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Gabriele Mari

@gmari.bsky.social
2.1K followers 2.9K following 56 posts

Sociologist @Erasmus University Rotterdam Social security, families, income/wealth sites.google.com/view/marigabriele/…

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Reposted by Gabriele Mari
Gabriele Mari @gmari.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
I wrote a short post for @ukdsimpact.bsky.social on the politics of survey data thinking about #unpaid #carers and #CarersAllowance. It's based on ongoing work @usociety.bsky.social on economic insecurity among carers past the earnings limit set by the allowance. More here: osf.io/preprints/so...
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Gabriele Mari @gmari.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
I wrote a short post for @ukdsimpact.bsky.social on the politics of survey data thinking about #unpaid #carers and #CarersAllowance. It's based on ongoing work @usociety.bsky.social on economic insecurity among carers past the earnings limit set by the allowance. More here: osf.io/preprints/so...
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Gabriele Mari @gmari.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Adolescent daughters help their mothers after job loss, and are perceived to be more supportive to others in general. I find signs of this gendered, inter-generational solidarity at play in Ireland after the financial crisis of 08/09, echoing findings from the Great Depression of the 1920s-30s. 1/
Growth trajectories in children's 'prosociality' (being perceived as helping or supportive to others) comparing similar families where women were laid off during the Great Recession v. not. Survey data from age 3 to 13 from a cohort of around 9,600 children born in Ireland in 2008/2009. Differences in the probability of helping regularly inside the household (for example, by looking after siblings) comparing similar families where women were laid off during the Great Recession v. not. Survey data from age 3 to 13 from a cohort of around 9,600 children born in Ireland in 2008/2009.
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Jamie Hanson @jamielarsh.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
More U.S. kids live in net worth poverty than income poverty, and almost no one studies it. Our new paper argues wealth deprivation shapes children's development in its own right, and that standard wealth measures miss the debts poorer families carry. academic.oup.com/cdpers/advan...
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Demographic Research @demresjournal.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
After an economic crisis, some children grow up to provide more comfort and support to other people. But speaking of resilience hides a web of market pressures, gender norms and care needs, argues @gmari.bsky.social 📄👉https://www.demographic-research.org/articles/volume/55/1
Children are perceived to be more prosocial (that is, supporting and comforting others) over time if their mother lost her job during the Great Recession in Ireland. These findings are driven by girls, especially those with younger siblings.
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Matt Donoghue @drdonoghue.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
JUST PUBLISHED! Great to see my commentary published in Critical Social Policy today: "The resilience trap: Deepening the 'risk shift' in social policy via the crisis and resilience fund". journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/... More in the following posts:
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Pat Hastings @ophastings.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
What’s happened to income-group gaps in parental spending on children in the U.S.? For the last 45 years, they just. keep. getting. wider. In a new @socarxiv.bsky.social working paper, I present updated evidence on trends in spending on childcare, education, and extracurricular activities.
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Eviction Lab @evictionlab.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
“Black mothers experience a convergence of traumas and disadvantage that results in an experience of sustained deprivation unlike what may be captured when examining a singular adversity or social system.” New research by our graduate research assistant Solome Haile:
academic.oup.com
Returning to an analysis of power and the centrality of black women: an empirical response to the battles over intersectionality
Abstract. In the decades since its conception, intersectionality scholarship has grown to span a range of topics, study populations, disciplines, and metho
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Reposted by Gabriele Mari
British Journal of Sociology @bjsociology.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
Drawing on qualitative interviews with middle-class households aged 30 to 39 in Paris, this paper examines how parental financial support is negotiated among homebuyers and renters and how it affects family relationships. #EarlyView in #BJS ➡️ onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
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Reposted by Gabriele Mari
Jess Calarco @jessicacalarco.com · 08/06/2026
NEW from me in @pnas.org on the risks of data sharing with qualitative research: "Today, confidentiality risks are amplified by social media, surveillance, and AI tools, which make ample data about people publicly available, thus making deidentification less effective" www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Article in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: "With qualitative research, the risks of data sharing can outweigh the rewards." June 5, 2026.
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Equalise: ESRC Centre for Lifecourse Health Equity @equalise.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
📢 Young carers are the forgotten group in NEET policy. They’re 119% more likely to be persistently NEET, and far less likely to complete FE/HE - a new study by @rebeccalacey.bsky.social shows. www.nuffieldfoundation.org/wp-content/u... @ucliehc.bsky.social @nuffieldfoundation.org
nuffieldfoundation.org
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Sociological Science @sociologicalsci.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
NEW: Nicolás Soler, Tom Emery, Agnieszka Kanas, "Family Networks and Childcare Choices: A Predictive Machine Learning Approach" sociologicalscience.com/articles-v13...
sociologicalscience.com
Family Networks and Childcare Choices: A Predictive Machine Learning Approach
Article: Family Networks and Childcare Choices: A Predictive Machine Learning Approach | Sociological Science | Posted June 2, 2026
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Gabriele Mari @gmari.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
Providing childcare services might mitigate the child penalty in labour markets. But what happens when childcare services are constrained by fiscal austerity? We examine this question in a new working paper with Emanuele Fedeli @lelepicchio.bsky.social. A short thread (link at the end) 1/
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 20/05/2026
New blog post! Let's say an effect you are interested in varies between countries and you want to explain some of that cross-cultural variation. What could possibly go wrong? www.the100.ci/2026/05/20/f...
the100.ci
Friends don’t let friends run moderated cross-country regressions
Header image: Moderate cross-country slopes (Photo: By Erik W. Kolstad - Flickr, CC BY 2.0,) Here’s a particular genre of article that relies on multiple data collection sites, such as studies anal...
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Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 14/05/2026
Two new facts stand out: 1. 85% of hallucinated citations in preprints are also in the subsequent journal version (thanks, peer review!) 2. Fake cites more likely to use the names of (male) scholars who are already highly cited, creating a fake-citation Matthew effect. arxiv.org/abs/2605.07723
arxiv.org
LLM hallucinations in the wild: Large-scale evidence from non-existent citations
Large language models (LLMs) are known to generate plausible but false information across a wide range of contexts, yet the real-world magnitude and consequences of this hallucination problem remain p...
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Oxford Social Policy and Intervention @dspi-oxford.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
NEW: Long-term childhood poverty in Britain rose sharply after austerity reforms 📈 The study, by @sbeduk.bsky.social (Departmental Lecturer in Comparative Social Policy) & Anna Yong found that more than 1 in 5 children born after 2013 experience poverty for at least half their childhood.
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Prem Sikka @premnsikka.bsky.social · 11/04/2026
UK's shadow workforce is paid as little as 65p an hour. Who cares for the carers? 6m unpaid carers provide vital support to sick, disabled, old. 1.4m receive Carer's Allowance of £86.45 a week. More likely to be prosecuted for tiny errors in claims. Govts don't value humanity.
theguardian.com
Britain's shadow workforce is paid as little as 65p an hour. Who cares for the carers? | Frances Ryan
Carer’s allowance turns 50 this year, but it’s no reflection of the labour of the millions who cook, clean and nurse behind closed doors, says Guardian columnist Frances Ryan
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Chloe N East (she/her) @chloeneast.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
The “big beautiful bill” greatly expanded SNAP work requirements for parents In my paper with @jasonbcook.bsky.social, forthcoming at JPUBE, we ask what similar, existing requirements do SNAP work requirements for parents deny vulnerable parents SNAP benefits and do not increase their employment
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Gabriele Mari @gmari.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
For unpaid #carers, earning more does not always lead to economic security. Motivated by the recent #Carer's #Allowance scandal, I have a new working paper @usociety.bsky.social on how much insecurity carers experience, for how long, who's most exposed and why: osf.io/preprints/so... 1/2
The figure shows reports of economic insecurity plotted against earnings from paid work. Earnings increase from left to right. At zero, earnings cross the Carer's Allowance limit of around 150 GBP per week. Past this limit, a carer loses eligibility for the allowance. 

Carers who never report receipt of the allowance in the survey experience less and less insecurity when their earnings are higher. 

For those with a history of benefit receipt, instead, insecurity doesn't decline smoothly. Arrears, the inability to save regularly, and money worries all spike past the earnings limit set by the allowance.
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Maximilian Kasy @maxkasy.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
David Autor (@davidautor.bsky.social) just wrote a very kind and thoughtful review of "The Means of Prediction" for the Journal of Economic Literature (@aeajournals.bsky.social): www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
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The Health Foundation @healthfoundation.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
Our analysis of national survey data (2018 to 2025) found 1 in 6 UK adults – equivalent to 8.9 million people – provided unpaid care in the period 2023–25. Learn how caring varies across groups, intersects with work and health, and about unpaid carers’ support needs ⬇️ bit.ly/3Mzj4ql
A bar graph showing the percentage of hours spent caring per week , UK, 2018-20 and 2023-25, showing there has been an increase in the proportion of people providing care for more than 20 hours per week.
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Reposted by Gabriele Mari
Nick Pearce @iprnickp.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
Repositioning care in economics: concepts, measurement, and policy implications url: academic.oup.com/oxrep/articl...
academic.oup.com
Repositioning care in economics: concepts, measurement, and policy implications
Abstract. Care work, encompassing childcare, eldercare, disability care, household maintenance and emotional support, sustains the human capabilities upon
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STICERD & CASE @ LSE @lse-sticerd-case.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
"Expanding Paternity Leave: Effects on Beliefs, Norms, and Gender Gaps" Read the latest @nber.org working paper by Camille Landais and co-authors Henrik Kleven, @ansolassen.bsky.social, Philip Rosenbaum, Herdis Steingrimsdottir & Jakob Egholt Søgaard www.nber.org/papers/w34862
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Ben Williamson @benpatrickwill.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
The inevitable next stage of academic publishers profiting from academics' work is here - scraping it for AI then charging subscriptions for access to the AI summaries, and then again for the citations. Academic content assetization as we called it in a recent paper. www.science.org/content/arti...
Screenshot reads:

She and other publishing specialists question whether LeapSpace’s limited reach is worth the cost. Users will need either an institutional subscription (based in part on the institution’s size and amount of research) or an individual one, which costs $32 a month. Many libraries are already struggling to afford existing subscriptions. And if users want to read the cited content, they will need a separate subscription to that content’s publisher—akin to paying for multiple video-streaming services.
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Journal of Marriage and Family @jmfncfr.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
A new article from The Conversation explores the effects of Denmark's policies on mothers' wages: tinyurl.com/39s6ukkc Two JMF articles are featured: one examining fathers' wages, one testing how paternity leave affects the gender wage gap: tinyurl.com/mtnwhymt tinyurl.com/ntrtxyh5
tinyurl.com
Denmark’s childcare and parental leave policies erase 80% of the ‘motherhood penalty’
Strong financial support from the government can make motherhood more affordable and promote gender equality in economic resources.
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 13/02/2026
New blog post about the age-period-cohort identification problem! In which, for the first time ever, I ask "What's the mechanism?" and also suggest that sometimes you may actually *not* be interested in causal inference. www.the100.ci/2026/02/13/o...
the100.ci
One approach to the age-period-cohort problem: Just don’t.
Just to cause yourself more problems, you seek for something. But there is no need for you to seek anything. You have plenty, and you have just enough problems. Shunryū Suzuki in a 1971 talk A ...
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European Sociological Review @europeansocreview.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
New #OpenAccess Bringing economic & family sociology into the digital era, @yanghu.co.uk & @yueqiansoc.bsky.social analyze longitudinal data from @usociety.bsky.social to reveal how the use of online banking shape couples' money management and financial decisions doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcag002
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Ben Williamson @benpatrickwill.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
New OA article just out on "assetizing academic content" led by @jkom.bsky.social with me, @keanbirch.bsky.social & Klaus Beiter, exploring how academic materials are turned into value-generating digital assets by HE institutions, edtech platforms, and AI companies link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com
Assetizing academic content and the emergence of the ‘assetizen’: education platforms, publisher databases, and AI model training - Higher Education
Higher Education - Academic content, such as teaching materials and academic publications, has become an economic resource. This has occurred through assetization as the key economic regime in...
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Giulia Corti @gcorti.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
☀️Happy to be back with a new article in @jmfncfr.bsky.social! W/ Saverio Minardi we explore how parental loss during childhood was linked to family formation in adulthood. This was my last contribution to the ERC funded project GENPOP. Check it out Open Access: doi.org/10.1111/jomf...
doi.org
<em>Journal of Marriage and Family</em> | NCFR Family Science Journal | Wiley Online Library
Objective This paper examines the long-term impact of parental loss in early years on family formation as adults in U.S. cohorts born between 1850 and 1910, focusing on age assortative mating and th.....
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Manuel Alvariño @manuel-alvarinho.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
New publication in the Journal of Public Policy!🚨 ⚖️It shows how feminist advocacy pushed for a reform entitling mothers and fathers to equal parental leave in Spain. 👉This also unveils that descriptive representation matters because it can open access for feminist groups. doi.org/10.1017/S014...
doi.org
Redefining influence: how a feminist advocacy group reformed paternity leave in Spain through insider women’s alliances | Journal of Public Policy | Cambridge Core
Redefining influence: how a feminist advocacy group reformed paternity leave in Spain through insider women’s alliances
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Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 29/01/2026
🧵 NEW: Our report 'Listen and learn' sets out how the Government should improve Universal Credit (UC) for the 15 million people who rely on it. 13 years after its roll-out began, it’s time to get UC right. We've co-produced recommendations with @changingrealities.bsky.social participants 👇
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Evelyne Hübscher @evehubscher.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
Very happy that our review article (with the @annualreviews.bsky.social) on „Austerity and Populism“ is now available as preprint: www.annualreviews.org/content/jour... - with @sattlersthomas.bsky.social
annualreviews.org
Austerity and Populism
A large literature explains the rise of populist parties with the economic insecurities stemming from globalization and technological change. But despite the long-standing focus of the comparative and...
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Mark A. Hanson @hansonmark.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
We've got ISSUES. Literally. We scraped >100k special issues & over 1 million articles to bring you a PISS-poor paper. We quantify just how many excess papers are published by guest editors abusing special issues to boost their CVs. How bad is it & what can we do? arxiv.org/abs/2601.07563 A 🧵 1/n
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Amílcar Moreira @amilcarmoreira.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
This is a brief reminder that the Call for Streams for the 24th ESPAnet Annual Conference is now open. The deadline for submissions is the 16th of January 2026. More information at: www.iseg.ulisboa.pt/event/24th-e...
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Anna Stansbury @annastansbury.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
In our research on socioeconomic background in academia, we ran a survey. Over 2,000 faculty members responded (thanks if you were one!) Social & cultural capital showed up time and again as key issues. A few findings you might be interested in...🧵
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Saloni @scientificdiscovery.dev · 09/12/2025
Big new blogpost! My guide to data visualization, which includes a very long table of contents, tons of charts, and more. --> Why data visualization matters and how to make charts more effective, clear, transparent, and sometimes, beautiful. www.scientificdiscovery.dev/p/salonis-gu...
screenshot of my post
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Lauren Leek @laurenleek.eu · 09/12/2025
I wanted dinner recommendations so I scraped 13,000+ London restaurants and accidentally discovered Google Maps is running a shadow economy. Anyway here's a dashboard and a political economy thesis: open.substack.com/pub/laurenle...
open.substack.com
How Google Maps quietly allocates survival across London’s restaurants - and how I built a dashboard to see through it
I wanted a dinner recommendation and got a research agenda instead. Using 13000+ restaurants, I rebuild its ratings with machine learning and map how algorithmic visibility actually distributes power.
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The Quarterly Journal of Economics @qjeharvard.bsky.social · 23/11/2025
Recently accepted by #QJE, “Republican Support and Economic Hardship: The Enduring Effects of the Opioid Epidemic,” by Arteaga (@caroartc.bsky.social) and Barone (@vickybarone.bsky.social): doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
doi.org
Republican Support and Economic Hardship: The Enduring Effects Of the Opioid Epidemic
Abstract. In this paper, we establish a causal connection between two of the most salient social developments in the United States over the past decades: t
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Mark A. Hanson @hansonmark.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
We wrote the Strain on scientific publishing to highlight the problems of time & trust. With a fantastic group of co-authors, we present The Drain of Scientific Publishing: a 🧵 1/n Drain: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820 Strain: direct.mit.edu/qss/article/... Oligopoly: direct.mit.edu/qss/article/...
A table showing profit margins of major publishers. A snippet of text related to this table is below.

1. The four-fold drain
1.1 Money
Currently, academic publishing is dominated by profit-oriented, multinational companies for
whom scientific knowledge is a commodity to be sold back to the academic community who
created it. The dominant four are Elsevier, Springer Nature, Wiley and Taylor & Francis,
which collectively generated over US$7.1 billion in revenue from journal publishing in 2024
alone, and over US$12 billion in profits between 2019 and 2024 (Table 1A). Their profit
margins have always been over 30% in the last five years, and for the largest publisher
(Elsevier) always over 37%.
Against many comparators, across many sectors, scientific publishing is one of the most
consistently profitable industries (Table S1). These financial arrangements make a substantial
difference to science budgets. In 2024, 46% of Elsevier revenues and 53% of Taylor &
Francis revenues were generated in North America, meaning that North American
researchers were charged over US$2.27 billion by just two for-profit publishers. The
Canadian research councils and the US National Science Foundation were allocated US$9.3
billion in that year.A figure detailing the drain on researcher time.

1. The four-fold drain

1.2 Time
The number of papers published each year is growing faster than the scientific workforce,
with the number of papers per researcher almost doubling between 1996 and 2022 (Figure
1A). This reflects the fact that publishers’ commercial desire to publish (sell) more material
has aligned well with the competitive prestige culture in which publications help secure jobs,
grants, promotions, and awards. To the extent that this growth is driven by a pressure for
profit, rather than scholarly imperatives, it distorts the way researchers spend their time.
The publishing system depends on unpaid reviewer labour, estimated to be over 130 million
unpaid hours annually in 2020 alone (9). Researchers have complained about the demands of
peer-review for decades, but the scale of the problem is now worse, with editors reporting
widespread difficulties recruiting reviewers. The growth in publications involves not only the
authors’ time, but that of academic editors and reviewers who are dealing with so many
review demands.
Even more seriously, the imperative to produce ever more articles reshapes the nature of
scientific inquiry. Evidence across multiple fields shows that more papers result in
‘ossification’, not new ideas (10). It may seem paradoxical that more papers can slow
progress until one considers how it affects researchers’ time. While rewards remain tied to
volume, prestige, and impact of publications, researchers will be nudged away from riskier,
local, interdisciplinary, and long-term work. The result is a treadmill of constant activity with
limited progress whereas core scholarly practices – such as reading, reflecting and engaging
with others’ contributions – is de-prioritized. What looks like productivity often masks
intellectual exhaustion built on a demoralizing, narrowing scientific vision.A table of profit margins across industries. The section of text related to this table is below:

1. The four-fold drain
1.1 Money
Currently, academic publishing is dominated by profit-oriented, multinational companies for
whom scientific knowledge is a commodity to be sold back to the academic community who
created it. The dominant four are Elsevier, Springer Nature, Wiley and Taylor & Francis,
which collectively generated over US$7.1 billion in revenue from journal publishing in 2024
alone, and over US$12 billion in profits between 2019 and 2024 (Table 1A). Their profit
margins have always been over 30% in the last five years, and for the largest publisher
(Elsevier) always over 37%.
Against many comparators, across many sectors, scientific publishing is one of the most
consistently profitable industries (Table S1). These financial arrangements make a substantial
difference to science budgets. In 2024, 46% of Elsevier revenues and 53% of Taylor &
Francis revenues were generated in North America, meaning that North American
researchers were charged over US$2.27 billion by just two for-profit publishers. The
Canadian research councils and the US National Science Foundation were allocated US$9.3
billion in that year.The costs of inaction are plain: wasted public funds, lost researcher time, compromised
scientific integrity and eroded public trust. Today, the system rewards commercial publishers
first, and science second. Without bold action from the funders we risk continuing to pour
resources into a system that prioritizes profit over the advancement of scientific knowledge.
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Gabriele Mari @gmari.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
Echoing this: Child poverty shouldn't be reduced to an accounting exercise. But when it is, we should at the very least factor in the costs of keeping children in poverty, costs affecting the public budget of tomorrow. www.transformingsociety.co.uk/2025/10/06/t...
transformingsociety.co.uk
The child poverty strategy needs to get its figures straight - Transforming Society
Gabriele Mari highlights how child poverty in the UK is rising, driven by restrictive benefits policies, despite strong evidence that adequate support can reduce poverty and improve wellbeing.
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Prof Ruth Patrick @ruthpatrick0.bsky.social · 01/11/2025
I can’t envisage a child poverty strategy which garners any credibility without fully scrapping the two-child limit. Unconvinced? Check out (even better share) this summary of the peer-reviewed evidence base @kittyjstewart.bsky.social @aaronreeves.bsky.social largerfamilies.study/publications...
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Emily M. Bender @emilymbender.bsky.social · 31/10/2025
Really appreciate this review of our book (w/ @alexhanna.bsky.social) "By insisting on the term “automation,” Bender and Hanna reveal that what’s sold as innovation is often just labor displacement with better branding." "…a demystifying, often hilarious lexicon that cuts through the fog of hype."
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Martha Lincoln @heavyredaction.bsky.social · 25/10/2025
New preprint alert! 🚨 “Let Them Eat Large Language Models: Artificial Intelligence and Austerity in the Neoliberal University”
Let Them Eat Large Language Models: Artificial Intelligence and Austerity in the Neoliberal University

Martha Kenney and Martha Lincoln

Abstract
This article examines the expansion of generative artificial intelligence (genAI) into higher education. We argue that genAI’s incursion into university systems represents an effort by Silicon Valley to capture lucrative new markets for their products, as well as enhanced credibility by association. Drawing on our experience as faculty in the California State University (CSU) system—the first university system to contract with OpenAI to provide ChatGPT Edu system-wide—we assess the rhetoric that justifies and legitimizes genAI contracts in higher education. We suggest that the uncritical adoption of genAI in higher education poses problems for labor conditions, the integrity of intellectual property, and student learning on campuses, particularly under the conditions of austerity that are commonly found in public universities.
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apache/ @apache.be · 24/10/2025
Belgian AI scientists are advocating *against* the use of AI in academia. “If independent thinking is no longer encouraged at university, where would it?” apache.be/2025/10/24/b...
apache.be
Belgian AI scientists resist the use of AI in academia
Several AI scientists have published an open letter calling for a ban on AI use by students.
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James Medlock @jdcmedlock.bsky.social · 26/10/2025
www.peoplespolicyproject.org/2025/10/26/d...
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Pat Hastings @ophastings.bsky.social · 10/10/2025
The GSS asked the same people about their childhood income rank three different times. 56% changed their answer, even though what was trying to be measured couldn’t change! We dig into this in a new article at @socialindicators.bsky.social. 

 doi.org/10.1007/s112... 🧵👇 (1/5)
doi.org
Growing up Different(ly than Last Time We Asked): Social Status and Changing Reports of Childhood Income Rank - Social Indicators Research
How we remember our past can be shaped by the realities of our present. This study examines how changes to present circumstances influence retrospective reports of family income rank at age 16. While retrospective survey data can be used to assess the long-term effects of childhood conditions, present-day circumstances may “anchor” memories, causing shifts in how individuals recall and report past experiences. Using panel data from the 2006–2014 General Social Surveys (8,602 observations from 2,883 individuals in the United States), we analyze how changes in objective and subjective indicators of current social status—income, financial satisfaction, and perceived income relative to others—are associated with changes in reports of childhood income rank, and how this varies by sex and race/ethnicity. Fixed-effects models reveal no significant association between changes in income and in childhood income rank. However, changes in subjective measures of social status show contrasting effects, as increases in current financial satisfaction are associated with decreases in childhood income rank, but increases in current perceived relative income are associated with increases in childhood income rank. We argue these opposing effects follow from theories of anchoring in recall bias. We further find these effects are stronger among males but are consistent across racial/ethnic groups. This demographic heterogeneity suggests that recall bias is not evenly distributed across the population and has important implications for how different groups perceive their own pasts. Our findings further highlight the malleability of retrospective perceptions and their sensitivity to current social conditions, offering methodological insights into survey reliability and recall bias.
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 23/09/2025
Currently attending a conference & our field is quite a bit into fancy modeling, so it’s time to repost this blog post. Don’t try to squeeze your research question into whatever model is fashionable right now; try to build the right model for your research question. www.the100.ci/2024/08/27/l...
the100.ci
Let’s do statistics the other way around
Summer in Berlin – the perfect time and place to explore the city, take a walk in the Görli, go skinny dipping in the Spree, attend an overcrowded, overheated conference symposium on cross-lagged pane...
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Meredith Whittaker @meredithmeredith.bsky.social · 09/09/2025
📣 NEW -- In The Economist, discussing the privacy perils of AI agents and what AI companies and operating systems need to do--NOW--to protect Signal and much else! www.economist.com/by-invitatio...
An illustration of me, and the headline: "AI agents are coming for your privacy, warns Meredith Whittaker
The Signal Foundation’s president worries they will also blunt competition and undermine cyber-security"To put it bluntly, the path currently being taken towards agentic AI leads to an elimination of privacy and security at the application layer. It will not be possible for apps like Signal—the messaging app whose foundation I run—to continue to provide strong privacy guarantees, built on robust and openly validated encryption, if device-makers and OS developers insist on puncturing the metaphoric blood-brain barrier between apps and the OS. Feeding your sensitive Signal messages into an undifferentiated data slurry connected to cloud servers in service of their AI-agent aspirations is a dangerous abdication of responsibility.Happily, it’s not too late. There is much that can still be done, particularly when it comes to protecting the sanctity of private data. What’s needed is a fundamental shift in how we approach the development and deployment of AI agents. First, privacy must be the default, and control must remain in the hands of application developers exercising agency on behalf of their users. Developers need the ability to designate applications as “sensitive” and mark them as off-limits to agents, at the OS level and otherwise. This cannot be a convoluted workaround buried in settings; it must be a straightforward, well-documented mechanism (similar to Global Privacy Control) that blocks an agent from accessing our data or taking actions within an app.

Second, radical transparency must be the norm. Vague assurances and marketing-speak are no longer acceptable. OS vendors have an obligation to be clear and precise about their architecture and what data their AI agents are accessing, how it is being used and the measures in place to protect it.
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Reposted by Gabriele Mari
Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 21/08/2025
It's like an association, but more causal. This reasoning is very prevalent in psych as well (in particular when it comes to "lagged effects", aka lagged associations, and "within-person associations") which is why we wrote a paper about it: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
These Are Not the Effects You Are Looking for: Causality and the Within-/Between-Persons Distinction in Longitudinal Data Analysis

In psychological science, researchers often pay particular attention to the distinction between within- and between-persons relationships in longitudinal data analysis. Here, we aim to clarify the relationship between the within- and between-persons distinction and causal inference and show that the distinction is informative but does not play a decisive role in causal inference. Our main points are threefold. First, within-persons data are not necessary for causal inference; for example, between-persons experiments can inform about (average) causal effects. Second, within-persons data are not sufficient for causal inference; for example, time-varying confounders can lead to spurious within-persons associations. Finally, despite not being sufficient, within-persons data can be tremendously helpful for causal inference. We provide pointers to help readers navigate the more technical literature on longitudinal models and conclude with a call for more conceptual clarity: Instead of letting statistical models dictate which substantive questions researchers ask, researchers should start with well-defined theoretical estimands, which in turn determine both study design and data analysis.
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Gabriele Mari @gmari.bsky.social · 26/07/2025
www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v4...
lrb.co.uk
Katrina Forrester · ‘I appreciate depreciation’: Dynastic Capitalism
Austerity is a choice. The protection of the family at the expense of other ways of living is a choice. The transfer of...
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