iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Mafalda Pratas

Jacob Montgomery @jacobmontgomery.bsky.social · 03/12/2025

I think we can all agree: "There is only one way to do credible research, and it happens to be the way that I myself do research."

2121

Reposted by Mafalda Pratas

Sean Gailmard @sean-gailmard.bsky.social · 02/12/2025

Meanwhile scholars will hit the panel data FE regression with the incantation “parallel trends,” that literally means “I assume away non-causal explanations for a correlation,” and think we learned something scientifically special.

1151

Reposted by Mafalda Pratas

Sean Gailmard @sean-gailmard.bsky.social · 02/12/2025

“I personally can’t think of a way” is deficient. “We collectively can’t think of a way” is not that. Also note the identifying assumption in, say, IV regression is not doing anything besides this. “We can’t think of a way for the instrument to directly affect the DV” is actually the argument.

121

Reposted by Mafalda Pratas

Sean Gailmard @sean-gailmard.bsky.social · 02/12/2025

This is an interesting paper. I continue to sense that we as a field have concluded, either you have an identification strategy as defined here, or you don’t have a valid causal claim. And that is really not true.

34415

Reposted by Mafalda Pratas

Daniel Schlozman @daschloz.bsky.social · 02/11/2025

Take: moderating in swing districts in 2026 highly likely to work; moderating partywide in 2026 has some evidence it will work; moderating partywide for the long term as a strategy to rid off Trumpism has way more perils and risks than proponents acknowledge.

071

Reposted by Mafalda Pratas

David Karol @davidkarol.bsky.social · 02/03/2025

Not new! In The Political Beliefs of Americans (1967) Cantril & Free found that Americans were "ideological conservatives" opposed to abstract "big government", but "operational liberals" for lots of specific spending. It doesn't help that they have no clue re distribution of spending.

48831

Mafalda Pratas @mafaldapratas.bsky.social · 07/02/2025

Last week, the CDU/CSU breached the so-called "firewall" and attempted to pass a restrictive immigration bill with the AfD. How did German voters react? Together with Chris Wratil and Jorge Fernandes, we ran a survey with 2000 German voters to find out! Read thread below for insights ⬇️ 1/n

1196

Reposted by Mafalda Pratas

Christopher Wratil 🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine @chriswratil.bsky.social · 07/02/2025

You wonder how the CDU/CSU playing with the "Brandmauer" to AfD last week has influenced German voters? @mafaldapratas.bsky.social @jmfernandes86.bsky.social & I have you covered. We surveyed sample of 2,000 German voters. 🧵with first results 👇. Spoiler: It did not go down as well as CDU/CSU hoped.

bundestag.de

Deutscher Bundestag - Unionsgesetz zur Zustrombegrenzung mit knapper Mehrheit abgelehnt

Der Bundestag hat das sogenannte Zustrombegrenzungsgesetz der CDU/CSU-Fraktion (20/12804) mit knapper Mehrheit abgelehnt. Gegen die Initiative votierten am Freitag, 31. Januar 2025,...

416279

Reposted by Mafalda Pratas

Jorge M. Fernandes @jmfernandes86.bsky.social · 21/01/2025

‼️ Hiring‼️ One postdoctoral position in my ERC Consolidator in Madrid. Application deadline: end of February. Job ad & details: tinyurl.com/3dwm96kb Come and join me and my team in sunny Madrid for 5 years of intensive research and lots of publications, traveling, and fun! Please share widely.

tinyurl.com

Dropbox

18950

Reposted by Mafalda Pratas

Time Spinner @spinny.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

sometimes representative democracy means you all choose one guy to chuck over the fence and charge the military

05113

Mafalda Pratas @mafaldapratas.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

Very proud of my dear husband @jmfernandes86.bsky.social, who just got a big ERC Consolidator Grant (2M€!) to study those we do not see and do not represent in European democracies. Many innovations, but I'm particularly excited about the move beyond the urban-rural cleavage. 🎉

0160

Mafalda Pratas @mafaldapratas.bsky.social · 18/08/2023

Transplanting this one from the other network, because it's so on point and so recurrent...

000