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David Milliken

@davidmilliken.bsky.social
2.8K followers 1.2K following 287 posts

Reuters economics reporter covering the Bank of England, HM Treasury, bond markets and UK data.

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Reposted by David Milliken
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 12h
🥳 UK economy grew more than thought in the second quarter. • GDP +0.5% qq versus a previous estimate of +0.4% (same with GDP per head) • Strong business investment growth (see 👇) • Current account balance (exc. precious metals) smallest in 5 years at 1% of GDP thanks to services exports
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David Milliken @davidmilliken.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Britain sold £4.25 billion of 10-year government bonds this morning at an average yield of 5.383% – the highest borrowing cost for newly issued 10-year debt since 1999. Yields were higher in the secondary market in 2007, but no 10-year bonds were actually issued then so the cost wasn't locked in.
Table of results from the UK Debt Management Office's 29/09/2026 auction of £4.25 billion of the 4.875% 2036 gilt
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David Milliken @davidmilliken.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
For connoisseurs of UK labour data, the ONS has now produced a reworking of LFS data using PAYE numbers to better adjust for the post-pandemic drop in responses. Key chart is here, showing a bigger fall in employment at the start of pandemic, stronger recovery after and more decline recently.
Estimated rate of employment among people aged 16 to 64 years, before and after recalibration of Labour Force Survey (LFS) weights to Pay As You Earn (PAYE) employee totals, Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2019 to Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2025, Great Britain
Source: Labour Force Survey from the Office for National Statistics, Pay As You Earn Real Time Information from HM Revenue and Customs
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David Milliken @davidmilliken.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Busy day at the Bank of England for @bruceandy.bsky.social and me. Three big takeaways: 1/ BoE sees inflation exceeding 4% early next year (in July it saw a 3.2% peak) 2/ Bailey says rate hike now "more likely" 3/ revamp of QT, including 6-month pause on gilt sales and end to 30-year gilt sales
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Reposted by David Milliken
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Bank of England to hold rates but energy shock stirs talk of a hike www.reuters.com/world/uk/ban...
reuters.com
Bank of England to hold rates but energy shock stirs talk of a hike
The Bank of England looks set to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday but investors are watching for any hint that surging energy prices could force it to follow the example of the U.S. Federal Res...
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David Milliken @davidmilliken.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
One way for the Bank of England to tackle high UK public inflation expectations: replace the survey company with one that reports lower ones! Still getting to the bottom of what's gone on here....
News release
Following a competitive re-tendering process, Savanta became the provider of the Inflation Attitudes Survey from August 2026. To assess the impact of this change, a parallel run of the survey was conducted by both Ipsos and Savanta in May. In the parallel run, inflation perceptions were the same in both the Ipsos and the Savanta surveys, at 5.0%. However, inflation expectations at all of the 1yr, 2yr and 5yr ahead horizons were lower in the Savanta survey. Median one-year, two-year and five-year ahead expectations were 3.6%, 3.1% and 3.3% respectively in the Savanta survey, compared with 4.0%, 3.5% and 3.9% respectively in the Ipsos survey. Comparisons of changes inflation expectations between the headline May results (Ipsos) and the headline August results (Savanta) should therefore be treated with caution, as in part they reflect changes in the provider as well as like-for-like changes in expectations.

This news release describes the results of the Bank of England’s latest quarterly survey of public attitudes to inflation.
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David Milliken @davidmilliken.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Much stronger than expected July UK GDP data this morning, taking the annual growth rate up to its fastest since February 2025. Question is to what extent this is an extension of first-half seasonal issues / World Cup boost or something more lasting. ONS says growth appears partly linked to AI.
Reuters/LSEG table showing July 2026 GDP data and its components (orange), along with analyst median forecasts (blue) and prior data (white). Arrows indicate data that exceeded the top-most analyst forecast.
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Reposted by David Milliken
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Gilt yields griding a bit higher again after yesterday's sell-off. 10-year yield now highest since August 2007. Short-dated yields at new three-year highs.
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David Milliken @davidmilliken.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Britain sold £4.25 billion of 30-year bonds today which will pay an interest rate of more than 5.8%, the highest since 1998. (Long-dated debt like this makes up <10% of UK issuance, but more normal 10-year debt isn't much cheaper for the gov't with a yield of ~5.1%) www.reuters.com/business/uk-...
reuters.com
UK sells 30-year debt at record yield, showing pressure on public finances
Britain sold £4.25 billion ($5.75 billion) of 30-year ​bonds on Tuesday with the highest yield since comparable records began in 1998, as rising global borrowing costs cast ‌a shadow over new finance ...
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David Milliken @davidmilliken.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Rising bond yields latest: the UK has just issued £900 million of inflation-linked debt maturing in 2049 with a real yield* of 2.496%, the highest since 2001 * the real yield is are the yield index-linked gilts pay on top of inflation
Table of results from the UK Debt Management Office's September 3 auction of the 1.875% 2049 index-linked gilt
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Reposted by David Milliken
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
CBI's gauge of manufacturing orders just rose to its highest level since November 2024. While still at a pretty low level in the scheme of things, it rose by 20 points in August - one of the biggest jumps since records began in the 1970s.
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Reposted by David Milliken
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Stunning @reuters.com gallery of the eclipse taken from different countries. (👇 Toby Melville at Glastonbury Tor) www.reuters.com/pictures/alo...
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David Milliken @davidmilliken.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
“Please do not leave this room thinking that the Bank of England is edging towards a hike” - Governor Andrew Bailey pushes back against rate hike bets after balance shifts on MPC www.reuters.com/world/europe...
reuters.com
Bank of England policymakers keep rates on hold but more back hike
The Bank of England kept interest rates on hold as expected on Thursday, but a third policymaker backed a rate hike due to renewed conflict between the United States and Iran.
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David Milliken @davidmilliken.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
End of term at the Bank of England: the last rate decision and press conference by Andrew Bailey before the summer break Economists see a repeat of June’s 7-2 vote to keep rates on hold as U.S.-Iran conflict drags on www.reuters.com/business/ban...
reuters.com
Bank of England to keep rates steady while oil prices gyrate
The Bank of ​England looks set to keep interest rates steady on Thursday as it weighs the impact of the on-again, off-again Iran war that has ‌closed the Strait of Hormuz for the past five months and ...
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Reposted by David Milliken
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Interesting speech from BoE's Catherine Mann. She sees risk that rate hikes could spark more volatility in gilts because of the shift in ownership towards hedge funds, overseas investors. That risks tightening fin. conditions by more than BoE intends www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2026/...
bankofengland.co.uk
Old exposures, new actors: implications for monetary policy of the UK’s external imbalances − speech by Catherine L. Mann
Given at the London School of Economics and Political Science
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David Milliken @davidmilliken.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Gilt market not thrilled at the prospect of Wes Streeting quitting (according to latest Times report) Gilt futures dropped about 25-30 ticks on the news (≈ a 0.03 percentage point rise in yields), erasing earlier gains from when some of the heat appeared to be coming off Starmer.
Chart of today's gilt futures (13/05/2026) showing a fall in prices and spike in trading volumes after a Times report that Wes Streeting is preparing to resign)
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David Milliken @davidmilliken.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
Ten-year gilt yields are finishing the day at their highest since 2008 at just over 5.1% (and 30 years - where the UK no longer issues much debt - topped 5.8%, their highest since 1998, earlier today). A nice chart from my colleague Dhara Ranasinghe illustrating the climb...
Line chart showing UK 10-year government bond yields over the past 10 years, from the Brexit referendum, through COVID, the 2022 mini-budget crisis and more recent climb due to the Iran war and increased political risks.
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David Milliken @davidmilliken.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli has a piece today on dynamic/personalised price-setting by businesses. Two takeaways 1/ on average, it doesn't appear to raise prices 2/ but the greater *variance* of prices means people think prices are higher, boosting inflation expectations
bankofengland.co.uk
This time it's personal: the rise of dynamic, personalised pricing and what it means for inflation
How personalised pricing is influencing inflation and shaping the future of price-setting for everyone.
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David Milliken @davidmilliken.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
The updated version of interview with BoE's Andrew Bailey is now out. Top lines: - Markets getting ahead of themselves on rate hike bets - BoE will act if needed - but keep in mind need to minimise hit to wider economy - Businesses say they have little pricing power (unlike 2022)
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David Milliken @davidmilliken.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Reuters had the pleasure of a chat with Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey this morning. A month into the Iran conflict, he still thinks markets have got ahead of themselves in betting heavily on rate hikes. Initial take here - more to follow soon. www.reuters.com/world/uk/ban...
reuters.com
Exclusive: Bank of England's Bailey says markets still ahead of themselves in pricing rate hikes
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Wednesday that markets were still getting ahead of themselves by pricing in ​interest rate hikes by the central bank in response to the ‌hit to the Briti...
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David Milliken @davidmilliken.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
Interesting comments from Asda boss Allan Leighton on temporary fuel shortages as people try to fill up before petrol and diesel prices rise further.... www.reuters.com/world/uk/bri...
reuters.com
Britain's Asda hit by motor fuel shortages as Iran war spurs demand
British supermarket Asda is experiencing temporary fuel shortages at some of its forecourts after a surge in ​demand driven by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, its boss ‌said on Friday.
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David Milliken @davidmilliken.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
A few data points for this morning - UK flash PMI shows weakest growth in 6 months in March - CBI retail sales shows biggest y/y fall in volumes since April 2020 - UK sells 10-year bond with highest yield since 2008 - Markets much calmer than yesterday More here: www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...
reuters.com
UK businesses show growth and inflation hit from Iran war
British business activity ​has grown at the slowest pace in six months and manufacturers' input costs accelerated at the fastest rate since 1992, according to a ‌survey that underscores the risks to t...
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David Milliken @davidmilliken.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
Another pretty mad day on the gilt market - with the biggest intra-day swing in over 3 years for two-year gilts after Trump's comments on Iran. Ten-year gilt yields also hit their highest since 2008. Hopefully this chart of two-year yields gives a sense of how unusual the past few days have been.
Chart of daily opening, high, low and closing yields for the two-year benchmark British government bond, since the start of 2026. Green lines are days when yields rose, red are days when yields fell.
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Reposted by David Milliken
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
Two-year gilt yields are now up over 30 bps on the day. I hate to say it but that is truly a move of mini-budget proportions, if it persists - although a big difference is that the market seems to be functioning a lot better, so it's not the same in that regard.
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Reposted by David Milliken
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
Random thoughts on Gorton & Denton: 1. Found this genuinely hard to call. Being familiar with the area wasn't a huge help - probably the first election I've covered where I didn't get a very strong steer in any direction.
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Reposted by David Milliken
Megan Greene @economistmeg.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
The policies of the Fed impact economies globally, but that doesn’t mean other central banks have to follow the Fed. If the Fed were to implement surprise rate cuts, the Bank of England should arguably do the exact opposite. My latest in @FT www.ft.com/content/fa99...
ft.com
The Bank of England does not need to ‘follow the Fed’
The decisions of the US central bank can have a mixed impact on the domestic UK economy
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David Milliken @davidmilliken.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
Today @reuters.com published this piece of mine on rising youth unemployment. I'd (obviously) encourage you to read the full thing, but a few impressions I got in the mean time... www.reuters.com/business/wor...
reuters.com
Rising UK youth unemployment tests government over wage pledge
The rise in Britain's youth unemployment rate to a 10-year high is posing tough questions for the country's centre-left government about its policy of phasing out a lower minimum wage for younger work...
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Reposted by David Milliken
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
The rise in Britain's youth unemployment rate to a 10-year high is posing tough questions for the country's centre-left government about its policy of phasing out a lower minimum wage for younger workers. ✍️ @davidmilliken.bsky.social www.reuters.com/business/wor...
reuters.com
Rising UK youth unemployment tests government over wage pledge
The rise in Britain's youth unemployment rate to a 10-year high is posing tough questions for the country's centre-left government about its policy of phasing out a lower minimum wage for younger work...
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David Milliken @davidmilliken.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
Today's ONS data confirmed a bit of a pattern: since 2022, Q1 has always been the strongest quarter for GDP growth, Q2 the second strongest and Q3 and Q4 third or fourth. The ONS looked into this in September and didn't find a problem, but not all economists are convinced...
Bar chart of quarterly UK GDP growth from Q1 2022 to Q4 2025 inclusive, showing stronger growth in Q1 and Q2 each year than in Q3 or Q4.
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Reposted by David Milliken
Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
Gilts selling off a wee bit, possibly in light of this report that Manchester MP Andrew Gwynne is stepping down - potentially making way for Andy Burnham.
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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Investment in housing and utilities could reduce government waste and boost growth if combined with the kind of collaborative, long-term planning that has served Manchester's economy, @andyburnham.bsky.social told @reuters.com "That is the way to reassure markets." www.reuters.com/world/uk/sta...
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Reposted by David Milliken
Andrew Fisher @fisherandrew79.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
Starter pack of those who frequently comment and campaign on Social Security policy ... If you're interested in social security policy, follow these accounts and, as ever, let me know any good omissions ... go.bsky.app/S8a5jDX
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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
UK GDP grew more than expected in November, boosted by JLR rebound - www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...
reuters.com
UK GDP grew more than expected in November, boosted by JLR rebound
Britain's economy grew more strongly than expected in November, boosted by the return to normal production at Jaguar Land Rover after a cyberattack which hit the carmaker and its suppliers.
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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
The world's central bankers side with Jay Powell, in a joint statement just released:
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Gavin Freeguard @gavinfreeguard.com · 11/01/2026
So... I've created a starter pack of UK government organisations currently on Bluesky: go.bsky.app/JHsY1Wz (Currently includes all those listed under ministerial and non-ministerial departments here www.gov.uk/government/o... - let me know any I've missed, or got wrong)
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David Milliken @davidmilliken.bsky.social · 03/01/2026
Reuters' live page on what's going on in Venezuela www.reuters.com/world/us/liv... and main story pulling threads together www.reuters.com/world/americ...
reuters.com
Live: Trump says US has captured Venezuela's President Maduro
The United States has not made such a direct intervention in Latin America since the invasion of Panama in 1989 to depose Manuel Noriega.
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Chris Whittall @chriswhittall.bsky.social · 09/09/2025
UK 10-year Gilts are Goldman Sachs' top cross-asset investment pick over the next six months Forecasts yields to drop 40bp and a total return of 6.1% VS return of 1.6% for Treasuries, 2.2% for the S&P500 Only sees gold as producing better returns over the next year
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David Milliken @davidmilliken.bsky.social · 11/08/2025
Lots of food for thought here on what might be improved at the ONS on processes, staff skills/pay etc. (Though note it's for if you were starting from scratch - implementing parts of this transition e.g. on staff numbers doesn't look easy.)
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David Milliken @davidmilliken.bsky.social · 06/08/2025
Stark results - though a bit unclear in the data what has triggered such a sharp downturn in orders (vague factors is site delays, fewer tender opportunities and clients unwilling to commit)
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Nye Cominetti @nyecominetti.bsky.social · 05/08/2025
Minimum wage remit for 2026 now published. As expected, it's mostly a rollover of last year's policy. 1. Adult rate "not to fall below 2/3 median wages" i.e. in practice this means rise in line with forecast average earnings (will have a look at the likely rate later)
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David Milliken @davidmilliken.bsky.social · 04/08/2025
I've a graphics-focused piece on UK inflation trends out this morning ahead of Thursday's Bank of England decision - when the central bank looks set to cut interest rates to 4% from 4.25% despite inflation approaching double its 2% target. Brief summary to follow (or click now for the full story)
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David Milliken @davidmilliken.bsky.social · 28/07/2025
Next week the Bank of England will publish an annual assessment of its £100 billion a year QT programme. With gilt holdings down to £558 billion from £875 billion in 2022, markets expect QT to slow - and are increasingly looking for clarity on when it might stop. www.reuters.com/world/uk/ban...
reuters.com
Bank of England poised to slow quantitative tightening after rise in yields
The Bank of England is expected to soon slow the pace at which it shrinks its 558 billion-pound ($754 billion) holdings of government bonds, and economists hope next week will shed some light on its longer-term goals for the stockpile.
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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 07/07/2025
UK firms lose taste for US investment, Deloitte survey shows www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...
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David Milliken @davidmilliken.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
What goes up goes down again. After rising 25 basis points yesterday - their biggest one-day rise since October 2022 - 30-year UK gilt yields have fallen 20 basis points this morning after Trump paused some tariffs last night.
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David Milliken @davidmilliken.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
30-year UK bond yields reached peaked at 5.649% today, their highest since May 1998. They're on track to rise 0.19 percentage points today - the sharpest jump since Truss's mini-budget. It's mostly a reaction to Trump, but also investor jitters about illiquid markets and the UK's high borrowing.
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David Milliken @davidmilliken.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
Not something you see evert day: 30-year UK government bond yields hit their highest since 1998 this morning, after an overnight selloff of US Treasuries
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Andy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
Unnerving moves in the gilt market today. This afternoon pricing quality of the 30-year gilt seems to have deteriorated (h/t @davidmilliken.bsky.social) LSEG data shows gaps, some lasting minutes (echoes of Sept 2022) Suggests worsening market functioning/bad liquidity.
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David Milliken @davidmilliken.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
A big change in Britain's bond issuance plans for the coming year: the lowest share of long-dated gilt issuance since 1990. Read more in my interview with the Jessica Pulay, head of the UK Debt Management Office www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...
reuters.com
UK bond chief hails 'important shift' away from long-dated issuance
The head of the agency that issues British government bonds said there would be an "important shift" away from long-dated debt in the coming financial year in response to rising borrowing costs and reduced investor demand.
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David Milliken @davidmilliken.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
Britain's disability benefits system leaves almost no one happy. It's expensive (by historic standards, if not internationally), gets few people back to work and appears to cause significant distress to many claimants. For more, read here: www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...
reuters.com
UK faces hard choices over soaring disability costs
Britain's government wants to tame its ballooning bill for supporting people with disabilities and long-term health conditions which, despite the cost, leaves many claimants distressed or struggling to find work.
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