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Keiran Pedley

@keiranpedley.bsky.social
13K followers 1.4K following 548 posts

Pollster at Ipsos. Genuine poll Boffin. Expect Spurs polling and politics!!

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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
At an event last night I said the key variable in GB politics today is Farages future. If he sticks around I think people are writing Reform off too soon. Despite everything they are still ahead of the Tories, they are most trusted on the top issue w/voters (immigration) and they’ve got bags of cash
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Back from Tory conference. Interesting how optimistic the party seems. Can’t help feel there’s been an overcorrection here. Yes the party is no longer on life support but w/ 54% saying the party is out of date & 54% disagreeing they are ready for govt they’ve got a long way to go
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PoliticsHome @politicshome.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Kemi Badenoch has steadied the Conservative ship But the Tory brand remains stubbornly weak, and the battle with Reform for supremacy on the right remains unresolved It'd be premature to buy shares in Prime Minister Badenoch, writes @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social's @keiranpedley.bsky.social
politicshome.com
Don't buy shares in Prime Minister Badenoch just yet
A year ago, the Conservative Party appeared trapped in a downward spiral, squeezed by Reform UK and facing questions about its long-term viability....
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Passing the pint test... New @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social polling shows Brits would most like to go for a pint with Andy Burnham.
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Watching coverage of Andy Burnham this morning there is clearly an inherent conflict between the manifesto he feels compelled to deliver & the things he holds important that he wants to change. I dont see how that conflict can survive 3 years. Early election feels inevitable.
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Our data at @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social shows part of the reason for Labour's fortunes improving under Burnham is that they are retaining more of their 2024 vote (61% today vs 46% under Starmer). Notable drop in Lab to Green switchers. Is Burnham uniting the left?
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
The Burnham bounce is real - but there's a catch. Brief🧵of what @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social data tells us ahead of #Labourconf First - clearly Labour's fortunes in headline voting intention have improved from a year ago (and from when Burnham took over). Labour now have a small lead.
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
The Burnham bounce is real - but there's a catch. Brief🧵of what @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social data tells us ahead of #Labourconf First - clearly Labour's fortunes in headline voting intention have improved from a year ago (and from when Burnham took over). Labour now have a small lead.
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
🚨NEW @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social Political Monitor: Labour lead at 4 🚨 Labour 27 (-1) Reform 23 (-2) Conservatives 21 (+3) Greens 13 (+1) Lib Dems 8 (-1) Others 8 (-1) 1,031 GB adults interviewed online 10-15 Sept 2026. There's more 🧵
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Key stat from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social 58% of the public consider Reform 'extreme' Can a party win a general election with those numbers?
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Key stat from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social 58% of the public consider Reform 'extreme' Can a party win a general election with those numbers?
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
🚨NEW @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social Political Monitor: Labour lead at 4 🚨 Labour 27 (-1) Reform 23 (-2) Conservatives 21 (+3) Greens 13 (+1) Lib Dems 8 (-1) Others 8 (-1) 1,031 GB adults interviewed online 10-15 Sept 2026. There's more 🧵
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
It’s fashionable to say Reform / Farage problems don’t matter because his base / public don’t care. But his base isn’t big enough to win a GE and the public do care. Look at the shift from May in who the public think could be PM. If the British right think KB their best bet that matters - a lot!
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Important via @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social Public are now just as likely to think Kemi Badenoch will be PM in the future as Nigel Farage Farage May 50% likely / 34% unlikely August 38% likely / 47% unlikely Badenoch May 24% likely / 60% unlikely August 36% likely / 47% unlikely
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Important via @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social Public are now just as likely to think Kemi Badenoch will be PM in the future as Nigel Farage Farage May 50% likely / 34% unlikely August 38% likely / 47% unlikely Badenoch May 24% likely / 60% unlikely August 36% likely / 47% unlikely
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
New from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social: the Burnham bounce continues in full force Our latest Political Pulse shows 40% favourable towards Burnham and 24% unfavourable. An 8 point increase in the % favourable this month
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
New from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social Just one in five Britons say Nigel Farage is an honest person This is the attribute he is least associated with from a list of 15.
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Reform clearly struggling at the moment with internal rows and falling poll ratings for party and Farage. However it would be wrong to write them off just yet 1/2
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Not convinced that result is anything special for Nigel Farage. Of course his % vote share goes up vs 2024. Reforms share nationally has almost doubled in that time (~15% to 25%) so it’s bound to.
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
The tone of Burnham’s first week meets voters where they are My analysis for @politicshome.bsky.social looking at what @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social numbers tell us✍️ www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...
politicshome.com
The tone of Burnham's first week has met voters where they are
The new Prime Minister is wise to focus on the cost of living. That is the issue that will define his premiership.
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PoliticsHome @politicshome.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
Andy Burnham's early focus on the cost of living is politically sound. He is meeting the voters where they are, with more than 7 in 10 concerned about how it is affecting them personally The new PM will know he must be able to persuade voters he “gets it”, writes @keiranpedley.bsky.social
politicshome.com
The tone of Burnham's first week has met voters where they are
The new Prime Minister is wise to focus on the cost of living. That is the issue that will define his premiership.
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
The tone of Burnham’s first week meets voters where they are My analysis for @politicshome.bsky.social looking at what @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social numbers tell us✍️ www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...
politicshome.com
The tone of Burnham's first week has met voters where they are
The new Prime Minister is wise to focus on the cost of living. That is the issue that will define his premiership.
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Where did it all go wrong for Keir Starmer and the lessons Andy Burnham must learn. My piece today looking at @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social data highlights the importance of starting well and protecting your left flank Article in comments
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Where did it all go wrong for Keir Starmer and the lessons Andy Burnham must learn. My piece today looking at @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social data highlights the importance of starting well and protecting your left flank Article in comments
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
🚨 NEW from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social Britain backs Binface 🚨 When asked who they would prefer win the Clacton by-election... 33% say Count Binface 21% say Nigel Farage 32% say neither 13% are undecided
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Matt @differentmatt.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
I don't know how they do things in Britain, but here in the US, the next step would be for Count Binface to debate Neither.
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
🚨 NEW from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social Britain backs Binface 🚨 When asked who they would prefer win the Clacton by-election... 33% say Count Binface 21% say Nigel Farage 32% say neither 13% are undecided
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Anoosh Chakelian @anooshc.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
Interesting insights from @keiranpedley.bsky.social in this great @meganekenyon.bsky.social piece - “The Greens have got great potential, but there is a bit of a ceiling… they’ve got a way to go with older voters, part of that is a values thing.”
newstatesman.com
Half of Londoners are considering going Green in May
Exclusive polling from Ipsos shows the Green Party eating into Labour's vote
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
Would Andy Burnham win a by-election? We don't know for sure but one thing we do know is he is VERY popular in the north-west. More so than Starmer, Labour and Nigel Farage. If anyone has a personal brand up there - it is him. Source: @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social Political Pulse
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
Something I keep coming back to. What impact does the 2028 US presidential election have on the (presumed) 2029 UK General Election? Can't help think a Democrat win has a pretty significant impact on our landscape.
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
Some important substance in public opinion ahead of the budget today via @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social Public slightly more likely to prefer tax cuts to increases in public spending when given the choice 36%-30%. Difference is subtle but trend since election clear.
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
New from me for @labourlist.bsky.social on how @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social polling shows Labour need to speak more for those that want radical change to win again. 50% of Brits want radical change but just 4% of this group trust Labour to deliver it More here labourlist.org/2025/11/brit...
labourlist.org
'Labour won being cautious - but Brits are impatient for radical change' - LabourList
Labour's manifesto promised change. But Brits aren't seeing it and are losing faith that Labour can deliver says Ipsos UK's Keiran Pedley.
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 16/11/2025
New from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social Keir Starmer’s net satisfaction rating unchanged at -66. The worst rating for a PM in the history of Ipsos polling.
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 16/11/2025
New from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social Labour sinks to historic low with Ipsos. Greens at historic high. Reform UK 33% (-1 vs September 2025), Labour 18% (-4), Conservatives 16% (+2), Green Party 15% (+3), Liberal Democrats 12% (n/c), Others 6% (n/c). Interviews Oct 30th-Nov 5th
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 27/09/2025
New from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social Keir Starmer is the most unpopular PM in the history of Ipsos polling. Net satisfaction with PM -66 Meanwhile Reform lead at 12. Reform 34 Labour 22 Conservatives 14 (record low) Lib Dems 12 Greens 12
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 25/09/2025
NEW from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social what do the public think of Andy Burnham vs Keir Starmer Burnham Favourable 29% Unfavourable 20% Net +9 Starmer Favourable 21% Unfavourable 54% Net -33
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 17/09/2025
As the U.K. prepares to recognise a Palestinian state @Ipsos_in_the_UK polling suggests - 44% support this decision - 13% oppose. With the rest neutral or not giving an opinion.
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 17/09/2025
It’s the Trump state visit. But what do the British public think? Britain needs a leader like Trump: 29% Britain does not need a leader like Trump 62% Source: @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social
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John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch.ft.com · 09/09/2025
British economic sentiment is following the US in becoming an increasingly partisan signal. There has been a red-blue sentiment gap for decades, but it’s widening (data: @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social / @keiranpedley.bsky.social)
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 07/09/2025
Really great article from new left party from @siennarodgers.bsky.social www.politicshome.com/news/article...
politicshome.com
Inside The Founding Of Jeremy Corbyn's New Party: 'End This Horrible Power Struggle'
The trials and tribulations of founding a new party on the left. Can they unite? What challenges lie ahead? Sienna Rodgers reports
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Ipsos in the UK @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
@keiranpedley.bsky.social & @camerongarrett.bsky.social will dig into all this (and more) at the conference later this week. If you’re there and want to talk polling, drop them a message ☕
IPSOS IN THE UK @ PARTY CONFERENCES
Keiran Pedley, Director UK Politics
Cameron Garrett, Associate Director
Our experts will be in Birmingham, come say hi!
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 27/08/2025
My gut says as long as immigration and asylum are the number one issue for the public then Reform wins the next election comfortably. Labour simply won’t win a political arms race on that subject. Question is can they move tue conversation on?
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 25/08/2025
Rewatching Derry girls. What a wonderful show. Clinton episode really hits home. Politics can be a depressing, soul sucking thing at times. But sometimes it works. Sometimes things really do get better. And that’s great.
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
🚨 New from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social Our issues index shows immigration the number one issue for the public - with importance growing 🚨 48% say immigration number one issue - up 8 pts from last month There’s more (short 🧵)
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
🚨 New from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social Our issues index shows immigration the number one issue for the public - with importance growing 🚨 48% say immigration number one issue - up 8 pts from last month There’s more (short 🧵)
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 20/08/2025
🚨 1 in 5 Brits say they’d consider voting for new left wing party - including 1 in 3 aged under 35 🚨 New deep dive polling by @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social looks at how much appeal new Corbyn / Sultana party might have. I think potentially quite a lot but let’s deep dive 🧵
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 20/08/2025
🚨 1 in 5 Brits say they’d consider voting for new left wing party - including 1 in 3 aged under 35 🚨 New deep dive polling by @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social looks at how much appeal new Corbyn / Sultana party might have. I think potentially quite a lot but let’s deep dive 🧵
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 20/08/2025
🚨 1 in 5 Brits say they’d consider voting for new left wing party - including 1 in 3 aged under 35 🚨 New deep dive polling by @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social looks at how much appeal new Corbyn / Sultana party might have. I think potentially quite a lot but let’s deep dive 🧵
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 04/08/2025
Why are Reform going big on crime? @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social polling shows its the one Labour mission where the public think Reform would do the best job
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Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley.bsky.social · 31/07/2025
The most important thing any new left wing party could do is have a simple name. None of this united socialist workers of great britain yadda yadda nonsense. Something clean. The new left party or similar. Does what it says on the tin. See Brexit party for details.
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