Corporate profits more than doubled as a share of GDP while household income held up. The national accounts show why old profit-margin averages can be misleading.

The stock market keeps setting records, but most Americans don't feel any richer. One number explains the gap, and the AI boom is making it worse.

The stock market keeps setting records, but most Americans don't feel any richer. One number explains the gap, and the AI boom is making it worse.

Companies compete for a share of the existing profit pool. But a separate set of economic forces determines how large that pool becomes.

The market is better at calling the end of a recession than the beginning. Here's the part of the economy that actually leads the cycle, and how to track it.

Why conventional analysis fails — and the three sectors you should actually be watching.

US corporate margins just hit an all-time high while the typical worker's income slips below trend. The two are connected, and the reason isn't what most people think.

Why conventional analysis fails — and the three sectors you should actually be watching.

Housing was stabilizing for the first time in three years. Then the war reignited inflation and pulled the one variable holding the recovery together. Here's where the sequence stands.

Housing was stabilizing for the first time in three years. Then the war reignited inflation and pulled the one variable holding the recovery together. Here's where the sequence stands.

Most analysts watch total consumer spending and see stability. Break it down by cyclicality and the picture looks completely different.

The Hidden Link Between Government Size, Vanishing Net Investment, and Stagnant Real Incomes

Strip out AI investment and the case for rate cuts becomes difficult to ignore. Key cyclical sectors are still struggling.

YouTube video by EPB Research

Not all economic indicators are created equal. Here are the best (and worst) for recession forecasting.

Leading indicators declined for three years with no recession - here is what actually happened.

The Hidden Link Between Government Size, Vanishing Net Investment, and Stagnant Real Incomes

Why conventional analysis fails — and the three sectors you should actually be watching.