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François Heisbourg

@fheisbourg.bsky.social
13K followers 189 following 2.4K posts

Senior adviser (Europe), IISS, Special adviser, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique

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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 3h
SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1682 1 Kyiv south bridge hit twice. Traffic across Dnipeo disrupted 2. 🇺🇦 MiG 29 downes with pilot 3. 88/108 strike drones downed (46 jet powered) 4. First opearional launch of 🇺🇦 FP7 ballistic missile
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The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 21h
⚡️ Ukrainian pilot dies after MiG-29 fighter shot down by Russian missile. Redvanovich, who was 25 years old, served as the commander of the "Ghost of Kyiv" 40th Tactical Aviation Brigade.
kyivindependent.com
Ukrainian pilot dies after MiG-29 fighter shot down by Russian missile
Redvanovich, who was 25 years old, served as the commander of the "Ghost of Kyiv" 40th Tactical Aviation Brigade.
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The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 21h
⚡️ 'We're not telling' — Ukraine won't say what first FP-7 ballistic missile strike hit. Asked what the missile struck, Zelensky's communications advisor told the Kyiv Independent: "We're not telling."
kyivindependent.com
'We're not telling' — Ukraine won't say what first FP-7 ballistic missile strike hit
Asked what the missile struck, Zelensky's communications advisor told the Kyiv Independent: "We're not telling."
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The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 3h
⚡️Traffic chaos in Kyiv after Russian strikes hit key bridge Russian strikes have forced the closure of a key bridge in Kyiv, causing major traffic jams across the capital and disrupting public transport between the city's eastern and western banks, city authorities said on Oct. 2.
kyivindependent.com
Traffic chaos in Kyiv after Russian strikes hit key bridge
The Kyiv City Military Administration said on Oct. 2 that the Southern Bridge is closed in both directions.
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Le Devoir @ledevoir.com · 4h
La perspective d’une mobilisation militaire et la dégradation du climat politique attisent les appels à l’exil.
ledevoir.com
De plus en plus de Russes demandent des visas au Canada
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The Globe and Mail @theglobeandmail.com · 4h
theglobeandmail.com
With a PQ majority in reach, Quebec federalists will need all the help they can get
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon appears poised to become the province’s next premier, but with less than a third of the popular vote
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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1681 1. Big power grid attack in Kyiv area 2. 87/107 strike drones down/out (63 jet powered)
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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1680 1. 3 🇧🇪 F-16 to arrive in 🇺🇦 before end 2026 says Zelensky 2. More NASAMs delivered to 🇺🇦 3.155/188 strike drones down/out (86 jet propelled) 5 Zircon/Onyx down
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The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 29/09/2026
⚡️ Belgium to transfer 3 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine by end of 2026, Zelensky says. President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine has already received urgent ammunition shipments for F-16s from Belgium and other Western allies, including Spain.
kyivindependent.com
Belgium to transfer 3 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine by end of 2026, Zelensky says
President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine has already received urgent ammunition shipments for F-16s from Belgium and other Western allies, including Spain.
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jake200.bsky.social @jake200.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Not what Russia claims, but also not one you'd want to land near you. thedefensepost.com/2026/09/01/u...
thedefensepost.com
Ukraine Dissects Russia’s Zircon Missile, Challenges Hypersonic Claims
Ukraine has revealed information about Russia’s Zircon missile, challenging Moscow's claims that it can reach speeds of up to Mach 9.
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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Allegations of US interference roil Québécois election campaign (5 October is voting day)
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pierrebuhler.bsky.social @pierrebuhler.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
"Seul le 'oui à Poutine' était recevable, les candidats dissidents avaient été écartés, certains mis en prison, aucune voix critique ne se fera entendre à la Douma". Excellente analyse, par Marie Mendras, de la parodie électorale organisée par le Kremlin👇 conference.sciencespo.fr/content/2026...
conference.sciencespo.fr
Opération Spéciale Élections dans la Russie en guerre
Les scrutins organisés dans toute la Fédération de Russie les 18-20 septembre 2026 ont été marqués par des fraudes, des manipulations, des intimidations et des votes illégaux dans les territoires occu...
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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1679 1. 🇵🇱 loosens rules of engagement vs incoming drones & missiles 2. "Frugal 6" led by Merz issue ultimatum re next 7 year EU budget: cut or else 3. 1/1 Zircon, 2/2 Iskander-M KN-23, 106/156 strike drones (82 jer powered) down/out In round-the-clock bombing
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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1678 1. Swiss voters reject less pro Western interpretation of 🇨🇭 neutrality 2. Vucic resigns as president of Serbia 🇷🇸 in order to run for PM in next month's snap elecrions
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The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 27/09/2026
⚡️Serbia's Russian-friendly President Vucic announces resignation, plans to run for PM. Resigning early, Vucic can now run as the Serbian Progressive Party's right-wing populist candidate for prime minister in the Oct. 25 elections.
kyivindependent.com
Serbia's Russian-friendly President Vucic announces resignation, plans to run for PM
Resigning early, Vucic can now run as the Serbian Progressive Party's right-wing populist candidate for prime minister in the Oct. 25 elections.
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franceinfo @franceinfo.fr · 27/09/2026
Les électeurs suisses ont voté "non" à plus de 70%, dimanche.
l.franceinfo.fr
Les Suisses refusent à une large majorité de durcir leur neutralité, principe indissociable de l'identité du pays
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The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 28/09/2026
⚡Over 258,000 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine identified by media investigation Russian independent media outlet Mediazona, in collaboration with the BBC Russian service, has confirmed the identities of 258,989 Russian military personnel killed in Ukraine.
kyivindependent.com
Over 258,000 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine identified by media investigation
The journalists note that the actual number of deaths is likely significantly higher, as their verified information comes from public sources such as obituaries, posts by relatives, regional media rep...
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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
It's a Brit who has written what is arguably the most impressive biography of Charles de Gaullen the man built victory out of calamitous defeat and restored the Honour of France
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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1677 1. 1ST post invasion MFA meeting between 🇷🇺 Lavrov ans 🇩🇪 Wadephul ar UNGA; no progress 2 AOMZ electro-optics plant badly hit at Azov 3. 147/170 strike drones down/out (76 jet powered)
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Ulrike Franke @rikefranke.eu · 26/09/2026
In case you needed to be worried more. danwatch.dk/en/military-...
danwatch.dk
Military documents reveal how Russia has reactivated a top-secret doomsday system
Danwatch has reviewed millions of military procurement documents and can, for the first time, reveal how the Russian military has secretly carried out a vast co
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Géopolitique @geopolitique.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Russie / L'usine optique et mécanique d'Azov visée par l'attaque du 26 septembre, participe à la production d'au moins sept programmes de missiles russes.
dallas-analytics.com
More Than Sights: How the Strike on AOMZ Cuts Into Russian Missile Production
Following the 26 September strike on the Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant, Dallas Analytics is publishing new detail on the enterprise’s role in Russian missile production — material that has not previou...
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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1676 1. Macron says 🇷🇺 may mobilise 300 000 2. Arcelor Mittal steel plant in Kryvyi Rih remains closed 3. Krasnodar refinery (5.6MT pa) hit 4. 134/173 strike drones down/out
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The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 25/09/2026
⚡️ Macron cites 'several signs' Russia is preparing to mobilize 300,000 people. French President Emmanuel Macron claimed the Kremlin had been waiting to hold elections before launching another wave of mobilization.
kyivindependent.com
Macron cites 'several signs' Russia is preparing to mobilize 300,000 people
French President Emmanuel Macron claimed the Kremlin had been waiting to hold elections before launching another wave of mobilization.
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Libération @liberation.fr · 25/09/2026
❌ L’ex-candidat des Ecologistes à la présidentielle Yannick Jadot a été suspendu temporairement de son parti ➡️ l.liberation.fr/5TL
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Reuters @reuters.com · 25/09/2026
Russia's Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery suspends operations after drone attack, governor says reut.rs/4hxP0H8
reut.rs
Russia's Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery suspends operations after drone attack, governor says
Russia's air defence units destroyed about 50 drones over ​the Rostov region overnight and a ‌drone attack damaged the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery, forcing it to suspend operations temporarily, Governor Yuri ​Slyusar said on Friday.
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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1675 1. tous azimuts:🇫🇷send AD face to Yanbu; more MICA+AS missiles to🇺🇦; Pegasus air mission to Arctic 2. Strikes vs Perm Lukoil refinery; AlmazAntei plant Ulianovsk; Voronezhsintezkauchuk plant; Novoshakhtisk refinery (Rostov) 3.Starlink station burns in Mazovia🇵🇱 3. 257/295drones down
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The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 24/09/2026
⚡️Polish Deputy PM says Starlink station fire possibly Russian sabotage. Gawkowski said there were indications that the fire, which broke out at the station in Wola Krobowska, in Poland's Masovian Voivodeship, on the evening of Sept. 23, may have been an attempt to disrupt its operations.
kyivindependent.com
Polish Deputy PM says Starlink station fire possibly Russian sabotage
Gawkowski said there were indications that the fire, which broke out at the station in Wola Krobowska, in Poland's Masovian Voivodeship, on the evening of Sept. 23, may have been an attempt to disrupt...
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Helene von Bismarck @helenebismarck.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
A question to which the answer is of course he does? (Just guessing here.)
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Libération @liberation.fr · 25/09/2026
Soutien au Danemark, avertissements pour Donald Trump et Vladimir Poutine, dissuasion nucléaire avancée… Le raid aérien français, en étape dans le Grand Nord, a envoyé des signaux stratégiques tous azimuts. ➡️ l.liberation.fr/zk5
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NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 25/09/2026
❗️Ukrainian drones struck the Iskra electronics plant in Ulyanovsk, around 800 km from Ukraine, with footage showing six consecutive impacts across the facility. The Almaz-Antey plant produces semiconductor components and electronics used in Russian missiles, radars and air-defense systems. #Russia
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NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 25/09/2026
France delivered new MICA missiles and 30mm ammunition for Ukraine’s Mirage 2000 fighter jets, the French Armed Forces Ministry confirmed. France also delivered new interceptor missiles for Ukraine’s SAMP/T systems as part of an anti-ballistic missile defense package financed through the EU #Ukraine
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NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 25/09/2026
❗️Ukrainian long-range drones struck Russia’s Perm oil refinery this morning, with several large fires breaking out across the facility. The LUKOIL-operated refinery, around 1,500 km from Ukraine, is among Russia’s largest and can process about 13.1 million tons of crude annually. #Russia
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NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 25/09/2026
❗️Ukrainian drones targeted the Voronezhsintezkauchuk plant in Voronezh overnight as locals reported explosions and air-defense activity. The SIBUR-owned chemical plant produces synthetic rubber, latex and thermoplastic elastomers used in automotive, aviation and industrial applications. #Russia
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NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 25/09/2026
❗️Ukrainian forces also targeted the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in Russia’s Rostov region overnight. The facility has annual processing capacity of around 5.6 million tons and dedicated rail and river terminals. The extent of damage from the latest strike is still being assessed. #Russia
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Agence France-Presse @afp.com · 25/09/2026
⛽️ "La situation est grave": Emmanuel Macron a annoncé jeudi l'envoi de "moyens militaires" en Arabie saoudite, défendant son action internationale pour faire baisser les prix du carburant, sans toutefois exclure de devoir, à terme, baisser les taxes pour éviter leur envol ➡️ u.afp.com/S9qe
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Bloomberg News @bloomberg.com · 24/09/2026
US President Donald Trump said he does not expect any moves to put guardrails around artificial intelligence during his summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
bloom.bg
Trump Says No Moves Toward US, China AI Guardrails in Xi Summit
US President Donald Trump said he does not expect any moves to put guardrails around artificial intelligence during his summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Fedorova sanctioned by EU (including the freezing of assets)
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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
*Rubio
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Association Pour l'Ukraine, pour leur liberté et la nôtre ! @pourlukraine.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Un drone a été repéré ce matin dans le département de Suceava, en Roumanie. Les autorités locales ont suspendu les cours dans les établissements scolaires de la région. @marineleduc.bsky.social @nicolastenzer.bsky.social @fheisbourg.bsky.social
pravda.com.ua
Drone crashes near Ukrainian border in Romania
A drone crashed in Suceava County near Romania's border with Ukraine, prompting local authorities to suspend classes in four settlements.
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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1674 1.Rubia says Putin is invited to Miami G20 meeting in December 2.Latvia joins French-led dissuasion avancée initiative. All North sea and Baltic littoral states are now in, plus Greece 3. 219/282 strike drones down/out, along with 4 Zircon, 3 Iskander M Kn23, and 1 Banderol DAN T
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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Great wish Assuming US ageees, how many years will it take to set up the PAC3 production line?
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The Ukrainian Review @theukrainianreview.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
🇦🇿🇫🇷 Azerbaijan pardons Frenchman after lifting sanctions on Russian oligarch Usmanov Azerbaijani President Aliyev has pardoned 38-year-old Martin Ryan, who was sentenced to 10 years in prison in March on charges of spying for France. Ryan became the only Frenchman among the 20 pardoned.
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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1672 1. EU extends sanctions vs 🇷🇺 For 36 months instead of 6. 3 oligarchs delisted 2 🇩🇰 🇬🇱 🇺🇸 sign basing agreement 3.119 /161 strike drones down/out (72 jet powered) 3 Banderol DAN T down
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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Why not 36 ot 180?
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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
SITREP 🇺🇦 DAY 1672 1. Rosneft Kuybishev refinery burns (7 Mt pa) 2l 177/212 strike drones down out, 1/3 Kalibr down, ditto 8/8 Banderol DAN T, 22 sites hIt including by Onyx and Iskander-M KN23
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Reuters @reuters.com · 22/09/2026
Trump, Denmark, Greenland to sign deal in bid to end Arctic standoff reut.rs/4ydzmaQ
reut.rs
Trump, Denmark, Greenland to sign deal in bid to end Arctic standoff
President Donald Trump is due to meet with ‌leaders of Greenland and Denmark on Tuesday to sign a deal that will allow a larger US military presence on Greenland and could end a standoff over the strategically located and mineral-rich island.
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NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 22/09/2026
❗️Ukrainian forces struck Rosneft’s Kuibyshev Oil Refinery in Russia’s Samara region overnight. The facility has a design capacity of around 7 million tons of crude annually and produces diesel, gasoline and fuel oil. Large fires were reported near its primary distillation units following the attack.
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Ukrainska Pravda 🇺🇦 @pravda.ua · 21/09/2026
‼️ Zelenskyy was ready for elections but backed away over possible Zaluzhnyi candidacy – ex-defence minister Fedorov
pravda.com.ua
Zelenskyy was ready for elections but backed away over possible Zaluzhnyi candidacy – ex-defence minister Fedorov
Former defence minister Mykhailo Fedorov said Zelenskyy was ready to hold elections during the war but abandoned the idea because Zaluzhnyi might run.
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François Heisbourg @fheisbourg.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
36 months
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Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 21/09/2026
Trump: "Russia has unfortunately lost control of its Diesel Oil Industry due to its War with Ukraine. A large number of their Diesel refineries have been blown up & are, at least temporarily, out of commission. This ridiculous & never ending War w/Ukraine must be ended. The whole World suffers ... "
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