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Troels Bøggild

@tboeggild.bsky.social
2K followers 626 following 46 posts

Professor, @AarhusUni | Political scientist | DFF Research leader | Political behavior, distrust, polarization, social media

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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
This is a fascinating study by @tboeggild.bsky.social and @m-b-petersen.bsky.social - it suggests political discontent is a wicked problem, but also fundamentally about inequality.
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European Journal of Political Research @ejprjournal.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
Following voters ⛓️ @ecprsgpp.bsky.social's Mathias Bukh Vestergaard, Carsten Jensen & @tboeggild.bsky.social use 2019 Danish national election data to better understand how #VoterAwareness pre-election relates to awareness and policy fulfilment after elections
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Following voters in the chain of representation: The important role of pre-election pledge awareness | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
Following voters in the chain of representation: The important role of pre-election pledge awareness
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S. Erdem Aytaç @seaytac.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
Why do citizens who say they support democracy tolerate leaders who dismantle it? Delighted to share my paper “Framing Democracy: How Elite Discourse Shapes Citizens' Understandings of Democracy and Enables Backsliding” is forthcoming in World Politics...(1/5, link at the end)
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Carl Müller-Crepon @carlmc.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
🚨 Very excited that our paper on *Rulers on the Road* has been cond. accepted at the AJPS @ajpseditor.bsky.social. We analyze emperors' strategies of itinerant rule in the Holy Roman Empire 919-1519. Fun working with @claranw.bsky.social, @andrejkokkonen.bsky.social & Jørgen Møller shorturl.at/Spm7z
Itineraries of 25 Emperors of the Holy Roman Empire, 919 to 1519Itinerant rule, rule exercised through traveling, was a common, yet insufficiently researched pre-modern form of governance. Studying the determinants of ruler itineraries in the Holy Roman Empire AD 919-1519, we argue that rulers focused on monitoring `marginal' elites. Powerful rulers could count on family members and thus targeted unrelated local elites. Weak emperors had to monitor their less loyal relatives and left unrelated nobles unvisited. We reconstruct emperors' itineraries from 72'665 dated and geolocated documents and measure territorial control by their relatives. Exploiting the weakening of imperial power through the Great Interregnum (1250-1273), we find that strong, pre-1250 emperors frequented areas controlled by their relatives relatively less. In contrast, family control increased visits post-1273. Causal identification rests on the discontinuous reduction of emperors' power through the Great Interregnum and differences in family relations between subsequent emperors. The results show strategic itinerant rule as an important but understudied form of governance.
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Sabrina Norwood @sabrinanorwood.bsky.social · 16/12/2025
Did you know that from tomorrow, Qualtrics is offering synthetic panels (AI-generated participants)? Follow me down a rabbit hole I'm calling "doing science is tough and I'm so busy, can't we just make up participants?"
Text reads: About synthetic panels
Recruiting the right participants for a study can be difficult. You may not get the exact demographics you need, and the shorter the deadline, the less sure you can be that everyone will answer on time. One possible solution can be to use synthetic panels.

Synthetic panels are powered by a first party proprietary AI model developed here at Qualtrics. Our synthetic panel is trained on thousands of responses from a variety of demographic backgrounds in order to more accurately predict how certain populations would respond to a survey.

Our synthetic panel is based on the United States General Population, and is only available in English. This panel comes with ready-made quotas and target breakouts in order to represent your chosen population and make it easy to launch your survey right away.Text reads:
Question-writing best practices
To get the most reliable and actionable results from synthetic audiences, consider these question-writing best practices:

Ask forward-looking and attitudinal questions.
Synthetic panels perform best with perceptions, preferences, and intent-based questions. For example, “How likely are you to try…?”
Synthetic panels are less applicable for studies on past behaviors, detailed recall, brand recall, or awareness questions. For example, “When did you last visit…?”Text reads:
Discussion
The current study aimed to conduct a meta-analysis of the TPB when applied to health behaviours which addressed the limitations of previous reviews by including only prospective tests of behaviour, applying RE meta-analytic procedures, correcting correlations for sampling and measurement error, and hierarchically analysing the effect of behaviour type and sample and methodological moderators. Some 237 tests were identified which examined relations amongst model components. Overall the analysis indicated that the TPB could explain 19.3% of the variance in behaviour and 44.3% of the variance in intention across studies. This level of prediction of behaviour is slightly lower than that of previous meta-analytic reviews which have found between 27% (Armitage & Conner, 2001; Hagger et al., 2002) and 36% (Trafimow et al., 2002)
of the variance in behaviour to be explained by intention and PBC.
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Mike Wagner @prowag.bsky.social · 15/12/2025
How did Twitter users react right after Elon Musk bought the social media site? @macaukfmak.bsky.social @zeningduan.bsky.social Sijia Yang and I used a panel survey (wave 1 before Musk took control of Twitter, wave 2 after) to find out. 1/ urldefense.com/v3/__https:/...
urldefense.com
To quit or not to quit Twitter? The interplay of identities, perceptions, and behavioral reactions to changing platform ownership
Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter (now ‘X’) raised concerns about its governance and functioning. Using this as a case study, we propose a framework to analyze the interplay of social identities, ...
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John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 29/11/2025
Name assimilation increases immigrants' earnings A LOT. osf.io/preprints/so...
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Alejandro Fernández-Roldán @aleferna.bsky.social · 28/11/2025
A hidden gem for PolSci in an Econ journal: mainstream right-wing parties seem to capture only a fraction (!) of the far-right vote when the latter don't run in an election. Crucially, left parties seem to gain votes! A key finding for understanding potential coalitions doi.org/10.1016/j.jp...
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Stanford Tech Impact and Policy Center @techimpactpolicy.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
@robbwiller.bsky.social, Director of our #AI and the Future of #SocialScience program, spoke with the Stanford Report about his recent research showing that AI-generated political messages can be as persuasive as those developed by humans. Learn more ⤵️
stanford.io
AI rivals humans in political persuasion
New research reveals that people find AI-delivered political arguments convincing. This could help bridge political divides – or fuel polarization.
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Chris Hanretty @chanret.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
NEW ARTICLE: @palesl.bsky.social, Vesa Koskimaa and I have an letter out in JOP, "Politicians talk less about the future as they age" doi.org/10.1086/739406 (1/10)
doi.org
Legislators talk less about the future as they age | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja
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Riccardo Fusaroli @fusaroli.eurosky.social · 26/11/2025
CogSci in Aarhus is hiring, open rank (assi, asso or full prof). We want somebody working on and teaching computational modelling of cognitive processes and/or social processes. Students are amazing, work/life balance very satisfactory, and colleagues are nice! international.au.dk/about/profil...
international.au.dk
Assistant Professor, Associate Professor or Full Professor of Cognitive Science - Vacancy at Aarhus University
Vacancy at School of Communication and Culture - Linguistics, Cognitive Science and Semiotics, Dept. of, Aarhus University
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Reto Mitteregger @indubioproreto.bsky.social · 24/11/2025
New Publication with @lhaffert.bsky.social in @ejprjournal.bsky.social! We study the role of generations in the urban-rural divide, which is increasingly shaping the politics of many democracies. Studying Switzerland, we show: The urban-rural divide is stronger among younger generations. (1/10) 🧵👇
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James Dennison @jamesrdennison.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
Thrilled to share my new article in Political Psychology: “The psychology of political attitudinal volatility.” In it, I attempt to answer why do some people change their political views more than others? Open access at: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.... @ispp-pops.bsky.social
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koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social · 23/11/2025
“Understanding the mind requires understanding history, because psychology is not only constructed in the present but shaped through deep historical time.” —Jackson and Atari on the key questions Historical Psychology can help address: buff.ly/U0pPHZm
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Violeta Haas @haasvioleta.bsky.social · 22/11/2025
Happy that our paper with @bogatyrev.bsky.social, @tabouchadi.bsky.social, @heikekluever.bsky.social, and @lstoetze.bsky.social found a home at @thejop.bsky.social. You can read it here 👇 www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/... Thanks to all the fantastic people giving feedback and supporting us
journals.uchicago.edu
The Electoral Effects of State-Sponsored Anti-LGBTQ Measures | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja
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Sasha Gusev @sashagusevposts.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
So there you have it, twin study estimates were greatly inflated, and molecular data sets the record straight. I walk through possible counter-arguments, but ultimately the uncomfortable truth is that genes contribute to traits much less than we always thought.
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Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 20/11/2025
#OpenAccess from @jepsjournal.bsky.social - Partisan Homogeneity Does Not Increase Collaborative Corruption - cup.org/3K65wB9 - @cerpintaxt.bsky.social, Florian Erlbruch & Markus Stephan Tepe #FirstView
Logo of JEPS with the hashtag OpenAccess on a dark blue background.
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Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality @stone-lis.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
Rising wealth concentration tends to undermine democracy, according to a Stone Center Working Paper by @schechtlm.bsky.social. In this interview, he discusses how he drew on two new sources of data to compare democratic backsliding in 50 U.S. states. stonecenter.gc.cuny.edu/the-effect-o...
stonecenter.gc.cuny.edu
The Effect of Increasing Wealth Inequality on U.S. Democracy at the State Level - Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality
Manuel Schechtl, a 2022–2024 Stone Center postdoctoral scholar, discusses his Stone Center Working Paper, which combines two new sources of data to compare the extent of democratic backsliding in all ...
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David Rand @dgrand.bsky.social · 14/11/2025
🚨Out in PNAS🚨 Examining news on 7 platforms: 1)Right-leaning platforms=lower quality news 2)Echo-platforms: Right-leaning news gets more engagement on right-leaning platforms, vice-versa for left-leaning 3)Low-quality news gets more engagement EVERYWHERE - even BlueSky! www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
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Political Studies @polstudies.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
IN NEW ISSUE: Elite Cooperation and Affective Polarization: @markuswagner.bsky.social & @eelcoharteveld.bsky.social examine the link between the two by using 20 years of German coalitions data - buff.ly/DoGL3EA (OPEN ACCESS) @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com
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Pew Research Center @pewresearch.org · 12/11/2025
About one-in-five U.S. adults (21%) say they regularly get news from news influencers on social media. Among 18- to 29-year-olds, that figure jumps to 38%.
pewresearch.org
News Influencers Fact Sheet
About one-in-five U.S. adults say they regularly get news from news influencers on social media, and this is especially common among younger adults.
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Political Behavior @polbehavior.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
Americans’ immigration attitudes reflect both country of origin and religion. Christley & Zhirkov find that immigrants from Muslim-majority countries face lower support for admission—across parties, though less so among Democrats. #Immigration Read more: link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com
Americans’ Opposition to Muslim Immigration: Untangling Religion from Country of Origin - Political Behavior
Does an immigrant’s country of origin shape Americans’ immigration preferences? If so, are some attributes of origin countries likely to provoke particularly strong opposition over others? We answer t...
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koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
We are at our most certain about an issue when we have thoroughly researched it and considered all relevant angles. Only one thing can make us more certain. Ignorance. buff.ly/w8OaZGn
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Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 12/11/2025
#OpenAccess from @poppublicsphere.bsky.social - Do Authoritarians Support Political Violence? - cup.org/43p5yL9 - Bryan T. Gervais, Connor Dye, Gabriel Acevedo, Christopher G. Ellison & Margaret S. Kelley #FirstView
Perspectives on Politics banner with a cityscape background. Below, a graffiti quote says, "First they came for the journalists and I did not speak out, because they said it was all 'fake news'." The hashtag #OpenAccess is visible at the bottom.
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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇
Boris Johnson toasting one of the gatherings in Downing Street which breached Covid lockdown rules
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Aditya Dasgupta @adasgupta.bsky.social · 08/11/2025
Do architecture and urban planning affect political behavior? Happy to share a paper that @tesaliarizzo.bsky.social and I have coming out at the APSR which uses computer vision to investigate how the built environment shapes inequalities in civic participation in Mexico: osf.io/preprints/so.... 🧵1/5
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koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social · 09/11/2025
Physiognomy—an old belief that one’s character is reflected in one’s facial features—is now widely regarded as pseudoscience. @bxjaeger.bsky.social et al find it remains common among laypeople across demographics, and is associated with intuitive thinking: buff.ly/iVz5gYY
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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 03/11/2025
Cool new working paper on why and how cable news threw gasoline on the culture war fire. The culture war isn't optimal for electoral candidates, but it's optimal for cable news companies. ungated: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/27v4x...
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Roman Senninger @rsenninger.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
📄 New WP version out - full overhaul! The Politics of Evidence Selection (w/ @jesperasring.bsky.social ) Comments welcome! 🔗 osf.io/preprints/so...
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Michael Bang Petersen @m-b-petersen.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
Four (!) three-year postdoc positions available at @au.dk: international.au.dk/about/profil... Join an incredible team & help understand the psychological & political implications of the clash between high-speed society & slow-speed democracy. Please share! @tboeggild.bsky.social can help with Qs
international.au.dk
Four three-year postdoctoral positions in the project Slow-Motion Democracy - Vacancy at Aarhus University
Vacancy at Department of Political Science, Aarhus University
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European Journal of Political Research @ejprjournal.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
🆕 What kind of personalities are drawn to politics? 🗳️ This cross-national study across 🇨🇦🇩🇰🇮🇱🇳🇱🇨🇭 explores #Representation and how honesty-humility and other HEXACO personality traits shape people’s ambition to run for office 🧵1/2 buff.ly/xk4qMa3
cambridge.org
Too honest and humble to run for office? Citizens’ personality traits, nascent ambition, and recruitment | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
Too honest and humble to run for office? Citizens’ personality traits, nascent ambition, and recruitment
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Journal of Experimental Political Science @jepsjournal.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
Now Out on FirstView: Expressive Responding and the Economy: The Case of Trump’s Return to Office www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
cambridge.org
Expressive Responding and the Economy: The Case of Trump’s Return to Office | Journal of Experimental Political Science | Cambridge Core
Expressive Responding and the Economy: The Case of Trump’s Return to Office
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Journal of Experimental Political Science @jepsjournal.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
Now Out on First View: Can Monuments to Victims Increase Tolerance? www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
cambridge.org
Can Monuments to Victims Increase Tolerance? | Journal of Experimental Political Science | Cambridge Core
Can Monuments to Victims Increase Tolerance?
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Laura Jacobs @lcjacobs89.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
Now out in Party Politics 🎉 Our study (@jbpilet.bsky.social)suggests that when a mainstream right-wing party signals willingness to rule with the radical right, support for the radical right rises — while the mainstream gains nothing. 👉 A legitimisation effect. journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
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Laurenz Ennser-Jedenastik @laurenzennser.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
🚨New paper out in @jeppjournal.bsky.social: doi.org/10.1080/1350... @manuelwagner.bsky.social & I re-conceptualize class representation to take into account social mobility between classes and variation in how individuals enter politics.
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koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social · 25/10/2025
What are the feelings it sparks in the readership that makes a social media post go viral? Chuck Dinerstein summarizes Chinese research on the WeChat platform that looks at discrete emotions (beyond postive/negative valence and arousal): buff.ly/opXnDtd
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John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
New work on school cell phone bans just dropped. "Bans...led to a[n] ... increase in student suspensions in the short-term ... but disciplinary actions began to dissipate after the first year." "We find significant improvements in student test scores in the second year of the ban."
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𝙅𝙖𝙘🍩𝙗 𝙉𝙮𝙧𝙪𝙥 @jacobnyrup.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
We are hiring PhDs and postdocs to work on the ERC project GETGOV, where I am the PI. We will investigate governing elites since 1789. I am sure that it will be a lot of fun and result in great research! Postdocs: www.jobbnorge.no/en/available... PhDs: www.jobbnorge.no/en/available...
jobbnorge.no
Postdoctoral Fellow in Political Science (3-4 years) (288628) | University of Oslo
Job title: Postdoctoral Fellow in Political Science (3-4 years) (288628), Employer: University of Oslo, Deadline: Monday, November 17, 2025
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Jay Van Bavel, PhD @jayvanbavel.bsky.social · 19/10/2025
Is science getting too competitive? Grant applications are skyrocketing and funding rates are decreasing. Yet the article in Nature fails to mention the potential role that AI/LLMs in driving up grant applications. It's becoming a lottery. www.nature.com/articles/d41...).
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The Quarterly Journal of Economics @qjeharvard.bsky.social · 17/10/2025
Recently accepted by #QJE, “Digital Distractions with Peer Influence: The Impact of Mobile App Usage on Academic and Labor Market Outcomes,” by Barwick, Chen, Fu, and Li: doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
doi.org
Digital Distractions with Peer Influence: The Impact of Mobile App Usage on Academic and Labor Market Outcomes*
Abstract. Concerns about excessive mobile phone use among youth are mounting. We present estimates of both behavioral and contextual peer effects, along wi
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Heike Klüver @heikekluever.bsky.social · 15/10/2025
Why do people turn to populist parties? 🤔 📣 Our new study just published at @ejprjournal.bsky.social shows it’s not just real inequality - it’s perceived inequality that drives populism. 📌 Blog: hu-govlab.de/en/perceived... 📊 Study: tinyurl.com/msnndnpn 🏛️ Funded by: @scripts-berlin.eu
hu-govlab.de
Perceived Inequality as Fertile Ground for Populism - HUMBOLDT-GOV.LAB
Why are more and more people turning to populist parties? A new study by Lukas F. Stoetzer, Johannes Giesecke, and Heike Klüver shows that not only actual social inequality matters, but also how unequ...
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António Valentim @antvalentim.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
🚨 New paper out! Very happy to see our (Tom Arend, @fabioellger.bsky.social and mine) paper out at the @bjpols.bsky.social. We explore how voters react to new, disruptive political actors. 1/3
doi.org
Green Party Entry and Conservative Backlash: Evidence from Germany | British Journal of Political Science | Cambridge Core
Green Party Entry and Conservative Backlash: Evidence from Germany - Volume 55
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Lee Drutman @leedrutman.bsky.social · 12/10/2025
Thermostatic public opinion, reacting against the governing regime, like old faithful. globalaffairs.org/research/pub...
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Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 10/10/2025
#OpenAccess from @ejprjournal.bsky.social - Liberal democratic values among immigrants in Europe: Socialisation and adaptation processes - cup.org/42C8Zxv - @fguelzau.bsky.social, Marc Helbling & @snmorgenstern.bsky.social #FirstView
Banner for the European Journal of Political Research, available on Cambridge Core, the platform of Cambridge University Press. The banner is in blue with white and lighter blue text.
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Tiago Ventura @tiagoventura.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
How common are “survey professionals” - people who take dozens of online surveys for pay - across online panels, and do they harm data quality? Our paper, FirstView at @politicalanalysis.bsky.social, tackles this question using browsing data from three U.S. samples (Facebook, YouGov, and Lucid):
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Rob Sica @robsica.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
"We echo previous calls to temper our discussions of misinformation and avoid jumping to overblown conclusions about the effects of misinformation"
nature.com
Evaluating real-world effects of one-off fake news exposure - Scientific Reports
Scientific Reports - Evaluating real-world effects of one-off fake news exposure
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Science Magazine @science.org · 03/10/2025
"Combining an urgent analysis with masterful breadth, Susan Stokes’s book The Backsliders focuses on the contemporary challenge of global democratic erosion, a notable and expanding trend." Read the #ScienceBooks Review: scim.ag/3WhckhQ
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Andrew Heiss @andrew.heiss.phd · 26/09/2025
Just posted an updated/revised version of this “Statistical Methods in Public Policy Research” chapter, now under review post-R&R 🤞 I'm kinda partial and unbiased here, but I really really like this piece! HTML/PDF: stats.andrewheiss.com/snoopy-spring/ SocArXiv: doi.org/10.31235/osf...
Statistical Methods in Public Policy Research
Chapter for the Oxford Research Encyclopedia on Public Policy

This essay provides an overview of statistical methods in public policy, focused primarily on the United States. The essay traces the historical development of quantitative approaches in policy research, from early ad hoc applications through the 19th and early 20th centuries, to the full institutionalization of statistical analysis in federal, state, local, and nonprofit agencies by the late 20th century. It then outlines three core methodological approaches to policy-centered statistical research across social science disciplines: description, explanation, and prediction. In descriptive work, researchers explore what exists and examine any variable of interest to understand their different distributions and relationships. In explanatory work, researchers ask why does it exist and how can it be influenced. The focus of the analysis is on explanatory variables (X) to either (1) accurately estimate their relationship with an outcome variable (Y), or (2) causally attribute the effect of specific explanatory variables on outcomes. In predictive work, researchers ask what will happen next and focus on the outcome variable (Y) and on generating accurate forecasts, classifications, and predictions from new data. For each approach, the essay examines key techniques, their applications in policy contexts, and important methodological considerations. The discussion then considers critical perspectives on quantitative policy analysis framed around issues related to a three-part “data imperative” where governments are driven to count, gather, and learn from data. Each of these imperatives entail substantial issues related to privacy, accountability, democratic participation, and epistemic inequalities—issues at odds with public sector values of transparency and openness. The conclusion identifies some emerging trends in public sector-focused data science, inclusive ethi…Table of contents
Introduction
1 Brief History of Statistics in Public Policy
2 Core Methodological Approaches
2.1 Description
2.2 Explanation
2.2.1 Estimation, Inference, and Hypothesis Testing
2.2.2 Causal Attribution and Causal Inference
2.3 Prediction
3 The Pitfalls of Counting, Gathering, and Learning from Public Data
4 Future Directions
Further Reading
References
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