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Roger Filmyer

@synolect.com
263 followers 161 following 179 posts

Boston-Based Beep Booper. BA & MS New College of Florida. If your reference # starts with "18.", it's (probably) not my fault.

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George Pearkes @peark.es · 01/10/2026
IE is out here skeeting bond market analysis using potato-quality pics of Bloomberg Mobile on another phone's cracked screen, I am in AWE.
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Armin Ronacher @mitsuhiko.at · 24/05/2026
Has been a while since I wrote about agentic engineering, so this time around some learnings of maintaining Pi as a junior maintainer to @mariozechner.at lucumr.pocoo.org/2026/5/24/pi...
lucumr.pocoo.org
Building Pi With Pi
Learnings from post-AI Open Source and how we’re approaching this so far.
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 22/05/2026
Let me get this straight: a bunch of Australians were trying to sell burritos in Chicago and it didn’t go well? Shocked. Just flabbergasted.
Guzman Y Gomez Gives Up on US in Blow to Overseas Ambitions (1)
Summary by Bloomberg Al
• Guzman y Gomez Ltd. is closing its Chicago restaurants and exiting the US due to the business requiring significantly more time and capital than expected.
• The company said results so far have "not been acceptable" and it will take a charge of $30 million to $40 million for quitting the US.
• Underlying earnings from the company's Australian business will be approximately A$85 million for the year ending June, a jump of 29% from the prior year.
By Angus Whitley
05/21/2026 19:22:09 [BN]
(Bloomberg) -- Australian burrito chain Guzman y
Gomez Ltd. said it's closing its Chicago restaurants and exiting the US, a strategic about-turn that represents a major blow to the brand's international ambitions.
The US business will require significantly more time and capital than the company expected before it can deliver adequate sales, Guzman y Gomez said Friday.
Results so far have "not been acceptable," the company said. It will take a charge of $30 million to $40 million for quitting the US.
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Adam Serwer @adamserwer.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
Racism is real, but race is fake. www.nytimes.com/2026/05/15/u...
nytimes.com
A Family Secret No More
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amos @fasterthanli.me · 06/05/2026
I'm glad to hear that Google Slides is able to create Slides (albeit in beta)
Slide (Beta) on the Google Slides product page
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cee @cee.wtf · 03/05/2026
you need to remember to mist your claude daily and provide it sphagnum moss so it can self regulate its wetness
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Matt Darling @besttrousers.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Regular reminder that every time we are in a position to evaluate "signaling" vs. "human capital" models of education, "human capital" wins hands down.
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Roger Filmyer @synolect.com · 20/03/2026
H/t @arpitrage.bsky.social for the callback. Was it all priced in, this whole time?
A quote tweet by Arpit Gupta (@arpitrage):
Original tweet - "Investors are now betting overall US inflation over the next 12 months will surge above 5%. Implied inflation rate from 1 year breakeven, per Bloomberg" by Mike Dorning, with a Bloomberg graph showing US inflation swaps showing a sharp rise to over 5% inflation by March 2027.
Quoted tweet - "You may not like it, but this is unbelievable forecasting performance" from Arpit Gupta, including a screenshot of a Larry Summers tweet from August of 2023 juxtaposing a graph of inflation from 1966 to 1982 (with 2 inflation peaks, the first around 1974, a return to stability, and then a sharp rise in 1978 to a huge peak around 1980), with a graph of inflation from 2013-2023, showing a large peak in 2021 coinciding with the post-COVID economic recovery. The implication is clear, that inflation should somehow spike again starting in early 2026... Pure fantasy.
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Roger Filmyer @synolect.com · 23/02/2026
"I can't see out my window right now, but the last time I could, the weather was fine, so I'm assuming it hasn't snowed and the weather is fine right now"
A snow-covered window
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diego@estupido.fyi @estupido.fyi · 03/01/2026
media.tenor.com
a close up of a woman 's face with a caption that says estupido !
ALT: a close up of a woman 's face with a caption that says estupido !
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lauren @lauren.rotatingsandwiches.com · 03/01/2026
this is all happening because 80,000 people in the 6 states where votes actually count googled "joe bidon still presdinant?" on election day morning
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YIMBYonese Liberation Army @dingbattitude.bsky.social · 25/09/2025
Systematically in the US we see outcomes where a bad status quo is selected over an imperfect improvement because the failures of a bad status quo cannot be laid at the feet of any specific person.
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DilDog 🅅 @dildog.l0pht.com · 09/08/2025
anyone working in security knows that tools can be used for good or for evil but dont forget they are often used for stupid
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Bill @bill-of-lefts.bsky.social · 08/08/2025
It’s funny how the woo woo people said for years that big pharma was holding back a cancer cure because treatment was more profitable, and then they went and created those conditions through their own death-drive idiocy
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Nilo @nilo.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 11/06/2025
It remains so funny to me how many people who claim to be socialists thought the Biden Administration was a disaster for the working class when the objective truth is it was a disaster for the bosses.
Real average hourly earnings for all employees, with the trends for the 2013-2019 period and the June 2022-current periods shown. The level is priced in 1982-1984 dollars.Real average hourly earnings for production and non-supervisory employees, with the trend for the 2013-2019 period shown. The level is 2019 $Real average hourly earnings for managerial employees, with the trend for the 2013-2019 period shown. The level is 2019 $
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Roger Filmyer @synolect.com · 06/06/2025
Another @carlosmucha.bsky.social banger theory on Twitter/X: The White House has the authority to force any federal agency to detail their 1811s (Special Agents) to ICE. Agencies don't want their agents to be seen participating, so no jackets and yes face coverings. x.com/mucha_carlos...
Tweet from Carlos Mucha (@mucha_carlos):

It’s odd no one in ICE busts wears raid jacket. I reckon they are all federal agents (1811 criminal investigator is job category) but only a minority are ICE agents. WH has seconded 1811s from all over govt to ICE but parent agencies don’t want their names or agents’ faces on TV.From the CATO institute: "ICE Agents Routinely Mask Up When Seizing People—That’s Wrong" by Walter Olson

I had missed the story from two weeks ago about what happened after (apparent) agents of the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), one wearing a balaclava to hide his face, seized two men at the Charlottesville, VA, courthouse. The sequel, as reported by the local paper, the Daily Progress, was that an *unnamed* (!) ICE spokesperson threatened to prosecute two persons at the scene who challenged the action and asked the agents to identify themselves or show a warrant. The headline read: “ICE promises bystanders who challenged Charlottesville raid will be prosecuted.”
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Simon Willison @simonwillison.net · 26/04/2025
I'm tilting at windmills again, trying to convince people that phones don't spy on you through your microphone to target ads at you simonwillison.net/2025/Apr/26/...
simonwillison.net
Note on 26th April 2025
Last September I posted [a series of long ranty comments on Lobste.rs](https://lobste.rs/s/mf7guc/leak_facebook_partner_brags_about) about the latest instance of the [immortal conspiracy theory](https...
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Roger Filmyer @synolect.com · 23/04/2025
see bio
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Sky Marchini @sky.skymarchini.net · 15/04/2025
Just to build on this, one of the reasons the death camps were built in the occupied territories was because the Nazi command knew they were illegal under German law and the nominally-still-extant Weimar constitution
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Yakov Feygin @buddyyakov.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
Starting to get a bit calmer and it’s probably the mother of all rush to cash from blowing up hedgies. Usually Fed would just fix this but usually we don’t have the mother of all supply shocks at the same time.
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ceej @ceej.online · 09/04/2025
see, this is exactly what I’m talking about
screenshot of my post from 5 days ago that says “I do not like when the nerds who post graphs on here are all going "oof" and "jesus christ" at the same time”
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lauren @lauren.rotatingsandwiches.com · 09/04/2025
i think i speak for most americans when i say i hate anyone who is so stupid that he makes me care about treasury bonds
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alex williams @atwilliams.bsky.social · 04/04/2025
i think the basic thesis of the trump admin as a reaction to the biden admin is that doing things "right" is too hard and time consuming, therefore doing things "wrong" must work and also be faster
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Karthik Sankaran @rajakorman.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
The issue is that the logical alternative based on the primary beneficiaries of the Suez trade, joint Sino-European naval missions that patrol the Red Sea, would probably freak people out even more.
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jab lung @mobute.bsky.social · 25/03/2025
quick headline about the third-rate florida school in question and its relationship to the ivy league
huffpost.com
New College Of Florida Produces More Fulbright Scholars Per Capita Than Harvard, Yale
New College Of Florida Produces More Fulbright Scholars Per Capita Than Harvard, Yale
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Roger Filmyer @synolect.com · 25/03/2025
Giant thread from a pair of travellers trying to get from Berlin to as far south as they can in Africa. Very cool to check on from time to time.
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Roger Filmyer @synolect.com · 21/03/2025
Someone at work tried to figure out the internals of an LLC by asking it about itself and it just hallucinated information......
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Ed @notdred.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
“I feel bad for our country. But this is tremendous content.”
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rev. howard arson @theophite.bsky.social · 12/02/2025
i think everyone is surprised that a diffusion model can actually produce passable work because every extant diffusion model is tuned specifically to produce garbage because none of the people working on them actually respect art
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Roger Filmyer @synolect.com · 10/02/2025
It's the moustache lore
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Jeffrey Wooldridge @jmwooldridge.bsky.social · 04/02/2025
In addition to “biased,” I expected to see that woke term “difference-in-differences.”
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Five Minute Macro @fiveminutemacro.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
It's true that the US can inflict more pain on the rest of the world than the ROW can inflict on the US, but on the other hand, a macroeconomic shock in ROW is known as 'just another Monday', whereas the US will overthrow their system of constitutional government because egg prices went up.
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warrior cop @wyattprivilege.bsky.social · 27/01/2025
Fuck man I guess this is on us, we accidentally forgot to hit the make this cost 99% less button
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Roger Filmyer @synolect.com · 27/01/2025
Lol, I thought my downstairs neighbors had badly loaded their washer #earthquake #somerville
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Simon Willison @simonwillison.net · 02/01/2025
I'm fully aware that this is a total waste of my time, but I wrote a blog post about this anyway: simonwillison.net/2025/Jan/2/t...
simonwillison.net
I still don’t think companies serve you ads based on spying through your microphone
One of my weirder hobbies is trying to convince people that the idea that companies are listening to you through your phone’s microphone and serving you targeted ads is a …
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JW Mason @jwmason.bsky.social · 02/01/2025
This is a good example of what Andrew Gelman calls a “piranha problem”: If the effect of mealtimes is this big, then nothing else can have a substantial effect - there’s only so much variation to explain. So this is disproven by basically any other study. daniellakens.blogspot.com/2017/07/impo...
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Roger Filmyer @synolect.com · 02/01/2025
600 miles / 8 hours = 75 mph average speed You can do this in America too, it's called the Acela. Great job Germany.
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amy o'kruk @amyokruk.bsky.social · 29/12/2024
with Christmas over, decor is starting to come down, and hopefully *carefully* 🎄🎄🎄 👉 accidents related to Christmas trees, lights and ornaments send thousands of Americans to emergency departments each year
Chart headline: Classic Christmas decor is linked to the most hospital trips
Chart subtitle: An average of 16,035 patients are admitted to emergency departments for decor-related injuries each year, with nonelectric Christmas decor typically representing about half of all injuries.
Chart title: Estimated annual US Christmas-decor-related hospital visits, Christmas 2004 to 2022
Chart description: A streamgraph styled as a Christmas tree show the number of Christmas-decor-related hospital trips since 2004, e.g. there were 20,015 estimated trips in 2022 and the majority of trips were caused by nonelectric Christmas decor. 
Chart source: Consumer Product Safety Commission (National Electronic Injury Surveillance System)
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Bob Lord @boblord.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
VPN vendors have huge budgets to advertise on your favorite podcasts. We don't have marketing for the IETF, browser and OS security teams, CAs (Let's Encrypt), CDNs, researchers, open source authors, website builders, digital rights activists... We made the web secure and didn't tell anyone.
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Roger Filmyer @synolect.com · 19/12/2024
Very funny that the US is tied up trying to sell a boat as it becomes an increasingly embarrassing white elephant for them
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Kylie Cheung @kylietcheung.bsky.social · 01/12/2024
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 02/12/2024
This is madness. If other countries want to sell us solar on the cheap so we can expedite adoption of clean energy, let them. Either climate change is a crisis, or it isn't. www.reuters.com/business/ene...
reuters.com
US sets tariffs for solar panels from Southeast Asian nations
U.S. trade officials announced on Friday a new round of tariffs on solar panel imports from four Southeast Asian nations after American manufacturers complained that companies there are flooding the market with unfairly cheap goods.
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Dr. Samantha Hancox-Li @sjshancoxli.liberalcurrents.com · 18/11/2024
want to note again that many of the economic-determinism arguments start by presupposing the conclusion--"it MUST have an economic explanation!"--and then go p-hacking until they finally find some obscure variable that got worse the last four years
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Stephen Jacob Smith @stephenjacobsmith.com · 16/11/2024
Not only have high tariffs on Chinese-made cars deprived American consumers of affordable new EVs, but they’ve deprived US automakers of the competitive pressures necessary to force them into producing vehicles that they can actually sell abroad www.wsj.com/business/aut...
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David_j_roth @davidjroth.bsky.social · 15/11/2024
I'm totally done with X/Twitter. I will still be doing my banking there, though.
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Paul Krugman @pkrugman.bsky.social · 12/11/2024
It looks as if this place is becoming what Twitter used to be; for now, at least, we can post stuff to a sigificant audience without being overrun by trolls and bots. For starters, here's my complete theory of the election, and probably my last word on the subject
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Josh Gondelman @joshgondelman.bsky.social · 29/10/2024
It’s important to remind the Yankees fans in your life that there is precedent for a team coming back from down 0-3 in a playoff series. They need and love to hear it.
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Roger Filmyer @synolect.com · 26/10/2024
Preregistering my 2024 election takes: • Harris wins • Dems win House, lose Senate • Nat'l polls are accurate and Harris wins by 3-4% of PV • Otherwise polls are too biased towards Trump as a 2016 overcorrection • Florida and NY both go redder, which erodes Trump's electoral college advantage.
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