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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 13h

Long story short SPX is within 1% of where it was 4 months ago. It's been in a 3% range for two months SPXEW is also within 1% of where it was 4 months ago, but it rose and then gave back a 6% gain in the interim

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 10h

The 6 month tbill is up to 4.41%. The current Fed Funds midpoint is 3.88%. That implies more than 0.5% additional Fed hikes in the next 6 months. (So if the Fed funds is 4.4% in 6 months. The 10yr spread is historically 1.5%ish. You do the math)

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George Pearkes @peark.es · 7h

Finished a project today: a regularly-updated G10 macro monitor covering central banks across the US, Eurozone, Switzerland, Norway, Sweden, UK, Japan, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. One-shot update with Python, which delights me. media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2026...

Information dense screenshot of US macro monitor

Shows inflation, core inflation, unemployment, policy rates, estimated neutral policy rate, priced rate path, FX performance, and summary of most recent policy meeting.

Information dense screenshot of Eurozone macro monitor

Shows inflation, core inflation, unemployment, policy rates, estimated neutral policy rate, priced rate path, FX performance, and summary of most recent policy meeting.

Information dense screenshot of Japan macro monitor

Shows inflation, core inflation, unemployment, policy rates, estimated neutral policy rate, priced rate path, FX performance, and summary of most recent policy meeting.

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George Pearkes @peark.es · 3h

Here’s an extremely brief effort to explain why bond yields going up is actually not bad news.

September 28, 2026
Rates. 10y yields briefly traded above 5.2% today, closing up 7 bps on the session. As shown below, they're the farthest from fair value that they've been in some time based on our qualitative model.
Bespoke 10y Yield Fair Value Model: Past Year
5.25
5.00
— 10y Yield (%)
10y Extreme Cheap
9/22/2026, First Fed
hike
4.75
4.50
10y Moderate
Cheap
4.25
4.00
10y Moderate Rich
3.75
3.50
7/25/2023, Last Fed
hike
9/18/2024, First Fed
12/10/2025, Last Fed
cut
cut
10y Extreme Rich
3.25
%
Our model assumes 2% inflation over the long term plus an inflation risk premium (35 bps, to use explicit TIPS pricing). With those values fixed, below we show the implicit growth (including risk premium around growth) forecast from the market given the consensus range of term premium (after backing out some amount off growth risk premium).
Current pricing assumes trend growth above 2% and rising.
Market-Implied Growth + Growth Risk Premium: 5.25% Is The Promised Land
10y UST Yield

Term Premium

-0.4
-0.2

0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8

1.2
1.4

3.00
1.05
0.85
0.65
0.45
0.25
0.05
-0.15
-0.35
-0.55
-0.75

3.25
1.30
1.10
0.90
0.70
0.50
0.30
0.10
-0.10
-0.30
-0.50

3.50
1.55
1.35
1.15
0.95
0.75
0.55
0.35
0.15
-0.05
-0.25

3.75
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00

4.00
2.05
1.85
1.65
1.45
1.25
1.05
0.85
0.65
0.45
0.25

4.25
2.30
2.10
1.90
1.70
1.50
1.30
1.10
0.90
0.70
0.50

4.50
2.55
2.35
2.15
1.95
1.75
1.55
1.35
1.15
0.95
0.75

4.75
2.80
2.60
2.40
2.20
2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00

5.00
3.05
2.85
2.65
2.45
2.25
2.05
1.85
1.65
1.45
1.25

5.25
3.30
3.10
2.90
2.70
2.50
2.30
2.10
1.90
1.70
1.50

5.50
3.55
3.35
3.15
2.95
2.75
2.55
2.35
2.15
1.95
1.75

5.75
3.80
3.60
3.40
3.20
3.00
2.80
2.60
2.40
2.20
2.00

6.00
4.05
3.85
3.65
3.45
3.25
3.05
2.85
2.65
2.45
2.25
Range of TP Estimates
Note: Assumes 35 bps inflation risk premium, 2% inflation. Term does not include growth or inflation risk premium.

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it’s me, aubrey plaza accord @sellingtheta.bsky.social · 15h

part of the BoA bull cause is mixing up cause and effect. it says yields reversing lower means the play is AI capex rolls on. AI capex is actually the cause here. and if it rolls on the effect is higher yields

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 9h

BTIG: “.. Are Bulls Starting to Lose the Standoff? So far neither side had been proven right, or wrong, and we remain in a standoff of weak breadth vs. strong SPX. Yet even within the SPX, over the last 5 weeks the index is dead-flat while the median stock is -4.5%.”

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 9h

BNP PARIBAS: “.. The Fed is likely hiking rates whether oil goes up, down, or sideways. .. .. pricing behavior in non-shelter core services has change versus that prior to the pandemic, and that inflation in this category has become more entrenched and momentum-driven.”

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Tom Hearden @followtheh.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

So just help me out. They said in July on a $65 bil revenue run rate (maybe heading to $100b) Gross margins indeed.

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Sam Ro @tker.co · 15h

"The S&P 500 P/E has declined this year alongside rising interest rates" - GS

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Chris Whittall @chriswhittall.bsky.social · 15h

UBS on rising cross-asset correlations

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 15h

SCHWAB: “.. The last time we had this low of a % of S&P 500 members trading above their 200d moving average, the S&P 500 was down by ~12% … today, it‘s barely off its all-time high.”

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 16h

METLIFE: “.. . Our CPI forecast is further revised up by 60 basis points to 4.0%, as the conflict in Iran continues, and oil prices, shipping and transportation costs are hit.”

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Emily Gorcenski @emily.gorcen.ski · 28/09/2026

Here’s the most incredible story you’ll read today. A small plane with four people aboard crashes in a field. Another pilot witnesses it. That pilot happens to be flying a bunch of skydivers. They offer to jump to assist, are given permission. The skydivers happen to be EMTs. Everyone survives.

wisn.com

Skydivers alert emergency crews, assist after plane crashes near East Troy airport

Four people were aboard the single-engine plane when it went down in a cornfield near Carvers School Road in East Troy at about 1:30 p.m.

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Nicholas Brown @nicholasabrown.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

(Bloomberg) - The global AI industry needs to earn $6 trillion in annual revenue by 2031 to justify the capital being deployed to build data centers around the world, Bain & Co. said.

bloomberg.com

AI Faces $6 Trillion Test to Justify Data Centers, Bain Says

The global AI industry needs to earn $6 trillion in annual revenue by 2031 to justify the capital being deployed to build data centers around the world, Bain & Co. said.

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 22h

This research examines how the demand for UST from #stablecoin issuers has grown over the past 5y and has partially offset declining demand from one of the largest foreign Govt holders, #China - chart @SFFED www.frbsf.org/research-and...

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 28/09/2026

5.54% 30s

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George Pearkes @peark.es · 29/09/2026

*ANTHROPIC TO SPEND $518B ON CLOUD, COMPUTING IN COMING YR: RTRS *ANTHROPIC SPENDING TO INCLUDE COMPUTING, INFRASTRUCTURE: RTRS

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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Seattle and Los Angeles rents are still falling but Boise and Reno are lighting up (September Apartment List data just came out):

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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Since early June, 10-year yields are up ~80bps, housing transaction activity has slumped, some AI people have said we've achieved AGI, and yet homebuilding stocks have not underperformed semiconductors. A bit interesting:

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Barchart @barchart.com · 28/09/2026

JUST IN 🚨: U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield closes at 5.56%, the highest level since August 2003 🤯 👀

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

PANTHEON: “.. We now expect headline #CPI inflation to average 3.5% in both Q3 and Q4, up from previous forecasts of 3.0% and 2.7% ..”

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Karl Hungus @l0gjammin.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

$TSMC There 20 front end Fabs in the works from TSMC NVDA is still 50% of wafer demand at TSMC Jeffries just raised 28 capex estimate to $100B

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Martin Baccardax @mdbaccardax.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

S&P 500: 1st 92 trading days of the year: +12.7% 2nd 92 trading days (after today's open): +2.6%

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

“.. % of S&P 500 members trading above their 50-day moving average down to 27% and getting close to the March low.” - Schwab

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

B of A DESK: “.. As we approach September-end, here is SPX history in years when SPX was up between +10-20% YTD at 3Q-end … and then how did SPX perform in the final 3 months of the year?”

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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

This is not the 90s part bazilion and 6--the absolute voracious consumption of resources required for the AI buildout means the GDP deflator (economy wide inflation) is running 2.75x 1999 w. equip & intellectual prop investment inflation contributing meaningfully vs the disinflation of the 90s

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Post-midterm S&P 500 returns average +23% in the following year (vs. a +15% overall average since 1952). Years where the President's party lost both chambers of Congress saw the strongest 12-month returns at +22%.

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

GS: We preliminarily forecast +0.24% for monthly core CPI in September and +0.22% in October Thereafter, we expect cooler core CPI readings (November: +0.12%, December: +0.11%)

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

GS equity breadth has plunged to a century-low... but is it just healthy sector rotation? Market breadth here is the gap between the SPX and its median stock relative to their 52-week highs. Narrow breadth means the index is much closer to its high than the typical stock.

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Bob Elliott @bobeunlimited.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Some signs the hoped for a Milei miracle is starting to face macroeconomic realities, with inflation still elevated and growth collapsing in recent months. h/t @thedailyshot

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Another fresh low in S&P 500 realized average stock correlation GS

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Whopping 45% Nasdaq 100 EPS growth expected this year but 50% for the Russell 2000 next year GS

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

The median S&P 500 stock is in a 17% drawdown off its 52wk high

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

BASMAJIAN: “.. Inflation usually ends a business cycle because it increases wage pressure and rate hikes drive up interest costs. .. Both higher wages and higher interest expense compress profit margins and that leads to layoffs and a pullback in capex.” @epbresearch.bsky.social

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

PCE inflation expected to cool to about 2% by YE 2027 GS

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

CEO pay at the top 350 U.S. firms rose 14.0% in 2025 to an average of $27.9mio CEOs made 325x as much as the typical worker in 2025. It hasn’t always been this way. In 1965, CEOs were paid 21x as much as a typical worker, chart @epi.org www.epi.org/blog/ceo-pay...

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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

"Market weakness has been modest and seasonally normal, and stocks are now entering the historically favorable Sweet Spot of the Four-Year Cycle, extending from Q4 of the midterm year through Q2 of the pre-election year." -Jeff Hirsch, Stock Trader's Almanac

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Sam Ro @tker.co · 25/09/2026

"..broad agreement across the political spectrum that the outlook for the economy has weakened.. After particularly large declines in sentiment this month, Republican sentiment is now 20% lower than January 2026; Democrats are down 13% over the same period." -UMich sentiment survey sca.isr.umich.edu

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iphawk @iphawk.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

I thought the chart below on % of stocks beating S&P500 over time frames was a good discussion on @downtownjoshbrown.bsky.social Compound podcast this week. Someone should make this into an ETF. Let me just buy the winners and ignore everything else.

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 25/09/2026

‘Every month rates stay elevated, more CCC borrowers from the 2021–22 vintages hit the refinancing wall with less cash to service their debt, and with CCC yields around 15% the bill from the cheap-money era is landing on the weakest balance sheets first.’ www.apollo.com/wealth/insig...

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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Maybe it's mostly because Berkshire Hathaway bought more Lennar, which is not the homebuilder I'd be buying here, but it's noteworthy that homebuilding stocks haven't made new lows in this recent surge in interest rates:

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

For CY 2027, analysts project earnings growth of 15.4% and revenue growth of 9.2% @factset

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Adam @adamshap.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

According to this DSGE model by Giannone and Primiceri, loose monetary policy (including monetary policy news) explains about half of high inflation over the pandemic. www.brookings.edu/wp-content/u...

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George Pearkes @peark.es · 25/09/2026

Eurozone real deposit liquidity has slowed, a possible warning sign for cyclical growth. They've diverged before, with the two upside divergences starting in 2011 (ended w/ Eurozone sovereign crisis) and 2017. The current backdrop of global cyclical acceleration suggests the latter is the right comp

Chart showing Eurozone real household + non-financial corporate deposits growth over the prior 6 months advanced six months and compared with Eurozone Manufacturing PMI

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George Pearkes @peark.es · 25/09/2026

As rates have risen, the options market has *narrowed* the distribution of outcomes (thinner tails) rather than *widening* it. This STIRs selloff is more about generic hawkishness than some sort of higher uncertainty, at least from the perspective of short-term rate options markets.

Chart showing the rate implied by FFJ7 (average Fed Funds rate for April, 2027) and the options distribution % of outcomes falling within 50 bps of the mean outcome.

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New York Fed @newyorkfed.org · 25/09/2026

Today, Jaison Abel, head of microeconomics, presented on the economic conditions in New York State at the NYBA Business of Banking Conference. View Presentation: nyfed.org/3VQVp8P

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Some 52-week lows: Nike Lowe's Clorox Hormel Pepsi Constellation Brands Molson Coors Zoetis FedEx Freight Otis Rollins L3 Harris Southern Co Sempra Energy Xcel Energy Duke Energy @cnbc.com

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

BofA: The labor market looks to be broadening Mid-sized businesses’ payroll growth was up 6.2% YoY, compared to small firms’ growth of 2.3% YoY Small business payments to hiring firms have accelerated since March 2026

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

(Bloomberg) - US manufacturers installed roughly 38,500 industrial robots in 2025, a year in which they simultaneously cut more than 100,000 human jobs. @blsuth.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

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