iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

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20% of Families have fallen behind on loan payments, the highest level since the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis 🚨🚨

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 22h

Higher US Treasury yields make bonds look more appealing for portfolios, but whether investors should increase their bond allocations depends on their time horizons, chart #GoldmanSachs

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 9h

GOLDMAN DESK: “.. we currently have the perfect recipe for the S&P 500 to pierce through 8k in short order: robust corporate demand, negative investor sentiment, low net HF exposure, potential for supercap IPOs .. and what should be another stellar earnings season kicking off this week ..”

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David Wessel @davidmwessel.bsky.social · 15h

@wsj.com asks 55 Wall Street & busines economists to grade Kevin Warsh's performance as Fed chair -- so far. Modal grade is a B but more than a third say it's too soon to tell. www.wsj.com/finance/inve...

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Mark Ungewitter @mark-ungewitter.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Nothing unhealthy about October's breadth momentum.

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Mark Ungewitter @mark-ungewitter.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

Nothing unhealthy about SPX price structure. Favoring upside resolution given constructive seasonality and proximity to April’s thrust, while adopting tight stops in recognition of today's price/breadth anomaly.

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 10/10/2026

‘The late-1990s IT investment boom shows how productivity can accelerate. The next productivity boom may come from AI, which may already be chipping away at the bargaining power of workers. The decline in workers’ share is one trend no one wants AI to accelerate.‘ www.ft.com/content/abaa...

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Librarian Capital @librariancapital.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

Michael Mauboussin, "expectations investing" guru: "The stock market is “positive-sum”. Stocks represent partial ownership in businesses that generally create wealth by growing profits. Investing is zero-sum only in a relative sense ... Underperforming the market need not mean losing money"

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

S&P 500 sector valuations... Staples > Tech GS

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

$QQQ +195% last four years $SPY +129% $MDY +72% $IWM +76% $VEU +112% $GLD +151%

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$SPY @ammar814.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

@nicholasabrown.bsky.social is a must follow. Helps me stay updated with mkts!

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

The S&P 500 has delivered positive returns in the 12 months following every #midterm election, with an average gain of about 15%, chart Jordan Jackson #JPMorganAM

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

BLUEKURTIC: “.. $NVDA insiders sold over $967 million worth of shares in September, the highest ever on record.”

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

JPMORGAN: “.. the drop in the personal saving rate since 2023 does not reflect a slowing in the pace of asset accumulation but rather a rise in the pace of liability accumulation .. .. the pace of increase in liabilities has jumped nearly 2%-points over the past 2.5 years.” 👀

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

RBADVISERS: “.. While Wall Street and the Fed continue to use inertial breakevens to convince themselves that inflation is temporary, secular inflation expectations continue to accelerate and embed in the economy.”

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

PARCL LABS: “.. As of this morning, in these 6 states, over 6% of everything for sale today is originating from home owners underwater on their mortgage. Nationally, this rate is 4.9%. Florida leads at 8.9% Texas: 7.8% Colorado: 7.5% Lousiana: 7.1% Arizona: 6.1% Utah: 6%”

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 09/10/2026

‘Median wealth for a family in the top 10% of earners increased 31%, while wealth decreased for the bottom 40% of earners.’ www.wsj.com/economy/affl...

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Cembalest JPMAM: Only 30% of S&P 500 constituents are outperforming the index, among the lowest shares since 1991. @soberlook thedailyshot.com/sub...

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Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

"U.S. Budget Deficit Jumps to Nearly $2 Trillion" www.wsj.com/politics/pol... "budget experts expect the deficit to surpass 6% of GDP, compared with 5.8% in fiscal 2025." Silver lining from @djheakin: "They could have blown it up worse, and they wanted to, some of them" 😭

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Mr Market Miscalculates 🇪🇺🇺🇦🏴‍☠️ @mrmarketmis.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Seven years later, $MS with a very close second place

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Mr Market Miscalculates 🇪🇺🇺🇦🏴‍☠️ @mrmarketmis.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Let's celebrate the 25th anniversary of the GOAT sell-side research report!

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

BTIG: “.. The S&P 1500 Homebuilder Index now has zero names above their 20 and 200 DMAs. Since 2002, average and median 20-day returns off this signal have been +5.87% and +6.44%, respectively.” $ITB

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 08/10/2026

‘A 5% level of rates would need 6% GDP gains, after adjusting for inflation. Nominal GDP would need to have sustained increases of 7% to 8% “to keep the debt ratio stable. It’s pretty challenging.”’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

bloomberg.com

CBO Chief Warns Growth Solution for US Debt Is Unlikely to Work

Congressional Budget Office Director Phillip Swagel warned the idea of embracing faster economic growth as the solution for reining in the US federal debt — one being championed by Treasury Secretary ...

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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 08/10/2026

‘If AI doesn’t deliver on its promise then we face a double blow to growth: because AI didn’t expand our productive capacity as hoped, and because other investments which might have didn’t take place.’ www.ft.com/content/bf40...

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

From @JessicaMenton On Wednesday, the S&P 500 Index’s streak without a 1% decline reached 49 sessions, its longest stretch since July 2024 $SPY

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Steve Rattner @steverattner.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Real wage growth was negative for the fifth month in a row in August.

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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

"Very, very few households we just surveyed are interested in buying a home at 7.5% mortgage rates. Only time will tell if/when this housing logjam starts to break." -Rick Palacios Jr., John Burns

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it’s me, aubrey plaza accord @sellingtheta.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

the largest VIX options trade was actually a 100,000 lot buyer of the October 16 *puts* so someone else thought the strength their was weird today, and they are playing for a crash down to spot in 2 weeks

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 07/10/2026

With the Kim-Wright term premium measure surging above 100 bps, you are handsomely rewarded buying 10s. Auction "should" go well

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Nicholas Brown @nicholasabrown.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

RBAdvisors: “.. We believe inflation is much more than simply energy prices but recent inflation expectations are clearly being driven largely by gasoline prices.”

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Michael Derby @michaelsderby.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Sept. Fed minutes: "A few participants observed that Treasury markets had been functioning smoothly but noted the importance of planning for market stress. They suggested strengthening" the Fed's ability to respond "while limiting the Federal Reserve's footprint in the Treasury market."

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Sam Ro @tker.co · 07/10/2026

"This is the highest reading for the one-year-ahead inflation expectations since May 2023."

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Bond market testing Warsh — like it tested Greenspan? 👀 (via DRW)

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Steve Rattner @steverattner.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Corporate profits and tax revenues grew together until the Trump tax cuts. Now corporate profits are at an all-time high while tax receipts are at their lowest since 2021.

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

What a chart from LPL: “.. the widening gap between prevailing mortgage rates and the effective rates existing homeowners are paying .. Many owners are sitting on cheap loans and have little incentive to give them up. That lock-in effect keeps the resale market starved of inventory ..”

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Savita BofA.. Value Traps: Apparel & Luxury, Residential/Retail/Specialized REITs.

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Koyfin @koyfin.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

After a period where Hermès had drawn-down to a lesser extent than its peer, LVMH, the two luxury giants are now both down ~54% from prior highs. $RMS $MC

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

The biggest 10 US stocks command 41% of the S&P 500.. but that's close to their TTM and NTM EPS share. Nothing to worry about! @soberlook thedailyshot.com/sub...

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

BARCLAYS: “.. Chips & memory are <30% of the S&P 500 today yet make up 70%+ of aggregate EPS revisions and growth estimates in FY27.”

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$SPY @ammar814.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Thats 8 months, correct?

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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

$KBE $XLF... lots of insider selling among banks @WSJ @soberlook thedailyshot.com/sub...

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Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Postings for human resources (incl recruiting roles) zooming ahead, at the current rate will be back at pre-pandemic levels by Thanksgiving

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$SPY @ammar814.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Combined mkt cap of these 9 stocks is nearly 90% of US GDP. Wild stuff

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$SPY @ammar814.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Aggressively well-dressed

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

SENTIMENTRADER: “.. S&P 500 closed at a record high. With twice as many lows as highs on the NYSE. Here's every date the S&P closed at a record and the NYSE low/high ratio was > 2: 6/22/29...2.1 12/3/99...2.0 12/21/99...4.2 12/22/99...4.1 12/23/99...2.3 12/29/99...2.4 10/6/26...2.6”

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it’s me, aubrey plaza accord @sellingtheta.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Nov VX is too low. it’s only giving spot 2.6 premium with still 6 weeks until settlement and the election coming up (and a likely dem sweep may cause Trump to do something crazy) when Sep VX was 6 weeks out from settlement it was 3.75 vols over spot.

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it’s me, aubrey plaza accord @sellingtheta.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

but theta! didn’t volmageddon happen in early 2018? yes! but guess what happened first? on Jan 30 VX inverted in the 14s *2* days after SPX made an all-time. Vols will let you know (also shoutout to Joe. miss those posts)

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

“.. two things really stand out here. One is that the US pays a lot more to borrow money these days than China.” @weisenthal.bsky.social @bloomberg.com

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

“.. Distressed leveraged loans … a nearly 90% jump over the past 12 months ..” @bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

MERCX: “.. The chart shows the spread between Dated Brent (“I need oil now”) and Brent futures (“November delivery is fine”). Buyers who cannot wait are now paying more than $30 per barrel extra, close to the record seen just after the war began.”

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