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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 15h

Momentum has been your friend in 4Q when the first 3Qs have been this strong

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Spot the one reason SPX only fell 0.5% in September

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

September ends down -0.5%. As the posts below helpfully point out, this month has been both good and bad

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Long story short SPX is within 1% of where it was 4 months ago. It's been in a 3% range for two months SPXEW is also within 1% of where it was 4 months ago, but it rose and then gave back a 6% gain in the interim

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Year 3 of the four year cycle is the ONLY year statistically better than the others. Missing in the chart below in 2022-23 when SPY gained ~17%

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Market reacting to today's PMI data. It's a silly measurement, not accurate with respect to the economy or future equity returns. Why? One small firm expanding a tiny bit is counts the same as the largest firm contracting by a massive amount. That's how diffusion indices work. Noise not signal

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

That was the weekly closing high. 6 weeks later, XLF is down 6% bsky.app/profile/ukar...

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

$COMPQ at a new ATH for the first time since early June. $IWM near a 3-month low and 6% off its August ATH.

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

This is regarded as the weakest week of the year

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Initial UE claims just 196k this week. Context (below) bsky.app/profile/ukar...

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

At the 20-wma, first time since April

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

In the past, US equities weak 1-3 mo after first rate hike, even if it occurs with SPX near an ATH (like now)

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Real retail sales +2.6% yoy; ex-gas +1.5%. Fun fact: real ex-gas retail up less than 1% over the past 5+ years. Retail sales are fine but not en fuego

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

BAML fund managers contrarian trade: short US equities, banks and large caps; long REITs, small caps, staples

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

RSP still perfect on 9/11. Enjoy your weekend

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

US stocks have historically rallied on 9/11 since 2002. RSP has been up all 17 times. From Gemini

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

This sums up most breadth analyses. First chart: weak breadth is a buying opportunity. Second chart: strong breadth is a buying opportunity.

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Aug NFP of 162k vs 55k expected. 90% confidence interval is +/-120k, so any print 40-280k is statistically indistinguishable from expected. This wasn't a blowout. Remember that ‘blowout’ May NFP of 172k. Final revision: 63k. Anyone learn from this? Same day employment reactions are the worst.

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

There was also a substantial $18b outflow from domestic MF + ETF equities last week (ICI). That's the first big outflow in a year. Nothing's perfect but this is usually a positive

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Fear & Greed has halved over past week. When it is <30 and SPX is >200-d, SPX is higher 85% of the time by 6% six months later. That win % is robust relative to 'anytime' and mean/median are nearly identical, so distribution is symmetrical (one year less so). From @sentimentrader.bsky.social

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

This is not sentiment. This is: Asset/(Equity+Bond+Cash). As equity prices go up, so does the allocation to equities as a % of the total. That's why the equities % exactly peaks with the bull market and exactly bottoms with the bear market. Investors reallocate on the margin; that's sentiment.

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

At the start of the year, the consensus saw extremely low recession risk and both stronger growth and lower inflation in the next year. The 2-yr was well below the FFR. That's not a combo where the Fed is cutting

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

The midterm seasonality calendar has been right only once in the first 8 months

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

Love this. September in mid-term years has been both the worst and the best. If something can be both the worst and the best then there’s no pattern. Using an average just masks a huge standard deviation. That, in a nutshell, is why seasonality is so worthless

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

A lot of equity call buying relative to puts, with CPCE dropping to just 0.39 yesterday. The last one was end of May before choppy June. Here’s an old chart from 2021. You get the idea

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

This was the end of the advance. SPX was more than 1% lower at yesterday’s close, 8 days later

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

Follow the data, which shows it’s closed.

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

$SPX is up +3.7% the last 4 wks. It has gained +4.6% overnight and lost -0.9% during market hrs

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

When QQQ drops 5 days in a row and the index is >200-d, then 20-d forward returns avg 4.5% (vs 1.2% anytime). 78% win rate means high likelihood, not certainty. 95% CI between +2.8% and +6.4%. From Gemini

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

BAML fund managers: equity overweight the highest in 5 yrs, cash allocation the 6th lowest since 1998. Allocations to US equities, commodities and banks over +1 std dev from long term mean while staples and cash under -1 std dev

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

$SPX up 3 wks in a row for the first time since May. 94% of the gain during these 3 wks has come overnight, gapping up 13 of 15 days

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

XLF set to close higher an 11th week in a row, a record. It has twice closed higher 9 wks in a row. 2004: it went higher the next month, gave it all back and went net nowhere for more than a yr. 2010: it soon dropped ~20% and went net nowhere for 2-1/2 yrs. This is n=2 so it's for cocktail chatter

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Strongest part of the seasonal cycle is just ahead. Thank God, because it's only up 15% during the weakest part

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

Today (1st chart) vs a week ago (next 3 charts).

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

VIX:VXV under 0.8 today for the first time since this post in late December

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Remember this? Lower after two weeks. Every. Single. Time. Today is two weeks later and SPX is higher by nearly 6%.

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

The good news: core inflation using timely measures of shelter well under Fed's 2% target The bad news: headline inflation (also using RT shelter) were running under 2% before Iran. Now >2.5%. From Jeremy Schwartz

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

Useful context would be that most of the big declines in the past 20+ years started when more than 70% of the SPX was above the 200-d (second chart, lower panel).

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

Today's was the 9th overnight gap up in the past 10 sessions. SPY is up 4.3% during that period; 85% of that gain came overnight

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

Covid broke the y-axis, making every chart longer than 5 year useless. If you know someone at FRED, plead for a tool to adjust this axis. I’ve tried.

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

Remember that ‘blow out’ May NFP of 172k. Final revision: 63k. Anyone learn from this? Today’s NFP -23k vs consensus of +90k on Sunday. Same day employment reactions are the worst.

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

This is solid: risk/reward for the next year is historically 2:1 positive. The avg gain is dragged up by a few extreme outliers; use the median instead. You'll likely have to endure a meaningful drawdown, as usual. With n=18, the 100% win does not imply any certainty, only probability.

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

1. Diff btw ATH & Any Day tiny: 0.4% @ 12M. Likewise, 0.2% vs Bear Market. 2. Avg masks enormous std dev which obliterates avgs 3. Autocorrelation: ATHs cluster (25 this year); measuring same thing over & over. Bear markets are discrete events 4. Sample size: hundreds of ATHs vs <20 bear markets

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

Over 25 one-hour trading periods, $SPY closed lower just once.

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

SPX 60' - RSI(5) > 97 (top panel). Only 5 other instances in the past 5 years. The best outcome was July 2025 - SPX drew up another 2% before giving it all back with one month. The others chopped sideways/lower in the next days/weeks

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

New ATHs today (many for the first time since June 2): $SPY $SPXTR $DJIA $NYSE $RUA $WLSH. None of the 11 sectors at a new ATH

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

Reminder that the seasonality calendar has been right once in the first 7 months.

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Urban Carmel @ukarlewitz.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

$SPY is now up 0.5% ($4) for the week. It has gapped up overnight by a net 2% ($14.8)

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