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Isaiah Bishop

@isaiahbishop.bsky.social
7.4K followers 6.3K following 59K posts

ML Eng. and econometrics. Honorary Commodities Trader**. more left-posting than normal. **Regrettably degen trading on here, im sorry Views dont reflect my employer

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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 2h
Okay so if asheville is meant as a complement, i think we gotta go halifax, victoria, st johns, charlottetown. If its meant as bland, we go ottawa
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 3h
Kind of intrigued by the idea that canada and US have similar non financial + govt debt to GDPs, but canada's lives totally on HH balance sheet and US lives more evenly split and on govt balance sheet
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Reposted by Isaiah Bishop
George Pearkes @peark.es · 3h
Here’s an extremely brief effort to explain why bond yields going up is actually not bad news.
September 28, 2026
Rates. 10y yields briefly traded above 5.2% today, closing up 7 bps on the session. As shown below, they're the farthest from fair value that they've been in some time based on our qualitative model.
Bespoke 10y Yield Fair Value Model: Past Year
5.25
5.00
— 10y Yield (%)
10y Extreme Cheap
9/22/2026, First Fed
hike
4.75
4.50
10y Moderate
Cheap
4.25
4.00
10y Moderate Rich
3.75
3.50
7/25/2023, Last Fed
hike
9/18/2024, First Fed
12/10/2025, Last Fed
cut
cut
10y Extreme Rich
3.25
%
Our model assumes 2% inflation over the long term plus an inflation risk premium (35 bps, to use explicit TIPS pricing). With those values fixed, below we show the implicit growth (including risk premium around growth) forecast from the market given the consensus range of term premium (after backing out some amount off growth risk premium).
Current pricing assumes trend growth above 2% and rising.
Market-Implied Growth + Growth Risk Premium: 5.25% Is The Promised Land
10y UST Yield






Term Premium







-0.4
-0.2

0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8

1.2
1.4

3.00
1.05
0.85
0.65
0.45
0.25
0.05
-0.15
-0.35
-0.55
-0.75

3.25
1.30
1.10
0.90
0.70
0.50
0.30
0.10
-0.10
-0.30
-0.50

3.50
1.55
1.35
1.15
0.95
0.75
0.55
0.35
0.15
-0.05
-0.25

3.75
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00

4.00
2.05
1.85
1.65
1.45
1.25
1.05
0.85
0.65
0.45
0.25

4.25
2.30
2.10
1.90
1.70
1.50
1.30
1.10
0.90
0.70
0.50

4.50
2.55
2.35
2.15
1.95
1.75
1.55
1.35
1.15
0.95
0.75

4.75
2.80
2.60
2.40
2.20
2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00

5.00
3.05
2.85
2.65
2.45
2.25
2.05
1.85
1.65
1.45
1.25

5.25
3.30
3.10
2.90
2.70
2.50
2.30
2.10
1.90
1.70
1.50

5.50
3.55
3.35
3.15
2.95
2.75
2.55
2.35
2.15
1.95
1.75

5.75
3.80
3.60
3.40
3.20
3.00
2.80
2.60
2.40
2.20
2.00

6.00
4.05
3.85
3.65
3.45
3.25
3.05
2.85
2.65
2.45
2.25
Range of TP Estimates
Note: Assumes 35 bps inflation risk premium, 2% inflation. Term does not include growth or inflation risk premium.
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Reposted by Isaiah Bishop
David W (aka Flex NP) @rnflex.bsky.social · 5h
Full Retatrutide phase 3 obesity data published today. It's gonna take a minute to fill dissect this. The appendix alone has 70 pages of data. Long story short we created a drug that's almost too good. Huge chunks of people stopped or reduced doses from excess weight reductions.
nejm.org
Retatrutide, a Triple Hormone Receptor Agonist, for Treatment of Obesity | NEJM
Retatrutide is a triple-receptor agonist of glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide, glucagon-like peptide-1, and glucagon receptors. In this phase 3, randomized, double-blind trial, we assign...
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 4h
This feels so Euro to look at
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Reposted by Isaiah Bishop
rev. howard arson @theophite.bsky.social · 6h
i am pretty convinced that the next GLM release is going to cause some pretty apocalyptic cybersecurity consequences not long from now
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 6h
Im anemic again, and boy i miss iron
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Reposted by Isaiah Bishop
Scoiattolo @scarnecchia.net · 9h
Anthropic is just directly fearmongering about the open weight models that are eating their lunch on price now huh
anthropic.com
GLM-5.3 and the Spread of Advanced Cyber Capabilities
GLM-5.3 can autonomously build end-to-end cyber exploits, but unlike other frontier models, it was released without meaningful safeguards to limit misuse.
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 8h
My thoughts on the personal agent really do make me feel like im out of touch, but i still dont really get it
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 10h
6/10 canadians prefer carnery as PM. so that includes like 1.5 canadians who arent even voting liberal
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Reposted by Isaiah Bishop
Tom Hearden @followtheh.bsky.social · 11h
US LOOKING TO EUROPE TO RELEASE DIESEL FROM RESERVES: POLITICO good luck with that!
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Reposted by Isaiah Bishop
In Medias Malone @professormusgrave.bsky.social · 12h
www.bbc.com/news/article...
bbc.com
New York Times executive fatally shot by elderly in-laws, police say
Jonathan McKinsey's in-laws, who are both 77 years old, face multiple charges including first-degree murder.
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 12h
Why?
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Reposted by Isaiah Bishop
Mark Carney @mark-carney.bsky.social · 13h
We’re referring Alberta’s Calgary-Red Deer-Edmonton high speed rail strategy to the Major Projects Office. It’s time to build the infrastructure that matches our ambition.
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 13h
I dont think this is contested at all. But i think its moreso that shipping has gotten so expensive people are just risking it. Whereas before it wasnt worth it
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 14h
I think its possible most people in geo-politics who self-describe as realists have been the wrongest of all the time
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Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 15h
Loved this. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Here’s what we learned from ordering 213 curries at Wetherspoons
giftarticle.ft.com
Here’s what we learned from ordering 213 curries at Wetherspoons
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 15h
Im not sure how much i believe in like iron-air batteries but we should at least think about it
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Reposted by Isaiah Bishop
Pete Massie @petemassie.bsky.social · 15h
Massive surge in wind power is driving extended zero and near-zero prices in Alberta over the past 24 hours - and massive exports to BC.
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 15h
Did we think they were just vibing this out or?
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 15h
Someone please tell me they have a better plan that isnt in this slogan
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 16h
So whats the important stuff to know about the anthropic IPO documents?
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 16h
The Ukrainian drones that are basically two RPGs and then a mine airdropped, are equal parts terrifying and metal
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Anyway this post brought to you by seeing someone who thinks fortress NA is still on the table, and that Canada must seriously worry about a russian incursion into the tundra
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I was going through a lot of the geopol canada coverage and like it is amazing how much people can get by in that without really grasping things
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I feel like i just need a review aggregator for AI models because benchmarks feel increasingly irrelevant to practicality
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I spent all day today basically listening to interviews with CAF people, and former CAF people. i think one theme ive noticed is how much they talk about joint infrastructure with dual civilian military use and that bodes well
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I try not to retweet trump so no one has to see him. But its maybe possible he thinks he's changed it for everyone
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Genuinely dont know what the mood is like in the UK, but hard to see how this could be avoided
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Speaking of macro, its kind of interesting that most people younger than 35 lets say, cant really remember a standard recession
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Something really funny about trump cooking up a crisis thats not bad enough to be recessionary in the US, but bad enough to be really inflationary
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Reposted by Isaiah Bishop
Katie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · 28/09/2026
please, my bonds, they are very sick
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
that seems like a lot for a steel mill
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
NeRF as reference for a coding agent to model is working great for me so far
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
If crude prices go up its kind of just immaterial to our problems atm
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Its very clear zuckerberg could change the ticket again right as the credit cycle hits and that would be amazing
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Not to rag on tim, but i think often the analysis of demand here is quite sloppy/loose among finance and tech guys. Tokens are tokens and there's some price. What we know from router services is that frontier model demand just isnt that high yet, and demand is for different classes of models
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Do have to imagine the resumed loadings and this are related
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
As a member of the public, reading canadian forces subreddit, we really gotta work on reducing reliance on the US because they really feel like they owe them. Both career wise and shit like casevac.
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
it didnt really add that much to oil prices either, i think my general feeling is that if youre short on refining oil just isnt that interesting
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Once again, encouraging everyone to avoid using 2023 as a benchmark for this analysis
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
me: "is this a good procurement decision?" military expert: "its actually more important we made any decision at all in a timely manner"
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
theres a lot of surprisingly good canadian mil content where its like random guy speaks with vice admiral who is incredibly open about how we're thinking about unmanned ships
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Reposted by Isaiah Bishop
cones @coneshotline.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
WHY IS THERE A CHIBI ANIME ANDY BURNHAM
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I need an article STAT
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The whole monogamy is irrational thing is like pretty emblematic of bad thinking just in general
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Reposted by Isaiah Bishop
Phillip Carter @phillipcarter.dev · 27/09/2026
I do say this non-jokingly: If you want to use AI tools built by serious people are aren’t in sex cults, Copilot and the emerging MAI family of models is decidedly none of that mess
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
One step in the "LLMs are like ants" direction. is that if you can break this down into "match the reference imagery" it works, but hand it 6 pictures and it cant picture the geometry of a house
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
LLM 3D understanding has come a long way, but i am 6/10 on windows attached to the house model right now
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
I kind of think we mix up the humanities ideal with the desire to be a good citizen. Like people studied humanities because that was what a good citizen was. An educated person understood the classics, it was socially what you had to do, and self improvement
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