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Andrew Stokes

@astokespop.bsky.social
5.5K followers 1.3K following 48 posts

Associate Professor at Boston University; Population Health, Demography, Sociology

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Reposted by Andrew Stokes
Population Aging Research Center @pennaging.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
💥 The U.S. Mortality Crisis as a Preston Curve Reversal By Ritikaa Khanna @rourkeobrien.bsky.social @astokespop.bsky.social @atheendar.bsky.social @wrigleyfield.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w35470 Economic growth in the 2010s no longer translated into broad gains in life expectancy
nber.org
The U.S. Mortality Crisis as a Preston Curve Reversal
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.
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Reposted by Andrew Stokes
Elizabeth Wrigley-Field @wrigleyfield.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
New working paper from Ritikaa Khanna, @rourkeobrien.bsky.social, @astokespop.bsky.social, @atheendar.bsky.social, & me We apply a new lens to the great (non-Covid) debate of US mortality studies: What's up w the 2010s? It emphasizes that US longevity worsened against a background of increasing $$
nber.org
The U.S. Mortality Crisis as a Preston Curve Reversal
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
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Andrew Stokes @astokespop.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
New paper out in @jamanetworkopen.com In 2022, there were 905,159 more deaths in the US than we'd expect if Americans had death rates of other high-income countries. That difference has nearly tripled since 1999. COVID played a role but gap was widening well before 2020. tinyurl.com/y4ecvfrs
tinyurl.com
Causes of Excess Deaths in the US Compared With Other High-Income Countries
This cross-sectional study examines excess mortality in the US compared with other high-income countries from 1999 to 2022 and investigates causes of death accounting for the disparity.
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Atheendar Venkataramani @atheendar.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
This paper is incredible. The question, the data, the methods. Congrats to @jacob-bor.bsky.social and team! Can't wait to teach it in the methods class next year!
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Elizabeth Wrigley-Field @wrigleyfield.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
A great write-up on brand-new research I was involved in. We used a really different approach from the ones that we & many others have used previously to estimate how many Covid deaths there *really* were--almost 20% more than known. Our results broadly accord w others but add new demographic detail
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Mike Stobbe @mikestobbe.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
The COVID-19 pandemic’s early death toll was much higher than the official U.S. count, according to a new study that spotlights dramatic disparities in the uncounted deaths. apnews.com/article/covi...
apnews.com
More than 150,000 uncounted COVID-19 deaths occurred early in the pandemic, a study finds
A new study says the early U.S. COVID-19 death toll is much higher than official counts, and that there were disparities in which deaths were missing from those tallies.
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Eric Topol @erictopol.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
19% more deaths from Covid in the US than counted thru 2021 www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
Applying machine learning to identify unrecognized COVID-19 deaths recorded as other causes of death in the United States
A machine learning approach suggests that COVID-19 deaths were undercounted unevenly across sociodemographic groups in 2020–2021.
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Andrew Stokes @astokespop.bsky.social · 22/09/2025
Preston’s death was first labeled an overdose. The autopsy found no drugs. Likely an asthma attack amid LA’s wildfires. Our recent analysis suggests 440 excess deaths—far beyond the official 31. We’re undercounting climate’s toll. @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
jamanetwork.com
Excess Deaths Attributable to the Los Angeles Wildfires From January 5 to February 1, 2025
This study aims to estimate the number of excess deaths attributable to the Los Angeles wildfires using an interrupted time series design.
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Reposted by Andrew Stokes
Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
I also recommend this great piece in the @us.theconversation.com by @wrigleyfield.bsky.social @astokespop.bsky.social & colleagues walking through some of their great work to counter this myth of "overcounting" coming out of previous news cycle. theconversation.com/covid-19-dea...
theconversation.com
COVID-19 deaths in the US continue to be undercounted, research shows, despite claims of ‘overcounts’
Taking into consideration the number of excess deaths caused by COVID-19 compared with pre-pandemic years is critical to getting an accurate accounting of the pandemic’s real toll.
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Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 09/09/2025
Persistent minimizing of the COVID death toll hits me especially hard in the #demography feels. To be clear: ➡️ Over one million Americans died of COVID-19. ➡️ Official COVID deaths were likely undercounted, not overcounted. jenndowd.substack.com/p/how-many-p...
jenndowd.substack.com
How many people died of COVID?
We likely undercounted, not overcounted COVID deaths
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Elizabeth Wrigley-Field @wrigleyfield.bsky.social · 20/08/2025
As a mortality researcher, I haven’t generally paid a lot of attention to people my own age (elder Millennial here). That’s, unfortunately, changing. (With @astokespop.bsky.social and Jacob Bor)
slate.com
Millennials Are Dying at an Alarming Rate. We Have a Few Ideas as to Why.
America is not a good place to be an early adult.
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Eugenio Paglino @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social · 11/08/2025
New study 🚨 out in @jama.com! We find that California wildfires🔥in January may have contributed 440 excess deaths in Los Angeles County. This estimate significantly exceeds the 30 direct fatalities linked to these events jamanetwork.com/journals/jam... @pophel.bsky.social @helsinki.fi
jamanetwork.com
Excess Deaths Attributable to the Los Angeles Wildfires From January 5 to February 1, 2025
This study aims to estimate the number of excess deaths attributable to the Los Angeles wildfires using an interrupted time series design.
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Reposted by Andrew Stokes
Richard M. Carpiano, PhD, MPH @rmcarpiano.medsky.social · 07/08/2025
Study: 30 direct fatalities from the L.A. wildfires, but 440 deaths from January 5 to February 1, 2025 attributable to the wildfires--likely reflecting "a combination of factors, including increased exposure to poor air quality and health care delays and interruptions..." 🛟 😷 health policy
jamanetwork.com
Excess Deaths Attributable to the Los Angeles Wildfires From January 5 to February 1, 2025
This study aims to estimate the number of excess deaths attributable to the Los Angeles wildfires using an interrupted time series design.
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JAMA @jama.com · 06/08/2025
An estimated 440 excess deaths were attributed to the January 2025 wildfires in Los Angeles County, underscoring indirect health effects and the need for improved mortality tracking. ja.ma/4oFM3af #MedSky
Excess Deaths Attributable to the Los Angeles
Wildfires From January 5 to February 1, 2025
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Population Aging Research Center @pennaging.bsky.social · 23/06/2025
NEW PAPER: "Evolution of the US nonmetropolitan mortality disadvantage by sex, state, and year, 1999‐2019" in @jruralhealth.bsky.social w/Associates Irma Elo & Samuel Preston @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social K Hempstead @astokespop.bsky.social doi.org/10.1111/jrh.... pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...
doi.org
Evolution of the US nonmetropolitan mortality disadvantage by sex, state, and year, 1999‐2019
Purpose To examine disparities in nonmetropolitan and metropolitan mortality by state and sex from 1999 to 2019. Methods We calculate age-standardized mortality rates for nonmetropolitan and metro...
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Andrew Stokes @astokespop.bsky.social · 17/06/2025
The U.S. once saw steady declines in mortality—but progress stalled around 2010. New research: In 2023 alone, there were 525,505 more deaths than expected had pre-2010 trends continued. 91% were among adults without a BA degree. Most were due to CVD and diabetes. jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
jamanetwork.com
Diverging Mortality Trends by Educational Attainment in the US
This cross-sectional study examines trends in US mortality rates by sex and educational attainment before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Maria Glymour @mariaglymour.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
Thanks to The Oklahoman (www.oklahoman.com) for running my opinions on the new budget and impacts on Alzheimer's research (bit.ly/4mZXrg7) and public health progress for all of us. #PublicHealth #EndAlzheimers #Epidemiology #ScienceHomecoming
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Elizabeth Wrigley-Field @wrigleyfield.bsky.social · 29/05/2025
For 40 years, Americans have lived shorter lives than people in other rich countries. For 10 years, that's been rapidly getting worse. New research: in 2022-2023, there were 1.5 million "missing Americans," who died--but wouldn't have, if America didn't have such uniquely high death rates.
jamanetwork.com
Excess US Deaths Before, During, and After the COVID-19 Pandemic
This cohort study examines trends in excess deaths in the US before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Andrew Stokes @astokespop.bsky.social · 27/05/2025
New study with @jacob-bor.bsky.social @wrigleyfield.bsky.social & colleagues estimates that US saw 705,331 excess deaths in 2023—a number in line w/ rising pre-pandemic trend. Over 1.5 million deaths could’ve been averted in 2022–23 if US mortality matched peer nations. 🧵 (1/5) tinyurl.com/569pr9ty
tinyurl.com
Excess US Deaths Before, During, and After the COVID-19 Pandemic
This cohort study examines trends in excess deaths in the US before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Eric Topol @erictopol.bsky.social · 23/05/2025
Excess deaths in the US vs other high-income countries. Coming down relative to prior US data but still the outlier jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
jamanetwork.com
Excess US Deaths Before, During, and After the COVID-19 Pandemic
This cohort study examines trends in excess deaths in the US before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Elizabeth Wrigley-Field @wrigleyfield.bsky.social · 30/04/2025
The biggest project I've worked on for the last chunk of years was just published. It asks, how big are US Black-white lifespan differences? This might seem like a narrow question. I hope to convince you by the end that there are answers you didn't anticipate. And I hope some of them will move you.
annualreviews.org
Three Ways of Looking at Black–White Mortality Differences in the United States | Annual Reviews
Everyone agrees that US Black deaths happen earlier than white deaths on average, but it is surprisingly challenging to find the best ways to summarize, quantify, and compare this gap. This review arg...
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Atheendar Venkataramani @atheendar.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
A neat paper by @wrigleyfield.bsky.social @astokespop.bsky.social and team looks into this post 2010 period, showing that death rates from many different conditions increased relative to previous trends. More evidence of generalized #populationhealth stressors. jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
jamanetwork.com
Mortality Trends Among Early Adults in the United States, 1999-2023
This cross-sectional study examines trends in mortality rates among adults aged 25 to 44 years across the pre–COVID-19 pandemic, pandemic, and postpandemic periods.
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Sander Wagner @sanderwagner.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
Excess mortality rates of U.S. Americans age 25-44 (relative to 1999-2010 baseline) by cause of death from @wrigleyfield.bsky.social and co-authors from new article here: jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
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Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 06/02/2025
1/ How should public health think about new GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic? Do pharmaceutical solutions undermine public health prevention efforts? In @milbankfund.bsky.social, Neil Mehta & I consider what new anti-obesity drugs might mean for population health. 🔗 www.milbank.org/quarterly/op...
milbank.org
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Andrew Stokes @astokespop.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
New study with @wrigleyfield.bsky.social & colleagues finds that excess deaths among young U.S. adults have surged since 2011, accelerating during the pandemic and remaining high in 2023. Our research shows that this crisis extends far beyond drug overdoses. 🧵 (1/6) jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
jamanetwork.com
Mortality Trends Among Early Adults in the United States, 1999-2023
This cross-sectional study examines trends in mortality rates among adults aged 25 to 44 years across the pre–COVID-19 pandemic, pandemic, and postpandemic periods.
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Eric Topol @erictopol.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
U.S. Mortality trends in the young, ages 25-44 years jamanetwork.com/journals/jam... Drug overdoses are the leading cause of excess mortality. There were substantial numbers of Covid fatalities in this age group during the peak pandemic
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Elizabeth Wrigley-Field @wrigleyfield.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
New today: Death rates for Americans aged 25-44 have been rising since 2010. Their mortality is now 70% higher than it would be had pre-2011 mortality declines continued. w Rafeya Raquib, Katie Berry, Keeley Morris, & @astokespop.bsky.social 1/ jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
Bar chart showing excess mortality of Americans aged 25-44, in 2011-2023, broken into causes of death. The chart shows a big growth over time, especially from drug deaths, "other natural causes," and transport-related deaths (car collisions), as well as from Covid-19 in 2021.Line graph showing the relative (proportional) excess mortality of Americans aged 25-44, in 2011-2023, broken into causes of death. The graph shows big growth in "other natural causes," transport deaths (car collisions), alcohol-related deaths, and homicide.
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Jennifer Weuve @epidancer.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
#MELODEM is accepting applications--by 1/27/25--to participate in this year's Annual In-Person Meeting! The meeting features: Jun 23-25: presentations w extensive discussion Jun 25-27: hands-on data workshop, involving a subset of participants See deets & apply: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
docs.google.com
Application for 2025 Annual MELODEM Meeting
We are delighted to announce that we are accepting applications to participate in MELODEM's Annual In-Person Meeting which will be held in St. James Hotel in Red Wing, MN from Monday, June 23rd to Fri...
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Eugenio Paglino @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
The first report from our collaboration with the Society of Actuaries (SOA) is now out! @astokespop.bsky.social We look at cause-specific excess mortality in the US and reflect on the most likely explanations for the gap between excess and COVID-19 mortality. www.soa.org/resources/re...
soa.org
Cause-Specific Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic
This report presents initial findings from a project investigating the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 in the post-acute phase of the pandemic.
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MIDAS Network @midas-network.bsky.social · 12/12/2024
The Department of Demography at the University of California, Berkeley, invites applications for a Postdoctoral Scholar position in the research group of Prof. Ayesha Mahmud. For more info, visit: aprecruit.berkeley.edu/JPF04716
aprecruit.berkeley.edu
Postdoctoral Scholar Employee - Demography
University of California, Berkeley is hiring. Apply now!
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Berkeley Population Sciences @berkeleypopcenter.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
@ucberkeleyofficial.bsky.social is accepting applications for Fall 2025 for the PhD program in Demography AND the Graduate Group in Sociology & Demography. Seeking a diverse and strong cohort; applications DUE 12/17/2024. Learn more about the program: www.demog.berkeley.edu/graduate-pro...
demog.berkeley.edu
Graduate Program - Department of Demography
Graduate Program UC Berkeley Demography offers three graduate degree tracks independently and in conjunction with the department of Sociology. Ph.D. in Demography The doctoral program is intended to p...
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Michael D. Green, PhD @michaeldgreen.phd · 03/12/2024
IAPHS is where I gave my first oral presentation. Super welcoming community and the annual meeting always brings together prolific researchers across all career stages. If you’re doing work in Population Health Sciences, you should submit an abstract! 🛟🧪 #MedSky #MedEd
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Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
I am endlessy fascinated by these new GLP-1 developments-how ironic would it be if these drugs were what reshaped the food industry? (esp. from a upstream-downstream social determinants of health perspective). #episky #publichealth @rmcarpiano.bsky.social
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Eugenio Paglino @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social · 01/09/2024
My dissertation "The Demography of Shocks: Migration and Mortality under the Influence of Environmental and Epidemiological Shocks" is now publicly available! repository.upenn.edu/entities/pub...
repository.upenn.edu
The Demography of Shocks: Migration and Mortality under the Influence of Environmental and Epidemiological Shocks
This dissertation makes three scientific contributions to the understanding of how human populations react to environmental and epidemiological shocks. The first chapter investigates the impact of tro...
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Carl Schmertmann @cschmert.bsky.social · 25/08/2024
My first try at a Demography "Starter Pack". There's a limit of 50 contacts, so this is definitely partial. go.bsky.app/FqXNjEh
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Ridhi Kashyap @ridhikashyap.bsky.social · 20/08/2024
We have a new faculty opening at Oxford Sociology and Nuffield College — come join us and be my colleague! An Oxford AP is the main faculty grade and a very broad category — covering those just out of PhD to those more senior, incl. Full Professor. www.sociology.ox.ac.uk/article/asso...
sociology.ox.ac.uk
Associate Professorship in Sociology
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Kathleen Bachynski @bachynski.bsky.social · 24/06/2024
“Since Texas’ ban on abortion went into effect, infant deaths in the state increased by nearly 13%, according to a new analysis published on Monday in JAMA Pediatrics. In the rest of the country, infant mortality increased less than 2% over the same period.”
statnews.com
Infant deaths increased after Texas banned abortion in early pregnancy
Since Texas’ ban on abortion went into effect, infant deaths in the state increased by nearly 13%, according to a new analysis published on Monday in JAMA Pediatrics.
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Karen Benjamin Guzzo @karenguzzo.bsky.social · 24/06/2024
Kudos to @alisongemmill.bsky.social & her team for doing important (but heartbreaking) work on the rise in infant mortality in Texas following its 2021 abortion ban. CNN coverage here: www.cnn.com/2024/06/24/h... Study here: jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
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Andrew Stokes @astokespop.bsky.social · 12/04/2024
Our new AJPH commentary with @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social discusses: 1. Excess mortality estimates and their interpretation 2. How to design an excess mortality analysis 3. Excess mortality as a tool to monitor future health emergencies beyond COVID-19 ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/abs/10.2...
ajph.aphapublications.org
Excess Mortality as a Tool to Monitor the Evolution of Health Emergencies: Choices, Challenges, and Future Directions
American Journal of Public Health (AJPH) from the American Public Health Association (APHA)
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Seth Trueger @mdaware.org · 20/02/2024
overall mortality is higher vs prepandemic current disparities in mortality: similar* to prepandemic, ie way higher for Black Americans *exception: nonurban mortality is higher than prepandemic by @wrigleyfield.bsky.social @astokespop.bsky.social in JAMA Netw Open jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
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Berkeley Population Sciences @berkeleypopcenter.bsky.social · 16/02/2024
We're now accepting applications to our 10th Annual Workshop on Formal Demography, Jun 3-7, 2024. The workshop covers classic topics incl fertility, mortality, & population dynamics. This year’s special emphasis is on the demography of immigration. populationsciences.berkeley.edu/population-c...
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Elizabeth Wrigley-Field @wrigleyfield.bsky.social · 15/02/2024
An under-emphasized aspect of preparing for future pandemics (and other disasters): modernize the US’s disastrously patchwork death reporting system
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Andrew Stokes @astokespop.bsky.social · 13/02/2024
Did the U.S. undercount COVID-19 deaths? Our new study in PNAS finds that: 1. There were approximately 163,000 excess deaths from natural causes other than COVID-19 between Mar 2020 and Aug 2022. 2. Many were unrecognized COVID-19 deaths Thread. www.bu.edu/sph/news/art...
bu.edu
New Analysis Reveals Many Excess Deaths Attributed to Natural Causes Are Actually Uncounted COVID-19 Deaths
The new study provides the most compelling data yet to suggest that excess mortality rates from chronic illnesses and other natural causes were actually driven by COVID-19 infections.
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Maria Glymour @mariaglymour.bsky.social · 09/02/2024
Here's the picture showing how the timing of spikes in excess natural cause deaths NOT due to diagnosed COVID changed in sync (or just a little earlier) than COVID death spikes. What would explain that? If the excess natural cause deaths were basically all undiagnosed COVID.
Cross-correlation plots examining temporal correlations between the monthly time series for reported COVID-19 deaths and the monthly time series for excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes in Census divisions and metropolitan–nonmetropolitan categories from March 2020 through August 2022. Increases in reported COVID-19 deaths may correlate with increases (positive correlation coefficient) or decreases (negative correlation coefficient) in excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes. The x axis indicates the time lag in months. Increases in reported COVID-19 deaths may correlate with changes in excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes in the same month (lag 0), in future months (lag greater than 0), and/or in previous months (lag less than 0). Correlation coefficients that are outside the gray shaded area indicate significance at alpha = 0.01 and are colored red to assist with interpretation.
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Maria Glymour @mariaglymour.bsky.social · 09/02/2024
Amazing work from colleagues (1st author E Paglino, sr author A Stokes) counting the unrecognized COVID deaths www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/.... I'm pasting the maps here b/c everyone loves maps, but the evidence that most convinced me was the timing of excess deaths vs COVID deaths (next skeet).
Map of counties in the united states color coded by rate of excess natural cause to covid-19 deaths (top panel, ranging from <=1 to >2) or probability that the ratio of excess natural cause deaths to COVID-19 deaths is greater than 1 (bottom panel).
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Eugenio Paglino @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social · 02/02/2024
🚨New article out in PNAS! We find 162,886 more excess deaths from natural causes than COVID-19 deaths in the first 30 mo of the pandemic and provide evidence that many of them are unrecognised COVID-19 deaths @astokespop.bsky.social www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.… (1/1)
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Maria Glymour @mariaglymour.bsky.social · 28/01/2024
I'm trying to write down some of the core public health ideas that I think are truly amazing -ideas I wish were part of popular understanding of health. Here's my first effort: www.linkedin.com/posts/maria-... (forgive slightly maudlin language and AI cover art). Suggestions welcome.
linkedin.com
Maria Glymour on LinkedIn: Public health ideas that blew my mind: common mistakes shouldn’t be dea...
#publichealth #epidemiology #graduateschool #injury #motorvehicle #rural
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Jenn Dowd @drjenndowd.bsky.social · 19/01/2024
New in PNAS w/ @polizzan.bsky.social we engage w/ recent work by Abrams, Myrskylä & Mehta that highlighted slowing older age mortality driving US life expectancy stagnation since 2010. 1/3 www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/... #episky #popsky #demography
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