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Scott Wolford

@thescottwolford.bsky.social
765 followers 394 following 411 posts

Professor of Government, UT Austin // Co-director, Correlates of War Project @correlatesofwar.bsky.social // IR, war, game theory, beer snobbery, rock music, Dune references

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Reposted by Scott Wolford
Kevin Elliott @kjephd.bsky.social · 10/10/2026
DHS really trying to put the "secret" in "secret police"
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geoffrey 💀 (scary now) @parsnip.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
dc statehood is non-negotiable after trump's actions in his second term. republicans despise the people of the city that hosts them, and there is little reason to think that, now that the seal is broken on treating them as an occupied population, a next republican president will be more restrained
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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
New working paper: the Norwegian wealth tax was a huge success. The "exodus" of wealthy people never happened (less than 100 individuals left). Tax revenue increased by 71.5%. No changes in business activity or investment. www.nber.org/papers/w35854
Taxing Entrepreneurial Wealth: Evidence from
Norway, 2021-2025
Marius A. K. Ring
WORKING PAPER 35854|
DOl 10.3386/w35854
ISSUE DATE October 2026
Whether imposing higher taxes on business owners adversely affects business activity by constraining investment and inducing capitalist flight is a central question in the ongoing debate on how to tax the ultra wealthy. To shed new light, I exploit a series of related Norwegian reforms during 2021-2024 that increased dividend tax rates, removed migration-related capital gains tax loopholes, and nearly doubled the effective marginal tax rate on business wealth. These reforms spurred international debate and, allegedly, an "exodus" of Norwegian billionaires (Financial Times,
2023). While I document clear effects on migration, these responses are concentrated among the top 0.1% of the wealth distribution and mostly confined to 2022 and 2023. My results indicate that at most 100 individuals left due to the reforms. I find no evidence of significant outmigration or reduced inflows of startup founders or inventors. I estimate that absent any outmigration, wealth tax revenues would have increased by 75% from 2021 to 2024. Reform-driven outmigration lowers the revenue gain to 71.5%. My findings further show that outmigrating owners' firms remain economically active and do not reduce investment. In a broader set of analyses, I examine whether business outcomes are affected, regardless of whether owners outmigrate, since firms may reduce investment both due to liquidity constraints or distortions to owners' savings decisions. I compare firms owned by Norwegian individuals subject to the wealth tax with firms owned by foreigners and other tax-exempt entities. By merging historical ownership data from Orbis with the Norwegian shareholder register, I perform these analyses on both Norwegian and foreign-domiciled firms.
Across settings, I find no evidence that Norwegian-owned firms pay out more dividends or invest less after the reforms,…
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Scott Wolford @thescottwolford.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
#nowplaying music.apple.com/us/album/sou...
music.apple.com
SOUND & FURY by Sturgill Simpson on Apple Music
Album · 2019 · 10 Songs
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Scott Wolford @thescottwolford.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
#nowplaying music.apple.com/us/album/z/2...
music.apple.com
Z by My Morning Jacket on Apple Music
Album · 2005 · 10 Songs
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Scott Wolford @thescottwolford.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
#nowplaying music.apple.com/us/album/par...
music.apple.com
Parallel Lines by Blondie on Apple Music
Album · 1978 · 12 Songs
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Joshua Failé @joshuafaile.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
The President of the United States, in front of a crowd of his supporters, during a televised rally, admits to a Quid Pro Quo pardon, which is a felony and impeachable offence. And absolutely nothing will happen, because his party, which controls congress, are fascist collaborators and sycophants.
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Scott Wolford @thescottwolford.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
#nowplaying music.apple.com/us/album/no-...
music.apple.com
No Code by Pearl Jam on Apple Music
Album · 1996 · 13 Songs
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Scott Wolford @thescottwolford.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
#nowplaying music.apple.com/us/album/som...
music.apple.com
Some Girls (Remastered 2011) by The Rolling Stones on Apple Music
Album · 1978 · 10 Songs
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International Organization @iojournal.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Now on #FirstView, from Jesse Johnson and @thescottwolford.bsky.social, "Unrest, Shifting Power, and Death-Watch War." www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
cambridge.org
Unrest, Shifting Power, and Death-Watch War | International Organization | Cambridge Core
Unrest, Shifting Power, and Death-Watch War
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Scott Wolford @thescottwolford.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
#nowplaying music.apple.com/us/album/my-...
music.apple.com
My Aim Is True by Elvis Costello on Apple Music
Album · 1977 · 13 Songs
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Joel S. @joelhs.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
We would all have better conversations about Zionism if we viewed it as a nationalism like all others, akin to diaspora Serbian nationalism from Canadian Serbs. Not a civil rights or social justice cause, but also not a way Jewish people are abnormal or ontologically evil.
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Spooky Back From The Dead Lazarus @jlazarus.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
This has been on my feed all day so I'm going to give it as fair as treatment as I can. Prof. Wolfers is well meaning & I get the intuition, but he's speaking outside his area of expertise and he's just wrong. Having lunch with someone you disagree with isn't going to "cure ideological bias." 🧵
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Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 04/10/2026
#OpenAccess from @iojournal.bsky.social - Unrest, Shifting Power, and Death-Watch War - cup.org/4yC7oWE - Jesse C. Johnson & @thescottwolford.bsky.social #FirstView
Logo of "IO" in white letters on a burgundy background with the hashtag "OpenAccess" below it.
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The Fig Economy @figgityfigs.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Russ Vought should be prosecuted for violating the law with impoundment after this is all over.
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Scare Smith 💀 @evilgalprods.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
FATALITY
A tweet from Joyce Carol Oates: overall takeaway from the Curtis Yarvin profile is that there must be millions of smart-aleck show-offy kids who annoy their teachers and go on to annoy other adults through their lives with their “contrarian” pose that hardens to a carapace over their faces; until, as adults, they still harbor a delusion that, if there is a king, or a fuhrer, he’d be impressed with the guys motor mouth and appoint him to his cabinet rather than deleting him with a negligent swipe of his wrist as Stalin did routinely.
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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I don’t want to laugh at Elon Musk. I want to see him spend the rest of his life in jail for the unprecedented crime against the Constitution & the rule of law that was DOGE.
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Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Elites that surrended to Trump in 2025 miscalculated, letting his imagined cultural dominance spook them into inflating the price of getting on his bad side. But now the logic of collective resistance has been confirmed as sound. Should have realized this earlier! newrepublic.com/article/2158...
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Coach Finstock @coachfinstock.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Has there been even one snap where the Tennessee QB isn't running for his life immediately
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Yu-Ming Liou @yumingliou.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Remind me of how Reform, AfD, One Nation and FN are polling again in 🇬🇧, 🇩🇪 , 🇦🇺, and 🇫🇷 ? And who the PMs of Italy and Japan are? This is not to exonerate the many Americans who embrace the far right, just to point out that fascism obviously appeals to a substantial body of voters everywhere.
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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 26/09/2026
peter thiel is another one of those guys who we are supposed to think is brilliant but every time he opens his mouth my first thought is “this guy sounds like an idiot”
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Scott Wolford @thescottwolford.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
#nowplaying music.apple.com/us/album/bec...
music.apple.com
Because of the Times by Kings of Leon on Apple Music
Album · 2007 · 13 Songs
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Kim Weeden @weedenkim.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
"But she didn't go to the police!" yell the chuds defending their favorite candidates/celebrities/CEOs against rape allegations.
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Leah McElrath @leahmcelrath.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
AP Stylebook warns against anthropomorphizing AI systems: “Avoid language that gives them human characteristics… Instead, explain what a system does, how well it performs, who built it and who could be affected by it.”
APStylebook @APStylebook
X.com
Artificial intelligence systems do not think, feel, want or understand. Avoid language that gives them human characteristics. This is called anthropomorphizing, when we ascribe human traits, emotions or behaviors to non-human things, such as animals or inanimate objects.
Instead, explain what a system does, how well it performs, who built it and who could be affected by it.
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Scott Wolford @thescottwolford.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
#nowplaying music.apple.com/us/album/loo...
music.apple.com
Lookout Mountain (Remastered) by Drive-By Truckers on Apple Music
Song · 2023 · Duration 5:03
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Scott Wolford @thescottwolford.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
#nowplaying music.apple.com/us/album/the...
music.apple.com
The Perilous Night by Drive-By Truckers on Apple Music
Song · 2020 · Duration 4:36
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Your Internet Friend Tom Tomorrow @tomtomorrow.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
elon musk buying a chunk of major movie studios for shits and giggles while every artist and writer I know is out here saying please subscribe, please buy my book, please leave a review, please support me with a few paltry dollars
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Scott Wolford @thescottwolford.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
#nowplaying music.apple.com/us/album/ram...
music.apple.com
Ramones by Ramones on Apple Music
Album · 1976 · 14 Songs
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Scott Wolford @thescottwolford.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
#nowplaying music.apple.com/us/album/it-...
music.apple.com
It Still Moves by My Morning Jacket on Apple Music
Album · 2003 · 12 Songs
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Felipe De La Hoz @felipedlh.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
5) They had no real plan for what to do about this, and chose to plow ahead despite understanding that they were going to destroy the basic mechanics of information production 6) They know their models cannot survive without this theft and made a conscious decision to keep stealing
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Felipe De La Hoz @felipedlh.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
2) They understood they had to disregard the wishes and evade the defenses of the information sources to engage in that theft 3) They grasped this as an effort to effectively replace those sources and, in all likelihood, kill them off 4) They knew that this would kill their own information sources
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Felipe De La Hoz @felipedlh.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The whole debate about whether the AI execs even grasp what they're doing has been at least partially settled by the released documents in the NYT v. OpenAI suit, which pretty conclusively establishes that 1) Everyone from executives to individual engineers understood they were engaged in mass theft
motherjones.com
AI exec: We may have pulled off “the largest theft of labor in human history.”
Documents from our lawsuit reveal how tech leaders talk when they think no one is listening.
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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 22/09/2026
this is a genuinely crazy story
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Scott Wolford @thescottwolford.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
youtu.be/qXklLQJJVD4?...
youtu.be
World Wide Suicide - Late Show With David Letterman - Pearl Jam
YouTube video by Pearl Jam
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Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Wait, who exactly engaged in this "talk of a political realignment," NYT?
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(Un)Dead Carl 🎃 @deadcarl.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Tapping the sign
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Steven (with a PH) @sjksalisbury.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Christening a baby is nothing like christening a ship. I know that now. Once again I can only apologise.
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Scott Wolford @thescottwolford.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Somebody didn't think this through...
a pack of "Basically Purified Water"
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Dilek Sayedahmed @dileksayedahmed.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
I truly, deeply, sincerely do think the guy flipping burgers at McDonalds should be able to afford rent, bills, and groceries with his paycheck alone. That's kind of the whole point of having a job and I can't believe this is considered a radical position.🤷🏽‍♀️
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Dan Nexon @dhnexon.net · 19/09/2026
I did not have “psychosexual obsessions of a mediocre news personality destroy the U.S. military” on my “Exit from Hegemony” bingo card.
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Howard Eissenstat @heissenstat.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Gender Studies remains relevant, exhibit #2365
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Nicholas Grossman @nicholasgrossman.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
AI didn’t “go rogue.” People connected a computer system they know can mess with another computer system in unpredictable ways to less advanced computer system and it messed with that computer system in unpredicted ways. As @tressiemcphd.bsky.social argues, don’t lose sight that *people* did that.
nytimes.com
Opinion | Panic Won’t Fix the Looming A.I. Threat. Politics Will.
The threats from A.I. are real — and they’re ones we know how to deal with.
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Dave Willner @dwillner.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Certain kinds of smart people tend to have a "sexy apocalypse" problem when it comes to thinking about risk. E.g. skynet turning everyone in paperclips, while bad, is also *kind of cool and fun* at the same time. Where the reality is that most actual disasters are both stupid and disappointing.
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gelbach @gelbach.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
static.klipy.com
Perfect I Think You Should Leave Tim Robinson Hot Dog
Alt: Perfect I Think You Should Leave Tim Rob
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Matthew Gertz @mattgertz.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Suboptimal that the president is a fucking moron.
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Sar Crespi @boron110.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Evidence for body temperature of Tyrannosaurus rex based on isotopes in their teeth @science.org #ScienceAdvances www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
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MB @sugarcubedog.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Macklemore just announced he’s donating the $1 million he made from Sheeran’s tour to 6 organizations to support Palestinians and he’s asking Robert Kraft to match it. This is just the first part announcing it.
With everything that has happened over the last 48 hours, I want to bring the conversation back to where it belongs: to the Palestinian people who are still being killed, still living under military occupation, and still fighting for their freedom.
I will be donating the entire $1 million of my net earnings from Ed Sheeran's Loop Tour to six organizations working directly to support the Palestinian people. And I invite Robert Kraft to match my donation. Whatever we disagree about, perhaps we can agree on this: Palestinian lives are worth protecting. A Palestinian life is no less valuable than any other life on this earth.
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Scott Wolford @thescottwolford.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
#nowplaying music.apple.com/us/album/tin...
music.apple.com
Tiny Music...Songs from the Vatican Gift Shop by Stone Temple Pilots on Apple Music
Album · 1996 · 12 Songs
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Scott Wolford @thescottwolford.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
#nowplaying music.apple.com/us/album/no-...
music.apple.com
No Code by Pearl Jam on Apple Music
Album · 1996 · 13 Songs
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Scott Lemieux @lemieuxlgm.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
It remains striking, and insitructive about the nature of the Republican Party, that the two Republican justices Trump didn't nominate are the two most in the tank for Trump www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25p...
supremecourt.gov
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