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Joshua G. Schraiber

@jgschraiber.bsky.social
3K followers 2.7K following 7.1K posts

Evolutionary biologist, computational biologist, statistician. I like to develop mathematical models of evolutionary process and see how they fit to data. I also like cities where building apartments is legal and greatly dislike fascism

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Reposted by Joshua G. Schraiber
Dave Levitan @davelevitan.bsky.social · 8m
I know this isn’t useful but it’s weird how “the president should be coherent” was a Very Important Thing just a few years ago and then suddenly wasn’t.
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Sam @samd.bsky.social · 42m
Left-NIMBY vacancy trutherism is so funny because their argument implicitly accepts the logic that greater supply of housing lowers prices but then completely refuses to take it to its logical endpoint that we should build more housing.
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Matt Hodges @matthodges.bsky.social · 6h
There's growing experimental evidence¹˒²˒³˒⁴ that LLMs are unusually good at talking people out of entrenched false beliefs and conspiracy theories. ¹ pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/39264999/ ² pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41179846/ ³ sciety.org/articles/act... ⁴ connecticut.adl.org/resources/re...
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Dr. Samantha Hancox-Li @sjshancoxli.liberalcurrents.com · 3h
i once saw [eminent labor historian] say "look you idiots, labor unions exist to advocate for their own members." but like. if that's true. do you actually think the implication is *good* for solidarity?
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Joshua G. Schraiber @jgschraiber.bsky.social · 1h
It's gonna be weird when basically all random graphic design for random products is AI. It's already just slop anyway but it just required a human to make it. Slightly weirder is when almost all design for most products is AI. The pattern on your sheets, the design on your mug, etc.
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Professa Murray @kalimurray.bsky.social · 3h
We literally fought a whole danged American Revolution for one basic principle: how we spend the government’s money is the province of the most democratic body in our government: Congress.
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Professa Murray @kalimurray.bsky.social · 3h
What everyone has to prepare for is the constitutional crisis to accelerate if the Democrats take the House and the Senate. Vought has been allowed by the Republicans to act with impunity, so have he will continue to ignore Congress. This is why you have to impeach him immediately.
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Tomato Szn @bskylife.bsky.social · 5h
A “pro-labor” Republican is an oxymoron.
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Sam @samd.bsky.social · 5h
what the fuck is wrong with the teamsters man Roger Marshall is a ghoul who sued his own patients and threw them in prison!
Kansas Teamsters Back Pro-Labor Candidate for U.S. Senate
Press Contact: Kara Deniz Phone: (202) 497-6610 (Topeka, Kan.) - Today, Teamsters Local 696 endorsed Senator Roger Marshall (R-KS) for re-election to the U.S. Senate.
"Sen. Marshall has proven time and time again that he is a friend of labor," said Teamsters General President Sean M.
O'Brien. "As a member of the U.S. Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions, Sen. Marshall has been eager to partner with us on legislation that protects workers, even when it requires breaking rank with his own party. We look forward to continuing to work together with Sen. Marshall to fight for the rights of hardworking Americans."
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Jonathan Ladd @jonathanmladd.com · 4h
The current court majority isn’t remotely originalist. The only one of their major conservative decisions on the last several years that is even arguably originalist is Dobbs. The immunity case, the Muslim ban case, all the cases striking down the Voting Rights Act? Not a bit.
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Jonathan Ladd @jonathanmladd.com · 10h
Reminiscent of 1972, when the Nixon administration sent out higher Social Security payments the month before the election, with the taxes to pay for it delayed until the following year. A policy that contributed to the accelerating inflation of the mid- and late-1970s.
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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 5h
I don't really know what to do with these pieces, because: 1. They refuse to used "illegal" & "unconstitutional" & "corruption" in the heds, deks, ledes, or body text 2. They disappear from the front page/headlines within 36 hours & never become THE NARRATIVE, contra EMAILS & BIDEN IS OLD, etc.
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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 9h
I 100% guarantee you that The Nates and Ezra Douthglesias and the Deciding To Win folks are going to do 👇, and it is going to be as wildly unserious in the other direction as the post-2024 unseriousness was when Harris lost
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Dennis Lytton @dennislytton.bsky.social · 7h
There's going to be an urge from Millennial & GenX Dems to treat Nov. '26 & '28 like '06 & '08, respectively "Let's not bother to reform any institutions and blow our wad on a policy push" theyll say Except this time we are Weimar '32 & Vance, Eric Schmitt, et al are gleefully opposed to democracy
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Murshed Zaheed @murshedz.bsky.social · 6h
Exactly this. No matter how straight forward Alito’s comments look - it’d be a mistake to dismiss it as a clickbait. Given how these guys have grabbed power without any regard for precedent and rules - Dems should fully expect Rs to ram through a scotus nomination if they lose the senate.
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Alan Richardson @alanrichardson.bsky.social · 9h
SBE was the branch of NSF that provided grants for history and philosophy of science and STS.
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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social · 10h
GOP ads right now are all about attacking trans people. Over, and over, and over. I was a gay teen in 2004 watching the Bush campaign try to win on attacking gay marriage, but the resort to this hate drive in campaign ads feels so dialed up now. I can’t imagine being an lgbt kid watching tv today.
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Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani @mayor.nyc.gov · 10h
NYC is opening 160 car-free (but treat-filled) streets and plazas to enjoy fun and safe fall festivities this spooky season. Find one near you at nyc.gov/trickorstreets.
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Erin J. Wamsley 🧠📈😴 @wamsleylab.bsky.social · 11h
The fiscal year is over. The dying Social, Behavioral, and Economic division of NSF ended up awarding 90 total grants this year, as opposed to ~700-800 in recent past years. Source: grantwitness.org/nsf/analyses...
The graph shows the cumulative number of awards made by month across this fiscal year, as compared to the last 6 fiscal years. The line for this year is total flat until June, but then finally gets up to 91 by October. In prior years the increase starts building earlier and ends on average in the 700-800 range (with variability, last year was only between 400-500).
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Protik Islam-Jakobsson @protik.bsky.social · 10h
my millennial heart will never be ready for Woke Bill Kristol
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Andy Rivkin @asrivkin.bsky.social · 19h
Grant selection rates get much lower, you may see a lot more of this sort of thing.
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Wannabe Apparatchik @apparatchikwannabe.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
if there was a novel or compressed way to store trillions of terabytes of information, this technology would probably be worth more than any of the models themselves, “compressing math as much as physically possible” is a solved problem
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Jason Morín @jasonlmorin.bsky.social · 22h
Job Alert ‼️ The Department of Political Science at CSU, Northridge is seeking a tenure-track faculty member in American politics w/ a primary expertise in American political institutions. Preference will be given to those with a secondary expertise in public policy and racial/ethnic politics.
careers.pageuppeople.com
Career Opportunities
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Wallenstein Appreciator @marbleliberal.bsky.social · 21h
If AI had become left coded originally, the positions in this argument would be flipped. They'd be arguing about how copyright is bourgeois and souls should be deconstructed.
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William B. Fuckley @opinionhaver.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
I don’t know why people won’t just say they believe in some version of the soul, yeah. It’s clearly what they substantively mean!
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Keith @mosheroperandi.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Flatly stating they must've hid a little calculator in the thing to fool everyone was a crazy interaction to witness happen in this week, 2026. I don't think "flat-earth" is hyperbolic. It is on the level of "we can just video call the people in space right now, we don't need to speculate"
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"Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux @bretdevereaux.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
I do wonder how this political moment is going to change North Carolina. The state legislature is gerrymandered to hell (Dems actually led the popular vote in state legislature elections in 2024, but the GOP has nearly veto-proof majorities) but I wonder if we'll see that start to break this year.
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Eric Michael Garcia @ericmgarcia.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Collins is benefiting from the fact she still has plenty of crossover support, a messy contest on the Democratic side, and plenty of name ID. Very possible she still pulls this off
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Guha Krishnamurthi @ggkrishnamoomoo.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
I think he will retire if Dems take the Senate, but the Rs can’t help themselves. They will appoint some unhinged moron And it will only make the case for expansion stronger
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☀️ Starshine @starshine.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
anytime frats come up it’s always a week of nightmare fuel memories plus whatever new nightmare fuel story
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Chris Geidner @chrisgeidner.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Congrats, Don, John, Mike, and John, you broke it.
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Quantian @quantian.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
For what it’s worth, arguing LLMs can’t do addition now is flat earth-level science denialism. Here’s Gemma 4b, a non-reasoning model that could only theoretically memorize binary operations up to 65535 x 65535, oneshotting a eight digit addition and hex conversion *on my phone* with no tool calls
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Karen Attiah @karenattiah.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Today, 8 years ago, my friend, Saudi Journalist and Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi was murdered.
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Pride Ott 🦦 🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ @hikoukihikouki9.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Generally speaking it’s funny that people see Americas diversity as the primary roadblock in Getting To Denmark rather than a cross-factional partisan belief that no one remotely sympathetic should be expected to make any sort of personal sacrifice ever
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William B. Fuckley @opinionhaver.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
The rabbi telling Anthropic that he thinks what they’re doing is fine, because Claude is just a machine to him, but if they’re right (and it is conscious), then they’re world historic monsters, is really interesting.
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Aaron Reichlin-Melnick @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Notice how they also brag about the number of naturalizations having plummeted; a sign of how much they detest legal immigration. /also, the removals number is largely fake. The actual number is 650-700k.
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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 03/10/2026
The Texas Senate is so massively gerrymandered that it doesn’t flip until D+30.
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Nicholas Mancuso @nmancuso.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
When the latest results shared by trainee all line up into a coherent story
static.klipy.com
Antonio Banderas' Satisfied Reaction
ALT: Antonio Banderas' Satisfied Reaction
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Colin @colin-fraser.net · 03/10/2026
I feel like it's kind of underrated funny that Sam Altman has a stack of marvelous proofs on his desk that he's not going to show anyone until we all learn to say thank you
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conputer dipshit @davidcrespo.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
safe bet historically speaking, but the big update from the past 5 years is that the highest human cognitive functions can be done by a big ol pile of floats, so there's always room to be surprised
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Matt Darling @besttrousers.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Work on this is still emerging, but I don't think "pretty clearly" is wrong? papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
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Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Sort of insane fact about how broken US urban planning is—America now spends more building *just the lights for roads and highways* than on all subways & ground mass transit combined Spending on roadway *pavement* is 18x transit spending
a graph of roadway and mass transit lights
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Next door in Silicon Valley @nextdoorsv.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Here are the full poll results. I love how messy populism is! -MAGA and Democratic Party have the same favorability -79% support a credit card interest rate cap of 10% (which could wreck credit card availability) -47% support ending birthright citizenship prod-i.a.dj.com/public/resou...
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Raffi Melkonian @rmfifthcircuit.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Clement has really walked the walk. Flame me all you like.
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❀°。Der Siebenschläfer *.゚✿ ⋆ @sababausa.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Judge Liebowitz (S.D.Fla.) (Biden) held 18 USC § 611 (www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/...) is unconstitutional as applied to this defendant because only the states, not Congress, can decide on voter eligibility, within the contours of the 15th, 19th, 24th, and 26th amendments
drive.google.com
U.S. v. Cox.pdf
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Aaron Reichlin-Melnick @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Suuuuper interesting, I was not tracking this. The judge found the law criminalizing noncitizen voting is a voter qualification statute, and therefore outside of Congress’s power. Surprisingly, this is an issue of first impression! Decision is here: storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
The best reading of the actual statute that underpins this criminal case yields an inescapable
conclusion: 18 U.S.C. S 611 is a voter qualification statute, and the Constitution does not authorize
Congress to legislate voter qualifications for federal elections. Except for very specific constitutional
provisions (that cannot support this statute; we will go through them, Congress has no power to say
who can vote or who cannot vote in federal elections-that foundational power is reserved for the States,
and limits Congress.
Some legal principles are so fundamental that they form American constitutional bedrock, and
this case reveals a big one: When you're prosecuted based on a law that Congress did not have the
authority to pass, the prosecution cannot stand. That principle in federal law harkens back to cases
like Marbury v. Madison, 5 U.S. 137, 180 (1803), and United States v. Hudson, 11 U.S. 32, 34 (1812), and
has had explicit and unbroken support in criminal cases since Ex Parte Siebold, 100 U.S. 371, 376-77
(1879) ("An unconstitutional law is void, and is as no law. An offence created by it is not a crime. A
conviction under it is not merely erroneous, but is illegal and void, and cannot be a legal cause of
imprisonment."). The principle is so fundamental that it even predates our constitutional republic; it
lies at the very heart of our constitutional heritage. See, e.g., Bayard v. Singleton, 1 N.C. 5, 9-10 (1787) (striking down a legislative act as unconstitutional and holding that a court cannot enforce an
unconstitutional law in any type of proceeding). This principle acts as a shield for every person facing
criminal prosecution in the United States, citizen and non-citizen alike. That shield protects the
Defendant here, and none of the Government's arguments break through it.
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Colin @colin-fraser.net · 02/10/2026
So when it produces right answers to these, it is certainly not regurgitating memorized answers. It's doing ~*~*~SoMeThInG eLsE~*~*~. There are all kinds of questions to ask about the nature of whatever it's doing. Maybe it understands math in its mind. Maybe it's doing mindless symbol manipulation.
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Alex Merz 🇺🇸🇨🇦🇺🇦 @merz.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
It's hard to put into words how angry I am about this.
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Dan Garisto @dangaristo.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Good end-of-FY coverage by the Times. The amount of unspent funds has wiggled but it was pretty clear for some time now that NSF was simply not going to spend a substantial portion of its congressional appropriation this year.
nytimes.com
National Science Foundation Diverted $1.4 Billion in Science Funds Mandated by Congress
The move, affecting about one-fifth of the National Science Foundation’s primary research budget, is the latest sign of how the White House is asserting more control over grants.
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Chatham Harrison dba TRUMP DELENDUS EST @chathamharrison.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Expecting men to understand the media they choose to consume is itself misandry
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