iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte

Joe Noonan @joenoonan.se · 09/10/2026

How did Europeans react to Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs? New registered report (forthcoming, JEPS): a UESD design using a Eurobarometer survey in the field when the tariffs hit. US favorability fell 2.9 pts No change in EU attachment No shift in support for retaliation or rules-based trade

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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

In other words, a 10 percent contraction in one of Britain’s most successful exports. If it were steel or fish or other infinitely less profitable sectors, people would be having a meltdown.

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POP @populismblog.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

New book out 🔥 The Fascist Zeitgeist. Authoritarian Legacies and the Iberian Far Right. (Elements in the History and Politics of Fascism @universitypress.cambridge.org) How is the success of the Iberian far right linked to the memory of Franco and Salazar? doi.org/10.1017/9781009588072

The image shows, on the right half, the book's cover, with fascist architecture from Rome, which is the signature image used by the series on "The History and Politics of Fascism". The left half of the image shows the book's back, that includes the following summary:
The far right is achieving unprecedented electoral success, even in countries once considered immune such as Spain and Portugal. For decades, the stigma surrounding the long dictatorships of António Salazar and Francisco Franco seemed to inoculate the Iberian Peninsula against far-right mobilisation, yet Chega and VOX have shown that collective memory evolves – and stigma fades. This Element argues that understanding the far right's global rise requires attention to authoritarian nostalgia: a longing for an idealised authoritarian past. When activated by credible political actors with sufficient media visibility, this sentiment can generate support for far-right movements even in societies with a collective memory firmly condemning their authoritarian past. Using original survey data, the Element shows how contemporary far-right forces mobilise the ghosts of authoritarianism to erode democratic norms, revealing the enduring power of collective memory in shaping political behaviour.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 08/10/2026

Some of the models we currently have on a hypothetical broad front assumes no differential behaviour between current intentions and intentions under this alternative. A reasonable assumption, but also a bold one given personalities involved.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 08/10/2026

Sure - very hard to know how it will play out given uncertainty about i) how many part(ies) will be on ballot to the left of Sánchez (meaning N of parties overall that pass threshold), ii) who would lead these, and iii) how far current polls would be off under different hypothetical constellations

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 08/10/2026

Three years comes at you fast, but there is a universe where I write "Sánchez resists (again)!" in a couple of months' time

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 08/10/2026

Three years ago VOX underperformed compared to their 2019 ceiling. We won't see this in Nov - they will pass 2019 this time. I would wager we also won't see the below-avg. turnout we saw in 2023. Election during mass protest seems pretty inductive for high turnout blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2...

blogs.lse.ac.uk

Social democracy resists and the far-right flops in Spain - LSE European Politics

Spain's 2023 general election produced vindication for the country’s Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, and a major defeat for the far-right party Vox.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 08/10/2026

At this rate, these two months are going the be very eventful

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 07/10/2026

Folks don't like it when you call the Spanish right "Trumpian" (although I'd tent to place Madrid's Ayuso unambiguously in that camp). But here you have the leader of the opposition casting doubt on the trustworthiness of postal voting.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 07/10/2026

Excited to present this talk tomorrow. If you're interested in attending drop me a DM and will share the link.

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Brooke Harrington @ebharrington.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

"Gyms for our brains," you say?

Don Draper meme showing him presenting with the words "Hear me out...We call it 'The University'."

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Bookshop.org @bookshop.org · 06/10/2026

Anti-Prime Day starts…NOW! 🥳 Today through midnight on 10/7, enjoy free shipping site-wide, all while supporting local, independent bookstores.

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European Journal of Politics and Gender @ejpgjournal.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Do women candidates help the far right? Not in Britain, finds @turnbulldugarte.com in #EJPG. In 2024, Reform UK's women candidates won no more votes than men, and the gender gap in Reform support was, if anything, wider where it ran a woman.

Banner from the European Journal of Politics and Gender (EJPG), Bristol University Press. New research: "Far-right women do not win more votes: descriptive evidence from Britain" by Stuart J. Turnbull-Dugarte, University of Southampton. Average Reform UK vote share at the 2024 general election: 15.6% for its 513 men candidates and 14.4% for its 96 women candidates.

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Frederik Thieme @frederikthieme.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Why do green parties struggle electorally despite widespread support for climate action? My new (first 😱) paper explores why green parties remain uniquely challenged in economic crisis & that the mechanism is not only about sociotropic concerns, but also voters’ pocketbooks 🧵 doi.org/10.1017/S147...

doi.org

Pocketbook politics and climate action: How economic strain reduces support for green parties | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core

Pocketbook politics and climate action: How economic strain reduces support for green parties

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 02/10/2026

You might not like him, but Sánchez knows how to play Spain is experiencing mass protests on housing crisis. Sánchez says: let's accelerate intro. of two reforms. Congress says: you don't have enough votes. Sánchez says: suspend e-voting in congress & make every MP stand up on camera to say "no"...

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 02/10/2026

[Insert jtust move to Scotland and vote Yes on indyref2 joke]

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Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

For my new research unit Politics of Democracy at the Berlin Social Science Center @wzb.bsky.social, we have 3 open research positions. 2 postdocs: 4 + 2 years (100%) 1 doc: 2 years (75%) Starting date: 1 March 2027 (negotiable) Application deadline: 1 November

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Queer Politics Webinar @queerseminar.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Happening next week! 👀 📆 Be sure to mark your calendars for our first presentation of the programme

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 01/10/2026

Masculinity matters for politics exhibit #3856

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Ben Yoel @benyoel.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

How do elections in backsliding settings shape attitudes toward democracy? @gabrielagreilinger.com and I fielded two surveys: 1 pre/post & 1 after Hungary's election. In short, elections appear to increase satisfaction among winners, even months after. Working paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

papers.ssrn.com

Democratic Attitudes When Backsliding Reverses: Evidence from Hungary

Increasingly, opposition actors in settings undergoing democratic backsliding have been able to unseat anti-democratic incumbents. But unseating an anti-democra

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Alessandro Nai @alessandronai.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

You know those (rare) papers that really make you proud? In new piece out at APR, we show that #AffectivePolarization likely spills onto other types of non-political polarization - notably, PREFERENCES FOR CATS VS. DOGS (aka “affective PAWlarization”) paper: tinyurl.com/jn48bypp data: osf.io/4p2zu

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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Happy to see our new paper on mainstream-to-challenger defection in print! w/ @denis-cohen.bsky.social & @aigneranna.bsky.social Check out Denis' summary below! Thanks to @nilssteiner.bsky.social, @conradziller.bsky.social & @ackermannk.bsky.social for organizing this SI! tinyurl.com/5aa9wrmb

First page of the journal article "From the center to the fringes: A comparative test of attitudinal explanations for mainstream-to-challenger defection" by Denis Cohen, Werner Krause, and Anna Aigner, published in Electoral Studies. The page shows the journal head, author affiliations at the University of Mannheim and the University of Potsdam, keywords, a link to the replication dataset, and the full abstract.

Dot plot showing net balances of vote switching between mainstream and challenger parties, in percentage points, across 16 west European elections from 1973 to 2025. Each election is a point with a 95% credible interval, ordered left to right from most negative to most positive. Values run from about −6 to +15 points; positive values mean net gains for challengers. German elections are labeled individually and mostly sit between −4 and +4 points. Germany's February 2025 election, highlighted in red, is a clear outlier at nearly +10 points, placing it among the highest in the series alongside the Netherlands 2002, Greece 2012, Denmark 1973, and Italy 1992.

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Marius Sältzer @msaeltzer.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Our colleague and friend Philipp Köker has left us and i can't begin to order my thoughts. I hope I can express to his family the feeling of loss we can't beginn to understand, but attempt to share. rundblick-niedersachsen.de/politikwisse...

rundblick-niedersachsen.de

Politikwissenschaftler stirbt überraschend mit 40 Jahren

Philipp Köker, habilitierter Politikwissenschaftler und Experte für die Erforschung politischer Institutionen, ist im Alter von 40 Jahren überraschend gestorben. Die Nachricht hat in Kreisen der Unive...

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Daniel Devine @danjdevine.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Interested in a politics PhD? If you also have a penchant for watching passenger ferries up close and/or excellent project supervision, then @sotonpolitics.bsky.social is ideal for you. You can apply for full funding from @scdtp.bsky.social southcoastdtp.ac.uk

southcoastdtp.ac.uk

Welcome to the South Coast Doctoral Training Partnership

An exciting collaboration between the Universities of Southampton, Brighton and Portsmouth, the South Coast DTP aims to deliver the latest developments in training in research methods and skills to pr...

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Instituto de Políticas y Bienes Públicos @ipp-csic.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

📢 ¡El próximo miércoles arrancamos! @bertous.bsky.social inaugura el 30 de septiembre la temporada de otoño de nuestro Seminario permanente. Seis ponentes y seis investigaciones nos esperan hasta diciembre. 👇 Consulta toda la programación

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 22/09/2026

Far right parties strategically increase the (descriptive) representation of women assuming it helps them win votes in general and, in particular, from women. Does it work? In this short descriptive piece, I show the answer in the case of Reform UK is a clear ‘no’ doi.org/10.1332/2515...

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Alex Hartland @alexhartland.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

📄 New Publication 📄 When AI Talks Politics: How reliable is ChatGPT? Co-authored with Daniela Braun, @giucarny.bsky.social and @rosanavarrete.bsky.social Now available Open Access @electoralstudies.bsky.social www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... 🧵

sciencedirect.com

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Will Allen @williamlallen.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

It's been quite the ride, with lots of supporters: I've received a @ukri.org Future Leaders Fellowship to examine how data visualization matters for what people know, think, and want on climate change, migration, and economic development and inequality. For details, see www.visualizer.org.uk #flf

visualizer.org.uk

VISUALIZER

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 23/09/2026

Today is Bisexual visibility day. Remember to take special care of all the Bisexual Kings in your life. They are far more susceptible to penalties on the dating market than Bisexual Queens.... Girls can kiss girls, but boys can't kiss boys. @ejprjournal.bsky.social doi.org/10.1017/S147...

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 22/09/2026

Bivariate regressions and less than 2K words? Your first year undergrads will thank you. doi.org/10.1332/2515... I'll even throw in an infographic explainer video.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 22/09/2026

Thanks to the new @ejpgjournal.bsky.social editors for the fast processing. Paper here: doi.org/10.1332/2515... Replication script: doi.org/10.7910/DVN/...

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 22/09/2026

This is the first descriptive paper in a wider project on testing the downstream effects of gendered electoral strategies used by the far right. We have an experimental working paper for those with a fetish for more causal work.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 22/09/2026

If fielding more women candidates is supposed to attract more women voters specifically, that definitely doesn’t work. The gender gap was *larger* in those constituencies where Reform ran a woman.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 22/09/2026

Comparing success measured in different ways (winning, vote share, being the runner up, or beating the Tories) there is no descriptive evidence that far-right women performed better than far-right men. This ‘null’ is not because women are placed in tougher constituencies as sacrificial lambs

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 22/09/2026

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Julian Hamann @julianhamann.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Happy to share our new article on academic freedom. @paulita.bsky.social, Christiane Thompson and Gregor Fabian examine how academic rank shapes experiences, expectations and perceptions of restrictions on academic freedom, based on a survey of 9.083 academics in Germany. doi.org/10.1111/1468...

Screenshot showing abstract: This article investigates the relationship between academic career ranks and restrictions on academic freedom. Drawing on a representative survey of 9083 full-time academics at German higher education institutions, we examine how academics across different career ranks assess their freedom in teaching and research. Although precarious employment conditions and professional hierarchies may suggest otherwise, our findings show that doctoral candidates and postdocs on fixed-term contracts do not report experiencing restrictions on their academic freedom significantly more often compared to tenured professors. However, distinguishing between experienced restrictions, on the one hand, and expectations of restrictions as well as broader perceptions of academic freedom on the other, we find that non-tenured academics report more often to expect or perceive their academic freedom to be restricted compared to professors. We explain these rank-based differences with a chilling effect generated by a polemical and polarized discourse on ‘cancel culture.’ Academics on fixed-term contracts are more likely to be receptive to often polemical debates on ‘cancel culture’ and for the concerns that come with it. This suggests that structural employment insecurity plays a key role in shaping how academics assess their academic freedom. Our results challenge simplified accounts of ‘cancel culture’ by showing that discourse and institutional hierarchies intersect to produce differentiated vulnerabilities within academia. Although based in Germany, the findings speak to broader international concerns about restrictions on academic freedom and precarious academic labour.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 18/09/2026

If you are unsure what #EPOP2026 panel to attend tomorrow, I can suggest dropping in to Flex 1 tomorrow afternoon (14:00-15:30). You can hear me make as many phallic puns as I can while explaining why size matters for gender attitudes.

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 17/09/2026

Do LGBTQ+ individuals take a nativist turn after Islamist violence? Does the general pop. increase support for the LGBTQ+ community? We, with @wurthmann.bsky.social & @grahn.bsky.social, answer these Qs with a pre-reg. RDiT around the Berlin attack which I'll present at the next QPW on Oct 8th.

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Arndt Leininger @aleininger.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

🧵 Just accepted @thejop.bsky.social, with @tswalve.bsky.social "What's in a name? Name recognition, place-based identities, and candidate success" Voters prefer local candidates. But how do they know who's local? Often simply from the name on the ballot👇 www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

journals.uchicago.edu

What's in a name? Name recognition, place-based identities, and candidate success | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 15/09/2026

With many of my cool colleagues, I'll be at @psaepop.bsky.social later this week presenting work on two questions 1. Does size matter? 🍆📏 2. Do women sanitise the far-right? You'd be surprised which is the null effects paper 👀 Drop me a DM if not at EPOP but interested - feedback welcome!

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