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Andrew Little

@anthlittle.bsky.social
6.4K followers 480 following 960 posts

Prof at UC Berkeley. Formal theory, political beliefs, democracy. Associate Editor at ‪@ajpseditor.bsky.social‬ anthlittle.github.io

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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 13h
Two tricky things here. 1 it’s very hard to tell the difference between someone inputting their own notes to an LLM and “one shot” asking for a review based on a paper upload. 2 one shotting will topically produce a mediocre but not terrible review on content.
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Studying bias with math (stats, formal, etc) is good at forcing you to always think “biased with respect to/compared to what”?
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
All of the serious evidence shows that prediction markets are in fact predictive and human experts are the ones who are bad at prediction. (More work on this soon 😉)
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Brad LeVeck @bradleveck.bsky.social · 30/05/2026
If you're UC faculty, I'd encourage you to sign this letter in support of the University of California reinstating the SAT in admissions. ucstudentsuccess.org
ucstudentsuccess.org
UCStudentSuccess
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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
Thrilled to share that my book, No Option But Sabotage, was reviewed in @prospectmagazine.co.uk Roberts engages with my book and highlights the dilemma facing eco activists in a world of rising climate pressures and policy failures. www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/culture/7363...
prospectmagazine.co.uk
The great schism in eco-activism
Some want the movement to have broader appeal. Others want a return to the violence of the past. Will one side win out?
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
Seems like the natural next step in the gerrymandering wars is targeting specific members of congress and breaking up their district. Why shouldn’t NY target Stefanik?
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
Parallel updating (plus floor effects) undefeated
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
Getting a PhD is a weird career choice if you aren‘t a curious person, and most curios peoples’ interests don’t lie nearly within a subfield of one discipline. (Not a knock on Paul’s answer I just find it odd that people ask this question.)
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 18/04/2026
Dunno what’s more surprising this or conservatives getting shrooms
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
Great to see some fun coverage of @carleton.edu, but "BREAKING" may be a somewhat exaggerated way to describe a house where students have been making cookies for 40+ years.
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
Judging by the (non)response to this, I should admit I was wrong. The democratic pessimists would not have said Orban losing would be evidence against their position. Rather, there is nothing that they would admit is evidence against their position 🤷‍♂️
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
Something I would like to hear from people who are confident the world is getting less democratic is what evidence or events would lead you to revise that belief? Part of what I'm getting at here is I'd bet a common answer a few years ago would have been "Orban losing" bsky.app/profile/anth...
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
Don’t totally disagree with this, but peacefully conceding defeat is important! And many figures similar to Orban did not do this. Unclear how much of this is a difference in authoritarian goals vs just losing by so much that trying to fight it was futile.
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
One case is one case but it is remarkable how we just saw another wave of reports about the dire state of global democracy, and the poster child of this purported decline just lost a competitive election.
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Anna Grzymala-Busse @annagbusse.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
Reuters says Tisza has at least 135 seats: 133 is the constitutional supermajority! Live by highly disproportional electoral systems (which Orbán made even more disproportional with the extra compensation votes awarded to winners), die by highly disproportional electoral systems.
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
Looks like we have entered the AI-generated email audit experiment era
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 11/04/2026
And they say AI will be bad for the humanities
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 04/04/2026
It's almost like there is a trade-off between loyalty and competence 🤔
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
Great articulation of my main worry about AI use among researchers (including myself!) Among current students, a hugely beneficial trait will be the ability to force oneself to sometimes do hard stuff on their own to really understand it even when AI is faster. ergosphere.blog/posts/the-ma...
ergosphere.blog
The machines are fine. I'm worried about us.
On AI agents, grunt work, and the part of science that isn't replaceable.
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
Excited to share new paper w/ @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social: "Veiled Power: How Rosenwald Teachers Quietly Shaped the Civil Rights Movement" The puzzle: did ~5,000 segregated schools built in rural South emphasizing “manual labor” strengthen or weaken Jim Crow? 🧵 omarwasow.com/wasow_grumba...
Veiled Power: How Rosenwald Teachers Quietly Shaped
the Civil Rights Movement

Omar Wasow∗ Jacob M. Grumbach∗

April 1, 2026

Abstract
What precipitates the collapse of seemingly durable social orders like Jim Crow? During the 1920s, approximately 5,000 “Rosenwald Schools” were built across the rural South through a partnership between philanthropist Julius Rosenwald and Black communities who raised matching funds, donated land, and petitioned local governments. Local elites saw vocational training that would preserve the racial order. We argue Black educators used this accommodationist cover to build veiled capacity: organizational infrastructure for collective action behind a veil
of compliance. Counties with more Rosenwald Schools show greater civil rights protest in the 1960s. Mediation analysis reveals that pre-existing social capital predicted protest through Rosenwald teacher placements, not enrollment. Instrumental variable models suggest the effect is not driven by community selection. Moving from no Rosenwald teachers to the 75th percentile predicts 45% more protest. The political effects of education may depend less on what elites intend than on what educators build where elites cannot see.
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American Political Science Review @apsrjournal.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
From our FirstView articles: A Precolonial Paradox? Rethinking Political Centralization and Its Legacies by MARTHA WILFAHRT. doi.org/10.1017/S000...
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
At least we know that the war does have a concrete and achievable goal (creating insider trading opportunities)
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
Trump admin violating domestic law, international law, and now the law of total variance
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 21/03/2026
it is in fact time for some game theory
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Yamil Ricardo Velez @yamilrvelez.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
New paper with Stephanie Zonszein! Political news is more important than ever, but local papers are shuttering across the US. In recent years, innovative community-centered outlets led by journalists have taken to WhatsApp and social media to reach groups such as immigrants. What are their effects?
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
New objective indicator of democracy?
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David Rand @dgrand.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
DebunkBot is live on BlueSky! Tag @debunkbot.bsky.social in reply to any post to get the facts
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
Very nice paper, to be more spicy I would say it shows how both sides of the "is moderation good" debate misread the implications of spatial models of political competition (or, if you must, the "median voter theorem")
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
Agreed. “Let’s one shot a mediocre paper in 15 minutes” is a fun parlor trick but the more exciting thing is the ability to produce higher quality research faster by treating AI like a hyper efficient (if not particularly creative and sometimes mistake-prone) collaborator.
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
Sort of an obvious point but one drawback to firing all your attorneys and bombing random boats in a way all experts say is illegal is that partners will no longer trust you to follow the law.
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
Iran news pretty good for the Zeitzoff hypothesis.
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Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
Order No Option But Sabotage here: -OUP (30% discount code: ASFLYQ6): global.oup.com/academic/pro... -Bookshop: bookshop.org/p/books/no-o... -Amazon: www.amazon.com/dp/019779684...
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
If you aren't checking the reproducibility/robustness of your papers with AI, someone else is going to do it for you!
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
Another win for Bayes’ rule (people with weaker priors update more in response to common signal)
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
Looks super interesting. One quick related anecdote: for this paper we were very explicit in designing study 1 in a way where a null would be just as interesting (if not more), and we got a null! We certainly didn't bury this, even did a conference presentation based on it. osf.io/preprints/so...
osf.io
OSF
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
Another medium term prediction: it will become a norm/required to include replication code for most papers at the time of submission, and this will be used in the review process
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 07/02/2026
It is in fact time for some game theory
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
Is this some kind of 3D horseshoe theory where extreme anti-elite/anti-establishment people find common cause with… the elite establishment?
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Instituto Juan Linz @institute-juanlinz.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
☀️☀️ Exciting news in Madrid! We are VERY happy to officially announce the creation of the Instituto Juan Linz (aka “IJL”). ijlinz.es The IJL ("Juan Linz Institute" in English) is dedicated to cutting-edge research and teaching in political science, sociology, economic history and more. thread 1/12
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
The news about the Washington Post is terrible in many ways but it's weird to see this cast as "capitulating to Trump" when they are keeping (and at least claiming to focus more) on national/political news which has done a lot of good reporting criticizing him.
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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
1. Trump certainly wants to fully rig elections. 2. He has no actual plausible plan to do so. 3. We should absolutely take the threat very seriously and actively do what's possible to protect elections and democracy. 4. What's actually likely is success or failure at the margins; every bit counts.
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 01/02/2026
Started, going
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 01/02/2026
Quick thought on the John Murdoch-Burns piece in FT: it's an interesting exercise with some strong insights, but the headline result most are pointing to (US Backsliding faster than Hungary/Venezuela/Russia!) is kind of misleading. www.ft.com/content/b474...
ft.com
How steep is Trump’s democratic backsliding?
The erosion of established norms has been dramatic but institutions are holding up
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Maia @maiamindel.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
new frontiers in maga: italian man tries to convince other people that actually scandinavians are an inferior race
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
Semi-serious take: this isn't necessarily bad for democracy, because either Rs/courts/bureaucracy fights back, or Rs will face a big electoral penalty
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
For those not on the train yet, another Claude code usage to make academic life marginally less annoying: "we are submitting this paper to [JOURNAL], find their formatting requirements and make a new .tex file called submission.tex which meets these requirements"
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
Fun AI use: have an amazing/weird dish at a restaurant, take a picture of the menu, ask for a home recipe. Snail Bar honeynut squash tostadas are A+, home ChatGPT version a solid B+/A-
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Andrew Little @anthlittle.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
An interesting case for (long) term limits I’ve never seen made is that you get cohorts in the majority who can call out nonsense without electoral pressure. (Probably bad if everyone lacks this pressure but good to have some with it?)
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Alex Coppock @aecoppock.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
🎺 Call for proposals 🎺 1️⃣ replicate an existing experiment 2️⃣ run a novel experiment on repdata.com 3️⃣ coauthor with Mary McGrath and me to meta-analyze the replications and existing studies 4️⃣ publish your study details: alexandercoppock.com/replication_... applications open Feb 1 please repost!
Call for Proposals: Data Collection for
Replication+Novel Political Science Survey Experiments
Alexander Coppock and Mary McGrath
January 27, 2026
We invite proposals for a survey experiment replication+novel design competition. Se-
lected replication+novel design survey experiments will be conducted on large samples of
American respondents, quota sampled to match U.S. Census margins and filtered for quality
and attention by the survey sample provider Rep Data (repdata.com).
Each proposal consists of two parts: (1) a replication study of an existing, previously
published survey experiment, and (2) a novel experimental design on a topic of the authors’
choosing.
The replication studies and reanalyses of the existing studies will be combined into a
meta-paper to be co-authored by all authors of accepted proposals along with the princi-
pal investigators (Coppock and McGrath). As a condition for acceptance, authors commit
to sharing the data and producing a write-up of the findings from their novel design for
submission to a scholarly journal, and public posting of a working paper pre-publication.
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Gwyneth McClendon @gmcclendon.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
JOIN us for this year’s Rebecca Morton conference on experimental political science at NYU! March 6-7. We have a great line up of papers and posters! Program (scroll down) here: wp.nyu.edu/cesspolitica... Register (no fee) here: nyu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...
wp.nyu.edu
Annual NYU CESS Experimental Political Science Conference
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