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Thomas Sampson

@thomsampson.bsky.social
11K followers 614 following 340 posts

International Trade. Brexit. Associate Professor, LSE Economics.

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Reposted by Thomas Sampson
Max Nathan @maxnathan.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Re Your First Home - a reminder that H2B * Raised house prices overall * Helped developer profits * In London, raised prices, not supply * In more affordable areas, supply up but no price effect Govt will have to think hard about benefits vs lessons learned, as Angela Rayner put it today.
On the economic impacts of mortgage credit expansion policies: Evidence from help to buy / Felipe Carozzi, Christian A.L. Hilber, Xiaolun Yu / Journal of Urban Economics, 2024



Abstract
We take advantage of two spatial discontinuities in Britain's Help to Buy (HtB) scheme to explore the effectiveness and distributional implications of mortgage credit expansion policies. Employing a Difference-in-Discontinuities design, we find that HtB significantly increased house prices and had no detectable effect on construction volumes in severely supply constrained and unaffordable Greater London. Conversely, HtB did increase construction numbers without a noticeable effect on prices near the English/Welsh border, an affordable area with comparably lax supply conditions. While HtB did not help would-be-buyers in already unaffordable areas, it boosted the financial performance of developers participating in the scheme.
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Thomas Sampson @thomsampson.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Sam is right. It always comes back to gravity
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Journal of International Economics @jintlecon.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
📢 The International Seminar on Trade (ISoT) returns for its 3rd edition! 📍 ifo Institute, Munich 🗓️ 20–21 May 2027 📅 Deadline: 10 Jan 2027 Co-organised by the Journal of International Economics, LMU Munich, CESifo, ifo Institute, World Bank & CEPR 🔗 www.sciencedirect.com/journal/jour...
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Centre for Economic Performance @cep-lse.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
The confusion surrounding US trade policy was almost as damaging to imports as the tariffs themselves, say Kalina Manova (UCL), Dennis Novy (CEP, Warwick), Thomas Sampson (CEP, LSE), and Aaron Tang (UCL) for @voxeu.org . cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org
Tariff confusion
The year 2025 was unprecedented in the frequency, complexity, and volatility of US trade policy interventions. This column uses a new database tracking US tariff announcements during the year to show ...
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Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
"Tariff confusion" cepr.org/voxeu/column... via @voxeu "confusion about the current state of tariff policy led to a decline in US imports that was similar in size to the reduction caused by tariff increases alone"
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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 08/09/2026
K Manova, D Novy, @thomsampson.bsky.social, & A Tang show that confusion about the current state of tariff policy led to a decline in US imports similar in size to the reduction caused by tariff increases alone. Confusion doubled the negative impact of tariffs. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky
This figure plots the decline in US imports by origin country due to higher tariffs (blue) and tariff confusion (number of announcements, orange) in the month with each country’s highest average US tariff across products. Total import decline: mean 13%, standard deviation 8%. Share due to tariff confusion: mean 50%, standard deviation 15%.

The year 2025 was unprecedented in the frequency, complexity, and volatility of US trade policy interventions. This column uses a new database tracking US tariff announcements during the year to show that confusion about the current state of tariff policy led to a decline in US imports that was similar in size to the reduction caused by tariff increases alone, meaning that confusion doubled the negative impact of tariffs. Product customisation, relationship trust, and partner reputation can help firms maintain trade activity during information shocks.
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Thomas Sampson @thomsampson.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Tariff confusion reduced US imports in 2025 New VoxEU column on my paper with Kalina Manova, @dennisnovy.bsky.social & Aaron Tang cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org
Tariff confusion
The year 2025 was unprecedented in the frequency, complexity, and volatility of US trade policy interventions. This column uses a new database tracking US tariff announcements during the year to show ...
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Torsten Bell @torstenbell.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
So the best the Conservatives have to offer on the economy is… Liz Truss’s biggest cheer leader. No learning curve at all.
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Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
I haven’t been posting much because I’m trying to be off social media — and so should you. But I’m making an exception bc this is wild: the president of the US is openly laying the groundwork to try and steal an election. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/24/u...
nytimes.com
Trump Has Quietly Sought Control Over Postal Service to Transform U.S. Elections (Gift Article)
That effort got new attention on Monday, when the Supreme Court allowed preparations for mail voting curbs to proceed. The justices said it is not a final determination on the order’s legality.
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Sophie E. Hill @sophieehill.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
When Jess Phillips resigned in May, she cited Starmer's failure to adopt existing CSAM-blocking technology as one of her core grievances. She was likely referring to software made by SafeToNet, a company that she and Peter Kyle have repeatedly promoted. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Read all the ministers' resignation letters in full
Ministers including Safeguarding Minister Jess Phillips have resigned over Sir Keir Starmer's leadership.
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Duncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
Very good. www.ft.com/content/936c... How Burnham can curb Britain’s tax-dodging shops
ft.com
How Burnham can curb Britain’s tax-dodging shops
The prime minister is missing a simple trick in his campaign to revive high streets: enforcing the basic laws of doing business
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Tony Yates @t0nyyates.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Labour absolutely complicit in this disaster.
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Dani Rodrik @drodrik.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
My thoughts on where Andy Burnham’s (and the Left’s in general) priorities on the economy should be futureoftheleft.substack.com/p/the-left-m...
futureoftheleft.substack.com
The Left must focus on where the jobs will be, not where it wishes they would be
A series on the politics of production.
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Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Glad someone senior from the sector is pushing back. Labour MPs need to understand the serious real anger from graduates and the people who produce them. And the dangerous financial situation they have allowed to fester, or indeed worsened, in one of Britain’s leading sectors.
ft.com
Labour has harmed universities as much as Trump, London School of Economics head says
LSE vice-chancellor Larry Kramer points to domestic student fees freeze, international student limits and rise in employers’ national insurance
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Thomas Sampson @thomsampson.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
How has tariff confusion affected US imports? Kalina Manova talks to voxeu@voxeu.org about our research on the trade disruption caused by Trump’s 2025 tariffs
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Gaia Vince @wanderinggaia.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Burnham has a chance to reset norms and make racism shameful again. He should make it a priority
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Paul Bernal @paulbernal.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
"[N]o UEFA national teams will participate in any FIFA competition for so long as these proposals remain alive, unless this proposal has been abandoned in its entirety and binding assurances have been given that FIFA will never again open its governance or competitions to private ownership."
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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 27/07/2026
Assaf Razin, who passed away in July 2026, had a distinguished career that spanned more than five decades. Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman highlight his influential research on international trade, the welfare state, migration, fiscal policy, and more. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky
During a distinguished career that spanned more than five decades, Assaf Razin, who passed away in July 2026, established himself as one of the leading international economists of his generation. This column describes how, across a range of topics including international trade, international finance, fiscal policy, taxation, migration, the welfare state, and financial crises, he combined theoretical innovation with an abiding concern for policy and for the ways in which globalisation expands national opportunities while constraining national choices.
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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
I agree with @thomsampson.bsky.social here: we don't know how much individual reforms will raise productivity, so do try to do as many of them as possible. (And trade policy is a supply-side reform implemented by central government.) www.cfmsurvey.org/listsurveys/...
cfmsurvey.org
Devolution and UK Policy Alternatives
Experts responding to the CfM-NIESR survey downplayed the potential that greater devolution has on UK economic growth relative to other policy approaches
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Thomas Sampson @thomsampson.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
Is there an option not to award the World Cup this year?
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Philippe Auclair @philippeauclair.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
English FA president, Debbie Hewitt, paid a quarter of a million USD per year for saying "yes, great idea" in Gianni Infantino's Fifa Council, pictured with some friends in NYC last night. It's not just Infantino who is the problem.
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Thomas Sampson @thomsampson.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
👎 Abandoning the Blair-Brown commitment to overseas aid is high on my list of the Starmer government's failings
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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
Interesting piece by @econromesh.bsky.social. I always thought the right frame was the trade-off between (formal) sovereignty and living standards, and we emphasised that from the start. But the Leave campaign was effective with 'wrong then, wrong now' and so forth 1/ blogs.lse.ac.uk/impactofsoci...
Economic hubris, political nemesis
There was another mismatch too. Economists believed they were answering the central question facing the country: would Brexit make the country more or less prosperous?

Many voters were asking a different question altogether. Who should make UK laws? How should immigration be controlled? What kind of country do we want to be?

These are not questions that economics can settle, nor should it pretend to. Looking back, one of our mistakes was to assume that because the economic consequences were important, they would also be decisive.
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Centre for Economic Performance @cep-lse.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
Despite a near total academic consensus on the negative consequences of Brexit, voters were not swayed. In a new LSE Impact blog, @econromesh.bsky.social (Economics Observatory, CEP) argues economists must communicate findings as carefully as they produce them. blogs.lse.ac.uk/impactofsoci...
blogs.lse.ac.uk
Did Brexit make us better at communicating economics? - LSE Impact
The referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU was a watershed moment for research communication. Despite a near total academic consensus on the negative economic consequences of a vote to Leave, thi...
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Torsten Bell @torstenbell.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Brilliant news about a brilliant economist. You always learn something from a conversation with Silvana. And usually have a lovely time doing so www.imf.org/en/news/arti...
imf.org
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva Names Silvana Tenreyro as IMF Economic Counsellor and Head of Research Department
Washington, DC – July 7, 2026: Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), announced today the appointment of Silvana Tenreyro as the Fund’s Economic Counsellor a...
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Alan Beattie @alanbeattie.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
To be clear, three people can be absolute legends tonight. 1. Pochettino benches Balogun 2. Balogun goes down with "serious leg injury" early doors, stretchered off 3. Ref sends off Balogun in first minute, straight red for "looking at me in a funny way". None will happen, but 3 would be funniest.
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Thomas Sampson @thomsampson.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Pretty disappointed by Pochettino in all this
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Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
I am sure Infantino has done worse but he really must go. There should be an attempt to create various ways to normalise, amplify disrespect for him everwhere he goes
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Sophie E. Hill @sophieehill.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Researchers at two Russell Group universities published scientific research funded by an "anonymous donation". But the money really came from an industry group with a clear conflict of interest 🥸 After 10 months of "investigation", Wiley has done... nothing. No retraction, no EOC, no correction.
Wiley Research Integrity
To: Sophie Hill
Jul 1 at 15:06
Dear Dr. Hill,
We regret the significant delays since our last message. We are working with the university and all other stakeholders to decide on an adequate solution to these concerns, and further delays have left this resolution hanging.
Unfortunately, we cannot provide more of a timeline for this resolution. We will however notify you once a decision has been reached.
Best wishes,
The Integrity Assurance & Case Resolution team
WILEY
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Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
I for one am proud that @kingscollegelondon.bsky.social's student body reflects the diversity of our city - something that was not remotely the case when I was an undergraduate.
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Thomas Sampson @thomsampson.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
Tariff Confusion New working paper with Manova, Novy & Tang #EconSky Study how US trade policy changes in 2025 affected US imports Key finding is chaotic policy making generated confusion, which amplified fall in imports from higher tariffs 1/ cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/downloa...
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Centre for Economic Performance @cep-lse.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
Changes in US tariff policy in 2025 reduced US imports – and the effect was amplified by confusion created by frequent and complex policy announcements, our new discussion paper, Tariff Confusion, shows. Read the full paper here: cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/dp2195.… UCL
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Thomas Sampson @thomsampson.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
Tariff Confusion New working paper with Manova, Novy & Tang #EconSky Study how US trade policy changes in 2025 affected US imports Key finding is chaotic policy making generated confusion, which amplified fall in imports from higher tariffs 1/ cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/downloa...
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LSE Blogs @lseblogs.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
4️⃣ The evidence is conclusive: Brexit has been an economic failure, shows @thomsampson.bsky.social @cep-lse.bsky.social on @lsepoliticsblog.bsky.social
blogs.lse.ac.uk
Brexit has been an economic failure | LSE British Politics
There is ample evidence that Brexit has damaged the UK’s economy.Putting up trade barriers, higher import prices and uncertainty have made the UK poorer.
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LSE British Politics and Policy @lsepoliticsblog.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Brexit has been an economic failure, argues @thomsampson.bsky.social. open.substack.com/pub/lsebriti...
open.substack.com
Brexit has been an economic failure
by Thomas Sampson
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Thomas Sampson @thomsampson.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
How has Brexit affected the UK economy? Badly Higher prices, lower investment, less trade, lower growth. I wrote a blog for @lsepoliticsblog.bsky.social summarising evidence on the economic effects of Brexit blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
blogs.lse.ac.uk
Brexit has been an economic failure | LSE British Politics
There is ample evidence that Brexit has damaged the UK’s economy.Putting up trade barriers, higher import prices and uncertainty have made the UK poorer.
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Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
I'd just add that key issue with care workers now is not visas, but Mahmood's "earned settlement" proposals whose main impact will be to expel care workers and their families who have been here for several years. Both Streeting and Burnham should make their positions on this clear.
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
This is no more about the details of immigration policy than the progroms my great great grandparents fled were about Jews committing crimes. It's straightforward racist violence and it needs the strongest possible response.
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Anne Applebaum @anneapplebaum.wsocial.eu · 09/06/2026
Shocking and offensive, also for the fact that FIFA doesn't protest www.politico.com/news/2026/06...
politico.com
World Cup referee from Somalia barred from entering US
The decision comes amid concern that Trump administration policies will hamper preparations for the global sporting event.
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SpinningHugo @spinninghugo.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
The UK government and the EU need to do something together about X. Now. It is pushing racist nonsense that is now bleeding into the mainstream media.
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Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
The economics of Brexit, 10 years on. My summary. ukandeu.ac.uk/brexit-ten-y...
ukandeu.ac.uk
Brexit ten years on: the economy - UK in a changing Europe
Ahead of the ten year anniversary of the EU referendum on 23 June, UK in a Changing Europe experts have written a...
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Jake Wright @bcnjake.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
Once again: German universities were the envy of the world before the Nazis rose to power and took an ideological wrecking ball to the entire enterprise. If you want to know how long it took for German universities to recover… they haven’t.
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Steph Richards She/Her @stephrichards.bsky.social · 30/05/2026
The EHRC is meant to protect our human rights. Instead, they have drafted a manual for exclusion and harassment -one that explicitly admits it will have profoundly negative impacts on many trans people's lives at every level. Stripping Away the Power of the Law 6/17
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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
Revealing confusion here. Social care is a lottery - you might need a lot, you might keel over. People don't self-insure because you might keel over. People want to pass on wealth to their children, but the current model punishes inheritance for the children of parents who need a lot. 1/
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Duncan Hothersall @dhothersall.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
It is hard to overstate the egregiousness of this failure. The body whose statutory duty is to protect the human rights of, and prevent discrimination against, trans people has published exclusionary rules for trans people under the aegis of a government run by the party which created those duties.
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Dorian Lynskey @dorianlynskey.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
This government’s defining quality is cowardice and now it has wobbled its way to a policy that 10 years ago was confined to the most extreme Republicans. Shameful
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Ben Goldsborough MP @bengoldsborough.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
🧵 I’m extremely concerned by reports the government is exploring an “unofficial” supermarket price capping policy. Supermarkets already operate on razor thin margins. The CMA found average grocery margins were just 1.8% in 2022/23. 1/7
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Stephanie Rickard @sjrickard.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Too long; didn't read? 👇 Come hear it in person instead at LSE on Wed 20 May at 6:30pm. Full details here: www.lse.ac.uk/events/trade-2
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
Maybe the government should do something about corrupt foreign influence in British politics?
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Stephanie Rickard @sjrickard.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
‪Trade is under strain. Understanding why demands more than one lens. To move beyond the headlines, check out our new special issue in LSE Public Policy: ppr.lse.ac.uk/16/volume/4/... Academically rigorous. Accessible to all. Huge thanks to my fellow editor and co-author @thomsampson.bsky.social
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