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Daily Chartbook

@dailychartbook.bsky.social
1.5K followers 201 following 2.1K posts

I look at hundreds of charts every day. After the closing bell, I curate the best ones and send them to investors. Subscribe to be one of them (it's free): dailychartbook.com

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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 10h
"If we look back at the last 40 years, it is notable that the 5 most recent US expansions all rank in the top 7 longest expansions since business-cycle dating began." -Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 11h
"Per the Fed model below ... if the 10-year yield rises to 6%, that suggests an equity P/E ratio of 16x. It is currently 19-20x. A 4-point drop in the P/E ratio is a 20% valuation haircut, but if it's offset by 30% earnings growth" -Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 11h
"I'm not seeing many new lows in Tech and Financials. In fact, I'm seeing almost none." -Matt Cerminaro, Chart Kid Matt
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 12h
"For the month of September, equity ETFs are averaging about $3bn per day. That is meaningfully down from the over $7bn that we saw earlier in the summer" -Todd Sohn, Strategas
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 12h
"In the first eight sessions since the Fed rate hike, utilities, gold, silver, and the Bloomberg Spot Commodity Index have posted their worst performance on record when compared with every tightening cycle since 1973." -Turning Point Market Research
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 13h
"Labor differential-share of consumers saying jobs are 'plentiful' minus share saying jobs are 'hard to get'-is at narrowest in more than five years" -Liz Ann Sonders, Schwab
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 20h
5 of Tuesday's best charts and insights:
dailychartbook.com
"If the 10-year yield rises to 6%, that suggests an equity P/E ratio of 16x"
DC Lite #693 | Labor market differential, asset performance vs. first hike, equity ETF flows, new lows absent in Tech and Financials, bond vs. equity valuations
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
"The growth of websites made by AI has been noticeable since 2023. Now every third webpage created has some part attributable to AI." -Exponential View
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
"The outbreak of war in the Middle East and the resulting surge in energy prices have prompted a hawkish shift among many of the world's major central banks" -Ned Davis Research
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
"At his June and July press conferences, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh followed the same pattern as previous Fed chairs, but in September, he took fewer questions and gave shorter, more focused answers, letting the rate hike speak more for itself." -Torsten Slok, Apollo
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
"Using PMI data dating back to January 2010, our regression model estimates that the Global Composite PMI could rise to roughly 54.6 this month. If realized, that would mark its highest level since November 2021 and extend the momentum already visible through the summer." -JPM
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
"Over the last 90 years, the S&P 500 has produced an average return of 17% in the 12 months following midterm elections." Goldman Sachs via Mike Zaccardi
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Last week, "21 of the 28 net new lows came from Utilities, Staples, and Real Estate ... So yes, breadth stinks. But where it stinks matters. Or, as our friend Larry Thompson recently put it best: If breadth is bad, don't own breadth!" -Duality Research
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
"US Pensions are modeled to SELL $33bn of US equities. $33bn to sell ranks in the 97th percentile amongst all buy and sell estimates in absolute dollar value over the past three years. 33bn ranks in the 98th percentile going back to Jan 2000." -Cullen Morgan, Goldman Sachs
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
"Sentiment in the equity market remains remarkably constructive despite sharply rising bond yields ... SPX 1M skew is trading in the 5th percentile low currently as investors rotate out of hedges and into upside calls." -Mandy Xu, Cboe
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
"We don't need to go all the way back to the GFC to notice that this kind of divergence can be a harbinger of bad times for equity markets." -Jim Carroll, Vixology
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
5 of Monday's best charts and insights:
dailychartbook.com
"About 40% of the top 100 stocks are trading with inverted call skew"
DC Lite #692 | High Yield Cumulative Advance-Decline Line, SPX hedging demand, US pension estimates, S&P 500 highs vs. lows, S&P 500 after midterm elections
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
"At the end of June, when the 10-year hit its most recent bottom, consensus forecasts for third-quarter growth sat at 1.9%. Now, with the quarter nearly over, economists project the U.S. economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.8%." -Josh Schafer, Barron's
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
"Markets have begun to accept the idea that getting inflation down to 2% will require tighter monetary policy, which means higher interest rates." -Brian Nick, NewEdge Wealth
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
"If every household used AI agents to optimize the return on their cash balances, banks could lose a large share of the cheap deposits they rely on to make loans, which would be a problem for the entire financial system." -Torsten Slok, Apollo
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
"Baby Boomers currently account for 53.0% of total US household net worth. Together with the Silent Generation, they account for 64.0% of household net worth." -Yardeni
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
"Publicly traded companies represent a tiny share of the total number of companies producing crude oil and natural gas in the United States, but they make up a large share of U.S. production." -EIA
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
"Fiscal deficits since 2020 now total over $14 trillion - over a period when the unemployment rate has averaged only 4.7%" -Simon White, BBG
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
"Spending on AI infrastructure by the five largest US hyperscalers is set to increase by more than half next year to $1.2 trillion, according to strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc." -Bloomberg
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
"Where would 10-year yields be if the bond market were actually worried about inflation?" -Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
5 of Friday's best charts and insights:
dailychartbook.com
"Memory stocks currently trade at a 2-year forward P/E of 4x"
DC Lite #691 | Global oil stocks, US equities seasonality, Defensives relative underperformance, Memory stock valuations, forecasting AI is hard
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
"When asked in September 2025, the best superforecasters put the chance of AI resolving a Millennium Problem by September 2026 at 1.7% and (the more optimistic) industry expert put the chance at 4.6%. They also greatly underestimated AI Lab revenue." -Ethan Mollick
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
"Memory stocks currently trade at a 2-year forward P/E of 4x" GS via Mike Zaccardi
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
"Consumer staples and utilities are two of the most defensive areas of the stock market ... When investors get scared, they often hide in these groups. Nobody's hiding there right now." -JC Parets, TrendLabs
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
"Market weakness has been modest and seasonally normal, and stocks are now entering the historically favorable Sweet Spot of the Four-Year Cycle, extending from Q4 of the midterm year through Q2 of the pre-election year." -Jeff Hirsch, Stock Trader's Almanac
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
"The world has kept itself supplied with fuel through six months of disruption by drawing on the oil it had already stored, and the scale of that drawdown has no parallel in the available record." -Andrew Cates, Haver Analytics
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
"The cost of insuring SoftBank's debt against default has shot up, with the five-year credit default swap spread exceeding 400 basis points this week, compared with around 280 basis points in June." -Reuters
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
"Despite concerns that elevated valuations and increased equity issuance could weigh on the market, demand for U.S. equities has remained remarkably resilient in 2026." -Ned Davis Research
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
"U.S. M&A deal activity decreased in August, going down 15.4% with 1,116 announcements compared to 1,319 in July. Aggregate M&A spending decreased as well. In August, 2.2% less was spent on deals compared to July." -FactSet
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
"Major copper discoveries ... have fallen from double digits annually in the 1990s and 2000s to one or two in recent years, with none in 2025. Because a new deposit takes roughly 18 years to reach production, the chart below describes supply in the 2040s." -Torsten Slok, Apollo
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
"If there's one chart that frames the challenges to risk management right now, I think it's this one." -Alpha Ex LLC
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
"When yields have risen, High Beta has outperformed the S&P 500 by the widest margin, followed by Pure Value and GARP. The biggest laggards have been Low Volatility and Dividend Aristocrats, while Momentum has also tended to suffer." -S&P Global
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
"Taking a step back, US yields are not at atypical levels relative to economic conditions." -Steve Donze, Pictet
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
"10-year yields have been higher for 7-months in a row, inclusive of September, tied for the longest streak in 50 years." Jefferies via Carl Quintanilla, CNBC
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Single-family home sales rose 6.4% MoM in August to a SAAR of 684 million, a YTD high. The median sale price continues to slide.
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
5 of Thursday's best charts and insights:
dailychartbook.com
"When yields have risen, High Beta has outperformed the S&P 500 by the widest margin"
DC Lite #690 | New US home sales, yields streak, yields vs. GDP, equity factors for rising yields, stock-to-stock vs. stock-to-bond correlations
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
"Eleven percent of [U.S.] investors now say they own cryptocurrency, down from 17% in 2025 but still significantly higher than the 2% and 6% readings in 2018 and 2021, respectively." -Gallup
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
"More than half of the rise in the top 1% income share since 1985, 5.8 of 10.5 percentage points, flowed through pass-through businesses" -Torsten Slok, Apollo
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
"OpenTable US seated diners are running plus 13 to plus 17 percent year over year through late August and early September. You would expect to see this retrench if consumer was weak…" -Sean Emory, Avory & Co.
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Financials: "Forward earnings is up 12.5% ytd, but the price is up just 1.8% because the forward P/E is down 9.5%" -Yardeni
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
"B200 rental rates up 30% YTD. Hyperscaler cloud revenues tracking along. Remember: GPU rental rates and token prices were supposed to fall over time. The demand metrics this year have beaten all informed expectations." -Warren Pies, 3Fourteen Research
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
"AI is getting cheaper more quickly than any other transformative tech in history." -Epoch AI
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Investors have "added $22 billion into technology-focused US exchange-traded funds this quarter, compared with $4.6 billion into the rest of the market" -Jess Menton, BBG
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
"The rise in diesel prices does not stay in the energy line of the CPI but migrates with a lag into core goods and services, which is exactly the kind of pass-through the Fed cannot dismiss as transitory" -Torsten Slok, Apollo
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
US Flash PMIs: "To put the growth surge in context, barring the spike in demand following the opening up of the economy after the COVID-19 lockdowns, the latest improvement in business activity is the greatest recorded since early 2015" -Chris Williamson, S&P Global
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