggest dropping in to Flex 1 tomorrow afternoon (14:00-15:30). You can hear me make as many phallic puns as I can while explaining why size matters for gender attitudes.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 06/09/2026

Within-bloc logic observed in the wild doi.org/10.1086/736698

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 01/09/2026

The Rainbow Vote now has a cover & publication date. www.therainbowvote.com 🗳️🏳️‍🌈 Please consider pre-ordering, or asking your institution’s library to pre-order! Insufferable self-promotion to follow but I am dutifully celebrating every milestone along the way to publication day in February 😎

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 17/08/2026

Three pre-registered experiments. One story. But now with page numbers. Non-heterosexual behaviour/identities among men is punished significantly more than the same among women.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 11/08/2026

Exogenous opportunity to have your political say at the polls makes you more certain about what you want to say in the polling booth. Snap elections accelerate the formation of vote intentions and depress voter uncertainty. doi.org/10.1016/j.el...

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 23/06/2026

We show that the answer is yes with two pre-reg. experiments: i) A visual conjoint on popular heroes & villains, and ii) a false-recall experiment based on a vignette.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 23/06/2026

The paper's main argument is essentially to flip the partisan/motivated reasoning argument on its head and instead of assuming valence based on group status, ask if folks infer partisan group status based on valence too.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 17/06/2026

Like half of European political science, I too am heading to #EPSS2026. I'll be presenting on Saturday at 9:00 on gender and far-right acceptability You can also catch me on three other papers -- presented by exceptional co-authors Say Hi.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 01/06/2026

Today marks the beginning of Pride Month 🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ Here is a graph on why we still need pride.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 12/05/2026

Can confirm, not good. www.therainbowvote.com

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 07/05/2026

Looking forward to being back in Mannheim next week. If you are keen to hear how political parties are rewarded and punished for taking non-ambiguous positions on trans rights, then you might find this paper I'll be presenting (w\ @bogatyrev.bsky.social) of interest!

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 27/04/2026

What drives the effects? Is it an increase in folks dropping out (incumbents who don’t want to stand again) or is it because of failed recruitment (lower N of new recruits)? Results suggest this is driven by a shift in new recruits.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 27/04/2026

The result is a non-trivial decrease in the share of candidates with immigrant backgrounds and no change in the share of sexual minority candidates. Big differences emerge between parties on the left and right. The left increases the share of immigrant-background candidates and the right decreases

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 27/04/2026

Using registry data with all candidates across all municipalities in Sweden, we use an RDD comparing those municipalities where Sweden Democrats gained or just missed out on representation.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 20/04/2026

The programme for @epssnet.bsky.social's inaugural conference in Belfast is now live. W\ @anacweeks.bsky.social, we were responsible for chairing the Gender & Sexuality Section. Our section will have 13 panels over 3 days. You can see the full programme here: lnkd.in/gQbba9ev

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 11/02/2026

Keep in mind: Sweden already has ~87% voter turnout 🤯, and LGB Swedes vote at even HIGHER rates than counterfactual straight peers (~93% vs ~89% in 2022). So we're finding mobilization effects even at the ceiling. In lower-turnout countries, the effect could be much larger.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 11/02/2026

The result: a 1 percentage-point increase in LGB neighbors boosts LGB voter turnout by 1.56 pp MORE than it does for their straight neighbors. That's a causal effect — and it holds up across multiple robustness checks (different neighbourhood sizes, controls for income/education, etc.).

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 11/02/2026

We used Swedish population registers covering nearly 8 MILLION people across 4 elections (1994–2022). Sweden tracks *validated* voter turnout at the individual level + precise geolocation data This let us build a "neighbourhood" around every single person & measure how many LGB neighbours they had

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 05/02/2026

Some people like using our (w/ @markuswagner.bsky.social) heroes & villains paper to teach partisanship. We've made it easier (and fun?) for students with a new online playground 🦹 doi.org/10.1017/psrm... www.turnbulldugarte.com/heroes-playg...

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 28/01/2026

I like this award-winning paper for many reasons. You should read it if you care about instrumental inclusion.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 28/01/2026

Two pre-registered experiments, same story. Respondents place in-group identities on heroes and out-group identities on villains. Respondents (falsely) recall someone's political identity if they are positively or negatively valanced

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 28/01/2026

Yet to surpass the (professional) fun we had in writing this piece now out in latest issue of @psrm.bsky.social We know political identities share the valence we assign to others. Here we asked, do valence signals also shape the partisanship we assign to others? doi.org/10.1017/psrm...

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 27/01/2026

A life in peer review. stuartjames1990.github.io/peer-review/

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 19/12/2025

In a pre-reg visual conjoint set-up based on a fictitious public consultation, *both* nativists and nativists reject policy recommendations from muslim associations.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 19/12/2025

In this paper we ask: does the theory hold regardless of the policy type (femonationalism, homonationalism, econationalism) *and* the direction of the policy

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 11/12/2025

Muy bueno Pablo! Una hipótesis alternativa: los hombres reprimen (más) su identidad bisexual porque anticipan penalización social mayor por no ser heterosexual 🤓 doi.org/10.1017/S147...

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 03/12/2025

Friday brought good news and bad news. Today I am now allowed to share the good. Via the generous donation of the Wallenberg Foundation and the Swedish Royal Academy of Sciences, I now have a few million euros to help understand more about the selective inclusion of LGBTQ+ citizens

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 29/11/2025

*After* we notified APSR ourselves regarding a corrigendum for a standard-error coding issue, we were told a Comment was forthcoming and given 60 days to submit a response

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 29/11/2025

A few notes on process: When we were contacted by the replicator on Oct. 2nd 2024 we replied immediately on Oct.9th. We received no reply to our invitation to collaborate on a replication nor to discuss their concerns.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 29/11/2025

5. Across a large universe of specifications - testing sensitivity to researcher degrees of freedom around weight reference parameters, caps, and SE, our conclusions are substantively unchanged.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 29/11/2025

3. The Comment does not consider the full set of subgroup analyses in the paper. Those actively *not* reported in the Comment support our main claim.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 29/11/2025

2. Our primary results and conclusions do not hinge on the choice of weights. If anything, the estimates in the article are slightly smaller than the median.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 29/11/2025

1. Replication Study 2 (Spain) is explicitly described as weighted so the weights. In our response we show that the weights used (based on parameters from Spain’s Active Population Survey) are comparable to other independent sources and the weight cap don’t condition claims.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 29/11/2025

A critique of our (w/ @bertous.bsky.social) paper “Instrumentally inclusive” has just been published. Our response is under review (see below on process) but we feel obliged to share our draft for balance since the comment has been released without the response. osf.io/rn6h3/files/...

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 17/11/2025

I doubt that I will ever be able to include a better footnote.

Screengrab of endnotes for a book chapter where endnote #6 "In the spirit of erasing any reasonable doubt in the readers mind, I can confirm that, yes, I am a homosexual." is highlighted.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 30/10/2025

Most young men in Britain, despite popular commentary, are *not* flocking to Reform UK. Just under 1/3 women would vote for Reform Just over 1/3 would vote for Reform. We *cannot* reject the null of gender gap homogeneity across cohorts.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 13/10/2025

It is indeed. Code is here: osf.io/8rpwf/files An animated version of the top panel from these.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 13/10/2025

The Spanish centre-right is taking a tumble and the far-right is on the rise. I was lucky enough to present some new causal work on Friday at LSE showing that the PP does better when it signals distinctiveness from VOX. ~1.5K tests, same result. Rejecting far-right benefits centre-right

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 13/10/2025

Across every identifiable subgroup for which we have data — left/right, young/old, man/woman, etc — the pattern is the same. We find there is NO group that shows majority support for tariffs.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 13/10/2025

We pre-registered variation in support for tariffs conditional on levels of (negative) affect towards the US broadly or Trump specifically. Against our expectation, we find no clear pattern across German and British respondents.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 13/10/2025

The results are clear across both countries: Europeans reject tariffs over other protectionist measures It doesn’t matter if they’re framed as - • protection for domestic producers • funding for green policies 🌱 • retaliation against other nations 🇺🇸

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 13/10/2025

To find out, we ran two pre-registered conjoint experiments in the aftermath of the tariff news 🇩🇪 Germany – coalition-preference experiment 🇬🇧 United Kingdom – visual candidate-choice experiment Tariff proposals were tested alongside other policies to simulate realistic political trade-offs.

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