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Jesse Felder

@jessefelder.com
50K followers 68 following 7K posts

Founder and editor of The Felder Report: thefelderreport.com

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 15m
Bill Gross: ‘Uneven balance sheet growth through taking on more debt has led to growth now, but likely lower later. Likewise, it has led to higher inflation now with little future respite absent global containment in fiscal/debt markets.’ www.ft.com/content/c05f...
ft.com
Don’t own bonds and be cautious with stocks
Balance sheets have become unbalanced and growth in turn may suffer the consequences
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 21m
“We don’t think enough people are talking about the potential volatility if AI growth slows. This is multiples on trillions of dollars of market value. The knock-on effects across the broader markets could be very meaningful.” www.ft.com/content/3344...
ft.com
KKR warns of growing credit market risks from AI borrowing spree
Investment firm wary of risks of ‘overexposure’ and ‘concentration’ and predicts broader volatility if there is a downturn in booming sector
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 23m
‘Almost half of those polled expect diesel prices will take more than four quarters to return to 2025 levels, according to the anonymous survey of 100 oil and gas companies.’ www.ft.com/content/0d74...
ft.com
US oil industry warns diesel prices will not return to normal for a year
Dallas Fed survey finds energy executives believe high cost of fuel will persist
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 27m
‘South Korea was the world’s worst-performing stock market in the third quarter following a sell-off in July as investors fretted over AI chipmakers’ prospects.’ www.ft.com/content/7fb7...
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 33m
‘Wall Street had a blockbuster second quarter. Big banks are cautioning that the sequel won’t compare.’ www.wsj.com/finance/bank...
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 36m
‘The bottom half’s share of total wealth, at an average of about $63,000 a household, comes to just 2.3% of the nation’s total wealth. The average household in the top 0.1% holds over 3,000 times as much wealth as a bottom-half household does.’ www.wsj.com/economy/the-...
wsj.com
The Gap Between the Rich and the Very, Very Rich Is Getting Wider
The 0.1% are worth $28 trillion, or about 15% of the nation’s total wealth. The average wealth for a household in this group is over $200 million.
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 48m
‘Talk of a second euro-zone crisis, this time with an epicenter in Paris, is growing, and it’s easy to see why.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social
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Bob Elliott @bobeunlimited.bsky.social · 1h
Annual revisions lifted the savings rate level, but the sharp downward trajectory remains. Despite all the noise about AI, the biggest driver of strong US growth over the last 2.5yrs has come from household's spending growing much faster than their incomes.
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 1h
‘If the profit share doesn’t revert to the mean of around 6% sometime soon, we’re bound to see more calls for unionization and lifting the minimum wage, as well as political backlash against corporations in the form of higher corporate taxes and antitrust measures.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 1h
'The moves reflect an industry that’s filtering out the weakest players. To survive, newer AI cloud companies have to lean on the financial heft of deep-pocketed tech giants. They have no choice.' www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
AI Upstarts Pressured to Get Big-Tech Backstops for Data Centers
CBRE Group Inc. executives have a warning for artificial-intelligence upstarts hunting for data centers: Find a serious partner to guarantee lease payments or face an uphill battle securing new sites.
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 2h
‘The implicit assumption behind “affordability” is that the problem is high prices. In contrast, “abundance” recognizes that high prices are a symptom, either of scarcity or of excess demand. The two approaches lead to very different solutions.’ rogerlowenstein.substack.com/p/an-abundan...
rogerlowenstein.substack.com
An “Abundance” Strategy for Democrats
Still there for the taking
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 3h
‘Data from Anthropic’s draft IPO prospectus have renewed investor attention to the size of its financial commitments and other risks it faces. Similar skepticism is building among IPO investors about a slate of data center companies preparing to go public.‘ www.theinformation.com/articles/wal...
theinformation.com
Wall Street and Silicon Valley Split Over AI’s Price Tag
Shifting economic forces are driving a widening divide between the financial views of Silicon Valley and Wall Street, clouding the outlook for trillions of dollars invested in AI. Stock market angst h...
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 4h
‘Hyperscalers' YTD net issuance exceeded annual net supply by major developed economies.’ www.dailychartbook.com/p/if-the-10-...
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 4h
“For the month of September, equity ETFs are averaging about $3bn per day. That is meaningfully down from the over $7bn that we saw earlier in the summer.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/if-the-10-...
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Luke Kawa @ljkawa.bsky.social · 8h
RECORD RETAIL PURCHASES Five-day net purchases of single stocks by Robinhood traders just hit a fresh record, taking out their prior June peak. Last Wednesday’s and Monday’s selloffs were especially heavily bought. Wediditjoe.gif
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Rory Johnston @roryjohnston.bsky.social · 4h
Crude down on the week but diesel ripping back to fresh all-time highs. Now at ~$228/bbl in New York Harbor, outstripping the prior all-time set two weeks ago.
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 19h
'We all know at this point that investors have been shunning longer-term US Treasuries (or more precisely, demanding a higher yield to hold them). Now it looks like they’re doing something similar at the short-end.' www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 21h
'Four companies in different sectors, all aiming to raise at least $50 million, announced postponements or pulled their IPOs altogether in the past week. That makes seven in the third quarter, up from four in the second quarter and three in the first.' www.cnbc.com/2026/09/29/i...
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 29/09/2026
‘The latest fundraise is meant to serve as a bridge round to provide OpenAI with additional capital in place of an IPO. OpenAI most recently raised $122 billion in March at a $852 billion valuation, including the money.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
OpenAI Targets $30 Billion in New Funding at $1.4 Trillion Value
OpenAI aims to raise at least $30 billion from investors in a new round of funding, according to people familiar with the matter, after the artificial intelligence startup pushed back its plans for an...
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 29/09/2026
‘Independent security researchers said they found bugs in recent months that allowed them to view the internal communications of OpenAI employees, the company’s internal computer code and view the chat logs of ChatGPT users.‘ www.nytimes.com/2026/09/29/t...
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 29/09/2026
‘Big capex booms are rare, with only two since World War Two comparable to this one: the late 1980s and mid-2000s. They tend to be multi-year events, averaging about three years. This one is shaping up to be the largest.’ www.reuters.com/commentary/r...
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 29/09/2026
‘On Monday, Meta‘s Beignet bonds traded at 91 cents on the dollar, pushing the ⁠yield as high as 7.55%. That's around 230 basis points above Treasuries, a wider spread than the 185 bps at launch, but narrower than the record-wide 255 bps in July.’ www.reuters.com/commentary/r...
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 29/09/2026
‘The discussions illustrate how the world’s most valuable co. is experimenting with structures across Wall Street, private cap. and now the insurance sector to help expand the range of customers who can buy its chips. “Nvidia is trying to will the market to participate.”’ www.ft.com/content/d6a9...
ft.com
Nvidia turns to insurers to spread the risk of AI build-out
World’s largest listed company looks for new ways to draw Wall Street deeper into the financing of the AI boom
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 29/09/2026
Sheila Blair: ‘With its September rate decision, the Fed is correcting for its past misjudgments. In 2022, it was too hesitant to raise rates, despite persistent inflation, and in 2024, it was too quick to lower them with inflation still above target.’ www.ft.com/content/4339...
ft.com
For once, the Fed has put Main Street before Wall Street
Rather than criticising the central bank’s rate increase, Republicans should be praising Warsh for putting American families first
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Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 29/09/2026
Per Reuters, Anthropic has $252 billion in non-cancelable compute obligations across Microsoft, Google and Amazon, and $161.2 billion in Broadcom TPU lease obligations that are "largely non-cancelable". Truly insane. $413 billion in non-cancelable contracts. www.reuters.com/business/ant...
The company said it plans to spend at least $111.1 billion with Alphabet's (GOOGL.O), opens new tab Google, $110 billion ​with Amazon (AMZN.O), opens new tab and $31.4 billion with Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab under long-term infrastructure service obligations over the next seven to 10 years "regardless of ⁠usage."
Anthropic is separately carrying about $161.2 billion of Broadcom (AVGO.O), opens new tab-related equipment lease obligations that are largely non-cancelable, according to the prospectus. Anthropic filed for an ​IPO confidentially with the Securities and Exchange Commission in June but its paperwork has not been publicly disclosed.
Anthropic did not immediately respond to a request ​for comment about the filing.
The company said it committed to pay Google between April 2026 and July 2033 and Amazon between May 2026 and April 2036.
"If our actual spend falls short, we must pay Google the difference," the company said, adding that similar terms apply to its Amazon agreement.
It added its commitment with Microsoft of $31.4 billion ​between November 2026 and May 2033 "is non-cancelable except in the event of Microsoft's uncured material breach."
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 29/09/2026
‘GPT-6.1 Astra regressed in two areas: The model showed higher levels of deception. It wasn’t always honest about telling users of the actions it did or didn’t take. It would also push ahead on a task without asking for permission even if it might be unsafe.’ www.wsj.com/tech/ai/open...
wsj.com
Exclusive | OpenAI Scraps Release of New AI Model Over Safety Concerns
The model was due to debut inside ChatGPT and Codex in October.
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 29/09/2026
‘Oura is the highest profile firm to date to delay its offering in the US. Nuclear power services firm Holtec and CVC Capital Partners-backed Bamboo Insurance Services both postponed their IPOs in recent days, citing market conditions.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 29/09/2026
‘The rolling 10-year annualized total returns of the S&P 500 minus the return from a Treasury portfolio are almost as high as they’ve been in history.’ www.cnbc.com/2026/09/29/i... by @michaelsantoli.bsky.social
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 29/09/2026
‘Tech giants like Amazon and Google hold huge stakes in Anthropic, which sit on their balance sheets at high valuations. If Anthropic delays its debut or prices at a discount, it sets off a cascading mark-to-market event.’ www.nytimes.com/2026/09/29/b...
nytimes.com
What’s In Anthropic’s I.P.O. Filing
The artificial intelligence giant reportedly believes that it’s on track for a record-breaking stock market listing, according to a prospectus seen by Reuters.
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 29/09/2026
‘Some of Nscale’s contracts have provisions allowing customers to walk away if the company is late in delivering compute. Those include its deal with Anthropic—which accounts for nearly half its contracted revenue and yet it hasn’t even lined up the financing.’ www.theinformation.com/articles/nsc...
theinformation.com
How Nscale’s Unbuilt Data Centers Undercut Its $35 Billion IPO Pitch
AI chip rental business Nscale, which has filed paperwork indicating its plan to go public, is a puny, relatively new entrant in the neocloud race. At first blush, it looks to hold a lot of promise, p...
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 29/09/2026
‘Even Nvidia’s buyback, the largest in history, falls short of the percentage payout of many blue-chip companies. Tech stocks overall had below-average buyback yields and also the lowest dividend yield of any sector.’ www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 29/09/2026
‘Implied volatility and the premium for bearish puts on TLT have jumped to the highest since late March as investors pay up for protection against — or for wagers on — higher yields.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 29/09/2026
‘Either tech's customers will generate a lot more cash than their analysts expect, or tech's cash flow forecasts are too optimistic, which raises the question of who exactly will be writing all those checks to buy AI services.’ www.apollo.com/wealth/insig...
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 29/09/2026
‘A crisis always starts in the most vulnerable places and spreads from there. That’s what’s happening now.’ robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-a-glob... by @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 29/09/2026
‘”While the constant rotation has kept us from seeing a correlation-one selloff, we continue to think the clock is ticking, and we see one sooner than later,” says Krinsky.’ www.marketwatch.com/story/the-hi...
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 29/09/2026
’The bearish divergence in the high yield credit market that we pointed out not long ago has pretty much fallen off a cliff. Rising interest rates are the obvious culprit causing traders to sell more bonds than they’re buying.‘ vixology.substack.com/p/the-weight
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Peter Thal Larsen @petertl.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
"While public companies routinely outline product risks to investors, few, if ​any, have issued warnings suggesting their technology could cause potential human extinction." www.reuters.com/business/fin...
reuters.com
EXCLUSIVE: Anthropic warns AI may pose 'existential risks to humanity' in IPO filing
It's an extraordinary warning by a company seeking to profit from the same technology.
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Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 29/09/2026
Reuters got some of the IPO docs. Anthropic is a total dog of a company. Spent $12.6bn to make $4.6bn in revenue in 2025, $7.33bn of which was compute costs. Operating loss of $8bn. Losses getting worse year over year. Amazing stuff www.reuters.com/business/fin...
Summary
Companies
• Anthropic IPO could value the company at more than $2
trillion
• Anthropic lost $42 billion in 2025
• Al lab spent $7.33 billion on compute and infrastructure last year
• Operating loss widened to $8.06 billion in 2025 from $2.98 billion in 2024
• Execs, industry analysts have expressed concerns over harms of Al tech
Sept 28 (Reuters) - Anthropic is making a massive bet that Al will transform the global economy more profoundly than industrialization, electricity and the internet, according to its IPO prospectus seen by Reuters.
But the cost to get there will be staggering. Anthropic reported a net loss of $42 billion in 2025, and plans to spend $518 billion on cloud, computing and infrastructure obligations in coming year, according to the
prospectus.
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Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · 28/09/2026
Cannot insist you listen to this enough, this conversation condenses everything going on with AI and its wider economic effects tightly. One of the best in the show’s history.
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 28/09/2026
‘For a moment, it might’ve looked like a story of left-wing politicians finding a new private sector punching bag. But today, it was announced that Florida’s Republican Attorney General James Uthmeier filed a preliminary injunction motion against OpenAI.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 28/09/2026
‘Over the last few weeks, speculators’ position in Nasdaq futures, based on Commitment of Traders data, has transmuted from net short to the largest net long since 2017 (latest data as of last Tuesday).’ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 28/09/2026
‘Q2 equity issuance was the second highest on record relative to GDP, trailing just the first quarter of 2000.‘ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 28/09/2026
‘Can the US grow its way out of debt? Don't bet on it. The problem isn't growth. It's the tax structure.‘ www.reuters.com/commentary/r...
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 28/09/2026
‘Revenues would need to be between $2.4T (break even) and $3.8T (to match the return on their existing businesses) over the next six years. This is equivalent to their current incremental AI revenues increasing between 13-45 times in just six years.’ econjared.substack.com/p/ai-compani...
econjared.substack.com
AI Companies Are In a Race Against Time
They may disemploy us; they may wipe us out. But right now, their lack of profitability underscores our bubble case.
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 28/09/2026
‘The total market for NAV lending is around $150bn, according to research by Fund Finance Partners, with an average deal size of about $150mn. Ten years ago, “the term ‘NAV lending’ [for individuals] didn’t exist.”’ www.ft.com/content/4838...
ft.com
Rich turn to borrowing against private equity holdings as payouts slow
Wealthy individuals follow pension funds and institutional investors into NAV lending
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 28/09/2026
GS: “Based on average annual capex in 2026 and 2027, our equity analysts estimate that the hyperscalers need to generate annual AI revenues of roughly $300 billion in the next few years to break even on their investments.“ www.ft.com/content/f83b...
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 28/09/2026
‘Tariffs raised the cost of imported goods. The war with Iran sent diesel prices soaring. Immigration restrictions shrank the labor force. Add tax cuts, new spending and pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates and all 6 of those policies move inflation up, not down.‘ www.wsj.com/economy/trum...
wsj.com
The Moves That Backfired on Trump and Drove Interest Rates and Inflation Higher
The president’s own agenda has helped undermine promises to fix the economy and get the deficit under control.
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 28/09/2026
‘What makes the Trump administration’s debt management downright perplexing — instead of just plain irresponsible — is that it was paired with a suite of macroeconomic policies that all but guaranteed a rise in inflation and bond yields.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
Warsh’s Credibility Boost Is Bessent’s Comeuppance
The stunning rise in US borrowing costs has been attributed to a panoply of factors, both bad and good, including warm inflation, persistently large budget deficits and even strong economic growth, wh...
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 28/09/2026
‘A surge of corporate bond supply in the US high-yield market is starting to overwhelm debt investors, pushing risk premiums to the highest level in five months, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s head of credit strategy.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 28/09/2026
‘“At the moment you’ve almost got two credit markets, the AI-related issuers and everyone else,” says Andy Chorlton, CIO for fixed income at M&G. But he is concerned that, over time, borrowing costs for all high-grade corporate issuers will be dragged higher.‘ www.ft.com/content/00f9...
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