iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Over the next few days, we'll have a pretty solid westerly wind band north of the equator through essentially the entire Pacific. Very easy to spin up TCs in such an environment! El Nino in total control at this point

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Another day, another great satellite presentation in the Pacific. Today it's #Nolo, which has gotten into an increasingly favorable environment and has cleared out a nice large eye. Look at the low clouds spinning around! Expected to reach Category 5, and thankfully no land threat

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

#Surigae really got itself together. Eye trying to clear on satellite, JMA radar composite has solid eyewall though it could really wrap the more intense precipitation around the entire thing

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Keeping up the momentum with some new features. First is split screen, which is good to see different kinds of data for a storm without overlapping or watch 2 at once. And next is the ability to save or load a view so if you have multiple frequent setups it is now very easy to spin them up!

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Some crazy stuff going on with the warm pool right now. You can even see it in the raw temperature plot, reversing the usual vertical gradient. May see Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 warm even further as this surfaces

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

I've added lots of new ways to view recon data on cyclonicwx.com/interactive/, using the flexibility the map gives you! First are dots rather than the usual wind barbs. You can change these to display wind speed, temperature, and extrapolated pressure! The latter two change the mouseover value too.

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

#Polo remains a solid Category 5 per recon, but changes are afoot. A lot more bursting around the eye which can be an early tell that an eyewall replacement cycle will begin soon

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Recon is on the way to #Polo now! Reminder that on some NOAA missions like this one you can see new data minute by minute! Much faster than the normal HDOB

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

#Polo has come back to Category 5 strength and looks quite impressive! Another big round of eyewall lightning is ongoing. We shall see what recon finds later during this second peak

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

#Polo recovered nicely from the upwelling, as it drifts towards warmer waters. Nice wrapping deep convection and clearing eye post-ERC. Nice second peak on the way!

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

#Polo does not look so good this morning. Its long stall has upwelled water which is now weakening convection and degrading the core. Needs to move from this position to bounce back but that will take some time

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Pretty clear ERC underway with #Polo today. Moat well defined on satellite, and recon shows double wind maxima and concentric rings of higher vorticity. Will cause some brief weakening but probably another peak tomorrow after it finishes

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Well #Polo is indeed at least a Category 5 from this 155kt flight wind. Pressure below 890mb! Lowest I've ever seen on recon. Top tier storm for sure

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Do you hate waiting 10 minutes for new HDOB batches to come in from recon? Wait no more! I have added data that comes in as close to live as it gets from NOAA planes, updating once a minute, both on cyclonicwx.com/interactive/ and the classic recon page. Get an early look at how strong #Polo is!

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

I jumped the gun! Now up to 250-300 flashes per half hour. Good example of enveloped eyewall lightning (EEL) with #Polo

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

#Polo is electrically active this morning as it continues to RI to Category 5 status. Good amount of eyewall lightning! PS: you can now see GLM flashes and get flash counts for anywhere (inside GOES range) at cyclonicwx.com/interactive/!

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Nice full wrapping now with #Polo this evening. Classic sign of a storm that will be markedly stronger by tomorrow, likely a major hurricane. Tomorrow's recon will be informative by then. Very little in the way of RI tonight

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

#Polo is clearing out an eye with vortical hot towers around it as recon leaves. It found a core developing and pressures dropping into the 970s. Likely to see very rapid intensification soon. NHC forecast is about as high as you'll see it for a storm of this strength

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

The warm pool has somehow exceeded the color scale once again, so I have extended it to 15C! Hopefully this is the last adjustment needed. Crazy thermocline suppression

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

#Fay approached hurricane strength, but is just short. Shear is ramping up and the center looks to be exposed soon. Probably won't make it in the end, so the no hurricane streak lives another day unless it's upgraded post season. At this rate could go the rest of the year

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

#Fay looks good this morning as it occupies a small favorable pocket. Best looking storm of the year! However, you can see shear encroaching on its NW side (looked at the anvils there), and it has limited time to keep intensifying. But we'll see if it can become the record latest first hurricane

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

At peak season and the day before the latest first hurricane for the Atlantic... there remains no activity at all. Will probably see many more similar inactivity records go down before the season ends

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

Hard to ever get tired of these sorts of visible loops. Here's #Lowell as sunset approaches, having regained Category 5 strength

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

#Lowell remains strong this afternoon with pressures in the lower 920s mb and winds around 130kt. Great satellite presentation. Has strengthened today after its ERC ended. We'll see if winds bump up to Category 5 strength as forecast

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Nino 1+2 just keeps on warming... now approaching +5C! Getting into uncharted territory now. Who knows the next time we'll see values like this

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

#PTC5 has a closed circulation, and seems to be just about a TD at this point. Winds remain weak for now. Looks very solid with some banding getting going, and has a couple days to continue developing before moving onshore near the TX/LA border. Always worth watching with smaller systems like these

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

Nice to have dense observation networks! #Saudel passed nearly directly over a station, yielding a minimum pressure of ~957mb. Winds rather low, likely as that was the weaker side of the storm

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

Despite peak season, the Atlantic remains pretty much dead, with only a token chance of TC formation, far below normal. El Niño is just too much and is keeping things very quiet for now

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

#Lala has intensified impressively since moving west of Hawaii's main islands, and is probably around Category 4 strength now. Very nice eye, great sunset on the way!

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 16/08/2026

Although #Lala has avoided direct landfall, it still remains close enough to cause widespread impacts for much of Hawaii. Right now there is a very strong band delivering heavy rain and high winds. Currently a flash flood warning for Oahu. Be safe if you live there!

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

The West Pacific monsoon trough pattern in full swing, and now we have 3 sloppy TCs (and then there's #Dolphin over China). Very strange looking pattern! Too much westerly flow...

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

#Dolphin's small core is hanging on, and while it has weakened, its pressures remain low owing to its very large size. It will soon hit or make a very close approach to a station recording pressure. See it, with new obs every 10 min: cyclonicwx.com/interactive/...

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

Interesting evolution with #Dolphin today. After its core became increasingly large and disheveled, a new, much smaller eyewall formed. This will allow it to restrengthen somewhat with a smaller core. Still, it is a very large storm!

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

New ENSO plot! There's now a scatterplot comparing Niño 3.4 (or RONI) to the ENSO Longitude Index. Good way to tell how east- or west-based it is! So far given an ELI slightly more east than 1997 with similar RONI, it would imply that 2026 is similarly or even more east-based

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

In July, the equatorial subsurface east of the dateline was warmer than it has ever been, beating 1997's peak by 0.36°C! This value tends to peak in the fall so we may still have more to go. Yet another record broken by this very strong El Niño event!

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

#Dolphin has cleared out a nice eye today, but it won't stay this way for long. A recent microwave pass shows there is an outer eyewall, so yet another ERC will commence soon. This will likely be quite a big storm as it approaches the western part of the basin

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

Watching the sunrise on strong tropical cyclones never gets old. Category 5 #Dolphin certainly impressing

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

#Dolphin has intensified impressively quickly and sports a pinhole eye. Likely not far from super typhoon strength already! It looks likely to undergo an ERC soon, but conditions remain extremely favorable for a while, allowing a very intense storm. JTWC forecasts 165kt!

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

Lots of bursting convection south of #Dolphin's center right now. Almost certainly at least part of an eyewall developing in here, and it's probably just about a typhoon already. Will likely see RI to a super typhoon begin some point soon

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 26/07/2026

#92C looks to have developed now with the help of a very strong WWB. It will traverse much of the West Pacific, including the patch of record SSTs, and most likely end up a powerful typhoon

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 26/07/2026

#Genevieve is the East Pacific's first major hurricane of the year. Look at all the rotating convective bursts around the clearing eye! Will be nice eye candy as it travels WNW through the open Pacific

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

#Bertha is trying to relocate its LLC as the NE side weakens and a potent MLC tries to drill to the surface. Some nice inflow into the convection now. Shear remains high so we won't see those hurricane model solutions come to pass but would allow it to survive longer if LLC remains well-defined

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

#Bertha is an impressively decoupled tropical cyclone. The LLC is over 100 miles away from the main convective complex! Yet the LLC remains very well defined, so a relocation would be difficult. Most likely it will remain weak and disorganized

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

#Bertha remains quite sheared today. A good example of it this morning, with an attempted convective burst that ultimately fails and is sheared off the LLC. There's enough convection for gradual pressure falls and some stronger winds in here, but Bertha remains disheveled

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

#TD2 has a bit more convection near its center than yesterday, but it is displaced, and the present NE shear is very apparent. Given N movement and lack of organization, it will likely not intensify very much before approaching the mouth of the Mississippi in a couple days and interacts with land

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 19/07/2026

#TD2 has gotten itself together rather quickly, becoming a TC with a solid footprint of rotation. It will likely strengthen in the next couple of days, but future land interaction & NE shear will try to keep a lid on it, keeping it at TS strength. Worth watching if it dips south

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

Niño 3.4 has hit +2°C, earlier than any other year, including 1997 which took until the end of August! However, RONI shows isn't so far from the old records, and is on track with 1997. Very impressive with stronger -ENSO in January, and even in RONI terms could surpass 1997

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

As #Bavi approaches the Ishigaki area, we'll have a solid trove of data come in, both from Ishigaki's radar and several AMeDAS stations in the area. Radar will look particularly interesting with its very large outer eyewall. See it at cyclonicwx.com/interactive/!

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

With #Bavi's ERC over and a mostly clear eye, you can see down to the low cloud and ocean again. Mesmerizing to watch up close, with Himawari Target Area (and GOES Mesoscale Sector) visible imagery now available at 500m resolution!

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Alex Boreham @cyclonicwx.bsky.social · 06/07/2026

With #Bavi making its trek towards Taiwan and the Ryukyu Islands, I've added some more data you can see from the JMA that will be useful this season! The first is velocity data from the radars in addition to reflectivity.

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