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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 55m

Apollo with an interesting point. The "breakeven rate" for job growth has fallen, since the labor pool is not really growing. (Breakeven is the number of jobs that need to be added to keep unemployment rate steady.)

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 1h

A not-so-subtle reminder, memory is a commodity! Micron, Sandisk, Seagate ... all these stocks are just a function of the supply/demand outlook.

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Reposted by Lou Mannheim

vegavandal.bsky.social @vegavandal.bsky.social · 2h

The way to deal with malignant narcissists is to starve them of attention. Drama is their oxygen. I wish more people could internalize that.

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 2h

2y and 10y yields are now UP today. Nothing matters.

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 2h

Futures market expects only ~10% chance of October rate increase now.

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 3h

GS: no rate hike in October, even before today's soft payrolls

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 5h

Yields 8:25am (pre-payrolls)

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 5h

Equal-weight S&P 500 (left). S&P largest 20 mkt caps (right) ... That's interesting.

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Banks having a tough go recently. $BAC coming up on 11x PE. That's a floor for its multiple recently. Let's see if it holds.

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Goldman says Gulf oil supply is fixed. But Brent still at $99. So ... 🤷‍♂️

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Tom Hearden @followtheh.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Where have I seen this look before. Oh yes

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Here's a lesson that took me a long time of professional investing to learn: Do not buy stocks where the technicals are bad. Just... dont. $FICO

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Michael Santoli @michaelsantoli.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Cleveland Guardians, with the fourth-best AL record, gets a first-round bye, will play the winner of a series between teams that together were 165-159. The three best teams will fight for one ALCS slot. America in 2026: policy subsidizing heartland mediocrity at the expense of coastal meritocracy.

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

If this is a bubble, it's not in the "P". It might be the "E"

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

"The entirety of every SEC filing that goes out there giving me real-time ROIC" ...? Does he mean the 10q's? This comment shook me a little bit. How much else of what these CEOs say is just exaggerated bullshit?

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Historic bond yields vs 3m tbill... This spike in rates is just term premium reverting to history. There's probably more to come.

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The Wall Street Journal @wsj.com · 24/09/2026

The AI build-out is on track to become the biggest economic bet in U.S. history, dwarfing the investments made to fund other huge U.S. infrastructure projects such as the railroads, the highway system and the plumbing for the internet.

on.wsj.com

The AI Build-Out Is Becoming the Biggest Economic Bet in U.S. History

Data-center spending is greater than that for canals, railroads, and grid combined—creating jobs and stock-market wealth, while boosting inflation and crowding out housing.

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Maybe the bond yields rising is just normalization of term premium. The purple line below is 3m tbill (basically Fed Funds). Then the 5y and 10y yields. Maybe we're just reverting to the mean in term premium? Why take duration risk if you dont have to?

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Pretty weak 5yr UST auction. I guess that's contributing to the pain.

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Interesting chart. Nvidia chip costs keep rising, even tho AI token costs keep falling.

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Lots of chattel on Twitter about a European alert of a Russian attack. Interesting thread here if anyone still visits that place.

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

Hatzius at GS saying AI investment adds only 0.1% to GDP growth. That's lower than the 0.4-0.5% I've read elsewhere. $GS

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

People hate data centers. But they love the earnings growth. Be consistent, folks!

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

The Midwest bearing the brunt of recent gas-price increases. (via @gasbuddyguy.bsky.social) ⛽️

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Exxon Joliet refinery went down. Another negative for diesel

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Anyone else wondering if 20yrs of private equity outperformance was just a low interest rate shell game?

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Fed statement: "economy is strong, but inflation needs to come down." Thats it.

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Barchart @barchart.com · 15/09/2026

JP Morgan's Trading Gameplan for tomorrow's rate decision 🚨 🚨

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Fed debate simplified: Unemployment is stable and low. Core PCE inflation is above target and rising. That's it. That's all you need to know.

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Good chart for my Econ nerds. Real GDP growth recently has been driven almost entirely by productivity growth. You can really see the lack of new job creation here.

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

IMHO, only a few Wall Street axioms stand the test of time. One of them is: "dont fight the Fed". Wednesday is gonna be a big day.

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

For some reason, the red X's really hammer the point home. ... Btw, interesting article in NYT today about the various factions in Iran. No one really knows who controls the missiles being fired into the Strait.

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

If you can ignore the cult worship, this is a terrific breakdown of the economic impact from higher diesel costs on a real small business.

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

Fed Funds rate since the 1950s. So, the correct neutral rate is somewhere in there. No problem.

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

WSJ today talks about the OpenAI attack on "RubyGems". Did everyone read the PTJ op-ed on AI regulation? I generally support free markets. But would some guard rails really be the worst thing? www.wsj.com/opinion/ai-m...

wsj.com

Opinion | AI May Become the Third Superpower

The threat to mankind is real, and Trump and Xi need to develop a shared strategy to confront it.

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Will higher rates affect this at all? Honestly... not sure

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Futures now pricing 81% chance of rate hike next week. (Using AI to explain everything now...)

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