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Kingston Reif

@kingstonareif.bsky.social
1K followers 431 following 1.3K posts

Senior International/Defense researcher at the RAND Corporation. Former DASD for Threat Reduction and Arms Control + Arms Control Association. Wisconsin sports fanatic. Personal account.

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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
“Middle East Oil Exports Rebound as Iran’s Chokehold on Hormuz Breaks Down”
wsj.com
Middle East Oil Exports Rebound as Iran’s Chokehold on Hormuz Breaks Down
The erosion of Iran’s position comes as the U.S. Navy and Gulf oil producers have become better at fending off or evading Iranian attacks, allowing more tankers to cross the strait.
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
“Trump Administration Presses China on Suspected Nuclear Tests in Confidential Talks”
wsj.com
Exclusive | Trump Administration Presses China on Suspected Nuclear Tests in Confidential Talks
The discussions have occurred on the sidelines of multilateral meetings in Geneva, New York and Casablanca, Morocco.
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Reposted by Kingston Reif
Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
I have a new article out (with James McKeon) on the lessons from nuclear weapons verification for AI verification efforts today. www.ankitpanda.com/newsletter/t...
ankitpanda.com
Trust, but P(verify): Lessons From Nuclear Verification for AI — Ankit Panda
Efforts to verify constraints on artificial intelligence can benefit from the long, difficult story of nuclear weapons verification.
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
“Aiming for denuclearization under the current circumstances,” Mr. Lee warned, “guarantees that nothing will be accomplished.”
nytimes.com
​Urging Pivot on North Korea, South’s Leader Calls for Easing Sanctions
President Trump should demand that North Korea freeze, not eliminate, its nuclear weapons program, President Lee Jae Myung said in an interview.
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
“Because at the end of the day you have to have not simply the destruction of facilities, you have to have a long-term and enforceable commitment to never pursue a nuclear weapon, ever,” Mr. Rubio said.
nytimes.com
Trump Aides Seek to Jump Start Diplomacy With Iran as Crisis Widens
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that U.S. negotiators had restarted conversations about Iran’s nuclear program, but that there were no breakthroughs.
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
"Pentagon estimates $43.6B in Iran war costs, replacement needs"
insidedefense.com
Pentagon estimates $43.6B in Iran war costs, replacement needs | InsideDefense.com
The Defense Department has obligated approximately $11.2 billion for operational costs associated with Operation Epic Fury and estimates it will need another $32.4 billion to replenish expended muniti...
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
"China is Rapidly Expanding its Nuclear Arsenal. How Should the US React?"
inkstickmedia.com
China is Rapidly Expanding its Nuclear Arsenal. How Should the US React?
When Xi Jinping visits the White House on Sept. 24, it’s uncertain whether he and Trump will discuss nuclear weapons — but they should.
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
“U.S. and China Discuss System to Warn of A.I. National Security Issues”
nytimes.com
U.S. and China Discuss System to Warn of A.I. National Security Issues
In a meeting on Sunday, the U.S. Treasury secretary and China’s vice premier talked about having a shared vision on the goals of artificial intelligence and the threats it poses.
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
"Someday, as unlikely as it may seem now, the two countries may realize that they do not have to agree on who should win the AI race to agree that neither side can afford to lose control of it."
time.com
How to Make the U.S.-China AI Race Less Dangerous
"The United States and China aren’t ready to slow down but they still have plenty to talk about," write Julian Gewritz and Matt Sheehan.
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
“String of daring Russian plots is testing Washington’s restraint”
washingtonpost.com
String of daring Russian plots is testing Washington’s restraint
A strike on a train that imperiled former European leaders and CIA officers is among a spate of attacks that risked a dangerous escalation with the West, experts say.
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
👀 “The first phase of the Golden Dome air and missile defense program focuses on deterring a strike aimed at killing U.S. leadership and a limited attack by a rogue nation against the homeland, Gen. Michael Guetlein said in remarks…on Sept. 17.”
aviationweek.com
Key Focus For First Golden Dome Rollout: Protect Leadership | Aviation Week
The Golden Dome air and missile defense program's first phase focuses on deterring a strike aimed at killing U.S. leadership and a limited attack by a rogue nation against the homeland.
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
"Putting Armageddon on Autopilot: How Artificial Intelligence Could Make Nuclear Threats More Effective"
warontherocks.com
Putting Armageddon on Autopilot: How Artificial Intelligence Could Make Nuclear Threats More Effective
Nine countries now possess nuclear weapons. Arms control agreements painstakingly built over decades have collapsed. Geopolitical competition is
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
"America’s Missing Military Revolution"
foreignaffairs.com
America’s Missing Military Revolution
Why Washington still risks losing the tech race.
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
“Using AI and the current algorithms, I can actually present better information to the warfighter to allow the warfighter to make a better-informed decision on a more rapid timeline and start approaching machine speeds,” he said.
insidedefense.com
Golden Dome eyes AI to accelerate homeland defense decisions | InsideDefense.com
Golden Dome for America will use artificial intelligence to compress homeland defense decisions from human to machine speed while allowing commanders to increase the degree of automation as an attack ...
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
“When we stood up, the first thing we did was make affordability and scalability the number one objective for what we're trying to build,” Guetlein said.. “We could quickly, easily set a number of requirements on the table and bankrupt the nation.”
insidedefense.com
Guetlein details how Golden Dome aims to reconcile sweeping mandate with cost | InsideDefense.com
Golden Dome planners are designing the $185 billion homeland missile defense system around how adversaries are expected to attack and what they are likely to target -- offering new insight into how th...
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
"How to Broker Peace in Ukraine"
foreignaffairs.com
How to Broker Peace in Ukraine
Decades of hard-won mediation experience point the way.
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
“Nuclear Norms in an Era of Renewed Nuclear Competition”
orbisjournal.org
Nuclear Norms in an Era of Renewed Nuclear Competition
Explore the implications of the New START expiration on nuclear forces and the future of nuclear arms control.
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
“..the technology is going to continue to get much better very quickly, raising urgent questions about biological risks and loss of control. We are in a period of exponential development, and there are only two ways to respond: too early or too late..The world has missed its chance to be too early.”
nytimes.com
As Fears of A.I. Catastrophe Magnify, Washington Stirs, but Mostly Slumbers
President Trump has been at the forefront of the “what-me-worry?” crowd, refusing to engage on how to balance the risks and rewards of A.I.
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
“U.S. forces fired 60 to 70 Patriot interceptors to counter the attack, which consisted of about 20 ballistic missiles, some of the officials said. The U.S. also fired more than a dozen Thaad interceptors, one of the officials said.”
wsj.com
The U.S. Is Burning Through Its Supply of Interceptors to Counter Iran’s Attacks
The U.S. had to expend 70 or more Patriots and Thaads to blunt an attack on Jordan.
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
“Sure, we can defend against a massive strategic attack on this country..We can deter it, and that’s through mutually assured extinction..That’s not good enough"
washingtontimes.com
‘Right now we’re not defended’: U.S. has almost no way to stop modern missiles, senator warns
The U.S. has very few options right now to protect the homeland against 21st-century missile attacks, a key senator said Monday.
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
"if the United States is not willing to station substantial conventional forces to assist in Europe’s defense, then there’s little reason for Putin (or other leaders) to conclude that Washington will ever take the awesome step of using nuclear weapons."
foreignaffairs.com
The Crumbling Defense of Europe
Trump has already undermined NATO and allied deterrence.
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
"‘It was time’ to admit US has weapons in orbit, Space Force’s new leader says"
defenseone.com
‘It was time’ to admit US has weapons in orbit, Space Force’s new leader says
Russian and Chinese advances led to the revelation, Gen. Douglas Schiess says at AFA.
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
"Design for Ground Support of Sentinel ‘Has Really Turned the Corner’"
defensedaily.com
Design for Ground Support of Sentinel 'Has Really Turned the Corner' - Defense Daily
NATIONAL HARBOR, Md.--The ground support segment for the future LGM-35A intercontinental ballistic missile by Northrop Grumman "has really turned the
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Fischer said some analyses like the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) were so unrealistic compared to what..Gen, Michael Guetlein is building because “..there’s not a clear understanding of this layered defense that we’re looking at when it comes to defending our homeland.”
defensedaily.com
Fischer Says Golden Dome Boosters Need To Increase Capitol Hill Support With Information, Warns Against Counting On Reconciliation - Defense Daily
NATIONAL HARBOR, Md. – A Senate Armed Services panel chair today said boosters of the Golden Dome program still have work to do to increase support on
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
"This Is Not Your Father’s Nuclear Flight Test Vehicle"
warontherocks.com
This Is Not Your Father’s Nuclear Flight Test Vehicle
For decades, the United States’ nuclear weapons enterprise has wrestled with an institutional paradox. On one hand is the imperative to make the complex
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
"USAF, Northrop Detail Sentinel ICBM ‘Vertical Stacking’ Demo, On Track For Flight Tests In 2027"
defensedaily.com
USAF, Northrop Detail Sentinel ICBM ‘Vertical Stacking’ Demo, On Track For Flight Tests In 2027 - Defense Daily
The Air Force and Northrop Grumman on Monday said they recently completed a full assembly of the LGM-35A Sentinel future intercontinental ballistic
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
"US military has ‘on-orbit’ space weapons, Air Force Secretary reveals"
defenseone.com
US military has ‘on-orbit’ space weapons, Air Force Secretary reveals
Experts said the acknowledgment may lead to overt action by China, Russia.
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
"China’s Top Spy Chief Warns A.I. Is a Threat to Party Rule"
nytimes.com
China’s Top Spy Chief Warns A.I. Is a Threat to Party Rule
Even as Beijing urges the United States not to hype the dangers of A.I., its own spy chief is framing the technology as a threat to the Communist Party’s security.
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
“Any cooperation we are able to achieve with China will extend the amount of time we have to spend on pacing the frontier within the democratic nations. We should aim for the higher levels while seeing the lower levels as much more likely and realistic.”
darioamodei.com
Dario Amodei — We Must Pace the Frontier
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
"SPECIAL REPORT: Strait of Hormuz fight exposes Navy gaps, drives push for new capabilities"
insidedefense.com
SPECIAL REPORT: Strait of Hormuz fight exposes Navy gaps, drives push for new capabilities | InsideDefense.com
Six months after the United States launched the war on Iran and four months after beginning a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, commercial shipping remains choked, while combat operations have e...
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
"Space Force tallies $11.6B cost for Boeing-led strategic communications satellite program"
insidedefense.com
Space Force tallies $11.6B cost for Boeing-led strategic communications satellite program | InsideDefense.com
The Space Force has tallied an $11.6 billion price tag for its Evolved Strategic SATCOM space development and production program, a Boeing-led project to develop and buy seven satellites that will rep...
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
"Pentagon proposes $1.5B funding shift to support AI push, Epic Fury priorities"
insidedefense.com
Pentagon proposes $1.5B funding shift to support AI push, Epic Fury priorities | InsideDefense.com
The Pentagon seeks congressional authority to shift nearly $1.5 billion in funding toward emerging priorities, including a major expansion of artificial intelligence capabilities and changing requirem...
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
"AI-powered biowarfare is coming; the Army lays plans to ‘fight through’ it"
defenseone.com
AI-powered biowarfare is coming; the Army lays plans to ‘fight through’ it
A new strategy aims to prepare to “deploy, fight, and win decisively in a bio-contested environment” by 2035.
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
"NNSA Completes B61-13 Canned Subassembly Production at Y-12 Seven Months Ahead of Schedule"
energy.gov
NNSA Completes B61-13 Canned Subassembly Production at Y-12 Seven Months Ahead of Schedule
NNSA announced today that the Y-12 National Security Complex has completed production of the B61-13 Canned Subassemblies (CSAs) required to support the last production unit needs for the B61-13 progra...
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
"Anthropic Says It Blocked Possible Efforts to Build Biological Weapons"
nytimes.com
Anthropic Says It Blocked Possible Efforts to Build Biological Weapons
In a new report, the A.I. start-up added that it could not determine whether the research was legitimate or nefarious, leading the company to shut down the work.
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
"Williams cited the rebidding of the Savannah River plutonium pit production contract and the decision to pursue commercial partners for the lithium mission as two examples of his effort to depart from NNSA’s traditional approach to major projects."
exchangemonitor.com
EXCLUSIVE: Williams seeks to shake up NNSA’s ‘business as usual’ - ExchangeMonitor
Nearly a year into his tenure leading the National Nuclear Security Administration, Brandon Williams says some of his most difficult decisions have
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
"If U.S. and Saudi officials agree on the need for enrichment. American companies and their foreign suppliers would construct a facility that would enrich uranium to a level of 5%. Further study by the two sides could lead to uranium enrichment that would approach 20%"
wsj.com
Saudi Nuclear Agreement Could Open a Path to 20% Enrichment
Allowing Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium to such levels risks bolstering congressional opposition to the deal.
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
But now, the Trump administration has explicitly embraced the goal of defending against “peer and near-peer adversaries”—a phrase that in Pentagon usage means Russia and China. This has surely made Moscow and Beijing believe that they were right all along.
foreignaffairs.com
The Powder Keg in Outer Space
How to head off a new arms competition.
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt said the Leipzig airport attack followed the "well-established pattern of Russian hybrid operations in Europe" and the assumption was that Germany would be targeted again.
bbc.com
Germany says Russia behind Leipzig airport drone attack
A drone carrying an explosive device was discovered at the airport close to Ukrainian cargo planes on 4 August.
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
“For Trump, the Iran War Is Stuck Between Combat and Genuine Peace”
nytimes.com
For Trump, the Iran War Is Stuck Between Combat and Genuine Peace
The war has deteriorated over the past six months into Mr. Trump’s own version of a “forever war,” with no clear goals and no end in sight.
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
"US rebukes Europeans over ‘sea of red’ military gaps"
ft.com
US rebukes Europeans over ‘sea of red’ military gaps
‘We hope to see more from countries like the United Kingdom,’ says Pentagon policy chief
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
"South Korea, U.S. Stall on Uranium Enrichment Talks"
chosun.com
South Korea, U.S. Stall on Uranium Enrichment Talks
South Korea, U.S. Stall on Uranium Enrichment Talks Experts urge South Korea to frame enrichment as joint effort to replace Russian supply chains
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
"The Golden Dome event put more threats in the air than any previous MDA test and became “the most complex integrated missile defense test that we have pulled off as a nation,” Guetlein said.
insidedefense.com
Golden Dome test 'successes' arrive as independent MDA scrutiny disappears | InsideDefense.com
Pentagon leaders are declaring a string of unusually rapid test successes for Golden Dome for America -- including what the program's director calls the most complex integrated missile defense test th...
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
“Trump admin sends Saudi nuclear deal that includes enrichment pathway to Congress”
cnn.com
Trump admin sends Saudi nuclear deal that includes enrichment pathway to Congress | CNN Politics
The Trump administration sent the nuclear cooperation agreement it had signed with Saudi Arabia to Congress on Monday, an administration official and multiple congressional aides told CNN.
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
"As a result, at the foundation of everything we’ve done in Golden Dome, we’ve architected two fundamentals. One is economics, and one is affordability. We cannot protect this nation and bankrupt it at the same time so we’ve gotta figure out how to do this economically.”
defensedaily.com
Guetlein On Golden Dome: 'We Cannot Protect This Nation And Bankrupt It At The Same Time' - Defense Daily
While there has been criticism among missile defense advocates of Golden Dome's development pace after the signing of an executive order in January last
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
“We tend to estimate what we see,” he said. “New technologies might provide the opportunity for that, I think we mentioned that as a possibility, but it’s not what you would have in the near term, which is what they’re trying to do.”
airandspaceforces.com
Golden Dome Secrecy Poses Challenge for Estimating Costs
Independent analysts have struggled to project a cost for the Pentagon's Golden Dome program due to secrecy around the architecture.
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
“They realize there is a gap in capability that may play to our strengths,” said Evan S. Medeiros... “On nuclear arms control and on missile defense, we can’t get them to engage. But they appear more interested in the case of A.I.”
nytimes.com
The U.S. Military Wants A.I. Dominance. Feuds and China May Thwart It.
The administration is veering wildly in its response to the national security implications of A.I. as China, America’s main technological and military rival, charges ahead.
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
“US pulls last aircraft carrier in Asia as Trump focuses on Iran and the Western Hemisphere”
apnews.com
US pulls last aircraft carrier in Asia as Trump focuses on Iran and the Western Hemisphere
President Donald Trump’s war against Iran is stretching the limits of the nation’s aircraft carriers and leaving the western Pacific without one of the key American warships.
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
“AI, China, and the New Risks to U.S. Security: Q&A with Matan Chorev”
rand.org
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Kingston Reif @kingstonareif.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
“Washington similarly tried to force Iran’s hand earlier in the war when it imposed the naval blockade just days after reaching a fragile ceasefire. Some U.S. officials were confident at the time that the blockade would force Iran to settle the war on their terms within weeks.”
wsj.com
The Iran War Is Now About Who Blinks First Under Economic Pressure
The Trump administration is doubling down on sanctions and a naval blockade, while Tehran bets high oil prices will force Washington to relent.
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