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Elizabeth Mitchell Elder

@elizabethelder.bsky.social
1.2K followers 613 following 42 posts

Political scientist studying behavior, knowledge, & attitudes towards government. Currently @ Hoover Institution, formerly @ UC Berkeley.

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Reposted by Elizabeth Mitchell Elder
Amanda Weiss @amandaweiss.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
🚨 New Working Paper! 🚨 Do voters *like* local prisons? Are prisons that good for the economy? After years of data collection (+ using a novel estimator?!), @nottone & I find new prisons: • Reduce Republican incumbent vote shares 1-3pp • Decrease per cap. incomes >$2,500 osf.io/dnwke 🧵👇
Abstract for the paper "The Electoral Effects of U.S. Prison Construction" by Ottone & Weiss: From 1980 to 2000, the United States opened over 400 prisons, a rapid expansion of carceral capacity mirroring the punitive turn in public policy and public opinion. Yet few studies have examined the impact of prison construction on nearby residents and their political behavior. We develop a theoretical model tracing how prison openings affect economic, attitudinal, and electoral outcomes in surrounding communities. Us- ing modern difference-in-difference methods and a novel county-level dataset covering forty years of prison openings, we find that prison construction decreases county-level vote share for Republican candidates, especially if Republicans represented the county during prison construction. Drawing on analyses of economic outcomes and prison bond measure support, we argue that voters sanction issue-owning Republican candi- dates for negative economic externalities and turn against funding for prisons. These findings challenge conventional wisdom about the political economy of prisons and have implications for how we understand contemporary expansions of carceral capacity.
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Elizabeth Mitchell Elder @elizabethelder.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Closing out APSA with an Author Meets Critics on Chris Karpowitz and Kelly Patterson’s fascinating new book, the Politics of Individualism. Join us! Or, failing that, pick up the book.
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Reposted by Elizabeth Mitchell Elder
Elizabeth Mitchell Elder @elizabethelder.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
An Author Meets Critics for Company Towns will take place Saturday at 2pm in Marriott/Yarmouth! Four scholars I respect immensely have been generous enough to engage with the book. If you're interested in joining the critics, please stop by.
Screenshot of an APSA conference program listing. Session: "Author Meets Critics: 'Company Towns' by Elizabeth Mitchell Elder," Saturday September 5, 2:00–3:30pm EDT / 11:00am–12:30pm PDT. Author meet critics session, Division 61: American Political Economy. Chair: Sarah F. Anzia, University of California-Berkeley. Presenters: Stephanie Lynn Ternullo, Harvard; Marc J. Hetherington, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill; Elizabeth Mitchell Elder, Stanford University; Nicholas F. Jacobs, Colby College. Contact details and venue have been redacted.
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Elizabeth Mitchell Elder @elizabethelder.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
A confession: I enjoy going to APSA panels. I love hearing what people are working on before it's perfectly polished, and I always get new ideas from projects I wouldn't ordinarily come across. In case you happen to share this rare opinion, here's a thread of some panels that caught my eye:
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Elizabeth Mitchell Elder @elizabethelder.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Out now in Nature: Human Behavior: @obrian.bsky.social and I find that since about 2016, conservatives have become less healthy than liberals on a range of medical indicators. Since 2020, conservatives have died at higher rates, including of non-COVID-related causes. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
The political polarization of health outcomes in the USA - Nature Human Behaviour
Using individual-level medical data and death records, this study finds that conservatives in the USA experienced worse health and higher mortality than liberals during the 2010s. No significant gaps ...
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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Love this explanation of where we’re at with synthetic control from @yiqingxu.bsky.social yiqingxu.substack.com/p/what-is-sy...
yiqingxu.substack.com
What is synthetic control?
What the literature has converged to in the past 20 years.
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Elizabeth Mitchell Elder @elizabethelder.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
Had a lovely conversation about my book with Miranda Melcher of @newbooksnetwork.bsky.social! Take a listen for a preview of the book’s arguments about company power, state capacity, and public alienation in mining towns: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/n...
podcasts.apple.com
Elizabeth Mitchell Elder,
Podcast Episode · New Books with Miranda Melcher · March 22 · 32m
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Elizabeth Mitchell Elder @elizabethelder.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
The specter of AI has made me a much happier reader of reviewer reports. Every typo, weird punctuation choice, and grammatical error is a heartwarming signal that a real, imperfect person used their human mind to evaluate the work of their peers.
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Elizabeth Mitchell Elder @elizabethelder.bsky.social · 26/01/2026
Here’s a blog post version of my recent paper in BJPS on coal dominance and local government capacity. Thanks, USAPP, for the opportunity to share a more accessible version of this work!
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Reposted by Elizabeth Mitchell Elder
Chris Warshaw @chriswarshaw.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
We're excited to release version 1.0 of the Dynamic Democracy website. It includes updated data on state policy, public opinion, mass ideology, and representation. The website enables you to see how these measures are changing overtime across states and within states. www.dynamicdemocracy.us
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Elizabeth Mitchell Elder @elizabethelder.bsky.social · 05/12/2025
Out today! I argue companies that dominate local economies can durably shape the capacity of local governments. Read on if you’re interested in business power, local political economy, or (for some reason) how coal companies were (not) taxed by early 20th century local governments.
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Brian Highsmith @bhighsmith.bsky.social · 24/11/2025
🚨We analyzed 138 million geocoded property tax records to quantify how municipal boundaries spatially overlap onto economic segregation in every US metro area—creating disparities in localities’ ability to fund public goods. And we made an interactive map of our results! [1/16]
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Elizabeth Mitchell Elder @elizabethelder.bsky.social · 29/09/2025
What a comparison! By the way, with coal in the news this morning...if you're interested in learning more about how the 20th century coal industry's dominance of local governance hollowed out mining areas' faith in institutions, I have a book you can pre-order!
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Elizabeth Mitchell Elder @elizabethelder.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
Excited to see this out! @hanslueders.bsky.social & I develop a concept & measure of place attachment, distinct from place identity. We show local attachments are similarly strong in urban & rural places, and they predict engagement in local (vs. national) politics. link.springer.com/10.1007/s111...
link.springer.com
Place Attachments: Theory and Measurement for Political Science - Political Behavior
Scholars increasingly ask how place shapes citizens’ attitudes and behavior. Despite growing interest in place-based politics, recent work engages with only a subset of the potential roles for place i...
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American Political Science Review @apsrjournal.bsky.social · 27/05/2025
📢 The APSR is opening a new Research Notes track! Authors may now submit directly as Notes—or, with editor agreement, have papers reclassified during review. Notes should be ≤7,000 words (excl. refs/appendices).
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Daniel de Kadt @dandekadt.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
🚨 “Good Description” with @annagbusse.bsky.social 🚨 What sets 'good' description apart from 'mere' description? We develop a framework for evaluating descriptive research, whether we are doing it as scholars or assessing it as readers. Two main contributions... 🔗📄 tinyurl.com/gooddesc
tinyurl.com
good_description/good_description_ddk_agb.pdf at main · ddekadt/good_description
Homepage of "Good Description" by Daniel de Kadt & Anna Grzymala-Busse - ddekadt/good_description
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Nick Valentino @nickvalentino.bsky.social · 01/05/2025
We are extremely pleased to announce the preliminary release of the combined pre-election and post-election dataset for the ANES 2024 Time Series Study! The data and documentation can be downloaded from the ANES website at: electionstudies.org/data-center/... Best, The ANES Team
electionstudies.org
2024 Time Series Study - ANES | American National Election Studies
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Chris Goodman @cbgoodman.co · 18/04/2025
I'm excited to present this today at UAA. If you're in Vancouver, it's at 9:50am at Pavillion B.
slides.cgoodman.com
Demand Shocks & Special Districts: Evidence from Chinese Import Shocks – Christopher B. Goodman
One of the primary theoretical benefits of specialized governance is rapid response to changes in demand for public services. If demand increases quickly, special districts can be quickly formed to re...
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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 28/03/2025
Overlapping CI's do not tell you if 2 estimates are significantly different from one another. These packages in R and Stata can help with this common visualization problem. Fan-freaking-tastic.
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Mia Costa @miacosta.bsky.social · 27/03/2025
My book is now officially out! How Politicians Polarize introduces and documents the concept of "negative representation" – when representatives focus on the other side rather than their own. Some key findings: 🧵 www.amazon.com/How-Politici...
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Ross Dahlke @rossdahlke.bsky.social · 25/03/2025
Despite trust in personal doctors becoming a partisan issue, experimental evidence suggests that sharing a political background with one's medical provider increases willingness to seek care, finds @obrian.bsky.social & Bradley Kent in @bjpols.bsky.social doi.org/10.1017/S000...
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Partisanship and Trust in Personal Doctors: Causes and Consequences

Abstract
In the first decades of the twentieth century, the gap in age-adjusted mortality rates between people living in Republican and Democratic counties expanded; people in Democratic counties started living longer. This paper argues that political partisanship poses a direct problem for ameliorating these trends: trust and adherence in one’s personal doctor (including on non-COVID-19 related care) – once a non-partisan issue – now divides Democrats (more trustful) and Republicans (less trustful). We argue that this divide is largely a consequence of partisan conflict surrounding COVID-19 that spilled over and created a partisan cleavage in people’s trust in their own personal doctor. We then present experimental evidence that sharing a political background with your medical provider increases willingness to seek care. The doctor-patient relationship is essential for combating some of society’s most pressing probleFigure 1.  Line graph with three panels showing trends in attitudes toward Education, Medicine, and the Scientific Community from 1988 to 2020. Each panel displays two lines: one for Democrats (light blue) and one for Republicans (red), with vertical error bars. Y-axis values range from 1.75 to 2.5. In all panels, Republican ratings decline more steeply over time, especially after 2010. Democrat ratings remain relatively stable or increase slightly, particularly in the Scientific Community panel after 2010.Figure 2. Dot-and-whisker plot showing treatment effects (Treatment – Control) on three outcomes: “Trust Own Doctor,” “Adhere Doc Advice,” and “Conf. in Medicine.” Three groups are plotted: Vote Biden (light blue), Vote Trump (red), and Biden–Trump difference (gray). The y-axis ranges from -0.5 to 1.0. For “Trust Own Doctor” and “Conf. in Medicine,” the Biden group shows positive treatment effects, while the Trump group shows negative effects. The Biden–Trump difference is positive for all outcomes, with error bars indicating uncertainty. A horizontal dashed line at 0.0 marks no treatment effect.
Image description
Figure 3. Dot-and-whisker plot with four panels showing Average Marginal Component Effects (AMCE) for Democratic (light blue) and Republican (red) respondents across different attributes: Male, Ivy League, Far Away, Democrat, High Rating, Medium Rating, Black, and Hispanic. Panels display results for All Respondents, Female Respondents, Black Respondents, and Latinx Respondents. The x-axis ranges from -0.25 to 0.50 with a vertical dashed line at 0.0 indicating no effect. Each dot represents the AMCE estimate with horizontal error bars indicating uncertainty. Some estimates differ by respondent group, and not all attributes have data points for both political affiliations in all panels.
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Reposted by Elizabeth Mitchell Elder
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
🚨 New paper (with Kasey Rhee & Nico Studen). We use a new within-precinct design to isolate how ideology affects vote choice holding turnout fixed, analyzing 3.4M precinct observations across state & fed elections (2016-2022). tldr: Ideological moderation affects vote shares, but not by much. 🧵⬇️
papers.ssrn.com
The Electoral Consequences of Ideological Persuasion: Evidence from a Within-Precinct Analysis of U.S. Elections
Most research on the electoral penalty of candidate ideology relies on betweendistrict or longitudinal comparisons, which are confounded by turnout and ballot c
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stephanieternullo.bsky.social @stephanieternullo.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
In case anyone needs a break from reality (me, by 9 a.m. every day), my coauthor Anna Berg and I have a new, open access essay out in Perspectives! buff.ly/4gN6cFR. We describe the marginalization of qual methods in the study of American political behavior and make a case for their revival.
buff.ly
Toward a Qualitative Study of the American Voter | Perspectives on Politics | Cambridge Core
Toward a Qualitative Study of the American Voter
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Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
When Queen Victoria’s mourning disrupted the "London Season" (elite marriage market), peer-commoner intermarriage rose by 40%, marital wealth sorting fell by 30%, and peers' political power declined as a result. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
aeaweb.org
Assortative Matching at the Top of the Distribution: Evidence from the World's Most Exclusive Marriage Market
(July 2022) - Using novel data on peerage marriages in Britain, I find that low search costs and marriage-market segregation can generate sorting. Peers courted in the London Season, a matching techno...
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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
New in POQ from Stephen Jessee, Neil Malhotra and @mayasen.bsky.social, new empirical research on why you should write shorter survey questions academic.oup.com/poq/advance-...
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Elizabeth Mitchell Elder @elizabethelder.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
Just looked through this checklist for a survey experiment I'm working on this morning!
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 21/01/2025
being bused to an inner-city school significantly increases White support for the Democratic Party and its candidates more than forty years later www.nber.org/papers/w33365
nber.org
A Different World: Enduring Effects of School Desegregation on Ideology and Attitudes
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
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Institute for Replication @i4replication.bsky.social · 20/01/2025
We have a new report out. Do Won Kim, Xilin Yang and Do-Hoon Kim reproduce "The Effects of Racial Diversity in Citizen Decision-Making Bodies" by Karpowitz et al. @thejop.bsky.social. Link to the report and author's response below.
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Elizabeth Mitchell Elder @elizabethelder.bsky.social · 15/01/2025
Excited to see this out! We study several hundred mock jury deliberations and find that white deliberators speak more, raise their own preferences more, and step in at more pivotal times in the discussion than deliberators of color. Inequalities persist even in more diverse groups.
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Ben Noble @benjaminsnoble.bsky.social · 02/01/2025
🚨 New year, new working paper 🚨 "In Control but Incoherent: Institutional Power, Electoral Politics, and Message Discipline in Congress" with Gechun Lin (WUSTL). Available here: benjaminnoble.org/files/papers... Read on for the 🧵 version…
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Ross Dahlke @rossdahlke.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
Very happy to say that I passed my PhD dissertation defense, "The Public Sphere in Private Spaces: Politics, News, and Misinformation in Personal Messaging Applications." Grateful for my advisor, committee, and everyone at Stanford
The Public Sphere in Private Spaces: Politics, News, and Misinformation in Personal Messaging ApplicationsData & ProcedureCommittee group pictureAbstract
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Catherine E. de Vries @catherinedevries.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
New paper published @ajpseditor.bsky.social Showing that reduced access to public services fuelled far right support in 🇮🇹 Existing work on far right highlights globalization & migration grievances, what about people’s experiences with the state? We use 🇮🇹 reform to find out shorturl.at/zQ8bJ
https://shorturl.at/zQ8bJ
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David Broockman @dbroockman.bsky.social · 02/12/2024
🚨 NEW PAPER: When low-income Americans get $1,000/month for 3 years, what happens to their political views & behavior? The OpenResearch Unconditional income Study reveals surprising findings about the effects of income on politics... 🧵
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
After a review process so long and intensive that the title changed twice, I'm excited/relieved that "How to Distinguish Motivated Reasoning from Bayesian Updating" is accepted at @polbehavior.bsky.social. osf.io/preprints/os... Here is how it's relevant for your Thanksgiving dinner 🦃👇
osf.io
OSF
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Volha Charnysh @vcharnysh.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
Thrilled to announce the release of Uprooted: How Post-WWII Population Transfers Remade Europe with Cambridge UP 🎉🎉 The book argues that accommodating the displaced population can strengthen states and benefit local economies in the long run. 📚 [Amazon: tinyurl.com/24m2mbkf] See thread below:
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
What attributes of a government lead citizens to view it as trustworthy? Our article - led by @danjdevine.bsky.social - is out in EJPR today... Competence, benevolence and integrity all matter - but perceived benevolence matters most. ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
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Phil Rocco @philiprocco.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
For the next few years I’ll be documenting efforts to protect official statistics, including and especially population statistics, from political threats. For more on how this happened between 2016 and 2020, see my forthcoming book: kansaspress.ku.edu/978070063875...
kansaspress.ku.edu
Counting Like a State
An inside look at the 2020 Census that shows the importance of state and local cooperation in the complex federal project of census taking.The census plays a...
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Yamil Ricardo Velez @yamilrvelez.bsky.social · 15/11/2024
🚨 How should we design surveys to capture opinion in fast-changing contexts like elections or within hard-to-reach communities? 🚨 My paper, conditionally accepted at Political Analysis, develops a method that leverages LLMs and adaptive algorithms to construct surveys that evolve with user input.
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Joshua P. Darr @joshuadarr.bsky.social · 14/11/2024
Our new book, Storefront Campaigning, is out *today* and FREE to download until 12/12! doi.org/10.1017/9781... Using original data on field office locations, Sean Whyard and I show where offices are placed - and why they matter in presidential campaigns. (1/x)
doi.org
Storefront Campaigning
Cambridge Core - American Government, Politics and Policy - Storefront Campaigning
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Adam Sheingate @adamsheingate.bsky.social · 04/11/2024
I'm excited to share a new tool to explore FEC spending data. Working with a team of research assistants, we cleaned, coded, and classified millions of expenditure records. You can access it here: election-spending-data.shinyapps.io/dashboard/
election-spending-data.shinyapps.io
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Journal of Public Policy @jpublicpolicy.bsky.social · 22/10/2024
A new interesting article by @hankinson.bsky.social and @jdbk.bsky.social is now available on our FirstView page. It is entitled “How self-interest and symbolic politics shape the effectiveness of compensation for nearby housing development”. Enjoy it here: t.ly/-0IQO
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Rachel Porter @rachelporter.bsky.social · 16/09/2024
Excited to share new work with my coauthor, Colin Case! We produce issue-specific estimates for the left-right policy positions of congressional candidates Parts of this project are now under contract w/ CUP's Elements in Quant Methods 🥳 --- feedback welcome!! osf.io/preprints/os...
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Elizabeth Mitchell Elder @elizabethelder.bsky.social · 23/08/2024
Making your APSA schedule? Have a free slot Sunday morning? Stop by our panel on Political Economy and Local Democracy to see this great set of papers! (I'm hearing Beyoncé is unfortunately unlikely to attend)
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Neil O'Brian @obrian.bsky.social · 20/08/2024
"Roots of Polarization" has a 9/25 release date! In the mean time, plan on coming to the author-meets-critics panel at APSA (Thurs @ 8am). Really great panel: @cwolbrecht.bsky.social, @chriswarshaw.bsky.social and Vince Hutchings discussing, & chaired by Eric Schickler. #polisky tinyurl.com/ycypu4nm
tinyurl.com
The Roots of Polarization
A deeply researched account of how battles over civil rights in the 1960s shaped today’s partisan culture wars. In the late twentieth century, gay rights, immigration, gun control, and abortion debate...
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Alex Garlick @garlicksauce.bsky.social · 15/08/2024
Does policy capacity (ie staff) affect the influence of lobbyists? The Modernization of Committee suggested it does, but it's a hard question to evaluate (legislators usually control their staff levels). In a new paper to come at LSQ, we use a 1990 CA case to show staff limit lobbyist influence
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British Journal of Political Science @bjpols.bsky.social · 09/08/2024
#OpenAccess from our latest issue - Personal Economic Shocks and Public Opposition to Unauthorized Immigration - cup.org/3zObMYX - Daniel J. Hopkins, Yotam Margalit & Omer Solodoch
British Journal of Political Science Hopkins, Margalit & Solodoch abstract graphic
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Adam Berinsky @adamberinsky.bsky.social · 28/03/2024
Interested in measuring Attentiveness in Self-Administered Surveys? Check out our new review piece published today in Public Opinion Quarterly: doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
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Elizabeth Mitchell Elder @elizabethelder.bsky.social · 27/03/2024
Just a few more days to make nominations--deadline is April 1st!
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