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Arin Dube

@arindube.bsky.social
16K followers 723 following 9.9K posts

Provost Prof. of Economics (UMass Amherst). Inequality, labor market policies and competition. Affiliations: NBER, IZA, MIT Shaping the Future of Work Initiative Preorder my book, The Wage Standard: www.thewagestandard.com

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Reposted by Arin Dube
INEQ - Research Institute Economics of Inequality @ WU Vienna @ineq-wu.bsky.social · 17h
🎓 INEQ Research Seminar is back for the winter term! We kick things off on 12 Oct. with a book presentation by Martin Schürz (in German). The following week, we welcome @arindube.bsky.social – a connection that started on Bluesky! 👋 🔗 Schedule & details: short.wu.ac.at/en_ineq_rs #INEQ #INEQ_RS
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
It's a fatal conceit to think we can tell a moral and ethical story to bring Americans together today without addressing the economic reality that has failed them too often over the past 50 years. That's the story I tell in The Wage Standard: and what we can do to change it. thewagestandard.com
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Check out my new post! How prices at the pump relate to which party controls the senate. arindube.substack.com/p/petrol-pri...
arindube.substack.com
Petrol Price Pass-through to Politics
The Rapidly Rising Chances of Democratic Control of Senate has a Surprisingly Simple Explanation
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
This paper by @davidautor.bsky.social & co-authors is one of the most important papers to date in the space of what AI does to learning. It's highly credible. And very much consistent with my own experience with use of agentic AI in research and teaching. www.nber.org/papers/w35720
nber.org
Does AI Assistance Enhance or Erode Expertise? Evidence from a Three-Month Field Experiment in Patent Drafting
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
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Economics for Inclusive Prosperity @econfip.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
From EFIP member Arin Dube: "...the politics of capital income and wealth taxation is about to change."
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Prediction: the politics of capital income and wealth taxation is about to change. Concentrated wealth as an abstract concept doesn't animate voters as much as when that wealth is tied to a technology that voters are very concerned about.
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
I am looking forward to giving talks on The Wage Standard in Europe - in Wien, Oxford, London (Resolution Foundation), and Torino (Intl. festival of economics). October will be a busy month! Also exciting is that these talks will include some new findings. Coming soon! 1/
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
A tale of two inequalities. Wage inequality stopped growing circa 2015 and fell especially in post-pandemic period. In contrast, capital income inequality (and wealth inequality) has risen driven by fall in labor share. Inequality has moved from labor to capital income.
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Adjusted for composition (demog. reweighing), this is what happened to real wages at the bottom (p10), middle (p50), and top (p90) using CPS data. Going up to p99 (using Soc. Security data) doesn't change this picture. Through 2025, at least bottom-half wage inequality compressed & remained so.
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
We will post a paper in the next month that will really change your priors on what you can do with public data. Stay tuned!
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Adjusted for composition (demog. reweighing), this is what happened to real wages at the bottom (p10), middle (p50), and top (p90) using CPS data. Going up to p99 (using Soc. Security data) doesn't change this picture. Through 2025, at least bottom-half wage inequality compressed & remained so.
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Most US voters would be alarmed if they learned that leading Silicon Valley AI figures: 1) think AGI (artificial general intelligence, the idea that AI that can do any cognitive task a human can, making it a substitute for humans) is coming in the next few years and this is a very good thing, 1/
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
I don't usually post music videos but ... I just discovered this Olivia Rodrigo cover of Stick Season recently and just honestly love it so much. (We went to see Noah Kahan last month, and will go see OR in October, so this is very popular in the family.) www.youtube.com/watch?app=de...
youtube.com
Olivia Rodrigo - Stick Season (Noah Kahan cover) in the Live Lounge
YouTube video by BBCRadio1VEVO
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
The hit piece on Acemoglu in The Economist will largely serve, against the seeming intent of the piece, to a downward updating of priors on the magazine, and the named sources it cites.
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Very proud of this piece (forthcoming in JEL). It took years to write and edit. But happy of the final outcome, and even happier to see how the literature grew even as we were reviewing it!
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
One of the best things progressive Dems can do in swing states is to point out that they are particularly well-poised to deliver what Donald Trump once promised: to stop endless wars.
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Not posting too much these days, but want to let you know that I'm excited about a research product we'll release soon - how to use publicly available data to learn about things we thought was only possible using restricted use data. Stay tuned!
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Stephen Nuñez @socio-steve.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Reminder that this is today at 3pm eastern. Come listen to the discussion about @arindube.bsky.social 's new book, The Wage Standard.
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
A reminder that, norms withstanding, here in America the boss can fire you for a good reason, a bad reason, or no reason at all. Unless you have a union contract with protections. Lucky to be a member of the MTA, who can defend me if I ever were in a similar position. Wish more had the same.
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Sanjay is a friend, coauthor. He was the only Econ faculty member laid off, in a largely heterodox dept, after years of publicly criticizing the administration's finances. A bad look for the New School. Tenure exists precisely to allow this kind of criticism. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/05/n...
nytimes.com
He Had Tenure. The New School Laid Him Off Anyway. (Gift Article)
The professor, a longtime critic of the university, was among 19 educators who lost their positions as the institution navigated financial woes.
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Roosevelt Institute @rooseveltinstitute.org · 05/08/2026
For decades, productivity has risen while wage growth for most workers has lagged behind. Join us tomorrow at 3 PM ET for a conversation with @arindube.bsky.social on The Wage Standard, his new book on how we got here and how we can reset the labor market in workers' favor. ⬇️ Register below!
rooseveltinstitute.org
Roosevelt Institute Book Club presents: The Wage Standard by Arindrajit Dube
Join us on August 6th in conversation with Arindrajit Dube to learn how corporations have set this “wage standard” and what it will take to reset the labor market toward a new, worker-focused one.
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
There's no bad weather, just bad gear" Getting ready for our trip to Iceland next week, for the solar eclipse!
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Ben Zipperer @benzipperer.org · 05/08/2026
Very useful suggestions for economists verifying that AI-generated code correctly implements the design, so we can focus on the harder, less-automatable question: does the design actually identify the effect being claimed?
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Stephen Nuñez @socio-steve.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Roosevelt Book Club! This Thursday my colleague Patrick Oakford interviews economist @arindube.bsky.social about his new book, "The Wage Standard." If you have any interest in labor markets and labor economics, you can't miss this. events.zoom.us/ev/ArtZWofWx...
events.zoom.us
RI Book Club: The Wage Standard
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Maybe not a popular post for here, but this is my assessment. In economics research, there are some easy ways to get a decent amount of verification of accuracy for AI generated code or algebra. 1/
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Aine Yore, MD 🏳️‍⚧️🇮🇪 @aineyoremd.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
This is dense and pretty cool and I particularly like it because it confirms my priors that paying people a living wage is good public policy.
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Andrew Watt @andrewwatteu.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
The evidence from the US, where over more than a decade some states have raised the minimum wage while others have not, is clear. - Statutory MW hikes are effective in raising the wages of the low paid. - No substantial job losses. - Adjustment via higher productivity, prices &/or lower profits
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Last night in Costa Brava. I'll miss this view...
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Center for Economic and Policy Research @ceprdc.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
ICYMI: More money means less problems for Americans. @arindube.bsky.social sits down with @deanbaker13.bsky.social to break down why we should increase the minimum wage, worker mobility, and aim for full employment. Watch:
youtube.com
Mostly Economics Podcast 38: More Money, Less Problems with Arindrajit Dube
Economist Arindrajit Dube joins Dean Baker to discuss his book The ...
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Trump Carbon Tax
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reneelbowser.bsky.social @reneelbowser.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Listen to WPFW's (app, website, 89.3 FM) "Unionism Drives Community!" Thurs., July 23 @ 5 pm when renowned Univ. of Mass. Amherst Econ. Prof. @arindube.bsky.social discusses why America's cost of living crisis is really a pay crisis and a higher minimum wage is critical to solving it.
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
One of the best things about Spain’s World Cup win: unlike so many elite teams, it isn’t built around a single superstar. It’s just a great team.
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
I misplaced my laptop and won't get it back till tomorrow - just watching TV on a Sunday evening. Just imagine! Feels good 😊
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
I felt a great disturbance in the Force, as if billions of voices suddenly cried out in joy...
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
What a f'ing bonus
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
¡Vamos, España! ¡Qué partido! ¡Estaremos allí esta semana para celebrar!
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
God damn it finally! Yes! Lets go!!!
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
When you think about it, it's a remarkable fact that we had a period in human history when many leading voices thought the route to broad based prosperity was through teaching a large share of humanity how to write software code that provides instructions to a computer.
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
When you think about it, it's a remarkable fact that we had a period in human history when many leading voices thought the route to broad based prosperity was through teaching a large share of humanity how to write software code that provides instructions to a computer.
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Spain versus Argentina it is! Reigning European champion against the reigning world champion. Let's go!
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
This Argentina team is relentless!
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
That was a brilliant goal!
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Excited to visit Spain next week (purely for family vacation, no work) after ... checks notes ... several decades! We will be at Barcelona and Costa Brava. But also excited that next May I'll give talks at UC3M (Madrid) and UPF (Barcelona) so España is LOCKED IN!
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
The reigning European champions played like it today. ¡Felicidades a España!
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
I think I'll have a better time during my family vacation to Spain next week if Spain wins today. So I should probably support Spain.
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
In this new piece with Suresh Naidu (part of the Game Changers volume), I lay out a vision for how to use sectoral standards in America - to set wages but much more, including regulating technology like AI. Check it out! peri.umass.edu/publication/...
peri.umass.edu
Raising Middle-Class Pay and Working Conditions through Sectoral Standards
The Problem Most American workers do not have a say in the governance of their workplaces, and too often are paid wages that have not tracked economy-wide productivity. We need institutions that give…
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Fine with economists signing this letter, but I personally wouldn't have signed it asked. Because it's very vague and I don't know what the concrete proposal is (besides that we should learn more, which goes without saying.) 1/
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
For what it's worth, I'll be near the France/Spain border later this month. I suppose it would have been ideal to have been there tomorrow instead, to get a full border discontinuity experience.
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Abdul El-Sayed primary win probability rose dramatically since April in betting markets. During that period, there was very modest change in Dem win probability in the general election. According to markets, AES is has similar chance of beating GOP as likely alternative - around 75% probability.
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
The impact of AI on jobs is uncertain. What is certain: assessment of job-creation/destruction by tech company CEOs should be heavily discounted, or ignored altogether. Tech CEOs have no insights in labor economics, and have bad incentives on this issue.
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