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Marek Giebel

@marekgiebel.bsky.social
1.1K followers 835 following 42 posts

Associate Professor at the Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School Research interests: Industrial Organization, Law and Economics, Intellectual Property Rights, and Finance www.marekgiebel.com

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Reposted by Marek Giebel
Joshua Goodman @joshua-goodman.com · 20h
Accelerating prepared students in middle school math has positive effects in high school and college, including closing gender gaps in core STEM majors (sci/math/engineering). Put differently, failure to provide acceleration exacerbates such gaps and generates lots of lost intellectual potential.
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The Quarterly Journal of Economics @qjeharvard.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Recently accepted by #QJE: “How Does Wage Inequality Affect the Labor Movement?” by Biasi (@barbarabiasi.com), Cullen, Gilman (@juliagilman.bsky.social), and Roussille: doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
doi.org
How Does Wage Inequality Affect the Labor Movement?*
Abstract. This paper provides evidence on how wage inequality among workers affects the labor movement using three complementary research designs: a vignet
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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 25/09/2026
The chat logs of AI companies are often used to measure what work AI actually does. A Bick, A Blandin, D Deming, & T Schumacher argue however that chat classifiers cannot see a user’s occupation and therefore classify use into a few generic activities and misattribute AI use across occupations.
Figure: Illustration of the classification chain for a chat asking for help analysing trends in data and showing how a task misclassification becomes an occupation misclassification.

The chat logs of AI companies are often used to measure what work AI actually does. This column uses a nationally representative US survey that links generative AI use to workers’ detailed tasks and compares them with task shares derived from Anthropic, Microsoft, and OpenAI chat data. The four sources disagree sharply, largely because chat classifiers cannot see a user’s occupation and therefore classify use into a few generic activities. Chat logs are informative but on their own can misattribute AI use across occupations and cannot substitute for measurement anchored in who the worker is.
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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 25/09/2026
Data from France show that firms respond to increases in the minimum wage not only by employing fewer workers, but also by increasing training and flattening management hierarchies. Nicholas Lawson, Claire Lelarge, Grigorios Spanos cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Figure: Estimated firm responses to a 3.7% rise in minimum labour costs. Point estimates at average initial exposure to the GMR2 wage-guarantee group. Left panel: percentage changes. Right panel: percentage-point changes (pp). Revenue TFP is revenue-based total factor productivity, not physical productivity. The training estimate concerns production workers in relatively simple firms. Confidence intervals are not shown

How far can minimum wages rise without damaging jobs and output? This column uses evidence from France to show that firms respond not only by employing fewer workers, but also by increasing training and flattening management hierarchies. A quantitative model suggests that this reorganisation cushions the impact of moderate increases. Higher revenue productivity, however, is not a free efficiency gain, and the adjustment becomes less effective as wage floors rise.
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Tania Babina @taniababina.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
New data and new paper! The new AI investments data introduce 7 AI subtechnology categories: general AI, machine learning, natural language processing, computer vision, generative AI, agentic AI, and other AI, and builds firm-level AI panels through 2024. Links in comments.
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Reposted by Marek Giebel
Ben Bushong @benbushong.com · 18/09/2026
In the past I have found it frustrating that you cannot filter AEA JOE listings by some sense of "top schools" versus "non-top". Here's an attempt to address that. Feel free to share. econjobs.netlify.app
econjobs.netlify.app
Econ Job Tracker
Search for economics jobs by ranking. Postings from major listing sources; historical data from AEA JOE.
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
This paper by @davidautor.bsky.social & co-authors is one of the most important papers to date in the space of what AI does to learning. It's highly credible. And very much consistent with my own experience with use of agentic AI in research and teaching. www.nber.org/papers/w35720
nber.org
Does AI Assistance Enhance or Erode Expertise? Evidence from a Three-Month Field Experiment in Patent Drafting
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
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Charlotte Cavaille @ccavaille.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Small-N assessment: AI makes everyone more productive output-wise, but I, as a senior person with prior knowledge benefit the most, while my ("junior") students struggle with actual learning. This paper proves this with a larg(er)-N causal design: www.nber.org/papers/w35720
nber.org
Does AI Assistance Enhance or Erode Expertise? Evidence from a Three-Month Field Experiment in Patent Drafting
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
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Tatyana Deryugina @tderyugina.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
#EconSky: it’s once again time for our call for papers/proposals for the annual NBER conference+publication combo on Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy (EEPE). Submit here by October 20th, 2026. More details below. And please spread the word! conference.nber.org/confsubmit/b...
conference.nber.org
Submission: NBER Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy Conference, Page 1 of 2 - MyNBER
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Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
4-year postdoc(s) at Copenhagen Business School on project The Business of Corruption: Why Business Elites Collude or Combat Political Corruption, led by @mkjustesen.bsky.social. Start: summer 2027, deadline 18 September. www.cbs.dk/en/about-cbs...
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NBER @nber.org · 11/09/2026
Providing the first large-scale economic evidence on the frequency and purpose of workplace meetings, using administrative data from Norway, from David J. Deming, Katrine V. Løken, Alexander Willén, and Yaling Xu www.nber.org/papers/w35706
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Lukas Lehner @lukaslehner.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Glad to see our study on Walmart's consequences for poverty and food hardship appear alongside a number of exciting studies in the recent Issue of #LabourEconomics Special Issue: www.sciencedirect.com/special-issu... Our article: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 26/08/2026
Eric S Rosengren & Niccolò Comati argue that the risks that led to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank were visible the whole time, and that the collapse is less a story of hidden danger than of a supervisory system that polices process rather than risk. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky
Figure shows the cumulative asset growth of Silicon Valley Bank compared to the FDIC system.

For its entire 15-year life as a regional bank until its collapse in 2023, Silicon Valley Bank held the same risky bet. This column argues that the risks were visible the whole time. The bank experienced rapid asset and stock price growth and maintained a high-risk profile with long-term securities funded by largely uninsured demand deposits. However, supervisors reacted only once unrecognised held-to-maturity losses materialised following the 2022-2023 interest rate increases. Thus, Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse is less a story of hidden danger than of a supervisory system that polices process rather than risk.
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NBER @nber.org · 20/08/2026
Providing a guide on imperfect competition in labor markets, focusing on the firm-specific labor supply elasticity as the definition of a firm’s labor market power, from Sydnee Caldwell, Arindrajit Dube, and Suresh Naidu www.nber.org/papers/w35608
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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 14/08/2026
Marco Perugini argues that the delay into entry in full force of the EU's AI Act results in a double bind in which Europe loses regulatory sovereignty whether it enforces its own rules or retreats from them. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky
The European Union's AI Act – the world’s most ambitious regulatory framework for artificial intelligence to date – was supposed to enter into full effect on 2 August 2026. But while the AI Act's transparency layer has come into effect, obliging providers to inform individuals when they interact with an AI system, its high-risk regime – covering biometric identification, recruitment systems, credit scoring, law enforcement, and border control – has been delayed. This column argues that the result is a double bind in which Europe loses regulatory sovereignty whether it enforces its own rules or retreats from them.
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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 11/08/2026
European patent data show that macroprudential tightening is followed by lower patenting and lower patent quality. However, financial-resilience tools carry no measurable short-run innovation cost and may support innovation over longer horizons. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky
Figure shows a map of Europe and how macroprudential tightening increased across European countries after CRR/CRD IV.

Macroprudential policy is designed to make the financial system safer, but it can also reshape the finance available to innovative firms. Using patent data matched to 2,844 firms in 21 European countries over 1990-2021, this column finds that macroprudential tightening is followed by lower patenting and lower patent quality. The effect is strongest when credit growth is weak and among financially constrained firms, and it is concentrated in instruments that directly restrict credit. By contrast, financial-resilience tools carry no measurable short-run innovation cost and may support innovation over longer horizons. The findings suggest that policymakers can protect financial stability without systematically penalising innovation, provided they are selective about which instruments they deploy.
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Applied Young Economists' Webinar @ayew.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
#econsky 🚨Reminder: You have 2 weeks left to submit your work! We’re looking forward to receiving your submissions!
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NBER @nber.org · 09/08/2026
Rival firms linked by common ownership are more likely to form cartels and to sustain them longer. After a cartel dissolves, those ownership ties are reduced, from Vincent Abraham, @florianederer.bsky.social, and Catarina Marvao www.nber.org/papers/w35565
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The Review of Economic Studies (REStud) @reveconstudies.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
We examine the welfare cost of FX reserves in a small open economy where international arbitrage is driven by global financial intermediaries. This cost can be negative for safe-haven currencies. New paper by Bacchetta, Benhima, and Berthold restud.com/foreign-exch... #REStud #EconSky
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Marek Giebel @marekgiebel.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Thank you, @profschrepel.bsky.social, for including our paper (with @anjaroesner.bsky.social) in your reading suggestions! Interested readers can access our paper on the relationship between managerial incentives and collusion here: doi.org/10.1016/j.je...
doi.org
Redirecting
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Reposted by Marek Giebel
NBER @nber.org · 25/07/2026
Analysis of 11 million US patents shows inventions have spread out in idea space since 1836, helping explain weaker spillovers and lower research productivity, from Ina Ganguli, Jeffrey Lin, Vitaly Meursault, and Nicholas F. Reynolds www.nber.org/papers/w35499
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Jason Fletcher @jasonmfletcher.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
Time to update our timeline of projects at americanmortalityproject.lafollette.wisc.edu Work on county health departments with @hamidnb.bsky.social Free access here: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 24/07/2026
Damien Capelle et al. show that the binding constraint on completing the EU banking union is forming relationships and entering markets, not prices or quantities on existing loans, and these barriers correlate with regulatory difference. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky
Figure shows the average policy distance by country pair. The average bilateral policy distance is 25%: a typical pair of euro area countries still differs on roughly one in four regulatory variables, despite a decade of banking union reforms – the Single Supervisory Mechanism, the Single Resolution Mechanism, and partial harmonisation of deposit insurance.

Despite major institutional reforms, the European Banking Union remains incomplete. Banking markets remain fragmented along national lines, which constrains Europe’s growth potential. This column uses loan-level data from the European credit registry combined with the bank group structure dataset to quantify where the barriers to cross-border lending lie, what role cross-country regulatory differences play, and how much output Europe forgoes as a result. It finds that the binding constraints sit on the extensive margin, that is, forming relationships and entering markets, that they are closely related to regulatory fragmentation, and that lifting them may deliver sizeable economic gains.
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NBER @nber.org · 17/07/2026
Data from 380 trillion tokens of AI consumption across more than 400 models (2 percent of global AI consumption) shows detailed effects of AI on firms, markets, and workers, from Nicola Borri, Aleh Tsyvinski, and Yukun Liu www.nber.org/papers/w35451
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NBER @nber.org · 17/07/2026
Competition reduces the rate of suboptimal choices, but does not drive it to zero, from David B. Huffman, Lamar Pierce, Alex Rees-Jones, and Germán J. Reyes www.nber.org/papers/w35454
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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 30/06/2026
T Choukhmane, T de Silva, W Lin, & M Akuzawa show that AI financial advice is broadly consistent with what economists would prescribe. However, it also varies by how prompts are written, with different advice by gender, financial literacy, and prior AI experience. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky
Figure shows observed behaviour versus LLM-recommended behaviour over the life cycle. Red: survey respondents’ reported behaviour; green: one-shot LLM advice at current circumstances; blue: full life cycle simulation following LLM advice each year.

The rise of generative AI has raised hopes that high-quality, personalised financial advice might finally become cheap and universally accessible. This column develops a method to quantify the impact of following AI financial advice over a lifetime. The authors find that on the decisions that matter most for long-run wealth, such as investing in diversified equity or building a savings buffer, today’s leading models give advice broadly consistent with what economists would prescribe. But what people get from AI depends as much on the model's ability as on how they write their prompts, with the advice varying by gender, financial literacy, and prior AI experience.
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The Review of Economic Studies (REStud) @reveconstudies.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
How does consumer data let platforms shape competition? Elliott, Galeotti, Koh, and Li show how platforms can use consumer data to segment markets for the benefit of firms or consumers. www.restud.com/market-segme... #REStud #EconSky
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Ethan Mollick @emollick.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
More evidence, from a large-scale study in China, that using AI hurts learning if it undermines mental effort. When homework time drops due to AI use, so do test scores. Across studies, there is a clear theme: AI tutoring in support of classes is good, using AI to "help" with homework is bad.
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Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
This paper finds that economists whose job market papers report (marginally) statistically significant results are more likely to secure academic jobs. Hiring committees prefer statistical significance; this creates incentives for researchers to p-hack.
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Marek Giebel @marekgiebel.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
🚨 New paper alert 🚨 I am happy to announce that the paper "Do managerial incentives facilitate anti-competitive behavior? Evidence from collusion" (with @anjaroesner.bsky.social , @rockwoolfonden.dk ) has been published in the Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization
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Nicholas A. Christakis @nachristakis.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
Even in Denmark, with its excellent provisions for children, parenthood marks a sharp divergence in academic careers (from employment to tenure to publications) for men and women -- for a variety of reasons reflecting both structure and agency. opus4.kobv.de/opus4-hsog/f...
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Marek Giebel @marekgiebel.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
🚨I am excited to announce our new working paper: "Artificial Intelligence, Communication, and Strategic Pricing: Evidence from Large Language Models" with @anjaroesner.bsky.social (@rockwoolfonden.dk) and Benjamin Schröder (@dice.hhu.de) Paper link (SSRN): papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
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Alex Bryson @alexbryson.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
Are you a personnel economist? Why not join us next spring in Tokyo for the 2027 COPE Conference. Submit your extended abstract now. Full details are here: personneleconomics.eu/cope2027/ @sriucl.bsky.social
personneleconomics.eu
COPE 2027 – Colloquium on Personnel Economics
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Marek Giebel @marekgiebel.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
🚨I am excited to announce our new working paper: "Artificial Intelligence, Communication, and Strategic Pricing: Evidence from Large Language Models" with @anjaroesner.bsky.social (@rockwoolfonden.dk) and Benjamin Schröder (@dice.hhu.de) Paper link (SSRN): papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
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NBER @nber.org · 08/06/2026
The five largest US tech firms are nearly doubling capex—from $380B in 2025 to $755B in 2026. They face bankruptcy unless productivity booms commensurately, from Jessica Wachter and Jonathan Wachter www.nber.org/papers/w35290
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Caitlin Myers @caitlinmyers.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Is it the phones? New NBER WP this morning with Zeke Hooper: we estimate the diffusion of the iPhone explains 33–52% of the decline in US births from 2007–2011. #econsky🧵 www.nber.org/papers/w35310
nber.org
Is the iPhone Birth Control? Causal Evidence from AT&T’s 2007–2011 Carrier Monopoly
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
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Bruegel @bruegel.org · 05/06/2026
📊 Chart of the week: Financial assets of households, by type of asset, share, 2025-Q3 📑 Read the Working Paper by Marie-Sophie Lappe and David Pinkus 🔗 buff.ly/dyJr65T #EconSky
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 02/06/2026
In a new post, I pull data from four different sources --- arXiv, NBER working papers, SSRN, and the AEA --- to look at how much working paper growth and submissions have changed with the growth of AI. paulgp.substack.com/p/the-number...
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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 28/05/2026
Francesco Filippucci, Peter Gal, Katharina Laengle, Matthias Schief, & Muhammed A. Yıldırım show that AI-driven productivity gains will vary widely across countries. Maintaining competitiveness will ultimately require strong domestic #AI adoption. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky
Figure shows the predicted per capita real-income gains from AI over the next ten years. AI’s macroeconomic gains are expected to vary widely across countries.

Productivity gains from AI are expected to be significant, but how international trade shapes the cross-country distribution of these gains remains an open question. This column combines evidence on task-level productivity gains, sectoral AI exposure, and projected AI adoption with a global multi-country, multi-sector trade model to show that AI-driven productivity gains will vary widely across countries. A key insight is that while countries lagging in AI adoption can gain from cheaper imports of goods and services whose production benefits from AI, maintaining competitiveness in global markets ultimately requires strong domestic AI adoption.
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Alex Coad @coad.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
Weird: as a journal editor, I received a submission that cites a fake (but plausible-sounding) paper that I supposedly wrote in 2018! #AIslop #AIhallucination #EconSky
Fake reference, presumably from an AI hallucination
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Jamin Speer @jaminspeer.bsky.social · 23/05/2026
Hull City scored a stoppage time goal to achieve promotion to the Premier League today. According to my research, that goal was worth $238-280 million over the next 7 years. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
sciencedirect.com
The consequences of promotion and relegation in European soccer leagues: A regression discontinuity approach
European soccer leagues operate on a ”promotion and relegation” system, in which poor-performing teams are moved to a lower division of play, and high…
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 20/05/2026
paulgp.substack.com/p/ai-and-the...
paulgp.substack.com
AI and the Research O-Ring
Beware Nihilism
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 20/05/2026
New blog post! Let's say an effect you are interested in varies between countries and you want to explain some of that cross-cultural variation. What could possibly go wrong? www.the100.ci/2026/05/20/f...
the100.ci
Friends don’t let friends run moderated cross-country regressions
Header image: Moderate cross-country slopes (Photo: By Erik W. Kolstad - Flickr, CC BY 2.0,) Here’s a particular genre of article that relies on multiple data collection sites, such as studies anal...
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Emily Beam @ebeam.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
Really enjoyed contributing to this write-up on @causalinf.bsky.social Substack — an NBER panel on AI in research production w/ Kosali Simon, David Bradford, Coady Wing + commentary from me, Jason Fletcher & @paulgp.com open.substack.com/pub/causalin...
open.substack.com
What a panel of economists said about AI in the production of research
This is from a moderated discussion at the NBER Applications of AI in Healthcare meeting that happened in Cambridge, Massachusetts May 8th, 2026.
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Ralf Reski @reskilab.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
The scale of the fraud is shocking and dangerous. Fabricated citations: an audit across 2·5 million biomedical papers When references point to non-existent studies, readers, reviewers, and policy makers are unable to evaluate the evidence. www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
thelancet.com
Fabricated citations: an audit across 2·5 million biomedical papers
Scientific literature depends on the integrity of its references. Each reference implicitly asserts that a verifiable source exists and supports the claims being made. When references point to non-exi...
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Simon Reif @simonreif.social · 19/05/2026
#JobAdd We at @zew.de in Mannheim (GER) are looking for #PostDoc in applied economist with a strong research profile in empirical #HealthEconomics who will contribute to our research agenda on the digital transformation of health care 🤓+++ we have a rooftop terrace! jobs.zew.de/jobposting/e...
Photo of a rooftop terrace
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Martin Gaynor @martingaynor.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Important new paper by Robert Metcalfe, Alexandre Sollaci & Chad Syverson. They show that proposed mergers that lead to greater market power will have smaller efficiencies & vice versa. This has important implications for enforcement agencies & courts in assessing mergers. www.nber.org/papers/w35221
nber.org
Proposed Mergers Where Efficiencies Are Needed Most Might Be the Least Likely to Deliver Them
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 16/05/2026
Today I learned about yet another number that is essentially made up 🥲 pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/12376390/
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
"Drink at least eight glasses of water a day." Really? Is there scientific evidence for "8 x 8"? - PubMed
Despite the seemingly ubiquitous admonition to "drink at least eight 8-oz glasses of water a day" (with an accompanying reminder that beverages containing caffeine and alcohol do not count), rigorous ...
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 16/05/2026
Apropos of some debate on Piketty-Saez-Zucman versus Auten-Splinter brewing again on the other site, let me post my lecture notes that does a deep dive into this, looking at both pre- and post-tax income inequality. Link: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/4k5gj...
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