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Jeff Frame

@vortexjeff.bsky.social
4.3K followers 910 following 4.5K posts

Teaching professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Illinois and storm chaser. I teach weather. Posts are usually about weather, sometimes sports, but never politics. PhD, MS PSU; BS Michigan. All opinions mine. vortexjeff.smugmug.com

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Reposted by Jeff Frame
Johnny K @stormchaser4850.bsky.social · 15h
A #tornado was spotted on the southwest side of #Amarillo #Texas ( #TXwx ) Tuesday night (September 29) (ABC7Amarillo )-TV: "You can see that nice rope extending from the cloud base all the way down" "You can see we did have a tornado on the ground" #wx #wxsky
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Jeff Frame @vortexjeff.bsky.social · 17h
Currently 5 tornado warnings in the Texas Panhandle
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Dr. Stephen Bieda III @drwildcatwx.bsky.social · 18h
Yep, definitely spinny. #TXWx (Timestamped 7:12 PM CDT, 9/29 from 806 Stormchasers).
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Matt Lanza @mattlanza.bsky.social · 18h
Tropical Storm Fay's 39 advisories and ~4 ACE units has to be a record for futility, right?
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Jeff Frame @vortexjeff.bsky.social · 21h
Great to welcome back three-time alum Dr. Troy Zaremba for a visit!
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Kim Wood @drkimwood.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I did a double-take when I opened the NHC forecast map for newly-minted Tropical Depression 19-E. Yes, it's expected to move almost due eastward. That's weird. I appreciate Eric Blake taking the time to point out what's affecting its track (see highlighted text in the discussion screenshot).
Map showing the TD 19-E NHC forecast cone from advisory 1 as of 8am PDT 29 September 2026. The expected track is eastward, an unusual direction at lower latitudes in this basin.Text from the advisory 1 NHC forecast on Tropical Depression 19-E:

"Although the system has become a tropical depression, the center is 
mostly exposed with moderate shear.  There is a slight chance of the 
system reaching tropical storm intensity later today before it feels 
the cold wake of former Hurricane Odalys by tomorrow.  The 
environment is expected to further dry out during the next couple of 
days with an increase in shear.  These factors should cause the 
depression to weaken by late Wednesday and degenerate into a post- 
tropical cyclone by late Thursday.  The NHC forecast is just above 
the model consensus.

The depression is moving eastward at 8 kt.  This general motion is 
expected for the next few days until dissipation while the cyclone 
remains embedded in westerly flow due to a northward-displaced 
near-equatorial trough, enhanced by both the strong El Nino event 
and western Hemisphere Madden-Julian Oscillation.  The track is 
close to a blend of the ECMWF and GFS models and leans toward the 
HCCA corrected-consensus model."
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National Weather Service @nws.noaa.gov · 28/09/2026
With the nor'easter winding down over New England, we have compiled some preliminary rainfall reports. Several locations saw in excess of six inches of rain. Storm summary: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html
September Nor'easter Rainfall Reports
Preliminary rainfall estimates and observations from Friday (9/25) to Monday (9/28)

Selected Rain Reports:

Neptune City, NJ: 8.25"

Wall Township, NJ: 7.44"

Holmdel, NJ: 7.05"

Wareham, MA: 6.94"

Plymouth, MA: 6.73"

Norton, MA: 6.67"

Howell, NJ: 6.66"

Centereach, NY: 5.83"

Providence, RI (T.F. Green Airport): 4.12"

Durham, CT: 4.22"

Scarborough, ME: 4.00"

Boston, MA (Logan Airport): 3.16"

Map Description:
Rainfall total map of the Northeast U.S. covering preliminary data from 8AM EDT Friday Sept. 25 through 8AM Monday Sept. 28. Highest rainfall amounts (orange/red, 6 to 10+ inches) are concentrated along coastal New Jersey, Long Island, and southeastern Massachusetts. Inland areas across Pennsylvania, New York, and northern New England received lower amounts ranging from 0.5 to 4 inches (light to dark green).
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Jeff Frame @vortexjeff.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Opening day of the #WxChallenge! Good luck everyone!
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IEMBot Central Illinois @ilx.weather.im · 28/09/2026
ILX issues Dense Fog Advisory for Champaign, Douglas, Edgar, Vermilion [IL] till Sep 28, 10:00 AM CDT Link
IEMBot Image
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Now that the nor'easter completed its phase with a tropopause vortex and is decidedly non-tropical, let's look back at its structural evolution over the last day and a half, and why despite attempting to start the tropical transition process, it fell short of classification:
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daryl herzmann @akrherz.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Yes, radarscope recently added a bunch of independent radars.
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Barry Butler Photography @barrybutler9.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Glass, Like Glass. Sunday's sunrise at the entrance to the Chicago River.
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Jeff Frame @vortexjeff.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Strong surface frontogensis analyzed on the north side of the nor'easter, typical of an extratropical cyclone.
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Brian Cook, the mgoblog guy @mgoblog.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
this guy should be kicked out of the Big Ten but also BAN BASEBALL SLIDES
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Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Amazingly, the hurricane drought continues with nothing in the foreseeable future. No hurricane season has gotten this far along without a hurricane in the past century, and during the more reliable satellite era (mid-1970s), the previous record latest first hurricane formation was September 11.
bmcnoldy.blogspot.com
September will end and still no hurricane this season
Updates and summaries on tropical Atlantic activity... including easterly waves, tropical storms, subtropical storms, and hurricanes.
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Jeff Frame @vortexjeff.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Michigan also committed a mindless dead ball unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on the final drive. #Ugh
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Jeff Frame @vortexjeff.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Another one bites the dust in the Atlantic
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MLB @mlbbot.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Thank you, Justin Verlander 🧡 JV leaves the mound for the Tigers - one final time.
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WeatherMatrix @weathermatrix.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Flooding near Bethany Beach, Delaware
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Kim Wood @drkimwood.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Daily z-score maps of ERA5 potential intensity relative to a 1991-2020 base period. Animation shows 1-20 September 2026. Persistently favorable conditions in much of the eastern North Pacific, only occasionally favorable in much of the North Atlantic MDR (such as where Gonzalo recently formed).
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Kim Wood @drkimwood.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Record now set and will continue to be broken until Polo drops below category 5 strength.
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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
#Polo remains a solid Category 5 per recon, but changes are afoot. A lot more bursting around the eye which can be an early tell that an eyewall replacement cycle will begin soon
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Matt Lanza @mattlanza.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
The weather in NYC isn’t going to be extreme. It’s just going to be gross.
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Mark Ellinwood @markellinwood.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Polo up to 180 mph now, dang.
Satellite image of Category 5 Hurricane Polo in the East PacificRecent satellite intensity estimates indicate that Polo has 
significantly strengthened with maximum sustained winds now 
estimated to be 180 mph (290 km/h). This intensity change will be 
reflected in the next routine forecast advisory package that will be 
issued by 800 AM MST (1500 UTC).
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SportsCenter (Unofficial) @sportscenter-2.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
ATLANTA PUTS ON A SHOW AT LAMBEAU 🔥 The Falcons put up 35 points, the most the Packers have allowed in a home opener since 1971.
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The Associated Press @apnews.com · 25/09/2026
Nearly everyone will feel the impact of what's going on in the bond market, no matter how far away and abstract it may seem.
bit.ly
Why bond yields are rising and why everyone should care
Nearly everyone will feel the impact of what’s going on in the bond market, no matter how far away and abstract it may seem.
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Google DeepMind shows a 33% chance of a tropical storm. ECMWF's tropical cyclone probabilities from EPS & AIFS exceed 80%. Surely that means this nor'easter will be a tropical storm, right? Short answer... it's not that simple. Breaking down why in this technical thread 🧵
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Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Unlike tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and East Pacific which get assigned names from a fresh alphabetical list each year, the Central Pacific uses four alphabetical lists sequentially... that is, the first storm this year picks up where the last storm left off, even it was several years ago.
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WeatherMatrix @weathermatrix.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Highway 12 on the Outer Banks has been breached.
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Ryan Stauffer @ryanswx.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Hurricane Polo is a category 5 again
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Marshall Shepherd @drshepherd2013.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
🤓 THIS WEEK ON GEEKS 🤓 University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign's Dr. Stephen Nesbitt is leading a new frontier in meteorology, building open-source tools like Radar DataTree to turn decades of legacy radar files into AI-ready intelligence! LISTEN NOW 👉 linktr.ee/WeatherGeeks
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Kyle J Gillett @wxkylegillett.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
SounderPy v3.2.0 has been published to pip and may now be updated on your machine with... pip install --upgrade sounderpy
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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
#Polo does not look so good this morning. Its long stall has upwelled water which is now weakening convection and degrading the core. Needs to move from this position to bounce back but that will take some time
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National Weather Service @nws.noaa.gov · 23/09/2026
Tornado forecasting had to start somewhere. In the 1880s, US Army Signal Corps meteorologist John Park Finley studied tornado patterns, built a network of observers and pioneered experimental tornado forecasts. Meet America’s first tornado forecaster: www.noaa.gov/heritage/sto... #NOAAHeritageWeek

A map from John P. Finley’s booklet, “Tornadoes. What they are and how to observe them; with practical suggestions for the protection of life and property.” showing the path of the Enigma outbreak of tornadoes on February 19, 1884. (Image credit: Public Domain)
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Dakota Smith @weatherdak.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The incredible full day, high resolution view of Hurricane Polo today.
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Brian Matilla @bxmatilla.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Hurricane Polo's rapid intensification is seriously impressive... A special 19Z update was issued by the NHC stating that reconnaissance aircraft found that Polo's central pressure is sitting at 892 mb, the 2nd strongest EPAC hurricane by pressure only behind Hurricane Patricia (2015; 872 mb).
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Chris Vagasky @coweatherman.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Lots of lightning delays at college football games this weekend and lots of people complaining about them. I had some words to say. Me, in @us.theconversation.com: theconversation.com/game-delays-...
theconversation.com
Game delays for lightning may be annoying, but they save lives – a sports meteorologist explains the risk
Players have been injured by lightning during games, and a strike to the stands could hurt a lot of fans.
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Mark Ellinwood @markellinwood.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
The mesoscale floater on Cat 5 Polo this morning
Visible satellite of category 5 hurricane Polo in the East Pacific, southwest of Mexico.
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Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Happy Equinox! ☀️🌎 First day of Autumn in the northern hemisphere, first day of Spring in the southern hemisphere. Roughly equal daylight and darkness for everyone in the world.
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Johnny K @stormchaser4850.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
( #NWSNewOrleans): Incredible picture of a tree struck by #lightning in Folsom, LA. Picture by David Pittman. #Louisiana #LAwx #wx #wxsky
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Kim Wood @drkimwood.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
In the eastern North Pacific south of Mexico, Hurricane Polo has rapidly intensified from a tropical depression to a major hurricane in just over a day and continues to barrel toward category 5 strength.
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Jeff Frame @vortexjeff.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Today is the first day Champaign-Urbana experienced a high in the 60s since we only hit 69 on May 21.
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The Washington Post @washingtonpost.com · 21/09/2026
An El Niño of record proportions has developed, with the Niño 3.4 region reaching the highest peak sea surface temperature anomaly on record. By this metric, this El Niño has now surpassed historically significant events in 1997 and 1982.
washingtonpost.com
The ongoing El Niño has officially reached record levels
The United States will probably experience the biggest effects from the weather pattern this winter.
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Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
These SHIPS RI probabilities for Polo are incredible www.polarwx.com/tropical/#ep...
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Mike Charnick @charnick.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Giant hail up to 4 inches (!!!) in diameter between Eads and Chivington Colorado, measured over an hour after it fell! This is the largest hail stone I have held in Colorado. #cowx #hail
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Jeff Frame @vortexjeff.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
I wasn't expecting this today
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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
#Fay looks good this morning as it occupies a small favorable pocket. Best looking storm of the year! However, you can see shear encroaching on its NW side (looked at the anvils there), and it has limited time to keep intensifying. But we'll see if it can become the record latest first hurricane
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Weather History @weatherhistory.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
September 20th, 2017: Hurricane Maria made a devastating landfall on Puerto Rico. Thousands of structures were destroyed, forests were shredded, and communications & power infrastructure were obliterated. Maria took the lives of at least 2,900 people on the island.
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SportsCenter (Unofficial) @sportscenter-2.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
RT @SportsCenter: OLE MISS INT IN THE END ZONE IN THE FINAL MINUTE ‼️
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National Hurricane Center @nhc-atlantic.extwitter.link · 20/09/2026
Tropical Storm #Fay Advisory 4 (9 AM GMT, Sun Sep 20): Depression Strengthens to Tropical Storm Fay.
hurricanes.gov
hurricanes.gov
Read more on hurricanes.gov
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