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Tomer Burg

@burgwx.bsky.social
7.6K followers 165 following 1.5K posts

Senior meteorological scientist at @windbornewx.bsky.social & web developer

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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Now that the nor'easter completed its phase with a tropopause vortex and is decidedly non-tropical, let's look back at its structural evolution over the last day and a half, and why despite attempting to start the tropical transition process, it fell short of classification:
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Go home GFS you're drunk again
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Google DeepMind shows a 33% chance of a tropical storm. ECMWF's tropical cyclone probabilities from EPS & AIFS exceed 80%. Surely that means this nor'easter will be a tropical storm, right? Short answer... it's not that simple. Breaking down why in this technical thread 🧵
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
A less well-known fact about this hurricane is that it hit on Yom Kippur and on a Saturday, as Miami's still-nascent Jewish community was growing. Many left Yom Kippur services as conditions were worsening, and some persevered fasting through destructive conditions.
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
AI’s ceiling may be far beyond what most people can comprehend. That doesn’t mean “most people are stupid”. It means “it is genuinely difficult to envision an end point to something which has no precedent”. Think of it like asking someone 150 years ago what technology in 2026 will look like.
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
There is finally a potential for a hurricane or strong tropical cyclone east of North America — but it’s in the Mediterranean. There’s been a growing signal among ensembles for a medicane, or subtropical/tropical cyclone in the Mediterranean, that may develop this week.
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
In addition to the new PolarWx tropical cyclone archive, I'm slowly starting to backfill satellite data for past storms (Melissa 2025 shown below) - plus with 4 new default colormaps to choose from: polarwx.com/tropical/#ar...
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Hurricane Lowell remains right of track of the latest NHC forecast — even following adjustments of the forecast track to the east with each update. Landfall in Hawaii is *not* expected, but these trends have prompted a hurricane warning in western Hawaii for significant impacts.
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
If it seems like the NHC forecast for Hurricane Lowell shifted closer to Hawaii, you're not imagining things - there has been a clear eastward shift over the last 2 days. Perhaps more concerningly, the NHC forecast is actually *west* of all models, which continue trending east.
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
New addition to PolarWx - tropical cyclone archives Lots of features packed into the archives, including ACE climatology, viewing past NHC forecast & model & ensemble data for storms, filtering through all past storms, and more: polarwx.com/tropical/#ar...
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
New addition to the PolarWx tropical cyclone page - satellite data 🛰️ On top of basin-wide views, storms with GOES-18/19 data now have a storm-long satellite archive, which can be viewed alongside recon missions & compared with forecast tracks. Lowell: polarwx.com/tropical/#ep...
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
Another typhoon, another @windbornewx.bsky.social eye intercept — this time navigating a controllable high-altitude balloon into a rapidly intensifying typhoon and collecting 3 vertical profiles in its eye as it cleared out:
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
doing a little thing late at night, round 2
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
It’s going to be a long evening
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
There's a growing risk of flash flooding across the northern half of NJ into the NYC metro tomorrow. A shortwave trough provides broad forcing for ascent, while a strong quasi-stationary low-mid level frontal boundary sets up with associated moisture flux convergence.
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
In between catching up on sleep post-AMS Madison I’ve revisited some of the most insightful convos I had at the conference — one of them being how past a certain point, you learn more about professional development and navigating the field of meteorology than meteorology itself.
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
This may be a long loop, but so has been Typhoon Dolphin's existence. It's already generated >57 ACE units, placing it among the top 10 ACE-producing storms in West Pacific records, while undergoing multiple eyewall replacement cycles and significant structural changes:
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
If you’re still in Madison after the summit, the atmosphere saved its best act for the end
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Someone along Lake Mendota must be getting a real nice sunset right now
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Reposted by Tomer Burg
Alan Gerard @wxmanms1.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Been tons of negative stories recently about weather balloons, but let's tell a positive tale today: WindBorne Systems completed an extremely cool mission to fly a balloon into typhoon Dolphin, and NOAA is working with the private sector to get this kind of data into its models. tinyurl.com/yc673875
tinyurl.com
WindBorne Systems successfully navigates a weather balloon into the eye of typhoon Dolphin
Demonstrates the promise of cutting edge atmospheric observational systems. In the current tropics, Dolphin remains the main game in town.
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Important insight from Sarah Trojniak in the forecast testbed panel at AMS Madison — applicable not just to research<—>operations but to product design in general: “It’s insightful to see how people use the product vs. what the product was designed for”
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
AMS Madison venue spotted from the air
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Reposted by Tomer Burg
Austin @gingerwx.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
The AMS Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting (WAF) and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) is excited to host the Research Operations Nexus (RON) at the AMS Madison Summit! The RON bridges meteorological research and operational forecasting. It is a great opportunity to connect with peers!
Image describing details about the Research Operations Nexus, which will take place at the AMS Madison Summit on August 5 from 4:30-6:00pm CT in Madison Ballroom B at the Monona Terrace Community and Convention Center.
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
Great time for the AMS Madison online program to be down as many of us head to Madison today (myself included) - luckily this resource exists for anyone that needs/wants to check the program (and in PDF format too!):
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Reposted by Tomer Burg
Dr. Larissa @rissarwx.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
An add on to Tomer's plot here: some more data showing wind speed and direction as we ascended and descended in the eye with some pivotal points labeled.
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Through extraordinary efforts, @windbornewx.bsky.social successfully navigated a controllable balloon above powerful Typhoon Dolphin, descended into its eye, then collected multiple vertical profiles as we circled inside its eye. A first of its kind type of hurricane data collection.
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Reposted by Tomer Burg
Dr. Larissa @rissarwx.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Final full descent sounding for this go around. Balloon is going back up and we'll keep doing that loop as long as Dolphin will let us.
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Sometimes you end up so insanely swamped and doing so many tasks simultaneously that you have to stop for a moment and marvel at the fact that you’re somehow still fully functioning (He says 2 days before flying for a week-long conference where he will have no rest)
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
ICYMI - the new PolarWx real time tropical cyclone website launched last night, and I just released an update with bug fixes & new features: - the "models" tab on default shows each model's most recent cycle - you can set "Lite viewer" as your default view polarwx.com/tropical
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
🚨 New PolarWx Site Launch 🚨 After a long time planning the next steps for PolarWx, phase 1 has rolled out this evening with a completely revamped real-time tropical cyclone monitor website. Check it out below or read the thread for more on what's new: polarwx.com/tropical/
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
While not official yet until the next NHC intensity analysis later tonight, satellite trends clearly indicate Hurricane Genevieve is a category 5 hurricane in the East Pacific basin and still intensifying:
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
🚨PolarWx Update🚨 The website is now back up again. Over the next 1-2 weeks some model suites will be down for underlying restructuring. Due to ongoing tropics activity, disruptions to the real-time tropical cyclone page will be as minimal as possible. polarwx.com/tropical/
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
While I could just leave this up and laugh that Google AI missed a major game tomorrow, I’ll use this as an example to highlight the probabilistic nature of LLMs. As I’m in NYC, searching “game tomorrow” 100 times showed: - 53 times both FIFA & Yankees - 43 times only Yankees - 5 times only FIFA
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
One of those days where flash flooding risks outweigh the severe risks in the NYC metro — parts of NYC are going to end up in the 2-3” ballpark when this round moves out, almost all in the span of an hour
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
The PolarWx downtime is expected to last for another day or two, as unexpected issues were encountered during underlying work on the server. I apologize again for the extended downtime, and hope to have the new PolarWx rolled out as soon as possible in the coming 1-2 weeks.
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Happening now ⬇️
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
🚨PolarWx Downtime Update🚨 The downtime is scheduled to start either tomorrow or Friday. It may take a day or two to bring PolarWx back online, after which some model products will be taken down for up to a week for underlying server restructuring.
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
With how thick the smoke plume is today, it also had an impact on temperatures by reducing sunlight at the surface. Most weather models don't factor in smoke plumes - and those models were as much as 10-15 degrees too warm today where the smoke concentration was most dense.
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Parts of the Northeast US have been under a thick plume of smoke today overspreading the region from fires across south-central Canada - the worst smoke plume to affect the region since the infamous 2023 NYC smoke plume. Thread for the meteorology associated with this:
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
🚨 PolarWx downtime heads up 🚨 At some point in the next 2 weeks I will be taking PolarWx offline for much-needed maintenance plus restructuring in preparation for (many) new features to come. I'll post more once I finalize the dates for the downtime.
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
There's a real risk of compounding hazards in parts of SE NY & Connecticut - some of the same areas hit by destructive storms yesterday are at risk of localized rain totals over 4-8" tonight through Tuesday with a slow-moving system. This could well prolong the recovery time for parts of the area.
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
“Well actually…”
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
While it is admittedly neat watching fireworks going off simultaneously with lightning from an approaching shelf cloud, but it also seems poorly planned out having people still outdoors with approaching lightning and downpours
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
NYC metro sites in contention of their all-time warmest low temperature record: Central Park: 84F last night (record: 84F [4 times], data since 1869) Newark, NJ: 87F last night (record: 86F [2 times], data since 1843)
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
Many people pointed out the next 10 dates are palindromes, but how many noticed that today is the only palindrome both with 2-digit years (6/20/26) *and* 4-digit years (6/20/2026)?
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
When using radar-derived rain totals, keep in mind that not only are these estimates at best, but their durations also vary. Take this example from the Mobile, AL radar — max estimate over 25”, but the label on the bottom left shows it’s a 4-day total estimate, not just today.
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
Extreme flash flooding occurred in Louisiana today, where localized but prolonged training convection led to over 2 feet of rain per MRMS estimates. While isolated, this was supported by synoptic-scale moisture flux convergence from a slow-moving mid level vortex moving onshore.
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
Being from the NYC metro in the Jersey side I don’t remember this much enthusiasm for a sports team since the Giants won the Super Bowl. What a run for the Knicks
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
There’s a deeper layer to this joke — both LLMs and a person with imposter syndrome can make the same mistakes. LLMs keep iterating to improve the code, while the person may drift towards self-doubt and defeat.
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
Conversation with an LLM if it had imposter syndrome “Here’s the script you asked for” “It crashed, there’s a syntax error in line 634 and a missing import” “I’m sorry. I screwed up” “Can you fix it?” “I’m not smart enough to fix it. I’m useless. I give up”
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