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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 7h

Oct pricing after Williams

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 29/09/2026

CB labor market gauge another cycle low

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 28/09/2026

In aggregate it's impossible for everyone to hedge out interest rate risk so path of least resistance is higher yields so at the margin someone steps up and "takes it"

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 28/09/2026

Big week coming up for govies. as it's a quick turnaround from month end to NFP with the usual crosscurrents that entails. Exp for 90K headline payrolls but unemployment rate may be more interesting with labor supply in the doldrums

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 24/09/2026

All time high real 30s (TIPS)

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 24/09/2026

US and Iran discuss phased deal to reopen Hormuz and end US blockade, sources say

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 24/09/2026

Removal of forward guidance was bound to have a few hiccups as leveraged types like dealers, HFs, locals etc adjusted to the new Fed. Feels like USTs are in a great place now with a good does of uncertainty premium built across the curve.

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 24/09/2026

Apparently, UST 30s at highest yield since 2004

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 23/09/2026

5s had been bizarrely rich at the beginning of the tightening cycle but now making a new low on the broad curve. 2s5s also 5 bps steeper than earlier before the auction

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 23/09/2026

Forward curve nicely inverted with 1Y1Y now above 5.20

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 22/09/2026

It has been a dramatic cheapening of 2s since CPI. Looking to see if there will be any reprieve after today's auction. With 1-year forward 2s eyeballing 5% would expect some interest from real money.

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 21/09/2026

Good trades aren't spread evenly in time. So you need to step up when good ones are there. This is one of those times in USTs/SR3s.

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 21/09/2026

One of the street's fav trades paying off. 5y swap spreads at the widest level since earlier this year

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 21/09/2026

Overnight SOFR a bit soft since the rate hike. vs EFFR

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 18/09/2026

1-year forward 2s topping 5%

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 17/09/2026

10Y TIPS reopening auction today sporting the highest yield since 2008. 10s were the first TIPS tenor issued in '97 and it was an inauspicious start as the yield kept surging into Y2K

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 16/09/2026

5% front end in a year's time

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 16/09/2026

Long run dot a tick higher to 3.2

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 16/09/2026

I know we're all stoked for today's rate hike but it's not too early to start obsessing about the Oct FOMC and hike odds then just before an historic midterm election. Current odds seems a bit high to me but we'll see how it responds to FOMC and presser later today

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 15/09/2026

With tomorrow's rate decision now pretty much a lock, it will be all about projections despite Warsh's best effort. With the terminal rate north of 4.60 there should be some relief unless the dots and/or presser surprise hawkishly

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 15/09/2026

New cycle high for real 30s above 3.11%

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Reposted by Ed Bradford

Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

7.17% 30-year fixed mortgage www.mortgagenewsdaily.com

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 14/09/2026

UST 5s has been under tremendous pressure since NFP and is now the cheapest it has been on the broad curve since early 2025.

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 14/09/2026

Rate path using SR3s now vs before the start of the Iran conflict

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 14/09/2026

Dramatic flattening of the forward curve while I was gone. Out to 5s on the verge of inversion.

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 10/09/2026

Hike odds next week still remain uncertain at 70% post PPI despite UST carnage

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 10/09/2026

Cycle high 2s (4.47) before PPI

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 10/09/2026

Cycle higs 2s (4.47) before PPI

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 04/09/2026

We will need a real outlier for this print to matter much.

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 03/09/2026

ISM services employment gauge under 50 again

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 03/09/2026

Back to a tossup Sept FOMC after Waller's comments. Apparently it comes down to next week's inflation prints. And a reminder it's a PPI before CPI month so could see a few false moves before settling down for FOMC rate decision on the 16th

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 02/09/2026

Investment grade Yield-To-Worst index is now at year-to-date highs. Some issuers may decide to back off if funding costs continue to rise

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 01/09/2026

New month. More bond sales

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 31/08/2026

August was a refunding month with brand new 10s, 20s, and 30s so a larger extension today at 4 pm

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 31/08/2026

August month-end duration extension always a good opportunity to set up for the deluge of Corp supply in early Sept. Not that surprised by the aggressiveness of the front running but feel it started a bit earlier than expected.

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 28/08/2026

I think Warsh is happy with market's reaction today. While rate path repriced higher, Sept odds remain in the pre-speech tossup range

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 28/08/2026

Little-known fact: Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh appeared as a young extra in the 1987 drama film Ironweed before his career in finance

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 28/08/2026

FOMC Sept hike odds have ranged between 28 and 43 percent past two weeks. Looking forward to see how committed Warsh is to not guiding the markets and whether odds remain in their current coin flip (ish) mode

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 27/08/2026

More rate volatility is inevitable with no forward guidance. And higher vol means higher term premium. Back end of the UST curve reflects this new reality.

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 19/08/2026

I guess we should be upgrading today's new 20y auction to mildly interesting. WIs 5.19

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 18/08/2026

Regular reminder there is nothing that unusual about current long-end pricing. Yield spread to overnight rates through thick and thin have averaged higher than they are currently. Yes, it's a stunning reversal from QE/ZIRP negative real rates, but this is just old normal stuff

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 17/08/2026

Building some nice carry across the UST curve with all coupon yields significantly higher than overnight rates. Of course, more enticing now with only 23 bps of hikes priced for the remainder of 2026

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 17/08/2026

Looks like it will be a record breaking August for IG issuance with another 12 firms looking to sell bonds today. Add in more long-end UST auctions this week (20y and 30y TIPS) and the pressure is still on. 30s eyeballing cycle high yields (5.28%)

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 14/08/2026

Looks like we are re-auctioning yesterday's auction

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 14/08/2026

Curve-wide steepening as 2s30s surges above 110 bps. Hike odds keep tracking lower

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 13/08/2026

Interesting nugget from Bloomberg: apparently, this is highest 30y auction stop since 2001 (5.216%)

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 13/08/2026

Some soft (ish) inflation prints and 5s30s keeps trucking higher and now exceeding 90 bps. We had a kiss goodbye at 70 bps in late July

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