iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 17h

Really looking forward to seeing @garyallanmusic.bsky.social again this evening in Santa Fe. I've been a fan since the beginning (3 decades ago) and have a couple concert tickets saved from 2006 and 2009. If I recall, his bus was in an accident on the way to the 2009 concert, and he still played!

060

Reposted by Brian McNoldy

Shane Elipot @selipot.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

🌊 Hiring a postdoc in PO at UMiami @miamirosenstiel.bsky.social & UMaine! Study the AMOC across the RAPID-MOCHA & OSNAP arrays using models, moorings, SWOT & ML. Shape your own project, join cruises 🚢 Rolling review, apply early! umiami.wd1.myworkdayjobs.com/UMCareerStaf... #AMOC #OSNAP #RAPID

096

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The next round of potentially significant King Tide flooding in southeast Florida is coming up on the few days surrounding the New Moon on October 10. Tide forecasts updated every morning: sfwmd.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboa... @miamirosenstiel.bsky.social

0102

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Some impressive #Albuquerque climate stats through the end of September: - The year-to-date mean temperature is the hottest on record by a huge margin (66.3 °F, previous record was 63.6 °F, average is 61.9 °F) ...

1134

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Fay and Hanna have dissipated, and the Atlantic will be quiet for a week or so, then the long-range models begin hinting at something brewing in the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico. If this ends up developing into the ninth named storm, the next name on the list is Isaias.

bmcnoldy.blogspot.com

Eyes shift to southern Gulf of Mexico for next potential storm

Updates and summaries on tropical Atlantic activity... including easterly waves, tropical storms, subtropical storms, and hurricanes.

1215

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

No one would blame you if you couldn't remember the names of the 8 tropical storms so far this Atlantic hurricane season. bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2026/09/fay-...

2250

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

It would be unprecedented in the satellite era and even in the past century to have a hurricane season with no hurricanes. In the past century (1926-2025) the fewest number of hurricanes in a season is two, and that happened in 1930, 1982, and 2013.

bmcnoldy.blogspot.com

Fay lingers, Gonzalo dissipates, Hanna forms

Updates and summaries on tropical Atlantic activity... including easterly waves, tropical storms, subtropical storms, and hurricanes.

1259

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Amazingly, the hurricane drought continues with nothing in the foreseeable future. No hurricane season has gotten this far along without a hurricane in the past century, and during the more reliable satellite era (mid-1970s), the previous record latest first hurricane formation was September 11.

bmcnoldy.blogspot.com

September will end and still no hurricane this season

Updates and summaries on tropical Atlantic activity... including easterly waves, tropical storms, subtropical storms, and hurricanes.

23112

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

I'm aware that my website is not reachable from outside of the Univ. of Miami network... but it's not just mine, it's affecting many web servers at the university. In the meantime, I'll just share the long radar loop of Hurricane #Nolo near #Hawaii. This is updated through 1200 UTC on Saturday.

1215

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

If I search for tropical cyclones that actually came within 100 miles of New Mexico, I found 16 of them going back to 1916. The most recent was Newton in 2016. This isn't just remnants bringing rain, these are actual data points as tropical cyclones.

4403

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

If you haven't discovered @pyreweather.bsky.social yet, today's the day! It is brilliant on its own merit, but if you're a PSL Daily Composite refugee like me, you have a new home. It's fast, flexible, and feature-packed... 💯% recommend.

2173

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Hurricane #Nolo is easily within radar range from #Hawaii now. It should be making a sharp west turn soon, but not before bringing destructive wind, waves, and rain to the Big Island. Updated version of this loop is available at bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/ (currently some server issues)

17823

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Tropical Storm #Gonzalo has formed near Cabo Verde, and Tropical Storm #Fay is still going too. This is now the most active day of the Atlantic hurricane season so far, with two tropical storms and the most ACE accrued in a day. The ACE will also be up to 10% of average for the date.

1143

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Unlike tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and East Pacific which get assigned names from a fresh alphabetical list each year, the Central Pacific uses four alphabetical lists sequentially... that is, the first storm this year picks up where the last storm left off, even it was several years ago.

5327

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Fay's resurgence has nudged the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) up to 8% of average for the date... still a record-low value for this point in the season by a big margin during the reliable satellite era (mid-1970s).

bmcnoldy.blogspot.com

Still watching Fay, and Gonzalo could be on the near horizon

Updates and summaries on tropical Atlantic activity... including easterly waves, tropical storms, subtropical storms, and hurricanes.

22112

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

The Thursday morning update on Hurricane Polo's intensity verification, with another 4 model cycles in the verification batch...

1110

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

I started pointing this out in early JULY, but the sea surface temperature averaged over the Gulf of Mexico is record high, while the ocean heat content is near record low. Fascinating stuff, all summer long! Jul 7: bsky.app/profile/bmcn... Aug 19: bsky.app/profile/bmcn...

55016

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Here's a Wednesday morning update on the preliminary, ongoing intensity verification statistics for Hurricane #Polo in the East Pacific. *These will change* as time goes by and more samples enter the verification. No model, nor the NHC, has beaten NHC's own average errors at any lead time.

1192

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Wow, "super" needs a break. No, AI isnt "super intelligence". There is no such thing as a "Super El Niño". There is no such thing as a "Super Hurricane". These things already have established descriptive terms for them, let's just use those.

88611

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Even with very aggressive intensity forecasts from the National Hurricane Center, they have had a hard time keeping with what Hurricane Polo is *actually* doing. This is some EXTREME rapid intensification! On this plot, the thick black line is the observed intensity, colored lines are NHC forecasts.

27221

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Happy Equinox! ☀️🌎 First day of Autumn in the northern hemisphere, first day of Spring in the southern hemisphere. Roughly equal daylight and darkness for everyone in the world.

13012

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

With a whopping 1.025 ACE units, Fay just scored the most active day of the entire Atlantic hurricane season so far. (For context, a 100-kt Category 3 hurricane generates 4 ACE units in a day.) That brings the total ACE this season up to 6.1, or 7.5% of average for the date.

1243

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

There still has not been a hurricane this season. The previous record-latest first hurricane formation was September 11 (during the more reliable satellite era that began in the mid-1970s), so that record continues to be broken every day.

bmcnoldy.blogspot.com

Fay continues the record hurricane-free Atlantic hurricane season

Updates and summaries on tropical Atlantic activity... including easterly waves, tropical storms, subtropical storms, and hurricanes.

1177

Reposted by Brian McNoldy

Prof. Anthea Butler @antheabutler.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

You do understand that everything he's doing to Washington DC is about fortifying the city when he decides he's not leaving office

70488832581

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

One of the most infamous and violent hurricane landfalls in recent memory occurred 9 years ago today: Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico (September 20, 2017). The animation ends abruptly when the radar was obliterated by the upper-end Category 4 hurricane.

0368

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Today is the centennial of The Great Miami Hurricane's landfall in Miami. Approximately 12 days after exiting the African coast, a large Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph sustained winds slammed into southeast Florida around sunrise on September 18, 1926. bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/miam...

23713

Reposted by Brian McNoldy

Bryan Norcross @bnorcross.com · 17/09/2026

LIVE PODCAST TODAY AT 4 PM ET: Join me along with Miami historian Dr. Paul George and University of Miami researcher Brian McNoldy talking about the Great Miami Hurricane, what it means for today, and this hurricane season. Taking your questions. Live on most social media. See you then!

162

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

A great post on the centennial of the Great Miami Hurricane landfall, with several haunting photos and quotes from people and newspapers at the time.

0173

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

The storm that would come to be known as “The Great Miami Hurricane” was 1 day and 450 miles from #Miami on the morning of September 17, 1926. It was a very large Category 4 hurricane that had just passed over and devastated the Turks and Caicos Islands...

1145

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Invest #98L has been lurking east of Bermuda for a few days and at least has the potential to become the next named storm, Fay, but maybe even the first hurricane of the season.

bmcnoldy.blogspot.com

Hints of a first hurricane on the horizon?

Updates and summaries on tropical Atlantic activity... including easterly waves, tropical storms, subtropical storms, and hurricanes.

2289

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is down to 6% of average for the date, and will reach 5% on September 25 *if* no tropical storms form in the meantime. [1/2]

1204

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

100 years ago this morning, the storm that would come to be known as “The Great Miami Hurricane” was 2 days and 750 miles from #Miami. It was a strengthening Category 4 hurricane located north of the Dominican Republic. [1/4]

1155

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

100 years ago this morning, the storm that would come to be known as “The Great Miami Hurricane” was 3 days and 1100 miles from #Miami. It reached Category 3 hurricane intensity on this date as it passed north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

1134

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

The September update from the NMME (North American Multi-Model Ensemble) for the upcoming record-breaking El Niño is unchanged from the previous month's update. It still shows a peak of +2.84°C this Fall and Winter.

1135

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

I know it's crickets out there in the Atlantic, but I wanted to put this Starter Pack back out there as a reminder. Also, I may be missing some folks who should be in here, so please let me know!

22713

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

100 years ago today, "the tropical cyclone of September 14-22 was first observed on the morning of the 14th northeast of St. Kitts." This was the initial contact with what is known as the "West Indian Hurricane of September 14-22, 1926", or also the "Great #Miami Hurricane of 1926".

1183

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

One week before the centennial of the Great Miami Hurricane landfall... here's a new figure for the webpage: The 1926 hurricane had approximately 6 times more energy than King and 4 times more than Andrew at their landfalls in southeast Florida. Details at bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/miam...

0185

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

The ACE this year is at just 4.4, which is 7% of average for the date. The last time a season had less ACE than this year was 1941 and a handful of years before that. However, those were all prior to the satellite era. In the satellite era, this is the slowest start to a hurricane season on record.

bmcnoldy.blogspot.com

Record slow hurricane season reaches new milestone

Updates and summaries on tropical Atlantic activity... including easterly waves, tropical storms, subtropical storms, and hurricanes.

13014

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

25 years ago, on the morning of September 11, 2001, Category 1 Hurricane Erin was located just off the northeast U.S. coast. It was being ushered out to sea by a strong cold front, which brought clear skies and northerly winds to the northeastern states...

12410

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

Not sure how I had the bandwidth to recognize and create this on that early Thursday morning, but it was a moment of amazing coincidence on September 7, 2017. x.com/BMcNoldy/sta...

x.com

Brian McNoldy (@BMcNoldy) on X

Absolutely uncanny copy-paste from 7 years ago. Very bizarre. #Irma #Jose #Katia #Igor #Julia #Karl

3305

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

This Atlantic hurricane season, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is at 4.4 through September 6. That is the lowest in the satellite era. [1/2]

1245

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

As of Labor Day, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) this Atlantic hurricane season has dwindled to just 9% of average for the date, and there's no sign of activity in the foreseeable future. We will easily set a new record for the latest hurricane formation too (currently September 11).

1327

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

9 years ago today, on the morning of September 5, #Irma intensified to a Category 5 hurricane for the first time as it approached the Leeward Islands. It maintained that status for an incredible 78 hours of terror. A collection of satellite & radar loops: bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/irma...

1236

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

"Year-round daylight saving time in the United States? We tried that. It’s a bad idea. What was intended as a 16-month experiment, with an eye toward making it permanent, was ended by incredibly outspoken popular demand after 10 months. Lesson learned."

santafenewmexican.com

Daylight saving time push should go dark

Year-round daylight saving time in the United States? We tried that. It’s a bad idea.

1203

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

The monthly sea surface temperature data are in from August, so we have another update to the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) which is an average of the past three months... so Jun-Aul-Aug. That value is up to +1.36°C and climbing quickly. That puts it in the "moderate" #ElNiño category.

0213

Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

A 39-hour radar loop of Tropical Storm #Edouard organizing and intensifying up to landfall, then maintaining its tropical cyclone structure well inland due to strong inflow from the warm, humid Gulf of Mexico.

56723