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Paul Cormarie

@paulcormarie.bsky.social
663 followers 652 following 47 posts

RAND Analyst | European defense & nukes | 🇫🇷🇺🇸

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Reposted by Paul Cormarie
RAND @rand.org · 06/05/2026
This new paper outlines a strategy for avoiding major war in the race to AGI:
bit.ly
A Strategy to Reduce Risk and Promote Stability in the Race to AGI
Rather than betting everything on winning the race to AGI, the AGI Rideout Strategy emphasizes building the capabilities needed to compete effectively regardless of who achieves AGI first—and to avert...
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Paul Cormarie @paulcormarie.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Going to NPT RevCon tomorrow thru Friday. Would love to catch up with folks! Also please come check out my side event ⬇️
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Reposted by Paul Cormarie
Marie Le Conte @youngvulgarian.marieleconte.com · 12/04/2026
crowd at the Tisza rally singing "Europa! Europa!"
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Paul Cormarie @paulcormarie.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
“forward deterrence as a political gesture or a meaningful survivability measure depends on dispersing only the jets because w/out the warheads it is unlikely to generate substantial operational and deterrence benefits in a crisis” Well done @frankkuhn.bsky.social warontherocks.com/2026/04/disp...
warontherocks.com
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 04/04/2026
The $27.44 billion FY27 request for NNSA weapons activities is $3.18 billion (or 13%) more than the FY26 enacted level and $6.1 billion (or 29%) more than the FY25 projection for FY27. There wasnt a FY26 FYNSP, but as of FY25 weapons wasn't slated to exceed $27 billion til FY34.
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Elizabeth N. Saunders @profsaunders.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
How are those security guarantees looking to, well, everyone?
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William B. Fuckley @opinionhaver.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
I depressingly think this might become the new normal in 'multipolarity'. minimal boots on the ground, no even pretense at nation building, just an occasional 'fuck you' bombing campaign that kills top leadership and has the explicit intent of destabilization.
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
Interesting: "Sweden has had very early discussions with France and the United Kingdom about possible nuclear weapons cooperation, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has revealed." breakingdefense.com/2026/01/swed...
breakingdefense.com
Sweden weighs Franco-British nuclear weapons cooperation  - Breaking Defense
"I say that when we joined NATO, we are fully involved in all discussions, including those in Europe revolving around nuclear weapons," Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said.
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Gregory Koblentz @gregkoblentz.bsky.social · 21/10/2025
New @rand.org report on biosecurity: Protecting Biological Materials and Services from Misuse: Opportunities for Access Monitoring and Control www.rand.org/pubs/researc...
rand.org
Protecting Biological Materials and Services from Misuse
The authors explore critical points within the biological supply network that bad actors might exploit to develop biological weapons. The authors develop recommendations for enhancing data collection,...
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Simon Usherwood @simonusherwood.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
An overview of how the new EU-Canada SDP fits in with sister agts: a mix of UK/Nor and Japan/ROK PDF: bit.ly/UshGraphic142 Full text synopsis: bit.ly/EUSDPs @ukandeu.bsky.social
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Evergreen Intel @vcdgf555.bsky.social · 16/06/2025
Good morning. With the addition of 4 tankers out of New Jersey, there are now at least 32 tankers observed in the overnight group. A considerable portion went to Morón Air Base in Spain, with others on to UK, Germany, Italy and 1 to Estonia. A few pressed on to CENTCOM AOR.
With the addition of 4 tankers out of New Jersey, there are now at least 32 tankers observed in the overnight group. 

A considerable portion went to Morón Air Base in Spain, with others on to UK, Germany, Italy and 1 to Estonia. A few pressed on to CENTCOM AOR.
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Dmitry Stefanovich @dvsteff.bsky.social · 09/06/2025
"It isn’t very important which tactical nuclear option we choose – F-35A, a French style standoff weapon, or Tomahawk. What is important is that we choose at least one and get it into service." www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/06...
telegraph.co.uk
These are Britain’s options for tactical nuclear weapons. We must choose, and act
What weapon is not as important as whether there is one
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UK Defence Journal @ukdefencejournal.org.uk · 01/06/2025
The Ministry of Defence has published its intent to award a 15-year, £2.9 billion contract to Thales UK Limited for the in-service support of a wide range of maritime sensors used across the Royal Navy’s surface ships and submarines. ukdefencejournal.org.uk/mod-plans-hu...
ukdefencejournal.org.uk
MoD plans huge £2.9bn sensor support contract with Thales UK
The Ministry of Defence has published its intent to award a 15-year, £2.9 billion contract to Thales UK Limited for the in-service support of a wide range of maritime sensors used across the Royal Navy’s surface ships and submarines.
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Paul Cormarie @paulcormarie.bsky.social · 29/05/2025
@floriangalleri.bsky.social and my latest for @warontherocks.bsky.social. We argue that the French nuclear doctrine is at a crossroads: ambiguity, sufficiency, final warning and other concepts should be debated for a bigger French role in European deterrence warontherocks.com/2025/05/ever...
warontherocks.com
Everything Changes but Nothing Changes: Can France Overcome its Own Nuclear Doctrine? - War on the Rocks
In a recent interview broadcast live on French television, President Emmanuel Macron declared: Ever since there has been a nuclear doctrine since Charles
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Sebastian Bae @sebastianbae.bsky.social · 06/04/2025
🏆 To celebrate the arrival of my "Littoral Commander: Baltics" #wargame, I am going to give away a signed copy of the game. Like, repost, and follow by April 8 (midnight EST)! May the odds be ever in your favor. 😉🎲 #wargaming
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Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 30/03/2025
Now that Washington is potentially an unreliable ally, the UK needs to revisit its nuclear strategy. But going it alone is costly, and partnering with France poses its own risks.
chathamhouse.org
The UK’s nuclear deterrent relies on US support – but there are no other easy alternatives
Now that Washington is potentially an unreliable ally, the UK needs to revisit its nuclear strategy. But going alone is costly, and partnering with France poses its own risks.
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Alexander Sorg @alexsorg.bsky.social · 21/03/2025
☢️ In a new European survey, more than 60 percent of respondents agree that “France's nuclear deterrent must be extended to all members of the European Union” #nukesky legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/03/2...
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Jorge Liboreiro @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
🚨 Just in: Ursula von der Leyen unveils the "Rearm Europe Plan" to mobilise up to €800 billion in defence investment across the bloc. "We're living in the most momentum and dangerous of times," she says. "We are in an era of rearmament." "This is the moment for Europe. We're ready to step up."
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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 02/03/2025
Yes. As a ballpark figure, it makes sense: to the 2% baseline add 0.5% to replace US stopping aid to Ukraine, another 0.5% to reach NATO capability goals with USA still in Europe, and 0.5%-plus to do same after Americans leave. Hence a 3.5% goal pushing towards 4%
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Paul Cormarie @paulcormarie.bsky.social · 01/03/2025
Happy Caturday
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Mark Chadbourn @chadbourn.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
Quite a big deal from NATO’s official contrarian: Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan: “We are in favor of Ukraine becoming a NATO member. This was the statement from our President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, so this is our official position.”
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Paul Cormarie @paulcormarie.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
See my latest for @lawfare.bsky.social !
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Paul Cormarie @paulcormarie.bsky.social · 21/02/2025
Maybe we finally get that “strategic dialogue” proposed by France at the public level
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Paul Cormarie @paulcormarie.bsky.social · 21/02/2025
“We need to have discussions with both the British and the French — the two European nuclear powers — about whether nuclear sharing, or at least nuclear security from the U.K. and France, could also apply to us” www.politico.eu/article/euro...
politico.eu
Europe should brace for Trump to end NATO protection, Germany’s Merz warns
Merz said there was need to discuss Germany coming under British and French nuclear protection.
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Thord Are Iversen @thelookout.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
Norway and the UK are working on a new defense agreement, to enhance strategic cooperation, more joint training and exercises, and further enhanced intelligence cooperation. The Norwegian Defence Minister calls the new agreement ambitious. www.nrk.no/tromsogfinnm...
nrk.no
Forsvarsministre signaliserer sterk Nato-allianse: – Vi er på vakt, vi trygger Norge
Norge og Storbritannia søker til hverandre når verdensbildet blir mer ustabilt.
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 18/02/2025
Europe not on the table, but on the menu
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Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 12/02/2025
Ukraine is getting nothing concrete. No security guarantees from the US of any value, no NATO membership, even it seems, no promise of future US aid for Ukraine. Maybe those rose tinted spectacles need to be removed.
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Paul Cormarie @paulcormarie.bsky.social · 12/02/2025
Moving the goalposts confirmed: “Hegseth also echoed calls by President Donald Trump for allies to increase their defense spending to 5% of their GDP, instead of 2%, saying the latter is “not enough.”” amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/02/...
amp.cnn.com
Hegseth rules out NATO membership for Ukraine and says Europe must be responsible for country’s security | CNN Politics
US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said on Wednesday that the war between Ukraine and Russia “must end,” that Kyiv joining NATO is unrealistic, and that the US will no longer prioritize European and...
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
On AUKUS: "Hegseth said President Donald J. Trump is very familiar with the agreement and equally supportive of it." www.defense.gov/News/News-St...
defense.gov
Shared Challenges, AUKUS Partnership Top Topics as U.S., Australian Defense Leaders Meet f
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Richard Marles discussed shared defense roles, security priorities, and the challenges and opportunities both
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Paul Cormarie @paulcormarie.bsky.social · 06/02/2025
Come watch me, @lindedesma.bsky.social, Vhaire Gudgeon and Zoey Young talk alliances and strategy—I’ll be talking about 🇫🇷🇬🇧 cooperation vis a vis 🇨🇳
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Edward Hunter Christie @ehunterchristie.bsky.social · 06/02/2025
France24: French defence minister says first Mirage 2000 fighter jets delivered to Ukraine www.france24.com/en/europe/20...
france24.com
French defence minister says first Mirage 2000 fighter jets delivered to Ukraine
The French air force has transferred the first of the promised Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets to Ukraine, Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu said on Thursday. President Emmanuel Macron announced in June…
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Alexander Sorg @alexsorg.bsky.social · 26/01/2025
The German Green party - currently in charge of Foreign Affairs - just released its election manifesto and they have come a LONG way with respect to nukes ☢️ Nuclear sharing is now named as a pillar of security. Joining the TPNW should only happen as a joint effort (which I read as including all NWS)
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Daniel Fiott @danielfiott.bsky.social · 27/01/2025
𝚂̶𝚞̶𝚋̶ COMMITTEE! Finally! 👏🏻 Now on to the Council… www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/pres...
europarl.europa.eu
Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann elected Chair of Security and Defence Committee | News | European Parliament
On Monday, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann (Renew Europe, Germany) was elected as the inaugural Chair of the European Parliament’s newly established Committee on Security and Defence.
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Ulrike Franke @rikefranke.eu · 26/01/2025
German Greens election programmes 2021: “The NATO 2% target, which is not based on skills& capabilities, does not provide an answer to this and we therefore reject it” 2025: “This requires a defense budget… that permanently invests significantly more than 2%/GDP in our security&defense capability”
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UK Defence Journal @ukdefencejournal.org.uk · 06/01/2025
Government responses reflect a broader strategy to rebuild and strengthen European defence partnerships post-Brexit. ukdefencejournal.org.uk/?p=55818
ukdefencejournal.org.uk
UK strengthening defence ties with European allies
Government responses reflect a broader strategy to rebuild and strengthen European defence partnerships post-Brexit.
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CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues @poni.csis.org · 20/12/2024
#NEW: PONI's 2024 Nuclear Scholars explore shifts in states’ nuclear arsenals and strategies, the effects of the Ukraine war on nuclear dynamics, and the transformative power of emerging tech on nuclear decisionmaking. Read from 19 of our next-gen scholars here: www.csis.org/analysis/hor...
csis.org
On the Horizon Vol. 7
The 2024 PONI Nuclear Scholars explore shifts in states’ nuclear arsenals and strategies, the effects of the Ukraine war on nuclear dynamics, and the transformative power of emerging tech on nuclear d...
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Linde Desmaele @lindedesma.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
🚨I am delighted to share my latest piece in @twqgw.bsky.social where I examine three competing US visions for NATO burden-sharing. While many in the US want better burden-sharing, their motivations vary quite a bit. And this matters! www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.... Thread (1/6)
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Ian Bond @cerianbond.bsky.social · 10/12/2024
I highly recommend Ed's piece on the Joint Expeditionary Force. His piece & mine carnegieendowment.org/research/202... reach many of the same conclusions, on resources, closer integration w NATO, & developing relations w Germany & Poland as the Baltic Sea littoral states not included in the JEF.
carnegieendowment.org
The Joint Expeditionary Force: Deterrent, Defender, or Distraction?
Since Baltic and Nordic member countries remain invested in the force, they should ensure that it has realistic tasks, is resourced to perform them, and contributes to NATO activities in the region.
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UK Defence Journal @ukdefencejournal.org.uk · 05/12/2024
Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, Chief of the Defence Staff, declared the world is entering a "third nuclear age," defined by proliferating technologies, geopolitical competition, and an erosion of longstanding security frameworks. ukdefencejournal.org.uk/?p=55080
ukdefencejournal.org.uk
Third nuclear age upon us warns UK defence chief
Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, Chief of the Defence Staff, declared the world is entering a "third nuclear age," defined by proliferating technologies, geopolitical competition, and an erosion of longstanding security frameworks.
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Héloïse Fayet @hfayet.bsky.social · 03/12/2024
📖 Ravie de publier un article sur le signalement stratégique dans le dernier n° de Politique étrangère @ifri.bsky.social ! Essentielles à la crédibilité de la #dissuasion, ces manœuvres sont dévoyées par certains États afin de répandre la terreur. Comment faire la part des choses ? La réponse ici ⤵️
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Dmitry Stefanovich @dvsteff.bsky.social · 03/12/2024
Behold, a somewhat approved translation of the Fundamentals of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence are now available: www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_p... #NukeSky
mid.ru
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Martijn Rasser @martijnrasser.bsky.social · 29/11/2024
Japan, U.K. and Italy to invite Saudi Arabia to next-gen fighter project asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Def... via @nikkeiasia.bsky.social
asia.nikkei.com
Japan, U.K. and Italy to invite Saudi Arabia to next-gen fighter project
Trio looks to leverage Riyadh's financial resources while ensuring security compliance
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Héloïse Fayet @hfayet.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
⚓️ Envie de contribuer à la réflexion stratégique française sur les enjeux maritimes ? D’être invité•e au plus prestigieux événement français sur ces questions ? 🖊️ Participez au prix Amiral Castex 2025, organisé par le @cesmmarine.bsky.social et @ifri.bsky.social ! www.ifri.org/fr/appel-par...
ifri.org
Appel à participation - Prix amiral Castex - Conférence navale de Paris 2025 | Ifri
Dans le cadre de la Conférence navale de Paris (CNP) 2025, l’Institut français des relations internationales (Ifri) et l’État-major de la Marine (EMM) ont le plaisir d’annoncer que la seconde édition ...
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Zachary Fryer-Biggs @zachfb.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
We need some help next month in our newsroom. A couple of weeks of contract work, reporting with our team covering the military. Beats will vary. It's a role that has been performed to perfection in the past by Kelsey Baker, Rachel Nostrant and others. Email me Zach.Biggs@Military.com
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Paul Cormarie @paulcormarie.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Gave some thoughts to BI’s Tom Porter on Trump’s Ukraine peace hopes www.businessinsider.com/trump-might-...
businessinsider.com
Trump might be able to get Ukraine and Russia to stop fighting. A real peace is harder.
A peace deal could be fragile unless Ukraine gets security guanrantees.
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Andrey Baklitskiy @baklitskiy.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
There are three possibilities: not an ICBM, an ICBM but Russia hasn’t notified the US (and China?), an ICBM and Russia has notified the US (and China?). We’ll find out soon enough
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Oleg Shakirov @shakirov2036.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
Putin signed the updated version of the basic principles of nuclear deterrence publication.pravo.gov.ru/document/000... Thread with big and small changes in RU with my comments 1/
publication.pravo.gov.ru
Указ Президента Российской Федерации от 19.11.2024 № 991 ∙ Официальное опубликование правовых актов
Указ Президента Российской Федерации от 19.11.2024 № 991 "Об утверждении Основ государственной политики Российской Федерации в области ядерного сдерживания"
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