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Jeremy Barofsky

@jbarofsky.bsky.social
1.5K followers 321 following 107 posts

Associate Research Professor, Better Government Lab, Georgetown University, Interested in the economics of health and poverty; formerly @ideas42 @Brookings and @USCPrice Schaeffer Center, alum of @HarvardChanSPH & @BU

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Reposted by Jeremy Barofsky
Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 4h
New working paper: the Norwegian wealth tax was a huge success. The "exodus" of wealthy people never happened (less than 100 individuals left). Tax revenue increased by 71.5%. No changes in business activity or investment. www.nber.org/papers/w35854
Taxing Entrepreneurial Wealth: Evidence from
Norway, 2021-2025
Marius A. K. Ring
WORKING PAPER 35854|
DOl 10.3386/w35854
ISSUE DATE October 2026
Whether imposing higher taxes on business owners adversely affects business activity by constraining investment and inducing capitalist flight is a central question in the ongoing debate on how to tax the ultra wealthy. To shed new light, I exploit a series of related Norwegian reforms during 2021-2024 that increased dividend tax rates, removed migration-related capital gains tax loopholes, and nearly doubled the effective marginal tax rate on business wealth. These reforms spurred international debate and, allegedly, an "exodus" of Norwegian billionaires (Financial Times,
2023). While I document clear effects on migration, these responses are concentrated among the top 0.1% of the wealth distribution and mostly confined to 2022 and 2023. My results indicate that at most 100 individuals left due to the reforms. I find no evidence of significant outmigration or reduced inflows of startup founders or inventors. I estimate that absent any outmigration, wealth tax revenues would have increased by 75% from 2021 to 2024. Reform-driven outmigration lowers the revenue gain to 71.5%. My findings further show that outmigrating owners' firms remain economically active and do not reduce investment. In a broader set of analyses, I examine whether business outcomes are affected, regardless of whether owners outmigrate, since firms may reduce investment both due to liquidity constraints or distortions to owners' savings decisions. I compare firms owned by Norwegian individuals subject to the wealth tax with firms owned by foreigners and other tax-exempt entities. By merging historical ownership data from Orbis with the Norwegian shareholder register, I perform these analyses on both Norwegian and foreign-domiciled firms.
Across settings, I find no evidence that Norwegian-owned firms pay out more dividends or invest less after the reforms,…
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Yael Schacher @yaelschacher.bsky.social · 6h
I am in Cap Haitien interviewing people deported from the United States. I have been doing this kind of work for almost a decade and it literally does not get more dire than this. People have lost everything they built in the U.S. and are terrified and have no place to go or way to live.
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Jeremy Barofsky @jbarofsky.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
assisting U.S. service members in Afghanistan." These are people who played by the rules and faced significant trauma, some in direct support of the U.S. abroad. They deserve better. The richest country in the history of the world certainly could provide this bare minimum of support.
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Jeremy Barofsky @jbarofsky.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
chilling effects among eligible immigrants and their children. The Oct 1 changes mean *legal* immigrants lost coverage. People who were, per KFF, "previously eligible include refugees of war, asylees who fled persecution, victims of sex trafficking, and interpreters who risked their lives ...
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Jeremy Barofsky @jbarofsky.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
OBBA's effects mostly take effect starting Jan 1. Already, 6.3 million people, including 2.5 million children have lost Medicaid coverage since Jan 2025. Reasons include expiration of waivers that alleviated burdens for eligible people to get coverage and ccf.georgetown.edu/feature/stat...
ccf.georgetown.edu
State by State Medicaid and CHIP Enrollment Data
This tracker shows enrollment data for Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) in all 50 states and DC, from January 2025 to the most recent month available. Data include total Med...
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Jeremy Barofsky @jbarofsky.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
As of yesterday, the first eligibility changes from the so-called "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" in Medicaid took effect. Estimates vary, but 9 states and DC report that more than 280,000 people lost health care access (177k in FL alone). These loses are a 'canary in the coal mine' for Medicaid since
kffhealthnews.org
US Poised To Boot Legal Immigrants From Medicaid, Including Refugees and Sex-Trafficking Victims - KFF Health News
The Congressional Budget Office estimated 100,000 more immigrants will be uninsured by 2034 because of Medicaid eligibility changes under President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act that take effect ...
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NPR @npr.org · 01/10/2026
Starting Oct. 1, many immigrants who are here legally lose their Medicaid coverage because of the Republican budget bill passed last year. n.pr/4z0FPpq
n.pr
'It's a nightmare.' Former refugee, professor on Trump's new Medicaid policy
Starting Oct. 1, many immigrants who are here legally lose their Medicaid coverage because of the Republican budget bill passed last year.
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Edwin Park @edwincpark.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
From @brucelesley.bsky.social a comprehensive dismantling of the Paragon Institute's attempt to explain away a well over 2 million decline in #Medicaid and CHIP enrollment among children since the start of the Trump Administration even before most of H.R. 1's massive Medicaid cuts take effect.
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Kathleen Romig @kathleenromig.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
The Social Security data SCOTUS just cleared the Trump Admin to use is known to have outdated and missing information on citizenship. Using it will almost certainly disenfranchise eligible citizen voters in the midterms. www.cbpp.org/research/fed...
cbpp.org
Trump Administration Doubles Down on Using Flawed Data to Restrict Voting Access
September 10, 2026: In September, the Trump Administration asked the Supreme Court to overturn a lower-court ruling blocking the use of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS)’s Systematic Alien Ver...
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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 11/09/2026
He's on stage to demonstrate that, as long as you are in the president's political coalition, you are above the law.
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The Author, Séamas O'Reilly @seamas.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Have seen this Nature piece about the effects of X's algorithm mentioned again and it bears repeating; exposure to a right wing algorithm makes you - measurably and predictably - more right wing, even after you stop using it. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
The political effects of X’s feed algorithm - Nature
Among users initially on a chronological feed, 7 weeks of exposure to X’s algorithmic feed in 2023 shifted political attitudes and account-following behaviour in a more conservative direction compared...
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Caitlin Patler @caitlinpatler.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
🚨 Job Alert! 🚨 Chloe East (CU Boulder Econ) & I are hiring a postdoc to work on causal research on impacts of imm policy on immigrant children & families + rapid response descriptive work. Please share & encourage qualified candidates to apply! aprecruit.berkeley.edu/JPF05505
aprecruit.berkeley.edu
PostDoctoral Scholar Employee - Goldman School of Public Policy
University of California, Berkeley is hiring. Apply now!
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Migration Policy Institute @migrationpolicy.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Tomorrow is the scheduled expiration of US Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for El Salvador Many Salvadorans have held TPS for more than 2 decades Here’s what to know about the ending of many TPS designations: bit.ly/TrumpTPS
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Migration Policy Institute @migrationpolicy.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
🩺More than 1/5 of U.S. immigrant workers from Haiti are in the health-care sector. Here’s how that compares to other groups: bit.ly/HaitianImmigrantStats
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Center on Budget and Policy Priorities @centeronbudget.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
We've updated our Health Coverage Tracker with the latest Medicaid enrollment data. As of May 2026, 4.8 million fewer people had Medicaid than a year earlier. Explore the latest national and state data: www.cbpp.org/research/hea...
cbpp.org
Health Coverage Tracker: Millions of People Are Losing Coverage Following 2025 Republican Policy Changes
This tool tracks declines in the number of people enrolled in the ACA marketplaces and Medicaid: two sources of coverage that have been crucial to delivering affordable health care to people with low ...
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Dani Rodrik @drodrik.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
While everyone fixates on manufacturing and re-industrialization, it is services that is experiencing a productivity revolution. The revolution is global and taking place in some of the most labor-intensive sectors. My latest www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/s...
project-syndicate.org
The Quiet Revolution in Services
Dani Rodrik explains why strong productivity growth in the sector is as welcome as it is unexpected.
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Texas hospitals expect to lose $27 million a day in Medicaid funding starting Tuesday www.texastribune.org/2026/08/31/t...
texastribune.org
Texas hospitals to lose $27 million in Medicaid funding daily
Starting Sept. 1, the Trump administration will withhold about $9.8 billion in extra annual funding that helps hospitals cover the difference between Medicaid payments and the actual cost of services.
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Katie Bergh @katiebergh.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
New state-reported data on SNAP participation in July 2026 shows the number of Nebraskans receiving SNAP plummeted by roughly 22% in the year after these cuts were enacted.
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Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 31/08/2026
IMO @cbo.bsky.social is doing some of the most important work in complex systems today. He understands that context is everything. Take a look.
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Center on Budget and Policy Priorities @centeronbudget.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Arkansas enacted another income tax cut that primarily benefits the state's highest-income households, even as communities face growing health care challenges and mounting fiscal pressures www.cbpp.org/research/sta...
cbpp.org
While Arkansans Struggle to Access Health Care, State Leaders Insist on More Tax Cuts for the Wealthy
August 24, 2026: In May, Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders signed the state’s fourth income tax cut in four years, continuing a march toward her stated goal of complete elimination of Arkansas’...
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Rebecca Spang @rlspang.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Once again in case somebody here missed the message (unlikely on BlueSky perhaps!). Crypto is at best a speculative asset: you buy it because you think a bigger fool will buy it from you for more. Its main "use case" is paying ransoms and buying drugs, weapons etc.
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Gil Durán @gilduran.com · 15/08/2026
First I was banned from X/Twitter. Then Facebook banned my newsletter. Then X/Twitter banned me permanently. Now YouTube disables my channel the week of my book launch. Was it something I said? 👉 www.simonandschuster.com/books/The-Ne...
Stack of books. The nerd Reich, Gil Duran.
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Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 12/08/2026
Incredible. When E—n M—k & his crew obliterated USAID in a weekend, they deleted a vast trove of publicly-funded knowledge: the Development Experience Clearinghouse. A Canadian high school student (!) happened to have downloaded the entire thing for a project. AidData has now posted it for all.
aiddata.org
Before reimagining development data, remember what we’ve learned
Why we’re publishing a free, searchable, and ungated archive featuring a quarter-century of USAID evaluation reports.
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Phil Rocco @philiprocco.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
Totally irresponsible for columnists, journalists, and electeds to keep parroting this nonsense. See Young et al. “The most striking finding of this research is how little elites seem willing to move to exploit tax advantages across state lines in the United States.” www.jstor.org/stable/24756...
jstor.org
Millionaire Migration and Taxation of the Elite: Evidence from Administrative Data | JSTOR
Cristobal Young, Charles Varner, Ithai Z. Lurie, Richard Prisinzano, Millionaire Migration and Taxation of the Elite: Evidence from Administrative Data, American Sociological Review, Vol. 81, No. 3, J...
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Elizabeth Wilkins @elizabethwwilkins.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Last fall I was horrified to hear from a Roosevelt Network alum and Detroit public servant about the fight Detroit is putting up against RealToken to protect its tenants from crypto-fueled greed. Now @wsj.com has investigated the full scope of the harm.
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
We've been running an unprecedented natural experiment running for a decade and half. 30 states have raised their minimum wages. 20 have not. What happened to pay? What happened to jobs? The good news is that it's pretty easy to figure out now. substack.com/home/post/p-...
substack.com
A Minimum Wage Natural Experiment Has Been Running for Over a Decade
When 30 States Raised Minimum Wages, What Happened to Pay and Jobs?
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Very excited for this new essay at "Can We Still Govern?": The key claim is that planning for a progressive future cannot just focus on new policies. It also has to include - to start with - political power. What does a power-shifting perspective look like? 🧵 donmoynihan.substack.com/p/rebuilding...
donmoynihan.substack.com
Rebuilding Democracy Requires Rebalancing Power
What does a power-shifting agenda look like?
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Adam Serwer @adamserwer.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
We’re starving millions of Americans so musk and bezos can get tax cuts and trump can collect bribes www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/...
theatlantic.com
The Coming Food-Stamp Crisis
A looming deadline may force some states to end SNAP next year.
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Isabella M. Weber @isabellamweber.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
(1/3) The IMF finds “China is backing strategic businesses, like green tech, while the west props up old sectors with political clout, like agriculture.” In the West, capital disciplines the state to prop up high profits in old industries.
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Timothy McBride @mcbridetd.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
HAPPY BIRTHDAY Medicare and Medicaid! 61 years ago President Johnson signed the Medicare/Medicaid legislation in Independence, MO, the hometown of President Harry Truman. For decades Medicare and Medicaid has provided crucial access to affordable coverage to those needing it.
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Jonathan Horowitz @jonathanhorowi1.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
Other people have made this point, but it's crazy that universities haven't been supporting development of open-weight LLMs and forking over cash to the big players. I would trust LLMs way, way more if there was something that had the decentralized, open-source and repository-based structure of R.
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
When journalists asked me about where we would see the effects of DOGE, my answer was a) during crises and b) for the big services that interact with the public like SSA, VA and IRS. So lets check in on the IRS: www.motherjones.com/politics/202...
motherjones.com
The IRS is imploding.
The CEO says the agency is proving it's possible to have “less people and better results.”
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
TPS for Haitians officially expires tomorrow. ICE is planning big operations, with Springfield, Ohio among the targets www.cbsnews.com/news/ice-hai...
cbsnews.com
ICE plans to target Haitians as Temporary Protected Status is set to end, sources say
The plans include arresting migrants in Ohio and quickly putting them on deportation flights to crisis-stricken Haiti, the internal documents indicate.
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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 27/07/2026
Ethnic cleansing of 100s of 1000s of people who have lived in the USA as legal, productive neighbors for over a decade Will harm them & the communities they've helped keep vital White supremacist ideologues want white Americans to believe this will help us It's a dirty, harmful lie
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Mike Masnick @masnick.com · 24/07/2026
Some interesting provocations here...
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Apoorva Mandavilli @apoorvanyt.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
The Trump administration’s cuts to the largest global HIV program last year resulted in sharp drops in both prevention efforts and treatment for the people most at risk from the disease. www.nytimes.com/2026/07/21/h...
nytimes.com
1,700 H.I.V. Treatment Sites Closed After Trump Aid Cuts, a Study Finds (Gift Article)
New research also shows that children and high-risk adult populations have been particularly affected.
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Why has DSA grown? One argument from this research: not just ideology, but organization. Strong membership plus ongoing and continuous participation in social movements creates credibility, committed volunteers, political skills, and durable electoral capacity. www.niskanencenter.org/inside-the-d...
niskanencenter.org
Inside the Democratic Socialist uprising - Niskanen Center
Candidates affiliated with (or sympathetic to) the Democratic Socialists of America (the DSA) have recently won several Democratic primaries.
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Travis Roach @troach.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
We know that hot days lead to worsening health outcomes. Surprisingly, we have very little info on the fiscal impact these hot days have on government programs like Medicaid. In this new paper, we match over a million Medicaid records across nearly 16,000 U.S. ZIP codes to daily temperature data (🧵)
static.klipy.com
Why? Scrubs Scene
ALT: Why? Scrubs Scene
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Elizabeth Wrigley-Field @wrigleyfield.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
New working paper from Ritikaa Khanna, @rourkeobrien.bsky.social, @astokespop.bsky.social, @atheendar.bsky.social, & me We apply a new lens to the great (non-Covid) debate of US mortality studies: What's up w the 2010s? It emphasizes that US longevity worsened against a background of increasing $$
nber.org
The U.S. Mortality Crisis as a Preston Curve Reversal
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
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Bryce Covert @brycecovert.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
This is really, really, really bad. I spoke to two mothers who lost food stamps who are eating less in order to feed their kids and still struggling to give their kids enough nutritious food www.thenation.com/article/econ...
thenation.com
The Trump Administration Is Making It Nearly Impossible to Get Food Stamps
New work requirements and restrictions on SNAP have kicked millions off the benefit rolls, with more reductions to come.
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Eric Michael Garcia @ericmgarcia.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Andy Kim suggests a new health care policy: -Enroll every child in Medicaid until the age of 26 www.notus.org/healthcare/a...
notus.org
Andy Kim’s Big Health Care Pitch: Enroll Every Kid in Medicaid
The New Jersey senator takes a unique, long-game approach to a top Democratic goal.
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Tom Hearden @followtheh.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Two weeks ago today, after Nasdaq willingly rigged the rules, somewhere btw $7-10 bil of passive money was forced to buy SpaceX at $160.42 Today, 10 trading days later, it closed at $119.85 It’s an unprecedented forced loss (at least $2b) for passive investors and our financial media is 🦗
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Amy Maxmen, PhD @amymaxmen.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
DOGE axed the CDC team that tracks cyclospora. Now 1000s are sick, restaurants & hospitals scrambling. What's next? “Cyclospora is just one piece. It's making the news right now, but there are other, more dangerous pathogens.” By @emilymullin.bsky.social www.wired.com/story/cdc-cy...
wired.com
The CDC Has a Cyclospora Lab. DOGE Downsized It Last Year
“Based on simple math, these outbreak responses—which require rapid, timely responses—are going to be greatly diminished,” the former CDC lab director tells WIRED.
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Bat 🦇 Borus @matthewborus.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Public charge regulations have been backward and eugenicist from the start. (And yes, eugenicist is the term here--the archives make no secret of that.) And the Trump administration's new public charge rule is pure cruelty, designed to scare immigrant families away from vital safety net programs.
pifcoalition.org
Trump “Public Charge” Policy Means Chaos, Bias, Harm Advocates Warn - Protecting Immigrant Families
EL PASO, TEXAS — The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) released final regulations Thursday concerning administration of federal immigration law’s “public charge” provision, which applies to m...
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Luke Farrell @lukef.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
We’ve got big plans for NYC! Mayor Mamdani is serious about delivering on affordability and the PIT Crew is the team that will help get it done 🏎️🏁
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Asjad Naqvi @asjadnaqvi.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
The #DiD page has been updated after two years! The site has been substantially cleaned up: code is now better documented, resources have been expanded, list of Stata/Python/R/Julia packages updated, and all Stata code has been revalidated. Check it out: asjadnaqvi.github.io/DiD/
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Rosanna Landis Weaver @landisweaver.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
This news must somehow reach Trump voters, though I very much doubt it will.
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