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Valentin Daur

@valentindaur.bsky.social
909 followers 338 following 34 posts

Senior Researcher @munsecconf.bsky.social studying public opinion on security politics. Formerly: Postdoc LMU Munich, PhD from Aarhus University. Public Opinion | Party Competition | Political Communication | Far Right Parties | Survey Experiments.

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Reposted by Valentin Daur
Munich Security Conference @munsecconf.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Am Rande des NATO-Gipfels sprach @tobiasbunde.bsky.social mit Welt über den Ausbau der Bündnisfähigkeiten: "Weniger Sorgen bereitet mir die Finanzierung als die Frage, wie wir die neuen Fähigkeiten organisieren und politisch steuern. Darüber sprechen wir viel zu wenig." Zum Artikel ⬇️
welt.de
Nato-Gipfel: „Deutschlands wachsende Bedeutung kann auch alte Ressentiments wecken“ - WELT
Auf dem Nato-Gipfel werden die Kosten der Allianz neu verteilt. Doch selbst wenn das gelingt, gibt es ein Problem, sagt Nato-Experte Tobias Bunde. Es geht um das Verständnis zwischen den USA und Europ...
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Tobias Risse @tobiasrisse.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
Check out our (w/ @chrisvsteinert.bsky.social) new article in the Journal of Conflict Resolution on how citizens and politicians weigh moral and instrumental concerns when forming attitudes toward arms exports. For more information, see abstract below or the full article: doi.org/10.1177/0022...
Trading Arms, Trading Values? Experimental Evidence on Attitudes Toward Arms Exports Among Citizens and Political Elites

Tobias Risse and Christoph Valentin Steinert

Foreign policy making involves balancing ethical values and instrumental concerns. Do politicians and citizens differ in how they weigh these factors when directly confronted with this trade-off? Focusing on attitudes toward arms exports, we argue that citizens, but not politicians, tend to prioritize human rights concerns over the political and economic benefits for their own states. We tested these arguments in four survey experiments among citizens and parliamentarians in the United Kingdom and Germany. We presented participants with fictitious arms deals and varied the human rights records of recipient regimes as well as the benefits of arms deals to assess how these factors influence attitudes toward arms exports. While we find substantial effects of both human rights violations and benefits on support for arms exports, their interaction remains insignificant across all samples. Hence, our findings yield no evidence for an elite-public gap in weighing ethical and instrumental concerns in foreign policy attitudes.
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Munich Security Conference @munsecconf.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
The #MSCreport 2026 is out now! 🐘 The world has entered a period of wrecking-ball politics. More than 80 years after construction began, the US-led post-1945 international order is now ⚠️ Under Destruction. Read our brand-new Munich Security Report: securityconference.org/en/publicati...
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Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 31/12/2025
My wish for 2026 is that politicians and political analysts realize that public opinion is endogenous to elite behavior, that polling single issues tells us nothing about electorally successful strategies, that politics means shaping public opinion and that popularism is the death of progressivism.
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Munich Security Conference @munsecconf.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
Our new Munich Security Analysis by @tobiasbunde.bsky.social and @valentindaur.bsky.social shows that Germans want a more self-confident policy toward great powers. Yet, this is only possible in cooperation with European partners. 📖 Read the full text here: securityconference.org/en/publicati...
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Munich Security Conference @munsecconf.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
📣 Nominations are now open for the John McCain Dissertation Award! Each year, we honor authors of exceptional doctoral dissertations on transatlantic relations. If you know a suitable candidate, submit your nomination by December 8. 🔗 securityconference.org/en/news/full...
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British Journal of Political Science @bjpols.bsky.social · 12/08/2025
NEW - Media Platforming and the Normalisation of Extreme Right Views - cup.org/4mmVIAL "exposure to uncritical interviews increases agreement with extreme statements and perceptions of broader support in the population" - @dianebolet.bsky.social & @florianfoos.bsky.social #OpenAccess
BJPolS abstract discussing the effects of extensive media exposure on public perceptions and normalization. It references specific research surveys conducted on Sky News UK and Australia, analyzing changes in public attitudes and policy effects due to media strategies.
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British Journal of Political Science @bjpols.bsky.social · 11/08/2025
NEW - How Mainstream Politicians Erode Norms - cup.org/4lfeHvD "we find that statements by mainstream politicians lead to more norm erosion than similar statements by radical-right politicians" - @valentimvicente.bsky.social, Elias Dinas & @dziblatt.bsky.social #OpenAccess
BJPolS abstract discussing the dynamics of mainstream and radical political rhetoric regarding anti-immigrant policies, highlighting differences in societal responses and enforcement norms based on the source of the rhetoric.
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Tobias Risse @tobiasrisse.bsky.social · 07/08/2025
🚨 Publication alert @fpajrnl.bsky.social In this article, I examine how democracy affects states' arms control preferences. I find that democracy facilitates support for conventional, but not nuclear arms control. For more info, see abstract below or full article: academic.oup.com/fpa/article/...
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Valentin Daur @valentindaur.bsky.social · 17/06/2025
Check out this new article by my friend and co-author @tobiasrisse.bsky.social! Amazing work!
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Alexander Wuttke @kunkakom.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
🚨 We're hiring! Join us at @LMU_Muenchen for the DFG-funded project "Democratic Persuasion: How to Make the Case for Democracy." Interested in making scholarly & societal impact? We’re looking for: 🔹 1 Postdoc (100%) 🔹 1 PhD researcher (70%) Starting: Oct 2025 | Apply by: July 8 More info ⬇️ (1/7)
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Annika Brockschmidt @ardenthistorian.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
Ich habe mit @tabouchadi.bsky.social für @volksverpetzer.de über den Forschungsstand zum Ausgrenzen rechtsextremer Parteien, ihrer Normalisierung in Politik und Medien und darüber gesprochen, was sich ändern muss, um die weitere Unterwanderung unserer Demokratie zu verhindern.
volksverpetzer.de
Klare Forschungslage: AfD Ausgrenzen funktioniert
Die Forschung widerspricht der Relativierung der Tagesschau: Eine Normalisierung der AfD stärkt Rechtsextremismus.
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Julian Garritzmann @garritzmannj.bsky.social · 17/04/2025
I AM HIRING 2 postdocs (5 years) in my @erc.europa.eu project "The Politics of the Latent Educational Cleavage" at @goetheuni.bsky.social @infer-frankfurt.bsky.social! German call: www.fb03.uni-frankfurt.de/170856927.pdf English call: www.goethe-university-frankfurt.de/170858269.pdf Please share
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Markus Kollberg @markuskollberg.bsky.social · 25/03/2025
Does Mainstream Populism Work❓ I answer this question in a new paper officially out at @psrm.bsky.social❗ Check out the paper here: doi.org/10.1017/psrm... Key take-aways in the thread below 🧵⬇️:
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Sofia Ammassari @ammassarisofia.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
I’m over the moon that my 1st book, based on my PhD, will be published w/ Oxford University Press. “Grassroots Women in the Populist Radical Right” investigates women’s involvement in PRR parties as party members. I already have a full draft, so I hope I can share this labour of love w/ you soon 💜
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Vicente Valentim @valentimvicente.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
Very happy that our paper (w/ @dziblatt.bsky.social & E Dinas) has been accepted @bjpols.bsky.social . We've seen the center right increasingly adopt far-right rhetoric. Our experiment in 🇩🇪 finds that this erodes anti-prejudice norms *more* than when the far-right employs similar rhetoric. 1/3
Abstract: How does anti-immigrant rhetoric by mainstream politicians affect norms of tolerance? How does this compare to similar statements made by radical-right politicians? Drawing on experimental evidence, we find that statements by mainstream politicians lead to more norm erosion than similar statements by radical-right politicians. Subsample analyses suggests that this is because statements by mainstream-right politicians erode norm perceptions of right-wing individuals, while those by radical-right politicians induce backlash among left-wing individuals, who hold closer to the norm in place. The latter effect (backlash by the left) disappears when similar statements are made by mainstream right politicians. We argue that this difference occurs because mainstream politicians represent the views of a larger part of the population or have a higher status. Our results highlight the pivotal role of mainstream politicians in enforcing or eroding democratic norms, and that similar political statements can have different effects depending on their sender.
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Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 26/02/2025
Im Interview mit @tobiwan.bsky.social vom Tagesspiegel durfte ich darüber sprechen wie das Thema Migration den Wahlkampf geprägt hat und wie vor allem das Verhalten der anderen Parteien dazu beigetragen hat, die AfD zu stärken. www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/am-e...
tagesspiegel.de
„Am Ende wählen die Leute das Original“: Wie der Migrationswahlkampf die AfD gestärkt hat
Keine Partei hat bei der Bundestagswahl so viel dazugewonnen wie die AfD. Ein Experte erklärt, warum vor allem die Rechtspopulisten vom Top-Thema Migration profitieren konnten – und was man dagegen tu...
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Cas Mudde @casmudde.bsky.social · 17/02/2025
Wichtiger Aufsatz von @jwmueller-pu.bsky.social
merkur-zeitschrift.de
Was heißt Normalisierung? - Merkur
„Normalisierung“ ist zu einer Art politischem Schimpfwort avanciert oder gar zu dem, was Reinhart Koselleck asymmetrische Gegenbegriffe nannte:  Normalisieren tun immer nur andere, man selbst normalis...
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Martin Gross @martingross.bsky.social · 17/02/2025
‼️PostDoc (100% 2.5 years) @lmumuenchen.bsky.social @dfg.de project "How Mainstream Parties Deal with Conflict: Rules, Practices, Media Exposure" (PIs: Nicole Bolleyer & I) ⏰Start: 01.10.2025 ⏳Deadline: 06.04.2025 🎤Interviews: 14./15.05.2025 job-portal.lmu.de/jobposting/1... #Academicsky #Polisky
Job ad for a postdoctoral position at LMU Munich.
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Sofia Ammassari @ammassarisofia.bsky.social · 06/02/2025
My @polstudies.bsky.social article on stigma & grassroots activism in populist radical right (PRR) parties has now page numbers! journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.... Drawing on the 1st ever comparative survey of PRR party members, I ask how stigma affects their participation in party activities.
journals.sagepub.com
Deterrent or Stimulus? How Perceived Societal Stigma Affects Participation in Populist Radical Right Parties - Sofia Ammassari, 2025
While the effects of political stigma on populist radical right parties have been extensively investigated, we know little about the impact of societal stigma o...
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Edoardo Viganò @eavigano.bsky.social · 04/02/2025
🚨 Happy to see one of my PhD papers out at JEPOP 📚 I examine whether MPs' attention to local issues in parliamentary activities affects their re-election chances in party-centred contexts www.tandfonline.com/eprint/G2HVG... Ungated version here: eavigano.github.io/papers/jepop...
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Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 01/02/2025
Für den @verfassungsblog.de habe ich aufgeschrieben was diese Woche im Bundestag bedeutet. Der Höhepunkt der programmatischen Anpassung an die AfD. Ein Dammbruch der zu ihrer Normalisierung und Legitimation führt. Eine dunkle Stunde für die deutsche Demokratie. verfassungsblog.de/aus-dem-abse...
verfassungsblog.de
Aus dem Abseits in die Mitte der Demokratie: Die Normalisierung der radikalen Rechten im Bundestag und ihre Konsequenzen
Nun ist es passiert. Initiiert von Friedrich Merz – dem Kanzlerkandidaten der Union – verabschiedet der Deutsche Bundestag am 29. Januar 2025 Anträge zur Migrationspolitik mit den Stimmen der CDU/CSU,...
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Vicente Valentim @valentimvicente.bsky.social · 30/01/2025
On this note, here is a thread with recent research on what normalization is and how it happens. It includes links to references, from my work and that of others. I tried to tag the authors whenever they are on here, in case you are interested in following their work. 1/8
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Valentin Daur @valentindaur.bsky.social · 30/01/2025
How will voters react to CDU shifting away from its strict "no collaboration"-stance toward AfD? During my PhD, I sought to answer this question. Sooner than I had hoped, it is no longer mostly hypothetical. A thread… (1/6) doi.org/10.1017/S000...
doi.org
Legitimize or Delegitimize? Mainstream Party Strategy toward (Former) Pariah Parties and How Voters Respond | American Political Science Review | Cambridge Core
Legitimize or Delegitimize? Mainstream Party Strategy toward (Former) Pariah Parties and How Voters Respond
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American Political Science Review @apsrjournal.bsky.social · 12/12/2024
Just published on APSR First View: "Legitimize or Delegitimize? Mainstream Party Strategy toward (Former) Pariah Parties and How Voters Respond" by Valentin Daur @valentindaur.bsky.social. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
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Roman Senninger @rsenninger.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
The super election year is ending, with many winners and losers. Our new @thejop.bsky.social paper, (@henrikseeberg.bsky.social, @martinbaekgaard.bsky.social ) asks: How do winning and losing candidates see elections? Spoiler: Losers are more concerned about fairness. Link: doi.org/10.1086/734240
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Valentin Daur @valentindaur.bsky.social · 10/12/2024
🚨 PUBLICATION ALERT 🚨 Excited to share that my article has just been published at @apsrjournal.bsky.social! It examines voter responses to mainstream party legitimization of (former) pariah parties. A thread 👇1/n... doi.org/10.1017/S000...
doi.org
Legitimize or Delegitimize? Mainstream Party Strategy toward (Former) Pariah Parties and How Voters Respond | American Political Science Review | Cambridge Core
Legitimize or Delegitimize? Mainstream Party Strategy toward (Former) Pariah Parties and How Voters Respond
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Valentin Daur @valentindaur.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
🚨 Job Alert 🚨: Postdoc Opportunity @ LMU Munich! Join the ERC-funded CIVILSPACE project. We're looking for a postdoc with: 📊 Experience in survey experiments 🤝 Interest in civil society, non-profit, organization or interest group research ⏰ Application deadline: December 8, 2024
job-portal.lmu.de
Postdoctoral Researcher (m/f/x)
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