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Dan Nexon

@dhnexon.net
15K followers 2.9K following 8.1K posts

Professor in the Department of Government and the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. New book, The Dynamics of Power Politics, coming in early 2027

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Eric Michael Garcia @ericmgarcia.bsky.social · 5h
Still kind of inconceivable how many people died or will die because of the death of USAID. And the world’s richest man did it almost as a joke
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Dark Laughter @darklaughtertdb.bsky.social · 23m
Hegseth is a great example of a common type of officer who's ended up in charge of something, doesn't have a clue how to do the job, and just falls back on PT, grooming, slogans, and searching for scapegoats. If you put him in charge of a Cinnabon he would do the exact same things.
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Radley Balko @radleybalko.bsky.social · 50m
Maybe so, but he’s undefeated against unarmed fishermen.
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Emmett Macfarlane 🇨🇦 @emmettmacfarlane.com · 57m
POLITICAL SCIENCE JOB AD: Tenure-track position in International Relations at the University of Waterloo. We're *very happy* to announce this. Applications due Nov. 1st; job start date July 2027. Details here (pdf): uwaterloo.ca/arts/sites/d...
uwaterloo.ca
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Super Shoe @shoe.bsky.social · 26m
The cancer spreads
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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 4h
There is a lot of "oh dear" to go around in the results of this very thorough Pew study on the issues with synthetic samples, but this strikes me as particularly "oh dear" www.pewresearch.org/data-labs/20...
AI polling results can lean on racial or partisan stereotypes

In many cases, our AI poll took beliefs or attitudes that are reasonably common among a particular subgroup and portrayed them as nearly ubiquitous. For example, our AI poll would indicate that:

    97% of Hispanic adults are at least somewhat likely to follow the World Cup (while the actual share is 43%).
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Kate Starbird @katestarbird.bsky.social · 18h
When the “censorship industrial complex” myth was just getting started, in Fall 2022, I got a public records request from the AG’s office of Missouri looking for all my emails related to my team’s election rumor research. The Missouri AG at that time? Eric Schmitt. What a tool.
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Matt Steinglass @mattsteinglass.bsky.social · 18h
Anyway: these thoughts about Eric Schmitt and the European far right brought to you from Schiphol airport whence I am about to fly to Budapest, where the mood is very different this year, for this event. events.ceu.edu/2026-10-01/b...
events.ceu.edu
Budapest Forum 2026: New Dynamics of Democratic Change
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In Medias Malone @professormusgrave.bsky.social · 18h
Live video of the White House policy planning staff
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Chris Bertram @crookedfootball.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Always the case that irregular migrants adapt to enforcement. That’s how we got “small boats” in the first place. Hard borders kill, but governments won’t take responsibility
bbc.co.uk
More attempts at longer migrant small boat crossings in Channel
The government says it is bearing down on dangerous small boat crossings.
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Paul Voosen @voosen.me · 28/09/2026
New Horizons is now *three days away* from shutting off its two heliophysics instruments, simply because NASA has not provided the $2M in funding it had promised to the mission last year or this year. There is no science basis for shutting these off. Our earlier coverage:
science.org
NASA’s New Horizons mission may shut down two instruments over lack of funding
Decision risks “incalculable loss” of data from the edge of the Sun’s influence, scientists say
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Gerard Toal @critgeopolitics.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
My Critical Geopolitics seminar tonight is revisiting this 2020 book by @cooleyoneurasia.bsky.social & @dhnexon.net. Both its theory & its Trump analysis still resonate. But we're much further along the unravelling road they describe. I understand there's a second edition in the works.
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ryan cooper @ryanlcooper.com · 28/09/2026
"it certainly sounds like the US government through the DFC is being used leverage a deal for business pals of the Trump family." talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/us-ta...
talkingpointsmemo.com
US Tax Dollars Now Used to Secure Deals for Trump Family Cronies
This has gotten very little attention, as far as I can tell....
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samuelwa.de @samuelwa.de · 28/09/2026
My “Involved in Human Trafficking“ shirt has a lot of people asking questions that are making me want to stop wearing my shirt rather than reconsider my involvement in human trafficking
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Loren DeJonge Schulman @lorenraeds.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Loved nerding out on trust in government with my former @ourpublicservice.bsky.social colleague Lindsay Laferriere. Plus, several reviews of DOGE, VA capacity, EV trucks, the Trimphant Arch, and of course AI safety in the latest Sirens. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/e...
podcasts.apple.com
EVs, DOGE recap, Trust in Government
Podcast Episode · Sirens: A Bombshell production · September 25 · 55m
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Robert Farley @drfarls.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Disastrous new war in Ethiopia? www.economist.com/middle-east-...
economist.com
A disastrous new war threatens in Africa
Heavy fighting in Tigray could herald a wider regional conflict
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Shower Cat @shower-cat.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Never. I’d leave the period off first.
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In Medias Malone @professormusgrave.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
So I have a problem in that this is the best overview of the contemporary state dept culture but jt might have too many f bombs to assign as a reading
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Julie DiCaro @juliedicaro.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
One of these things is not like the other, one of these things is doing its own thing, now it's time to play our game - it's time to play our game!
Administrations of both parties have used public service announcements to explain policy and make the case for the nation’s direction:
The G.W. Bush Administration ran a national television campaign explaining the Medicare Prescription Drug, Improvement, and Modernization Act to seniors. It also bought Super Bowl airtime for anti-drug and anti-terrorism public service announcements.
The Obama Administration used national advertising to promote Obamacare subsidies and open enrollment, and a digital campaign to sell its Waters of the United States rule.
The Biden Administration poured hundreds of millions of dollars into “We Can Do This” — television, digital, radio, and print spots — to drive a nationwide public health message.
It’s not just modern Administrations. President Woodrow Wilson’s Committee on Public Information used posters, films, and speakers to rally the country. President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s Office of War Information produced films, radio, and posters to promote the war effort.
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Shower Cat @shower-cat.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I mean, immune from any legal limit is what “presidential immunity” means…
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Deva Woodly @devawo.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
It’s always been my view that she should run for Senate. She can handily win and keep this seat. And she’d be the right hand a democratic president needed and a legendary lioness of the senate besides. She’s shown real talent as a legislator & the caucus respects her.
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Gabriel Malor @gabrielmalor.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Thanks, John Roberts.
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Steven T. Dennis @steventdennis.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
A lot of people are dunking on this, but there has been a lot of boiler-room type behavior to sign up people for ACA plans, especially in Florida, with people sometimes unaware what they were signing up for. Bloomberg reported on the practice here: www.bloomberg.com/features/202...
bloomberg.com
How Celebrity Deepfakes Supercharged Florida Health-Care Hustle
A wannabe hip-hop mogul and blue-haired internet marketer turned Obamacare into a lucrative get-rich-quick scheme, with an assist from Bain Capital.
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Mrs. Betty Bowers @mrsbettybowers.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Paying expensive healthcare premiums but never using the insurance is a odd way to commit fraud.
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Foreign Policy @foreignpolicy.com · 26/09/2026
The Saudis believed that a corrupt U.S. government was in their interest, writes Nicholas Grossman. But in reality, bribable usually means selfish and weak. foreignpolicy.com/2026/09/24/i...
foreignpolicy.com
Saudi Arabia Bribed the Wrong People
Riyadh’s bet on Trumpism has failed.
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ae @aelkus.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
you don’t get to do the “things happen in war/the enemy is playing dirty/man in the arena” routine when the war itself is a sham and the people fighting it have abandoned any semblance of ethics or professionalism
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Musicology Duck @musicologyduck.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
incidentally i think these guys are the patron saints of bluesky
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Michael Hobbes @michaelhobbes.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
There are like 500 of these books and they all exist in an alternate universe where trying to win over white working class voters is a Bold Forbidden Insight rather than the guiding ideology of the entire party.
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Jeff, formerly of MN and MA, still God of Cookies @diasporaminnesotan.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
I wish she were here so I could do a pedantic "IT WAS FLAVOR AID!" This toad just needs to fuck all the way off forever. Joke of a human being and stooge for fascists.
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Clean Observer @hammbear2024.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
In which Ryan Grim is trying to wrecker-fuck the Dem nominee in Maine. This is loathsome.
Democratic Party
Consultants Surround
Troy Jackson with Pro-Israel Donors
After two failed attempts to nominate a Maine candidate friendly to the party establishment, the consultant class is finding better success with its third approach, co-optation.
NATHAN BERNARD AND RYAN GRIM
16 HOURS AGO
6 Listen
TROY
Maine Democratic Senate candidate
Troy Jackson speaks at a town hall on
Sentember 13. 2026
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Grudgie the Whale @grudgie.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
The man has never and will never ask anything of Putin (besides electoral help)
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Dan Nexon @dhnexon.net · 26/09/2026
What are the best explanations the rapid diffusion and success of TERFism in the UK? AFAICT, we need an explanation of why the argument is compelling to elite feminists in the UK — and why US feminism is so resistant to it — since that's the vector for spread into center-left and Labour politics.
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Erika is still using women's toilets 🖕(she/her) 🏳️‍⚧️ @erristarling.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
I bet Genghis Khan didn't know what a vaccine was, therefore vaccines don't exist 😌
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In Medias Malone @professormusgrave.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
People who kind of but not fully pay attention to US politics may not appreciate that there is barely a political echelon of government anymore
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Dan Nexon @dhnexon.net · 26/09/2026
You can have either a Constitutional Democracy or the Roberts Court. There’s no “all of the above” option.
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Steve Vladeck @stevevladeck.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
This was the 28th time #SCOTUS has granted emergency relief to the Trump administration since 1/20/25. That matches the total number of grants during the entirety of the first Trump administration. And both of those totals dwarf the *four* grants of relief (two each) during the Bush & Obama admins.
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Clara Jeffery @clarajeffery.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
We just dropped a bombshell investigation into ChatGPT's role in the Tumbler Ridge mass shooting. Incredible reporting from @markfollman.bsky.social that will have far-reaching effects...hopefully: www.motherjones.com/media/2026/0...
motherjones.com
ChatGPT helped the Tumbler Ridge school shooter focus on guns, tactics, and terror, our investigation reveals
OpenAI’s chatbot fed the shooter’s violent fantasies and planning up to the massacre.
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Schooley @schooley.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Go on. Keep proving the point of the documentary, fellas.
apple.news
The Major Social Media Platforms Are All Rejecting Paid Ads for 'Musk' (Exclusive) — The Hollywood Reporter
The Alex Gibney doc has received denials from YouTube, Meta, TikTok and X on running the trailer. Its U.S. distributor is appealing.
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ae @aelkus.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
i really feel fundamentally that a landscape in which nation-states aggressively enforce existing computer crime legislation looks very different bsky.app/profile/pond...
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David Dayen @ddayen.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
I'm fine with being mad at the desiccated husk that is the California political establishment for settling the Paramount-Warner Bros. merger challenge, but Hal Singer is right, this all started with the pay-to-play Trump vivisection of antitrust enforcement. prospect.org/2026/09/24/p...
prospect.org
The Paramount Settlement Started With Trump - The American Prospect
The media conglomerate’s sweetheart deal is just the latest consequence of Trump’s interference in federal antitrust enforcement.
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ae @aelkus.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
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Niko Bowie @nikobowie.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Deep dives like this really put into perspective what Chief Justice Rehnquist was doing in 2000 when he resurrected the Court’s precedents of the 1870s and 1880s, writing that their authors “had intimate knowledge and familiarity with the events surrounding the adoption of the Fourteenth Amendment.”
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Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 24/09/2026
There are real parallels between the development of nuclear technology and the buildout of AI systems, but the atomic age “cannot provide a ready-made blueprint for the problem that AI poses,” write @claroche.bsky.social and @nktpnd.bsky.social.
foreignaffairs.com
The Trouble With the Nuclear-AI Analogy
In humanity’s quest to constrain the dangers from fast-advancing artificial intelligence, many have looked to the most revolutionary technology that preceded it: nuclear weapons.
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Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
This idiocy is a pretty good illustration of what I tried to get at in the piece below, especially the stuff about MAGA's effort to recast ethnic cleansing as a heroic, last-ditch civilizational rescue mission:
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Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Wondering if secretly WH wants to lose so they get...actual coverage of the Xi visit, which includes an airport pickup -- and we know, from Seinfeld, just how important the airport pickup is.
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Peter Gleick @petergleick.bsky.social · 05/01/2025
I was lead author of the #water sector report of the very first of a series of US National Climate Assessments 25 years ago. Trump may kill the next one or put out a fake one, but the science of the #climate threats to the US is indisputable and can't be whitewashed. www.eenews.net/articles/tru...
eenews.net
Trump team takes aim at crown jewel of US climate research
A top aide to the president-elect wants tighter control over the National Climate Assessment.
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David_j_roth @davidjroth.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Now this is my kind of foreshadowing
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I Travel Like Sound Dog @chadstanton.blacksky.app · 23/09/2026
“The Department of Health and Human Services informed congressional appropriators earlier this year that it was moving about $12 million from its Office of Minority Health to help cover the ballooning cost of security for Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.” www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
wsj.com
Exclusive | RFK Jr.’s Enhanced Security Was Funded With Money From Minority Health Office
The cost of the health secretary’s security grew from roughly $10 million in fiscal year 2025 to $17 million in fiscal year 2026.
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Josephine Quinn @josephinequinn.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Apparently I'm giving an inaugural lecture - all very welcome! Thurs October 8th, 5pm, drinks to follow.
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Judah Grunstein @judah-grunstein.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
This is it in a nutshell for me, for mathematics but also more broadly: "Indeed, the mass production at faster and faster pace of 'true/false' statements could destroy fertile ground instead of breathing life into new ideas." Citation from this, by Terence Tao.
terrytao.wordpress.com
A Severe Misalignment of AI in Mathematics
I am proud to be among the list of 25 initial signatories — all Fields Medallists — to the declaration below, which grew out of discussions between ourselves over the last week. We have…
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