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Frank Kuhn

@frankkuhn.bsky.social
1.6K followers 1K following 724 posts

Doctoral Researcher @PRIF.org // Nuclear Deterrence and Arms Control // Cold War History // Military Technology, Operations and Strategy // Opinions my own

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Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Well said. 👇
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Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
“Amodei urged the UN to pursue “narrow” international agreements that ‘every member can support’ on AI safety, such as a ban on the use of models to build biological weapons.” Can somebody tell Amodei that such an agreement already exists, and that it's called the Biological Weapons Convention?

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	The disclosure came hours after AI chiefs presented to the UN Security Council, calling for greater global co-operation to address safety issues.

Amodei urged the UN to pursue “narrow” international agreements that “every member can support” on AI safety, such as a ban on the use of models to build biological weapons.

He warned it was possible runaway AI could threaten humanity, calling the technology “the most important global security issue facing the world today”.
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Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Love how the automatic target recognition software of the Saker Scout drone described as potentially “the next step in the evolution of war” in this otherwise excellent @financialtimes.com article is fairly similar to the British Brimstone missile, which is in service since 2005.
ft.com
The era of AI warfare has arrived
Autonomous systems are being rapidly integrated on the battlefield, as models advance in ways even their creators cannot fully predict
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The War Horse @thewarhorsenews.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
We obtained early data from the Marine Corps’ new fitness standards for women in combat roles after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered that women serving in combat jobs be scored against the male fitness test standard. thewarhorse.org/hegseth-mari...
thewarhorse.org
Hegseth Made the Fitness Test Harder for Women in Combat Roles. Most Female Marines Are Passing
Data shows almost all Marine females serving in combat roles have met or exceeded Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's new physical fitness standard.
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Lukas Mengelkamp @lukasmengelkamp.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Über die letzten Jahre wurde ständig über eine "europäische Bombe", notwendige Truppenstärken und einzelne Technologien diskutiert. Und darüber der politischen Kern von Abschreckung vergessen. Ohne innenpolitische und innereuropäische Stabilität und Solidarität (1/3) www.rnd.de/politik/oper...
rnd.de
Pistorius erwägt Rückholung des Operationsplans Deutschland aus Sachsen-Anhalt
Das über 1000 Seiten umfassende Dokument enthält die zentralen Vorkehrungen für den Krisen- oder Kriegsfall. Alle Landesregierungen haben eine vollständige und geheime Fassung. Der Verteidigungs­minis...
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Cornell Overfield @cornelloverfield.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Also, more bombs don’t buy more strategic effect or US security if US leaders insist on using military force for ill-defined strategic ends or highly questionable theories of change and victory.
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Claas Gefroi @claasgefroi.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Auf X hat jemand mal geschaut, was da so für Leute als AfD-Abgeordnete in den neuen Landtag von Sachsen-Anhalt einziehen werden. Hier eine kleine Auswahl:
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Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Preventive war, “hot negotiations” and “reliance in God.” What a list of alternatives this is!
Given this state of affairs, Mr. Sprague had
thought a great deal about what the US should do. He
sees only three reasonable alternatives, with possibly
a fourth. They are--
1. Gontinue the present policy. Only if the
Soviet Union engages in aggression will we attack it.
2. Preventive war. The Soviet long-range striking
force is on 27 bases. We could destroy this soviet
striking power, and if "clean" weapons were used we
could do this without killing a great many Soviet non-
combatants. Since US planes are continually flying
around the world, it should be technically easier for
us to mount a surprise attack than the soviets to do the same. After striking out the Russian strategic
bombardment capability, we could then dictate d1s-
armament terms.
3. Conduct a "hot" negotiation. Ihis, in
effect, would be to threaten the soviet Union that 1f
It did not settle on US disarmament terms we would
change our present policy against preventive war.
4. Place reliance in God to find a solution.
Mir. Sprague pointed out that during the course of his
work with the Gaither panel his resort to prayer had
substantially increased. He wonders what device the
Lord could resort to in view of past evil actions of
soviet rulers.
Given these alternatives, Mr. Sprague feels that
the better opportunities for the survival of freedom
lie in alternatives 2 and 3.
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Kampf mit Kette @kampfmitkette.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
*surprised pikachu* on the defenece if you don't have C-UAS or your own drones you get killed. Incredible. Also the part about the trees is very important...
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Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Informative podcast with @justin-br0nk.bsky.social and @michaelkofman.bsky.social on the air war over Ukraine and Russia. Around 30 minutes in, Bronk explains why the Ukrainian air defence concept against one-way attack drones is highly effective and, at the same time, infeasible for NATO. 🧵
warontherocks.com
The Air War Over Ukraine and Russia
Mike talks with Justin Bronk of RUSI about the evolving nature of airpower in the Russo-Ukrainian War. They discuss both sides’ long-range strike campaigns and...
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Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Die Hamburger und Frankfurter Friedensforschung an einem Tisch. 🍻
Sagres beer
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Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Maßnahmen gegen die Schattenflotte? @cornelloverfield.bsky.social hätte da ein paar Vorschläge. 👇
deutschlandfunk.de
Nach Leipzig-Vorfall - Stellvertretende SPD-Fraktionsvorsitzende Möller empfiehlt Maßnahmen gegen russische Schattenflotte
Die stellvertretende Vorsitzende der SPD-Bundestagsfraktion, Möller, hat als Reaktion auf den Drohnenvorfall von Leipzig verschärfte Maßnahmen gegenüber der sogenannten russischen Schattenflotte ins G...
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Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
When you’re out cycling and then get a gentle reminder to check out the latest issue of @fpri.bsky.social Orbis. 😅
A cyclist on the road A street sign giving directions to the town „Orbis“
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Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Seit Wochen kritisiert Moritz Schularick auf allen Kanälen die Beschaffungspolitik der Bundesregierung. Für @table.media durfte ich jetzt aufschreiben, wo seine Kritik zu kurz greift, warum wir nicht zu stark auf Drohnen setzen sollten und wieso Roboter keine Lösung für den Personalengpass sind.
table.media
Aufrüstung: Industrie und Experten widersprechen Schularicks Kritik an bisheriger Beschaffung
Angesichts großer Investitionen in die Rüstungsbranche streiten Fachleute über die Prioritäten. In einem offenen Brief, der Table.Briefings exklusiv vorliegt, wirft BDSV-Präsident Atzpodien dem Kiel Institut-Präsidenten Schularick vor, sich aus einer „Generalsperspektive“ zu äußern.
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Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Bei seinem Kyjiw-Besuch übergab der britische Premierminister Andy Burnham der Ukraine eingestufte Baupläne für den Storm Shadow. Damit könnte die Ukraine den Marschflugkörper künftig in Lizenz produzieren. Was das bedeutet, habe ich mit @vfunk.bsky.social von @table.media besprochen.
table.media
Koalition der Willigen: Luftverteidigung für die Ukraine bleibt ein Problem
Am 35. Unabhängigkeitstag der Ukraine versichern westliche Partner ihr weitere Unterstützung. Doch bei einem dringenden Problem können sie kaum helfen – mehr Patriot-Abwehrraketen zu beschaffen. Russland nutzt das aus und kündigt weitere Angriffe an.
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Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
❓How does technological innovation transform military conflict? 📖In our new chapter in the Routledge Handbook on Transformations of Political Violence, @niklasschoernig.bsky.social and I examine how drones, autonomous weapons and battlefield transparency are changing the way wars are fought.
taylorfrancis.com
Technological Innovation and the Transformation of Military Conflict |
How does technological innovation transform the character of military conflict? This question has occupied scholars, military officials, and policymakers for
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Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Great report! Read it now. 👇
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James Cameron @jjjcameron.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Kissinger-style secret shuttle diplomacy isn't what it was now everyone has a mobile phone with a camera.
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Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
In May 1957, Christian A. Herter (U/S) informed President Eisenhower that due to “a general lack of enthusiasm in the Senate,“ the International Atomic Energy Agency Treaty “is bogged down badly.” Maybe the difficulties of ratifying arms control treaties in the U.S. aren’t unique to the present?
190. Memorandum From the Acting Secretary of State to the President 1 

 

Washington, May 1, 1957.

 

 

SUBJECT

 

Senatorial Support for Ratification of the Statute of the International Atomic Energy Agency

 

 

It is our judgment that the International Atomic Energy Agency Treaty is bogged down badly. Hearings before the Foreign Relations Committee of the Senate are tentatively scheduled to start on May 10.2 It is reported that there is a general lack of enthusiasm in the Senate. Lewis Strauss and I have talked to Senators Hickenlooper and Knowland who appear to be not very sympathetic. Apparently, a number of Senators have been persuaded by a former employee of the Atomic Energy Commission that there are substantial objections to the Treaty. The Department of State and Atomic Energy Commission believe there are solid answers to the objections which have been raised and they are being supplied to all members of the Senate.3 

 

However, as things now stand, the Treaty seems to have a poor chance of obtaining the necessary two-thirds vote—in the absence of a strong intervention on your part.

 

In view of the urgency of this matter and the shortness of time before the Hearings start, it is recommended that you call in Senators Knowland, Hickenlooper and Bridges to impress upon them the vital significance of prompt ratification in the International Agency and to urge them to take up the cudgels for this Treaty. I believe they would respond.

 

Senator Bricker has expressed the idea that if the Treaty is to be ratified, certain reservations should be attached. He has not advised us of the nature of these reservations. You may want to include Senator Bricker in this meeting.
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Stephen Schwartz @atomicanalyst.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
On April 11, 2024, soon after Annie Jacobsen’s “Nuclear War: A Scenario” was published, I replied to her tweet about an excerpt of it in TIME, pointing out several significant factual errors (including about the origin of the “Football”). She DM’d me, asking for “a brief discussion,” adding …
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Kampf mit Kette @kampfmitkette.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Ah cool. Dieses ganze Schularick Argument basiert also auf KI Slop. Hätte diesen ollen Report mal früher richtig lesen sollen 🤡 www.kielinstitut.de/fileadmin/Da...
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Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
👋 Bye bye, 2nd MDTF in Wiesbaden: “Under LaNeve, the Army is moving a ‘Multi-Domain Task Force’ from Europe to South Korea, Army officials said.” “LaNeve has also reassigned III Armored Corps, [...] which had been focused on bolstering Army forces in Europe, to the new Western Hemisphere Command.”
wsj.com
Exclusive | New Drone Unit to Be Phased Out as Hegseth’s Army Pick Makes His Mark
Gen. Christopher LaNeve takes aim at a cutting-edge drone unit, one of several moves he has made since taking over the Army.
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James Cameron @jjjcameron.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Something that the WaPo editorial board apparently thinks is a "smaller confidence-building measure" that would actually be massive: nuclear-arsenal transparency from all nuclear-weapons states backed up by an international inspection regime. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Sweeping disarmament talks appear extremely unlikely. Better to aim for smaller confidence-building measures to reduce the risk of Armageddon.

Ideally, to avoid misunderstandings, members of the nuclear club would voluntarily notify each other in advance of tests, ballistic missile launches and major military exercises. They would also be transparent about their nuclear stocks and allow inspections by international authorities.
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Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Although I was sceptical about the idea that AI-generated text would be indistinguishable from human-generated content from the outset, my LinkedIn feed is now flooded with posts from various individuals that are all structured in exactly the same way...
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Garry Peterson @resiliencesci.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Climate change and nature loss are currently disrupting economically vital European ecological infrastructure www.nytimes.com/2026/08/06/b...
nytimes.com
Drought Threatens a Vital Economic Artery in the Heart of Europe
The Rhine conveys vessels and cargo that power European industry. Record low water levels are disrupting supply chains, adding costs and presenting fresh risks to growth.
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Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Im September rollt die erste F-35A für die Deutsche Luftwaffe in Texas vom Band. Aus diesem Anlass habe ich kürzlich mit @table.media darüber gesprochen, was die Beschaffung des US-Kampfflugzeuges für Deutschland bedeutet. (€)
table.media
F-35-Rollout: Der Zielkonflikt zwischen Unabhängigkeit und schneller Kriegstüchtigkeit
Die Beschaffung der US-Kampfjets stärkt die Interoperabilität der Luftwaffe mit ihren europäischen Nato-Partnern. Zugleich begibt sich Deutschland in eine längerfristige Abhängigkeit von den USA. Was die Beschaffung der F-35 bedeutet.
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Lukas Mengelkamp @lukasmengelkamp.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Was Frank sagt. Irritierend, dass in den Fragen die lange bekannten Kritiken an Schularicks Mantra kaum vorkommen. Unverständlich, dass bezüglich der Empfehlungen für einen "Rüstungszar" keine Einordnung erfolgt. Schließlich sollten die SPARTA-Paper aus der Vorbereitung des Interviews bekannt sein.
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Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
In der Süddeutschen Zeitung wirft der Ökonom Moritz Schularick, Präsident des Kieler Instituts für Weltwirtschaft (IfW), dem Bundesministerium der Verteidigung vor, in die falschen Waffensysteme zu investieren. Dabei zeigt er eindrücklich, dass seine militärische Kompetenz Lücken aufweist. 🧵
sueddeutsche.de
Ökonom kritisiert Pistorius: „Das 700-Milliarden-Programm droht zu verpuffen“
Der Ökonom Moritz Schularick hält nichts von den Plänen der Bundesregierung für die Bundeswehr. Für die Modernisierung müsse gezielt in Waffensysteme der Zukunft investiert werden – und nicht in alte ...
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Cornell Overfield @cornelloverfield.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
On mutual defense, this language is pure politics, as with NATO! The actual specific obligations will fall well short of “automatically go to war“ Look at NATO, but also other treaties, and they all usually provide parties leeway in what they’ll do in response. This isn’t a Paradox sim!
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Cornell Overfield @cornelloverfield.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Pakistan and Saudi signed a treaty declaring the same in September 2025. The actual obligation clause (in that and this) likely provides a lot more leeway in how the ally chooses to respond to the attack, however.
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
On the problems with Jacobsen's nuclear war scenario....
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Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
It is fascinating to see in declassified U.S. documents that the U.S. government anticipated something like the Sputnik crisis almost two years in advance. It even accelerated its own ICBM program. Starting Dec. 1955, Eisenhower was briefed once a month by the Secretary of Defense on its progress. 🧵
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James Cameron @jjjcameron.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
On current performance, it seems doubtful that this administration has the necessary expertise to negotiate a New START follow-on, even if it wanted to.
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Kampf mit Kette @kampfmitkette.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
The year is 2028. The strait of Hormuz is still closed. Fuel at the pump is now 10 dollars. The sixth pipeline across the Arabian peninsula has been opened. It got hit by a Shahed-378 the next day. The largest industry in the US is betting when Axios posts that the MoU #37 is close to being signed.
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Kampf mit Kette @kampfmitkette.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
In fast jeder Zeitung wird aktuell über Rüstung geredet und dabei beschäftigt man sich nur mit was beschafft werden soll. Selbst bei den relevanten Abgeordneten bleibt es auf dieser Ebene. Wir reden null über die großen gesetzlichen Rahmenbediengungen. 🧵
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Cornell Overfield @cornelloverfield.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
They point out that the U.S. has lots of offensive Pacific-relevant munitions, but don’t reckon with the combination of defensive shortfalls + a leadership that is clearly cost sensitive. Plus, munitions aren’t destiny, but they were the clearest key variable that the U.S. controls!
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Sven-Erik Volberg @volberg.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
I feel a lot people reading it get the wrong idea. Yes they did, it's cheap and efficient. But Ukraine uses 5k interceptors, you might say. They do, among other things. Ukraine has 60-70 000 men in AD duty. They use everything including F-15 and Patriots and IRIS-T and yes a lot of cheap drones 1/2
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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
The US state department is offering grants of up to $3mn for Maga-aligned European groups that combat “censorship” and develop “civilisational bonds” between the US and the continent. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
US to fund Trump-aligned Europeans building ‘civilisational bonds’
State department grants of up to $3mn are designed to boost groups pushing Maga-style policies
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Lukas Mengelkamp @lukasmengelkamp.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
"In puncto Reichweite und Durchschlagskraft haben sie [ballistische Raketen] ein hohes Abschreckungspotential." Ein schönes Beispiel für den Zustand der "strategischen Debatte". Aus den Eigenschaften von Waffensystemen selbst ergibt sich erst einmal gar nichts. (1/2) www.faz.net/aktuell/wirt...
faz.net
Weitreichende Raketen: Deutschland und Frankreich kooperieren
Deutschland und Frankreich bemühen sich um gemeinsame neue Projekte in der Rüstung – auch in einer bislang nur von Nuklearmächten beherrschten Technik. Zwei europäische Konzerne bringen sich in Stellu...
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Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Ganz normaler Sommer.
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Hanning Voigts @hanvoi.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Während der historischen Hitzewelle im Juni haben laut RKI mehr als 5000 Menschen in Deutschland ihr Leben verloren. www.deutschlandfunk.de/5-100-todesf...
deutschlandfunk.de
RKI-Bericht - 5.100 Todesfälle durch Hitzewelle im Juni
Die Hitzewelle im Juni hat nach Schätzungen des Robert Koch-Instituts in Deutschland zu 5.100 Todesfällen geführt. Das geht aus dem aktuellen RKI-Wochenbericht zur hitzebedingten Mortalität hervor.
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Kampf mit Kette @kampfmitkette.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Es gibt WG-Putzpläne die länger gehalten haben und besser verhandelt sind als das Iran-USA MoU
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Lukas Mengelkamp @lukasmengelkamp.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
How times have changed since William Wohlforth wrote this in 1999... direct.mit.edu/jcws/article...
Quote: "Had a U.S. president acted as Khrushchev did--for example by issuing in the country's name stern ultimatums on Berlin with absolutely no endgame in mind and then permitting them to fizzle out with no discernible result--he would surely have been punished severely at the polls and in his relations with Congress."
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Cornell Overfield @cornelloverfield.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Good take on the UK DIP! The hybrid fleet vision isn’t crazy, but it’s a massive, high-risk gamble - the RN emerges with either a dreadnought-like revolution or just the subs...
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Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
This argument is highly misleading. There is ample reporting that the CIA is actively supporting Ukraine’s strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure. Trump reportedly praised the strikes for giving him “deniability and leverage” while complaining that Putin kept “jerk[ing] him off.”
nytimes.com
The Separation: Inside the Unraveling U.S.-Ukraine Partnership
As President Trump sought a peace deal and Vladimir V. Putin sought victory, factions in the White House and Pentagon bled the Ukrainian war effort.
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Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
I am sure the French would be insulted by this, but “Forward Deterrence” really sounds A LOT like U.S. Strategic Air Command used overseas military bases in the 1950s and early 1960s, when it still operated a lot of medium bombers like the B-47 that had a rather limited combat radius. 🧵 1/4
Review of United States Overseas Military Bases, April 1960
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Marcel Dirsus @marceldirsus.com · 01/07/2026
Strongly disagree with this. We might think it's irrational for Putin to use nukes, but if he thinks the choice is between losing power (with all the consequences that entails) and using a tactical nuke, nuking Ukraine might look like the better option to him
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Lukas Mengelkamp @lukasmengelkamp.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Mein Eindruck: Wenn es um Abschreckung und Verteidigung geht, investieren wir in Deutschland gerade sehr viel in Hardware und sehr wenig in Köpfe, wenn da nicht auch noch gleich gespart wird. Dabei ist es auch relativ egal, ob man eher ein "Falke" oder eine "Taube" ist. Halte ich für fahrlässig.
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Frank Kuhn @frankkuhn.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
A. Bickel on the Atoms for Peace speech: “Our real position is that we want to continue the atomic armaments race. [...] The line of attack I have just outlined is, unfortunately, supportable by reference to some of the more eloquent passages in the President’s speech of December 8, [...].”
Memorandum by Alexander Bickel of the Policy Planning Staff to the Consultant to the Secretary of State on Atomic Energy Affairs (Smith)
secret
[Washington,] April 29, 1954.

Russian Note of April 27

It seems to me that from the point of view of public reaction, the most damaging point made by the Russian note is this: The Russians say in substance that we talked big in public before the U.N., emphasized the perils of the atomic age and suggested that we desired to meet them and were prepared to come forward with a new approach to them, but, when it came to private talks, we revealed our real position which is quite different. Our real position is that we want to continue the atomic armaments race. All our vaunted new approach turned out to be was a piddling proposal for an insignificant international pool. This shows our bad faith.

The line of attack I have just outlined is, unfortunately, supportable by reference to some of the more eloquent passages in the President’s speech of December 8, compared with which the paper we actually handed the Russians looks sick.

The fact that we are open to this damaging line of attack argues that we ought to do everything we can to preserve secrecy about these bilateral dealings. Should we, however, fail, it is imperative that we attempt to make an answer to this point. Our answer might be as follows:

The President’s speech correctly stated this country’s position. We realize the dangers of the atomic period and would like to mitigate them, if this can be done without prejudice to our security. But, experience has taught us the difficulties. We tried to negotiate disarmament before. So we thought perhaps a gradual approach might ease matters. That was the central idea of the President’s speech. We have acted on that idea, and presented the rudiments of a plan to get started. We have no panaceas, no total immediate
[Page 1403]
solution, and the President promised none. We hoped that if the Russians would in good faith join wi…
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CNTR | Arms Control Research @cntrarmscontrol.org · 19/06/2026
New CNTR Fact Sheet: Human Enhancement @niklasschoernig.bsky.social & Bernhard Koch explain different forms of enhancement and their military use as well as ethical perspectives. Read in open access ⬇️ www.cntrarmscontrol.org/fileadmin/Me...
cntrarmscontrol.org
Human Enhancement
CNTR Fact Sheet by Niklas Schörnig and Bernhard Koch
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