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Peter Pfleiderer

@klimapeter.bsky.social
617 followers 177 following 90 posts

Climate researcher at Leipzig University - Climate Causality & Attribution group (lim-climate-causality.github.io) interested in atmospheric circulation and weather extremes | cloud lover

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Reposted by Peter Pfleiderer
Francois Jobard @francoisjobard.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Cette semaine on devrait toucher le fond niveau #sécheresse. Un tout début d'amélioration pluvieuse reste envisageable la semaine prochaine. Derrière cette "situation record" (Météo-France) : une mortalité des arbres sans exemple ! Dans le bois de Vincennes l'agonie des hêtres devient générale. 🥲
Évolution de l'indicateur national de sécheresse des sols en France. Graphe Meteo-France
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Peter Pfleiderer @klimapeter.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Is that what they are saying? They adjusted their emission scenarios until 2050 and make a statement for the global warming based on that, but I think that they expect 2.5-3°C for 2100
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Reposted by Peter Pfleiderer
arno @helloarno.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
vs.
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Peter Pfleiderer @klimapeter.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Wir haben uns angeschaut, was sich in extremen Sommern über die allgemeine Erwärmung hinaus verändert: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Heat Extremes Within Hot Summer Seasons Intensify More Than in Average Summers Under Global Warming
Rare heat summers today (with ≈ 100-year return period) show a different evolution of sub-seasonal temperatures than similarly rare summers in pre-industrial climate. Faster drying of soils in cu...
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Peter Pfleiderer @klimapeter.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Die gefärbten Bereiche zeigen, was für den Klimazustand eines jeweiligen Jahres ein Jahrhundertstommer (rot) oder Jahrzehntsommer (gelb) wäre. Das bezieht sich auf die dazugehörige globale Mitteltemperatur. In einem vorindustriellen Klima wären viele der heutigen Sommer Jahrhundertsommer.
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Peter Pfleiderer @klimapeter.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
In Paris oder Wien war dieser Sommer wirklich extrem 🥵
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Peter Pfleiderer @klimapeter.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Die Daten sind von ERA5 und es fehlen noch ein paar letzte Augusttage. cds.climate.copernicus.eu/datasets/der...
cds.climate.copernicus.eu
ERA5 post-processed daily statistics on single levels from 1940 to present
ERA5 is the fifth generation ECMWF reanalysis for the global climate and weather for the past 8 decades. Data is available from 1940 onwards. ERA5 replaces the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Reanalysis combines model data with observations from across the world into a globally complete and consistent dataset using the laws of physics. This principle, called data assimilation, is based on the method used by numerical weather prediction centres, where every so many hours (12 hours at ECMWF) a previous forecast is combined with newly available observations in an optimal way to produce a new best estimate of the state of the atmosphere, called analysis, from which an updated, improved forecast is issued. Reanalysis works in the same way, but at reduced resolution to allow for the provision of a dataset spanning back several decades. Reanalysis does not have the constraint of issuing timely forecasts, so there is more time to collect observations, and when going further back in time, to allow for the ingestion of improved versions of the original observations, which all benefit the quality of the reanalysis product. This catalogue entry provides post-processed ERA5 hourly single-level data aggregated to daily time steps. In addition to the data selection options found on the hourly page, the following options can be selected for the daily statistic calculation: The daily aggregation statistic (daily mean, daily max, daily min, daily sum*) The sub-daily frequency sampling of the original data (1 hour, 3 hours, 6 hours) The option to shift to any local time zone in UTC (no shift means the statistic is computed from UTC+00:00) *The daily sum is only available for the accumulated variables (see ERA5 documentation for more details). Users should be aware that the daily aggregation is calculated during the retrieval process and is not part of a permanently archived dataset. For more details on how the daily statistics are calculated, including demonstrative code, please see the documentation. For more details on the hourly data used to calculate the daily statistics, please refer to the ERA5 hourly single-level data catalogue entry and the documentation found therein.
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Peter Pfleiderer @klimapeter.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Der Sommer ist vorbei und wird uns in Erinnerung bleiben! In Leipzig gab es die krasse Hitzewelle Ende Juni. Der Sommer entspricht aber ungefähr dem, was wir beim jetzigen Fortschritt der globalen Erwärmung von einem Sommer erwarten sollten 😬 Deutlich schlimmere Sommer wären möglich 🫣
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KarSteN Haustein @khaustein.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Globally, the hottest August in observed history is just about to end. In Western Europe, the summer of 2026 (June, July, August) has been the warmest as well. Compared to this year, 1976 (the famous UK summer) and 2003 (the hottest EU summer so far) look like amateurs in terms of heat (1/2)
Global map of temperature departures with most continental regions as well as the tropical Pacific in red (hot). Parts of Antarctica in blue (cold)

Source: http://www.karstenhaustein.com/climateMap of Europe with blue and cold patches for cold and hot temperature departures from the long-term climate average (1961-1990). France and the UK in red. All else rather blue.Map of Europe with blue and cold patches for cold and hot temperature departures from the long-term climate average (1961-1990). All of central Europe in red. Parts of the Atlantic in blueMap of Europe with blue and cold patches for cold and hot temperature departures from the long-term climate average (1961-1990). All of central and Southern Europe in red. No blue left anymore.
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Gernot Wagner @gwagner.com · 20/08/2026
Let's see whether this survives the editing process gwagner.com/delay
Author declaration: "The authors declare no competing interests, other than wanting a livable planet for their children and grandchildren."
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Greenpeace Luxembourg @greenpeacelux.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Big Oil is literally burning the planet for profit. We are not mad enough. Governments must finally make big polluters pay for the damage they are causing. #MakePollutersPay
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Peter Pfleiderer @klimapeter.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Hier ist die Studie: doi.org/10.1029/2026...
doi.org
Heat Extremes Within Hot Summer Seasons Intensify More Than in Average Summers Under Global Warming
Rare heat summers today (with ≈ 100-year return period) show a different evolution of sub-seasonal temperatures than similarly rare summers in pre-industrial climate. Faster drying of soils in cu...
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Peter Pfleiderer @klimapeter.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Kleiner Bericht über unsere Studie. Ich weiß nicht ganz, was mit der Überschrift gemeint ist, oder wie sie zu verstehen ist. Immerhin waren es ja "Forschende", die diesen Denkanstoß gegeben haben ... 🤔 www.tagesschau.de/wissen/klima...
tagesschau.de
Jahrhundertsommer? Warum Forschende neu denken müssen
Ein überaus heißer und trockener Sommer wie in diesem Jahr kann künftig normal sein. Das zumindest sagt die Klimaforschung. Die Frage ist nur: Wie sieht dann künftig ein Jahrhundertsommer aus? Von Flo...
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Leipzig Institute for Meteorology @meteoleipzig.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
New paper out by @klimapeter.bsky.social et al: Hot days become more clustered together, leading to longer periods and more intensified periods of extreme heat. In other words, hot summers become even hotter than 'average' summers (which get warmer as well). Very timely after this crazy summer 🔥
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Peter Pfleiderer @klimapeter.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
-> This summer was/is already very very bad 🥵 In current climate considerably more severe summers would be possible 🙀 lets prepare! But more importantly, we need to get emissions to ZERO as there are limits to adaptation!
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Peter Pfleiderer @klimapeter.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Despite all the differences in heat characteristics in 100-year summers we do not find a statistically significant change in the the temperature anomaly of 100-year summers: A 100-year summer in pre-industrial climate was 2.2C warmer than an average summer and this is the same in current climate.
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Peter Pfleiderer @klimapeter.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Doing so, we concentrate computation time on hot simulations 🖥️ Since the perturbations are very small, the simulated summers are fully compatible with the climate models physics. Knowing the systematic selection criteria one can later on estimate the likelihood of each simulation.
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Peter Pfleiderer @klimapeter.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
In rare-event sampling, many simulations are started in early summer. Every 5 days the temperature over our region of interest is monitored and in a systematic selection “cool” simulations are stopped while “warm” simulations are continued multiple times with negligible perturbations.
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Peter Pfleiderer @klimapeter.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
To make statistical statements about differences in the characteristics of 100-year summers in current and pre-industrial summers we complemented the CESM2 large ensemble (LENS2) with rare-event sampling simulations maximizing summer mean temperatures from CESM2. www.cesm.ucar.edu/community-pr...
cesm.ucar.edu
CESM2 Large Ensemble Community Project (LENS2) | Community Earth System Model
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Peter Pfleiderer @klimapeter.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
🌂 Drier soils contribute to increasing summer heat 🌡️ Today, summers begin with less soil moisture, reducing evaporative cooling on sunny days. This creates a longer late-summer window when dry soils and favorable weather in combination can produce extreme heat.
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Peter Pfleiderer @klimapeter.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Our analysis separates three drivers of summer heat: mean warming, a widening of the daily temperature distribution, and a stronger seasonal cycle. The wider distribution is partly linked to an intensified seasonal cycle, which is especially pronounced in 100-year summers.
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Peter Pfleiderer @klimapeter.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
The largest differences are found for long lasting hot periods. Late summer has warmed most, greatly increasing the number of very hot days. At the same time, hot days are becoming more clustered together, leading to longer periods of extreme heat.
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Peter Pfleiderer @klimapeter.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
The later part of the summer has warmed more than early summer -> it’s the already hot part of the summer that has warmed most! This increases the intensity of heat extremes and this intensification is even stronger in centennial summers (expected once every 100 years).
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Peter Pfleiderer @klimapeter.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
What is changing with extreme European summers? 🥵 We look at many simulated 100-year summers in western Europe to find out how current day extreme summers differ from similarly rare pre-industrial summers. @robinnoyelle.bsky.social and @sebastian-sippel.bsky.social doi.org/10.1029/2026...
doi.org
Heat Extremes Within Hot Summer Seasons Intensify More Than in Average Summers Under Global Warming
Rare heat summers today (with ≈ 100-year return period) show a different evolution of sub-seasonal temperatures than similarly rare summers in pre-industrial climate. Faster drying of soils in cu...
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Reposted by Peter Pfleiderer
World Meteorological Organization @wmo-global.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
This is the landscape unfolding across Western Europe during this very hot & dry summer. In contrast, much of eastern Europe & Scandinavia felt lower than ave. temperatures. More about the extreme weather affecting Europe & other parts of the world: bit.ly/4xzcZfg
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Adrian Leyser Sturm @leysersturm.eurosky.social · 06/08/2026
Next week will bring the 5th #heatwave to W/C Europe. It is expected to push Germany’s running average temperature for the summer above 20°C, a threshold that, at this point, had previously been reached only in 2003. Whether this will ultimately result in a new record, however, remains to be seen.
Average temperatures in Germany during 2026 summer season and average temperatures for summers since 1880.
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Madeleine Cuff @tinymaddie.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Truly startling - across swathes of England and Wales, dozens weather stations recorded ZERO rainfall in July, for the first time in their history www.newscientist.com/article/2583...
newscientist.com
Parts of the UK endure first ever month without any rain | New Scientist
For the first time since records began, there was no rain at all for parts of southern England and Wales in July, in a “truly exceptional” month of heat and sunshine
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KarSteN Haustein @khaustein.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
In case anyone is still listening: 14.500 excess deaths have been recorded during the June heatwave in Germany alone. At least 70% (i.e. ~10.000 premature deaths) r due to man-made climate change in 1 week. The conservative RKI numbers r certainly a massive underestimate! www.rki.de/DE/Themen/Ge...
blue line showing normal mortality. red line showing excess mortality which skyrockets end of june 2026 due to extreme heat
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Leipzig Institute for Meteorology @meteoleipzig.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
New paper alert ‼️ Changes in atmospheric circulation patterns are - to a large part - responsible for the observed summer drought trend in Europe since 1980. The exact cause for these shifts remains uncertain. www.nature.com/articles/s41... Uni press release: www.uni-leipzig.de/en/newsdetai...
three panels with yellow and blue colours for soil moisture trends. mostly yellow for the total change in the top panel. light yellow changes in the bottom left panel for thermodynamics. some blue in the north and south but yellow in western and central parts in the bottom right panel for dynamics.
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Ana Bastos @anabastos.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Drought has increased in Europe since 1980s: climate change or natural climate variability? 🌍🌡️🌬️ István Dunkl shows that hifts in large-scale atmospheric circulation explain ca. 55% of the soil moisture decline and amplify drying induced by thermodynamic changes 👇 w/ @sebastian-sippel.bsky.social
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Nahel Belgherze @wxnb.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
I've never seen anything like it. Salta, Argentina, has just recorded its hottest night on record during the climatologically coldest time of the year. The minimum overnight temperature did not fall below 26°C (78.8°F), pulverizing the previous monthly record by 7°C.
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Dr. Serge Zaka @sergezaka.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
➡️ INTENSITÉ : C'est désormais acquis. La vague de chaleur de juin 2026 dépasse la canicule de 2003, jusqu'ici référence absolue, en termes de pic d'intensité. ➡️ DURÉE : Au 30 juin, nous en sommes déjà au 14ᵉ jour de canicule, se rapprochant des 16 jours de 2003. 1/8
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Melaine Le Roy @subfossilguy.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
The 2003 heatwave (record in terms of intensity in F), was shattered by the June heatwave, occurring 1.5 month earlier! 🔥 Wait... temp. will not even drop below thresholds marking the end of a heatwave before the arrival of a new one expected as early as this weekend! ☠️ Via @sergezaka.bsky.social
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KarSteN Haustein @khaustein.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
Who knew that climate change and massive asphalt highways in the middle of a large city might not be the ideal combination. But what do I know? Also, who sold them this cheap material? Clearly, more heat resistent materials exist. #ClimateEmergency #Glutofen
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Charlotte Garden @charlottegarden.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
Irony is dead.
Extreme Heat: Improving governance and strengthening action around the world - cancelled
Date: 24 June 2026, 9:30 am - 12:00 pm Venue: LSE Shaw Library, Houghton St, Old Building, London, WC2A 2AE
We regret that this event has been cancelled due to the red extreme heat warning issued by the UK Met Office.
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KarSteN Haustein @khaustein.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
It shapes up to be a dangerously brutal and - likely - historic heatwave in Central Europe, especially France and its capital. #ClimateEmergency www.karstenhaustein.com/climate
Map of Europe with red and blue colors for anomalously hot and cool regiona. France and Germany deep red. Some light blue over European Russia.
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Natascha Strobl @nataschastrobl.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Das ist übrigens eine Vermögens- und Erbschaftssteuer. Halt für Alle, die pflegebedürftig werden und deren Erben. Also Leute, die schlechter wohnen, weniger verdienen und härter arbeiten. Eigentum wird nur für Reiche geschützt.
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Laura Suarez-Gutierrez @drlaurasuarez.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
The most extreme heatwaves physically possible already today could dwarf all events in recent memory. And even more worrying, they occur successively after one or more extreme heatwaves in the same summer. 🔥 Paper: www.nature.com/articles/s43... @erichfischer.bsky.social @commsearth.nature.com
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Neil Grant @neilgrant.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
Chart of the day. The energy transition is happening in real time! 😍
Two area charts showing that in Australia's National Electricity Market, battery discharge replaced peaking gas at the evening demand peak between April 2025 and April 2026.
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Leipzig Institute for Meteorology @meteoleipzig.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
Check out all the events in Leipzig during this weeks "Aktionswoche gegen Rechts" Initiated and organized by wissenschaft-gegen-faschismus.de/index.php/ve... There is also an online program provided by various Universities and institutions across Germany
Pink leaflet with Program notes for every day from Tuesday to Friday this week. Put 'Leipzig' in the search bar to find out more: https://wissenschaft-gegen-faschismus.de/index.php/veranstaltungen/
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Leipzig Institute for Meteorology @meteoleipzig.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
Our institute will contribute with talks, a panel and a get-together on Thursday. Be part of the action! 🫵
red and white text which says 'Science against fascism' with an Actiion day on Thursday 4 June, starting at 3pm in Beckmann Lecture hall in Brüderstrasse 34red and white text which says 'Science against fascism' with the concrete program, starting with a welcome at 3pm and three talks, followed by a panel at 4:45pm.
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Auke Hoekstra @aukehoekstra.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Interesting new paper documents clearly how the IAEA has been overestimating the growth of nuclear time and time again. It's the inverse of what I've documented for solar and batteries. doi.org/10.1016/j.er...
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International Glaciological Society @igsoc.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Lilian Schuster @lilianschuster.bsky.social wins the Early Career Scientist Award given in recognition of significant scientific and/or community contributions to glaciology by an early career scientist. Full citation: www.igsoc.org/about/awards...
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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 02/05/2026
Yes, if AMOC shuts down, it may release hundreds of billions of tonnes of CO₂. You know what's guaranteed to release hundreds of billions of tonnes of CO₂ in the next few years? Our continued use of fossil fuels.
newscientist.com
Collapse of key ocean current may release billions of tonnes of carbon
If the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation shut down, the knock-on effects could release hundreds of billions of tonnes of CO2, raising global temperatures even further
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Dr. Aaron Thierry @thierryaaron.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
"Our results show that non-survivable conditions are occurring during present-day heat events, all of which are below 35oC wet-bulb temperature. Of concern is regular exceedances of deadly thresholds for older people directly exposed across all events. " #ClimateEmergency
nature.com
Deadly heat stress conditions are already occurring - Nature Communications
The authors use a physiological approach, finding recent extreme heat events had deadly heat stress conditions, particularly for fully exposed older people. Conditions were well below wet-bulb tempera...
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Emily Theokritoff @etheokritoff.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
The climate #litigation pico session and splinter meeting are back at #EGU26! ⚖️ We’re looking forward to another round of enriching, highly interdisciplinary talks and discussions. Based on this year’s impressive line-up of abstracts and speakers, it’s set to be a great one.
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Carbon Brief @carbonbrief.org · 21/04/2026
Clean energy pushes fossil-fuel power into reverse for ‘first time ever’ | @mollylempriere.carbonbrief.org @ember-energy.org Read here: buff.ly/XtaYP1D
Renewables have passed coal power globally,. Global electricity generation n TWh, 2000-2025.
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 14/04/2026
Revisiting the near-term projection from IPCC AR5 climatelabbook.substack.com/p/revisiting...
climatelabbook.substack.com
Revisiting the near-term projection from IPCC AR5
A more technical diversion back to 2013
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taz @taz.de · 08/04/2026
Das Massensterben von Migranten auf See ging auch diese Woche weiter. Doch für unsere Mitmenschen dort gibt es keinen Liveticker und kein Mitleid.
Geflüchtete warten im Ärmelkanal auf ein Boot. Dazu der Text: Den Weg zurück ins offene Meer fand er nicht, den Weg in die Herzen der Deutschen schon. Eine Nation litt mit „Timmy“, dem Wal. Zur gleichen Zeit trieben etwa 80 Menschen zwischen Libyen und der italienischen Insel Lampedusa im Mittelmeer. Doch erst mehr als 24 Stunden später, am Dienstag, kam die italienische Küstenwache den Menschen zur Hilfe. Da waren 19 der Insassen tot, offenbar erfroren, fünf waren in kritischem Zustand.Einen Tag später, am Mittwoch, starben 20 Migrant:innen bei einem Bootsunglück vor der Küste von Bodrum in der Türkei. Am Sonntag waren mindestens 40 Menschen elf Meilen vor der Küste von Sfax in Tunesien ertrunken.Schlagzeilen macht das alles nicht mehr. Mindestens 910 Tote Flüchtlinge und Migrant:innen gab es bisher in diesem Jahr im Mittelmeer, dazu mindestens 120 auf dem Weg von Westafrika zu den Kanaren und mindestens vier im Ärmelkanal. Im Januar waren es 459 Tote, so viele wie noch nie in einem Januar, seit 2014 begonnen wurde, offiziell zu zählen.
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Paul Ganderton @ecogeog.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
Beavers can help mitigate the effects of #climatechange by creating carbon sinks! www.nature.com/articles/s43...
nature.com
Beavers can convert stream corridors to persistent carbon sinks - Communications Earth & Environment
Beaver-induced hydrological change turned wetland into a net carbon sink with an approximate carbon storage of 100 tons per year, according to a comprehensive carbon budget analysis from a beaver wetl...
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