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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 19h

This is a continuation of Merz approach of taking Germany from a mediator to a leader of the frugals in EU budget negotiations. This is quite a change of position for Berlin to be in it, and will heavily change the dynamics of these budget negotiations:

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 19h

Sometimes a hypocrite is just a person in the process of changing their opinion (and 15 years is a long time in politics).

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Minna Ålander 🌻 @alanderminna.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

This is a perfect example of the multitude of articles demanding ”better strategy” and ”more action” against Russia’s escalating hybrid war, yet fails to suggest anything new (or even any of the already explored slightly more creative options)

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

This is a new dimension of using EU military operations - originally designed for crisis management, using them this way for boardning vessels suspected of belonging to the Russian shadow fleet is a use in regards to sanctions enforcement.

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Marcel Dirsus @marceldirsus.com · 28/09/2026

Of all the bad things happening, the death of the newspaper has to be among the most consequential. We just no longer have a common reality, and reporting has been replaced by opinion, opinion and opinion. It's all reels and podcasts and personalised algorithms

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Jorge Liboreiro @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

The European Commission has asked member states to continue curbing energy demand to reduce gas and electricity consumption amid “exceptionally low” storage levels, according to a letter seen by Euronews. This all sounds very 2022…

euronews.com

Breaking news. - EU warns energy price crisis is now becoming a supply crisis

Energy Commissioner Jørgensen warned capitals that the EU is not facing an immediate gas-security crisis, but it is facing a price-and-supply squeeze that could become more difficult as winter approac...

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POLITICO Europe @politico.eu · 25/09/2026

For the first time since Brexit, Britain’s international development minister will attend an EU summit as the U.K. and EU ramp up cooperation on aid. 🔗 www.politico.eu/article/uk-e...

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Jacques Delors Centre @delorsberlin.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Donald Trump's tariff policies, an increasingly assertive China, and rising anti-EU populist parties: Should the 🌍 middle powers cooperate more closely? Our Co-Director Thu Nguyen @onethuthree.bsky.social joined @deutschewelle.dw.com's "To the point" alongside @nvondarza.bsky.social & Josef Braml.

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Changes afoot in the EU/Brussels media bubble:

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David Phinnemore @dphinnemore.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Novel proposal to use future EU accession treaties to 'adjust' the EU's treaties to deny new member states veto rights in certain areas while simultaneously phasing out over a ten year period in these areas the current unanimity requirement and so the veto rights of existing member states.

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

The SPD group in the Bundestag has put out an interesting position paper for EU reform and enlargement. Most novel idea to me is the proposal to enact broad switch to majority voting, but for old members only after a transition period which can be extended up to ten years:

Quote from the SPD position paper, in German: Als zentrales Element schlagen wir vor, den beitretenden Mitgliedstaaten keine Vetomöglichkeit ein-
zuräumen. Bei Entscheidungen, die Einstimmigkeit erfordern, verhindert ihre Ablehnung nicht das Zu-
standekommen eines Beschlusses. Diese Ungleichheit unter den Mitgliedstaaten wäre aber nur tempo-
rär. Der Europäischen Rat hat sich in regelmäßigen Abständen damit zu befassen, ob der Wegfall des
Vetos auch auf die bisherigen Mitgliedstaaten ausgedehnt wird. Der Europäische Rat kann diesen
Schritt zu mehr Handlungsfähigkeit beschleunigen oder verzögern, aufhalten kann er ihn jedoch
nicht. Das Verfahren wäre wie folgt: Alle zwei Jahre muss der Europäische Rat entscheiden, ob der
Wegfall des Vetos auch auf die bisherigen Mitgliedstaaten ausgedehnt wird. Beim ersten Mal entscheidet
er noch einstimmig darüber, bei jeder nachfolgenden Überprüfung sinkt jedoch das Mehrheitserfordernis:
qualifizierte Mehrheit, einfache Mehrheit, umgekehrt qualifizierte Mehrheit. Spätestens nach zehn Jah-
ren ist die Abschaffung des Einstimmigkeitsprinzips für alle gültig, ab dann werden grundsätzlich
alle Entscheidungen mit qualifizierter Mehrheit getroffen. Von der Abschaffung des Einstimmigkeitsprin-
zips sollen nur jene Beschlüsse ausgenommen sein, die nicht auf einer begrenzten Einzelermächtigung
beruhen, die zur Ausweitung von Zuständigkeiten führen oder denen die nationalen Parlamente zustim-
men müssen, wie etwa dem Eigenmittelbeschluss. Im Bereich der Gesetzgebung würde zudem das Eu-
ropäische Parlament durch volle Mitentscheidung einbezogen

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Denmark really is the funniest outlier here (👋Greenland):

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Katalin Halmai @eublogo.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

‼️Népszabadság is returning on 8 October, exactly ten years after Orbán’s government shut it down. I was the paper’s Brussels correspondent when it was closed. For those of us who witnessed the destruction of Hungary’s independent press from the inside, this is a deeply personal moment. 2/1

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

On the same day the Americans are warning that Russia could also target Southern Europe with its drones. The warnings are certainly becoming more public now

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

It should not be Schadenfreude but it is a weird feeling driving an EV in a fossil fuel energy crisis. You are not as impacted, but at least in Germany the state is willing to spend billions of tax money on supporting those still much more reliant on gas.

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Alexander Clarkson @aphclarkson.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

How, exactly, am I, a mere political historian, supposed to explain this...thing that economists did for FIFTEEN YEARS....to my students?

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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 24/09/2026

That juxtaposition of "a Europe of nation states, a Europe capable of being a genuine global power" is striking. Does he truly believe these things are positively correlated? How does he think such an EU would function? Or is it just that after so many years I still haven't got used to cakeism?

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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Oh, we're still on the "significantly reformed EU" nonsense are we? Like the UK has the power to dictate terms as a returning hero or some such? Same EU as per the last 40 years at least. Be part of it or not. Full stop. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

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Phil Brickell MP @philbrickellmp.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Fantastic to see another example of close 🇬🇧 🇩🇪 co-operation. Keeping us all safe every day of the year.

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Tony Blair rejoins the growing voices of those calling for an abandonment of Labour EU red lines and reversing Brexit. But in a symbol of all that was wrong with the Remain campaign, he does so saying the UK should only rejoin if its demands on EU reform are met 🧐

So, this is not about rerunning the debates of 2016 but taking a new approach rooted in the reality of 2026.

There is no point in inching towards Europe as we feel what British public opinion might accommodate. We should be clear that we want back into a formal relationship with the EU. But it must be a Europe on a credible path to reform, a Europe of nation states, a Europe capable of being a genuine global power. Otherwise, though Britain should continue to cooperate with the EU where it is in our mutual interest to do so, and though we should always remain open to changing circumstances, Britain will show that it can and is prepared to remain independent.

Tony Blair, Executive Chairman

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Anthropic {bot} @anthropicai.xmirror.bot · 23/09/2026

Claude has discovered a previously unknown enzyme system hidden in the DNA of bacteriophages. Beside the enzyme’s gene sits a long array of repeating DNA—a structure that looks somewhat similar to CRISPR.

anthropic.com

Claude discovers a novel enzyme system with CRISPR-like repeats

Anthropic is an AI safety and research company that's working to build reliable, interpretable, and steerable AI systems.

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

AI detection is not the most reliable, and speeches in the House of Commons have quite a few ritualistic phrases that might easily be taken for AI. But still it would not surprise me if most MP assistants use AI daily, including for drafting speeches, questions and more

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

The UK and Canada ambasssadors to the EU comparing notes - maybe there is something they can learn from each other in their relationship with the EU:

X post of UK ambassador to the EU about a 'jolly good chat' to Canada's Ambassador to the EU.

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Gina-Julia Westenberger @gjwestenberger.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

3rd PhD baby is out in the world 🎉 Voting far right because your region is left-behind? Not necessarily. "Left-behind" regions — slower growth, higher unemployment, industrial decline — are said to drive votes for the radical right. My new paper in @actapolitica.bsky.social complicates this story.

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Fast forward less than a month, and MCC Brussels is relaunching itself re-branded as "FSI Freedom & Sovereignty Initiative". Again under the leadership of Frank Füredi, with much of the same people, and clearly looking for funding in the far-right media ecosystem.

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Participated in a fascinating presentation by UK MP @liambyrnemp.bsky.social today in Berlin about his book on why populists are winning and how to beat them. Especially after the recent German regional elections, the second part part with a positive message on renewal was thought-provoking:

Cover of the book "Why populists are winning and how to beat them"

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European Space Agency @esa.int · 23/09/2026

We’re strengthening our cooperation with Mistral on artificial intelligence. Together, we’ll explore secure and trusted European AI solutions for Earth observation, engineering and the next generation of space activities.

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Jan Rosenow @janrosenow.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Electrification is an energy security strategy. EVs already avoid 2.3 million barrels of oil a day. That's more than the volume that bypassed the Strait of Hormuz via the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline this summer.

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

EU long-year budget negotiations are always brutal and usually take at least one spectacular failed summit full of drama. But public accusations the European Council President has "lost touch with reality" are not a good place to be in.

politico.eu

Germany says Costa losing touch ‘with reality’ on EU budget

Berlin’s Europe minister rebuked the European Council president’s remarks to POLITICO.

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Matthew Palmer @so3brocktree.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

I wrote a piece outlining the opportunities and challenges likely to arise as a result of Canada becoming a member of the Joint Expeditionary Force. 🇨🇦 I used to work at the JEF so always interested in the organisation's development.

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Helene von Bismarck @helenebismarck.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Depressing as much as fascinating. And very much worth a read.

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Another indicator that the EPP works with the (more) far-right 'Patriots for Europe' via the national-conservative ECR: "He said ECR lawmakers sometimes negotiate with the Patriots and then with the EPP, acting as informal mediators because the EPP does not want to deal directly with the Patriots"

politico.eu

Meloni’s EU lieutenant urges Brussels to work with Le Pen

Nicola Procaccini say he is “optimistic” that French far-right leader will not be destructive for the EU.

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

2026 is when UK media shows a 'war game' about a confronation with Russia with experts on prime time TV and German premium press has invasion scenarios of Russia in the Baltics as their front page news.

FAZ front page with article "Wo würde Russland das Baltikum angreifen?

Immer wieder wird vor einer russischen Invasion des Baltikums gewarnt. Planspiele zeigen, auf welche Alarmzeichen der Westen achten muss."

Sky today confirms the commission of The Wargame, a landmark four-part series where constructed documentary meets propulsive drama, based on the award-winning Sky News podcast of the same name.

Produced by The Garden, part of ITV Studios, (Attack on London: Hunt for the 7/7 Bombers, 24 Hours in Police Custody), The Wargame takes viewers beyond the news cycle and behind closed doors into a sealed COBR-style crisis room where real-world senior politicians, military leaders and intelligence chiefs are challenged to confront a high-stakes scenario: a Russian attack on UK soil.

An impressive cross-party cast of highly experienced public figures must navigate this crisis, including Michael Gove, Nicola Sturgeon, Penny Mordaunt, Sayeeda Warsi, Harriet Harman, Jim Murphy, Ayesha Hazarika, General Sir Richard Barrons, Kim Darroch, Christopher Steele, Lord George Robertson and Anthony Scaramucci. Opposing them, a team of Russia experts, led by Keir Giles.

Set six months in the future, this gripping simulation has been developed in conjunction with leading academics, military and defence experts, including Sky News’ Security and Defence Editor Deborah Haynes, to replicate the pressure of political decision-making at the highest level.

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Bernd Hüttemann 🇪🇺 @huettemann.eu · 21/09/2026

💡 🇦🇹 🇨🇿 🇩🇰 🇩🇪 🇪🇪 🇭🇺 🇮🇹 🇱🇻 🇱🇹 🇵🇱 🇵🇹 🇸🇮 🇸🇰 are calling for a 🇪🇺 simplification push: fewer overlapping rules and reporting obligations, stronger impact assessments, an "evaluate first" approach and systematic reviews of the acquis while maintaining high social, environmental and consumer-protection standards #EUsky

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Fun fact: These 13 EU countries calling for a 'deep cleaning' of EU laws have well enough votes for a blocking minority to block new EU laws, and are just a few countries away from a pro-active majority (with France being the big one not signing):

euronews.com

13 EU countries call for 'deep cleaning' of European laws

Austria is leading a new alliance on regulatory simplification, pushing for a systematic review of how new rules would impact businesses and a "deep cleaning" of existing rules to be conducted during ...

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Or, put another way, the students now starting at university have known nothing but crisis discourse in their life. Pandemic, energy crisis, political crisis, war back in Europe, the emerging panic of self-developing AI...

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

For all the granular analysis, the recent election results really feel like a symbol of the end of the old German party system. FDP practically gone, CDU fail to get into a regional parliament for the first time, SPD except in MV an also-ran.

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Whereas EU Associate Membership will be a long-term process, full membership of the European Political Community (and, while we are at it, Eurovision) can be done almost immediately. An interesting experiment

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

After Macron's briefing yesterday, Le Pen and Bardella feel compelled to clarify their position on Russia and Ukraine: "These debates are legitimate. Foreign pressure is not. We will never tolerate a foreign power, in this case Russia, hoping to dictate our country's policy directly or indirectly"

rassemblementnational.fr

Communiqué de Marine Le Pen et Jordan Bardella sur la détérioration de la situation sécuritaire en Europe et les actions hybrides russes

Communiqués - Rassemblement National - 19 septembre 2026

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

Another fossil fuel rebate coming up in Germany. While I can understand the social reasons behind it, it also shows our vulnerabilities. Whereas since 2022 we personally made a choice for a heat pump, EV and solar, German media and society resisted as much as possible.

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Joerg Lau @joerglau.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

Greenland and Denmark, backed by European nations in NATO, together with the fabled “markets”, warded off Trump’s 🇬🇱 bid. He gets basically what the US had since ‘51, with no infringement on 🇬🇱 and 🇩🇰 sovereignty. 🇪🇺 must learn that standing up to the bully is the way to go.

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auonsson @auonsson.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Germany and Sweden are reinforcing Gotland in light of deteriorating security situation. Aerial, naval and other units are active with live weapons. It is explicitly described as not an exercise and aimed at securing logistics. "Primary focus is Russia" www.svt.se/nyheter/inri...

svt.se

Tyska förband förstärker Gotland i Nato-operation

Tyska förband rullar i dag in på Gotland i en förstärkningsoperation tillsammans med svenska Försvarsmakten. Operationen är ett test av Natos planer för hur ön ska försvaras. – Det här är ingen vanlig...

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Helene von Bismarck @helenebismarck.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Instead of debating “should we do what Canada is doing” (which is, so far, unclear), the debate could be: “how has the world changed that the EU and Canada are considering this, and how do we want to deal with this situation?“ Just a suggestion.

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Very interesting research. On this, I had a discussion this week whether polls for the AfD would have dropped if the Leipzig drone attack had been successful. My guess says no as many AfD voters are in a different information space and would have perceived even such a shock event very differently.

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Nigel Farage is now demanding briefings from the UK government over the current threats from Russia. Given his past, this raises the question that seems to be hanging over much of European politics - how to secure critical information if parties with at least sympathy for Russia gain access to it?

From Politico: "Pesky Putin: Badenoch suggested Thursday that British ministers are not acting with the same urgency as European leaders to Russia’s recent airspace violations and hybrid threats, and now Nigel Farage has joined the fray.

New man: Pointing to French president Emmanuel Macron’s decision to summon opposition leaders for talks about the Russian menace, the Reform chief said in statement: “Given how seriously the French government is taking Russian drone threats, it is fair to ask, are we doing enough? It’s high time the government started taking this threat seriously and briefed opposition leaders on the threats and consequences for U.K. security.”

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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

After Trump announced yesterday that he made an agreement with Polish Presideng Nawrocki to station 5.000 US troops in Poland. Playing European allies against each other.

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Sabine Fischer @sabfis3.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Meine Kollegin Margarete Klein schreibt hier sehr Lesenswertes über eine mögliche (Teil)Mobilmachung in #Russland nach der Staatsduma"wahl" am Sonntag. #Putins Kriegsziele in der #Ukraine bleiben maximalistisch. Die Frage ist, wie er sie durchzusetzen versucht. www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...

swp-berlin.org

Neue Mobilmachung in Russland?

Nach der Dumawahl könnte der Kreml eine neue Mobilmachung starten. Ob es dazu kommt, hängt davon ab, wie Putin militärische Ziele,...

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Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) @swp-berlin.org · 17/09/2026

EU-Kommissionspräsidentin von der Leyen hat gestern Pläne für einen neuen Sicherheitsrat und Alarmmechanismus vorgestellt. Der Vorschlag sollte vor allem darauf abzielen, auch noch die Partner der EU einzubinden, so @nvondarza.bsky.social @swp-europe.bsky.social. www.radioeins.de/programm/sen...

radioeins.de

EU plant neuen Sicherheitsrat und Alarmechanismus

Um schneller auf Bedrohungen zu reagieren, schlägt EU-Kommissionspräsidentin von der Leyen einen Alarmechanismus und einen Europäischen Sicherheitsrat vor. Das Format soll auch Partner wie Großbritann...

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