Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 13hTwo tricky things here. 1 it’s very hard to tell the difference between someone inputting their own notes to an LLM and “one shot” asking for a review based on a paper upload. 2 one shotting will topically produce a mediocre but not terrible review on content. 120
Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Studying bias with math (stats, formal, etc) is good at forcing you to always think “biased with respect to/compared to what”? 050
Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 12/08/2026All of the serious evidence shows that prediction markets are in fact predictive and human experts are the ones who are bad at prediction. (More work on this soon 😉) 151
Reposted by Andrew LittleBrad LeVeck @bradleveck.bsky.social · 30/05/2026If you're UC faculty, I'd encourage you to sign this letter in support of the University of California reinstating the SAT in admissions. ucstudentsuccess.orgucstudentsuccess.orgUCStudentSuccess 1135
Reposted by Andrew LittleThomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 27/05/2026Thrilled to share that my book, No Option But Sabotage, was reviewed in @prospectmagazine.co.uk Roberts engages with my book and highlights the dilemma facing eco activists in a world of rising climate pressures and policy failures. www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/culture/7363...prospectmagazine.co.ukThe great schism in eco-activismSome want the movement to have broader appeal. Others want a return to the violence of the past. Will one side win out? 193
Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 01/05/2026Seems like the natural next step in the gerrymandering wars is targeting specific members of congress and breaking up their district. Why shouldn’t NY target Stefanik? 140
Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 01/05/2026Parallel updating (plus floor effects) undefeated 2156
Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 28/04/2026Getting a PhD is a weird career choice if you aren‘t a curious person, and most curios peoples’ interests don’t lie nearly within a subfield of one discipline. (Not a knock on Paul’s answer I just find it odd that people ask this question.) 071
Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 18/04/2026Dunno what’s more surprising this or conservatives getting shrooms 060
Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 17/04/2026Great to see some fun coverage of @carleton.edu, but "BREAKING" may be a somewhat exaggerated way to describe a house where students have been making cookies for 40+ years. 020
Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 14/04/2026Judging by the (non)response to this, I should admit I was wrong. The democratic pessimists would not have said Orban losing would be evidence against their position. Rather, there is nothing that they would admit is evidence against their position 🤷♂️ 000
Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 13/04/2026Something I would like to hear from people who are confident the world is getting less democratic is what evidence or events would lead you to revise that belief? Part of what I'm getting at here is I'd bet a common answer a few years ago would have been "Orban losing" bsky.app/profile/anth... 2101
Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 13/04/2026Don’t totally disagree with this, but peacefully conceding defeat is important! And many figures similar to Orban did not do this. Unclear how much of this is a difference in authoritarian goals vs just losing by so much that trying to fight it was futile. 050
Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 12/04/2026One case is one case but it is remarkable how we just saw another wave of reports about the dire state of global democracy, and the poster child of this purported decline just lost a competitive election. 1433
Reposted by Andrew LittleAnna Grzymala-Busse @annagbusse.bsky.social · 12/04/2026Reuters says Tisza has at least 135 seats: 133 is the constitutional supermajority! Live by highly disproportional electoral systems (which Orbán made even more disproportional with the extra compensation votes awarded to winners), die by highly disproportional electoral systems. 617741
Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 12/04/2026Looks like we have entered the AI-generated email audit experiment era 270
Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 04/04/2026It's almost like there is a trade-off between loyalty and competence 🤔 720228
Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 03/04/2026Great articulation of my main worry about AI use among researchers (including myself!) Among current students, a hugely beneficial trait will be the ability to force oneself to sometimes do hard stuff on their own to really understand it even when AI is faster. ergosphere.blog/posts/the-ma...ergosphere.blogThe machines are fine. I'm worried about us.On AI agents, grunt work, and the part of science that isn't replaceable. 14210
Reposted by Andrew LittleOmar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 02/04/2026Excited to share new paper w/ @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social: "Veiled Power: How Rosenwald Teachers Quietly Shaped the Civil Rights Movement" The puzzle: did ~5,000 segregated schools built in rural South emphasizing “manual labor” strengthen or weaken Jim Crow? 🧵 omarwasow.com/wasow_grumba... 7375132
Reposted by Andrew LittleAmerican Political Science Review @apsrjournal.bsky.social · 31/03/2026From our FirstView articles: A Precolonial Paradox? Rethinking Political Centralization and Its Legacies by MARTHA WILFAHRT. doi.org/10.1017/S000... 0196
Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 24/03/2026At least we know that the war does have a concrete and achievable goal (creating insider trading opportunities) 092
Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 23/03/2026Trump admin violating domestic law, international law, and now the law of total variance 082
Reposted by Andrew LittleYamil Ricardo Velez @yamilrvelez.bsky.social · 19/03/2026New paper with Stephanie Zonszein! Political news is more important than ever, but local papers are shuttering across the US. In recent years, innovative community-centered outlets led by journalists have taken to WhatsApp and social media to reach groups such as immigrants. What are their effects? 12412
Reposted by Andrew LittleDavid Rand @dgrand.bsky.social · 14/03/2026DebunkBot is live on BlueSky! Tag @debunkbot.bsky.social in reply to any post to get the facts 84316
Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 16/03/2026Very nice paper, to be more spicy I would say it shows how both sides of the "is moderation good" debate misread the implications of spatial models of political competition (or, if you must, the "median voter theorem") 174
Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 14/03/2026Agreed. “Let’s one shot a mediocre paper in 15 minutes” is a fun parlor trick but the more exciting thing is the ability to produce higher quality research faster by treating AI like a hyper efficient (if not particularly creative and sometimes mistake-prone) collaborator. 2389
Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 27/02/2026Sort of an obvious point but one drawback to firing all your attorneys and bombing random boats in a way all experts say is illegal is that partners will no longer trust you to follow the law. 1218
Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 19/02/2026Iran news pretty good for the Zeitzoff hypothesis. 030
Reposted by Andrew LittleThomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 16/02/2026Order No Option But Sabotage here: -OUP (30% discount code: ASFLYQ6): global.oup.com/academic/pro... -Bookshop: bookshop.org/p/books/no-o... -Amazon: www.amazon.com/dp/019779684... 3174
Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 19/02/2026If you aren't checking the reproducibility/robustness of your papers with AI, someone else is going to do it for you! 390
Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 12/02/2026Another win for Bayes’ rule (people with weaker priors update more in response to common signal) 0164
Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 12/02/2026Looks super interesting. One quick related anecdote: for this paper we were very explicit in designing study 1 in a way where a null would be just as interesting (if not more), and we got a null! We certainly didn't bury this, even did a conference presentation based on it. osf.io/preprints/so...osf.ioOSF 150
Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 10/02/2026Another medium term prediction: it will become a norm/required to include replication code for most papers at the time of submission, and this will be used in the review process 280
Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 05/02/2026Is this some kind of 3D horseshoe theory where extreme anti-elite/anti-establishment people find common cause with… the elite establishment? 2162
Reposted by Andrew LittleInstituto Juan Linz @institute-juanlinz.bsky.social · 05/02/2026☀️☀️ Exciting news in Madrid! We are VERY happy to officially announce the creation of the Instituto Juan Linz (aka “IJL”). ijlinz.es The IJL ("Juan Linz Institute" in English) is dedicated to cutting-edge research and teaching in political science, sociology, economic history and more. thread 1/12 15228
Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 04/02/2026The news about the Washington Post is terrible in many ways but it's weird to see this cast as "capitulating to Trump" when they are keeping (and at least claiming to focus more) on national/political news which has done a lot of good reporting criticizing him. 010
Reposted by Andrew LittleJonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 02/02/20261. Trump certainly wants to fully rig elections. 2. He has no actual plausible plan to do so. 3. We should absolutely take the threat very seriously and actively do what's possible to protect elections and democracy. 4. What's actually likely is success or failure at the margins; every bit counts. 19629203
Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 01/02/2026Quick thought on the John Murdoch-Burns piece in FT: it's an interesting exercise with some strong insights, but the headline result most are pointing to (US Backsliding faster than Hungary/Venezuela/Russia!) is kind of misleading. www.ft.com/content/b474...ft.comHow steep is Trump’s democratic backsliding?The erosion of established norms has been dramatic but institutions are holding up 22110
Reposted by Andrew LittleMaia @maiamindel.bsky.social · 30/01/2026new frontiers in maga: italian man tries to convince other people that actually scandinavians are an inferior race 613412
Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 30/01/2026Semi-serious take: this isn't necessarily bad for democracy, because either Rs/courts/bureaucracy fights back, or Rs will face a big electoral penalty 222
Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 30/01/2026For those not on the train yet, another Claude code usage to make academic life marginally less annoying: "we are submitting this paper to [JOURNAL], find their formatting requirements and make a new .tex file called submission.tex which meets these requirements" 281
Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 29/01/2026Fun AI use: have an amazing/weird dish at a restaurant, take a picture of the menu, ask for a home recipe. Snail Bar honeynut squash tostadas are A+, home ChatGPT version a solid B+/A- 010
Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 28/01/2026An interesting case for (long) term limits I’ve never seen made is that you get cohorts in the majority who can call out nonsense without electoral pressure. (Probably bad if everyone lacks this pressure but good to have some with it?) 330
Reposted by Andrew LittleAlex Coppock @aecoppock.bsky.social · 27/01/2026🎺 Call for proposals 🎺 1️⃣ replicate an existing experiment 2️⃣ run a novel experiment on repdata.com 3️⃣ coauthor with Mary McGrath and me to meta-analyze the replications and existing studies 4️⃣ publish your study details: alexandercoppock.com/replication_... applications open Feb 1 please repost! 08071
Reposted by Andrew LittleGwyneth McClendon @gmcclendon.bsky.social · 27/01/2026JOIN us for this year’s Rebecca Morton conference on experimental political science at NYU! March 6-7. We have a great line up of papers and posters! Program (scroll down) here: wp.nyu.edu/cesspolitica... Register (no fee) here: nyu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...wp.nyu.eduAnnual NYU CESS Experimental Political Science Conference 11819