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Conor Sen

@conorsen.bsky.social
78K followers 186 following 1.2K posts

Founder of the Housing Frame on Substack. Housing, markets, economy. Buc-ee’s fan. conorsen.substack.com 📍Atlanta, GA

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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 6h
NOT PLEASED
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 7h
Only ~21% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50-day moving average -- generally don't see it get much lower than this unless you get big index drawdowns:
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 13h
NGDP growth was the hottest since Q2 2022.
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 13h
Personal spending is still growing at 6%/year and isn't slowing at all. Consumers are pinched on costs but there's no reason to be bearish on nominal spending growth:
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Me when I see 20-somethings complaining about John Mayer going to the Sphere instead of a more affordable tour:
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Doesn’t seem right for the best team in the WNBA to potentially get knocked out in two games.
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Really bad foul by Caitlin Clark there, can’t foul out with 2:45 to go. Hope that’s not the end of her season.
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Agree with George.
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
When you can’t IPO your mood ring company with the stock market near all-time highs:
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Bummer that it sounds like Digger was a bomb, feels like the first real Hollywood miss outside of stale IP this year.
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
A lot of the places on this list look like “Where would Ted Lasso live?”
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Reposted by Conor Sen
Guy Berger @econberger.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
As recently as 4-6 weeks ago I characterized the labor market recovery as "on pause", but now it's clearly unpaused. September was a good month for jobs
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
New from me: Why the Next Urban Vision is a 2030s Story conorsen.substack.com/p/why-the-ne...
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Can't wait to watch the Braves get swept in two straight games by Philly at 2pm on Tuesday-Wednesday on Tru TV, a tradition unlike any other.
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
There’s so much collective demand in the economy right now: -AI buildout/compute -Pent-up housing -Retiree healthcare/Social Security -Energy infrastructure -National defense modernization -Progressive policy wishlist -Supply chain resilience That we should really be rooting for AI to work.
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Seattle and Los Angeles rents are still falling but Boise and Reno are lighting up (September Apartment List data just came out):
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Huh, starting to think I shouldn’t trust Muse with my X money account.
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The 3 times in my career with elevated interest rates: -Mid-2000s, clear excess in housing/credit markets -2022-23, Fed actively trying to slow the economy/weaken the labor market -Now, lots of factors putting upward pressure on interest rates, rate-sensitive industries already derisked
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
You can understand how difficult it must've been to be the guy/gal buying fixed income in Q1 2000.
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Some good oil headline must've just hit.
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Since early June, 10-year yields are up ~80bps, housing transaction activity has slumped, some AI people have said we've achieved AGI, and yet homebuilding stocks have not underperformed semiconductors. A bit interesting:
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
@hmeisler.bsky.social $ITB green
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Reposted by Conor Sen
Ruo Shui @ruoshuiresearch.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
first time a model has moved the needle for daily driver since opus 4.6
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Opus 5.5 seems overall way better than Opus 4.x and 5.0. Faster, better responses, I don't hit my session limits as fast, etc. For the past couple months I thought I'd have to go beyond the $20/month plan but now I think I'm good.
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
We didn’t use our early iPhone cameras much but I did take one picture of the sunrise from my office back in the day — pretty fun to see what date it coincided with: @hmeisler.bsky.social
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I’ll get on the Dream bandwagon if they win tonight.
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
@fujoshi.bsky.social Lynx going down!
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Starting the WNBA playoffs on an NFL Sunday, certainly a choice.
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
I know Choosin’ Texas for the same reason I know who Salish Matter is and what Nee Dohs are — I have elementary school-aged kids, it has nothing to do with my music preferences (I mostly listen to podcasts anyway).
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
There’s no one specific person to blame or incident but college football culture feels a bit too over the top this year, it’s out of balance.
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Was looking at the 2018 Senate results again…Manchin winning after Trump won WV by 42% in 2016 is so crazy:
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Wait, the kicker?
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Maybe it's mostly because Berkshire Hathaway bought more Lennar, which is not the homebuilder I'd be buying here, but it's noteworthy that homebuilding stocks haven't made new lows in this recent surge in interest rates:
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
New Housing Frame: The Housing Bear Case Needs Both 7% Rates and a Weak Economy conorsen.substack.com/p/the-housin...
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
is this a warning or a threat
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
I'd been getting progressively a little more annoyed with Claude over the past several months but so far at least Opus 5.5 really is an improvement.
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Can’t wait to do inverted yield curve discourse again in 2027.
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
This is insane.
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Olivia Miles making her MVP case by the Lynx getting smoked by the Fever without her.
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Particularly if you work in media, it speaks to a real cultural blind spot.
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Berkshire bought more Lennar? Wrong part of the market…
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Economic sentiment being in the toilet in the middle of a capex boom driving stocks to highs at 4.1% unemployment is not something I would have believed in the early 2010s.
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
New Housing Frame: Housing CEOs Say Cost Relief is Ending -- one more dynamic to consider on the inflation outlook as equity investors race to price an end to rate hikes: conorsen.substack.com/p/housing-ce...
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Bill McBride @calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Goldman “We now expect the FOMC to deliver a second 25bp hike in October. We think consecutive hikes are most natural because the FOMC presented the hike as supporting “a timelier return” to 2% inflation.” This is a change in their outlook.
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
You don’t really see large-scale corporate/tech layoff announcements anymore.
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Very tempted to call a bottom for Los Angeles after the Paramount settlement.
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
We should stop letting politicians in the Midwest raise costs for all Americans.
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
“The Fed’s only going to raise another 1-2 times, it’s safe to buy stocks” —> “If investors think it’s safe to buy stocks then the Fed hasn’t raised rates enough.”
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Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Prediction markets are handy indexes of conventional wisdom, but do they actually tell us anything? Across the 2026 primary cycle they well-calibrated at least. www.slowboring.com/p/is-the-blu...
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Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
The fourth highest-paid quarterback who the Falcons are paying this year is not playing very well, go figure.
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