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Steve Berry

@steveberry.bsky.social
1.9K followers 886 following 15 posts

Empirical study of firms and markets, including models used for policy analysis. Yale Econ, Cowles, and faculty director of the Tobin Center.

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Reposted by Steve Berry
Sam @samd.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
we could solve the western water crisis overnight by simply charging alfalfa farmers market rates for water
Across the basin, alfalfa hay uses more than 5 million acre-feet of Colorado River water — that's 26% of all the water consumed in the basin. One acre-foot roughly equals the annual water use of two or three households.
In the Upper Basin, irrigated agriculture consumes 2.8 million acre-feet, or nearly half the water used by Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming, the environment, reservoirs and water exports out of the basin. Cattle-feed crops, like alfalfa, consume 90% of all water used by Upper Basin agriculture.
That means alfalfa uses more water than cities, commercial users and industries across the entire basin:
Collectively, these users consume about 3.5 million acre-feet, or 18%, of the river's water. The Colorado River
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Stephen Judkins @stephenjudkins.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
This post by @lastpositivist.bsky.social remains the single best take on effective altruism
Adding a single principle to utilitarianism ("ok, but no galaxy brain stuff, alright?") and thereby perfecting moral philosophy.
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David Roberts @volts.wtf · 17/09/2026
Read this thread & the linked piece from @mikegrunwald.bsky.social. The climate bean-counting industry is boring, I understand why most people ignore it, but this is a truly epochal disaster in the making.
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Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 12/09/2026
The US President's new proposal to tax international students has been approved by the White House for release this week. It's an unprecedented $100,000 tax on int'l grads who stay to work after graduation on Optional Practical Training (most grads do), a crucial bridge to remaining by any channel.
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Michael Grunwald @mikegrunwald.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
🚨🚨🚨 Hey look, it’s WE ARE EATING THE EARTH, this time with a back made of paper! It’s lighter, it’s cheaper, and it’s got a new afterword. I hope you’ll check it out!
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Richard Waite @waiterich.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
We have a fixed amount of land but growing demands for food & housing—while also needing to protect & restore nature, which also would help climate. Environmentalists need to get more comfortable with land-efficient agriculture, eating more plants/fewer animal products, and denser cities/suburbs.
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Michael Grunwald @mikegrunwald.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
We Are Eating the Earth. (Data version)
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ghost malone ergo propter bones @proptermalone.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
1) this is good and you should read it (and my prior is that Lowrey's book is also good and you should read it, although i haven't yet) 2) administrative burden is the single place I am most optimistic about positive impact from LLMs
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Jonathan A. Parker @profjaparker.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
For me, it’s been Pepe’s above all others since high school, and it’s pizza nirvana not oasis www.cnn.com/travel/new-h...
cnn.com
A New England oasis with a century-old pizza scene | CNN
The college town of New Haven isn’t the capital of Connecticut, but it is the state’s cultural capital. And the pizza capital, too.
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Dan Goldhaber @cedr.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
"How Test-Optional Policies in College Admissions Disproportionately Harm High-Achieving Applicants from Disadvantaged Backgrounds" is a great example of how sometimes research upends intuition. drive.google.com/file/d/10mW5...
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William Shakespeare @shakespeare.lol · 25/08/2026
[Exit Queen.]
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences @pnas.org · 31/07/2026
Honoring Christopher A. Sims, a pioneering macroeconomist and econometrician whose work reshaped the paradigm for empirical macroeconomics. He is one of the few academics to directly impact the work of central banks throughout the world. Read the PNAS Retrospective: ow.ly/HPPu50Zv2vb
Honoring the life of Christopher A. Sims.
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NBER @nber.org · 04/07/2026
Revisiting the determination of prices and quantities when markets don’t clear. Without the invisible hand, uncertainty shocks are stagflationary and demand shocks absorb slack, from Joel P. Flynn, George Nikolakoudis, and Karthik Sastry www.nber.org/papers/w35390
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Yale Department of Economics @yaleeconomics.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
"We analyze consumer surplus when a monopolist can adjust both prices and product qualities across segments, engaging in second- and third-degree price discrimination simultaneously." NEW Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper, by Bergemann, Heumann, & Wang: cowles.yale.edu/research/cfd...
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Michael Grunwald @mikegrunwald.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Cool news: WE ARE EATING THE EARTH has been short-listed for the Penn Libraries Book Prize in Sustainability. Congrats to the other finalists, they sound great. www.library.upenn.edu/news/sustain...
library.upenn.edu
Penn Libraries Book Prize in Sustainability
This annual award acknowledges outstanding contributions to the global discourse on environmental sustainability, with a specific focus on books that have a substantial impact on the public's understa...
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Lynsi Burton (she/her) @lynsi-climate.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
"A growing body of evidence now indicates that corn ethanol may generate emissions comparable to, or even worse than, gasoline once full lifecycle impacts are considered. The EPA ... concluded in 2023 that recent emissions estimates for corn ethanol exceed those of gasoline."
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David Slichter @davidslichter.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
(1/n) Holding the coursework constant but changing whether there's a diploma has no effect on wages: www.jstor.org/stable/10.10...
jstor.org
The Signaling Value of a High School Diploma on JSTOR
Damon Clark, Paco Martorell, The Signaling Value of a High School Diploma, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 122, No. 2 (April 2014), pp. 282-318
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Michael Grunwald @mikegrunwald.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
Burning trees for energy is as bad as burning crops for energy. New paper by the protagonist of a recent book!
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Michael Grunwald @mikegrunwald.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
I wrote about how Trump is making America's terrible biofuel policies even worse - and how most Democrats and environmentalists are too afraid to fight back. @canarymedia.com www.canarymedia.com/articles/foo...
canarymedia.com
Federal policy on biofuels goes from bad to worse under Trump
The administration’s lavish biofuel subsidies for farmers are bad for consumers and the planet, but the problem goes way beyond his administration.
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Yale Department of Economics @yaleeconomics.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
Join us in congratulating Donald Andrews for being recognized as an AEA 2026 Distinguished Fellow! His work has had a lasting influence on many topics in modern econometrics, and has repeatedly changed how econometric problems are understood. economics.yale.edu/news/260410/...
economics.yale.edu
American Economic Association (AEA) Recognizes Donald Andrews as a 2026 Distinguished Fellow
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Armand Domalewski @armanddomalewski.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
the people who collect data for government statistics like the unemployment rate, the census, etc, have boring, tedious, thankless jobs that they overwhelmingly do with integrity and honesty.
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David Roberts @volts.wtf · 09/04/2026
Just recorded a great pod, and I gotta say ... solar and batteries are going to win. They are the main dish. Everything else is a side dish. In 10 years, you won't be able to find anyone who disagrees with this.
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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 08/04/2026
Chris is a very smart, conservative economist. I enjoy talking with and learning from him. You can hear him talking about the administration on this @hellerhurwicz.bsky.social podcast open.spotify.com/episode/6eBS...
open.spotify.com
S3E1: The End of the Free Trade Era: Trump’s Sledgehammer approach to constructing a new economic order
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 05/04/2026
Wrote another post based on a video with Markus Brunnermeier Use LLMs to lessen the large fixed costs of managing and organizing large databases. I use the setting of HMDA mortgage data to show how a massive 250m row db can turn into a trivial data exercise thanks to DuckDB + Claude Code.
open.substack.com
Large Datasets and Structured Databases: Claude Code for Economists
Video 4 in a series on Claude Code
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Pam Davis-Kean, PhD @umpamdk.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
The NSF 2027 budget has noted that they will close out the Social, Behavioral, and Economic Science Program (SBE). This is not a good thing. nsf-gov-resources.nsf.gov/files/FY-202...
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Reuters @reuters.com · 27/03/2026
US refining group says record biofuel quotas may worsen Iran war price spike reut.rs/4c9wbrX
reut.rs
US refining group says record biofuel quotas may worsen Iran war price spike
The Trump administration ordered U.S. refiners ​on Friday to blend a record amount of biofuels into their gasoline and diesel this year and next, a move intended ‌to help farmers but that the refining industry said would only backfire by raising pump prices already spiking due to the war in Iran.
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Richard Waite @waiterich.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
Correct. On the vast majority of the world's land, solar would produce 100x or more the useable energy per hectare vs. bioenergy. Meaning 1 hectare for energy, 99 hectares left over for food. (Also, solar farms don't necessarily need to be put on farmland, but crops do.)
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 21/03/2026
🧵A thread on "AI one-shot papers". This has not been a focus on Bluesky, but on Twitter/X and LinkedIn, there has been a large discussion of the ability to "one-shot" policy evaluation, which David Yanagizawa-Drott has been pursuing in an interesting way: ape.socialcatalystlab.org
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Martin Gaynor @martingaynor.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
These are the words I gave over at a recent Iftar gathering for Ramadan. I'm very grateful to our Muslim neighbors for inviting me and giving me the opportunity to connect and to be together with them at this significant time.
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Tim Bresnahan @timobres.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
Chris Sims, brilliant macroeconomic empiricist, has died. His Nobel acceptance speech: www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2018....
nobelprize.org
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Martin Gaynor @martingaynor.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
New paper out with Amanda Starc on competition in health insurance markets, in particular on the complicated ways in which asymmetric information and competition interact (spoiler: things aren’t going so well). www.nber.org/papers/w34928
nber.org
Competition in Health Insurance Markets
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
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Health Care Affordability Lab at Yale @yalehealthlab.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
👋We’re the Health Care Affordability Lab at @yale.edu — a new initiative that pairs rigorous academic scholarship with strategic policy engagement to curb rising health care spending at every level of government. Read more: www.healthcareaffordabilitylab.org/commentary-p...
The Health Care Affordability Lab at Yale produces new evidence to guide policymakers and lower health care costs for individuals and the health care system.
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Richard Waite @waiterich.bsky.social · 07/03/2026
Long 🧵 tl;dr: - Global ag commodity markets are integrated - Biofuel policies raise ag commodity prices, causing ag to expand - This leads to land-use change emissions - We need to get off fossil fuels ASAP! But beware “solutions” that just swap fossil emissions for even higher land emissions
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Richard Waite @waiterich.bsky.social · 07/03/2026
The global oil market is integrated. Changes to supply or demand in one place cause price effects that ripple around the 🌎. But did you know this is true for non-branded bulk food products like grains & vegetable oils? Below are export prices of maize (corn) from the US, the EU, & the Black Sea.
Figure F3: Correlation of world prices of maize from the US, the EU, and the Black Sea. Graph shows prices tracking closely from 2016-2023.

Source: Authors’ drawing based on data from the International Grains Council and FranceAgriMer. 

https://tobin.yale.edu/sites/default/files/2025-01/Berry%20Searchinger%20Yang%20GTAP%20Paper%20%282024.12.%29.pdf
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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 01/03/2026
Care about Americans, employment, earnings, consumer prices, your local or our national economy? @usbls.bsky.social empowers us to better recognize these & make decisions. Consider signing onto Friends of BLS's new letter to Congress re its budget. And spread the word.

We are currently seeking organizational and individual support for our FY27 Funding Recommendation Letter and hope you will join us in asking for more robust funding for BLS. We are asking Congress to approve $754 million for BLS in FY27 which is a 5% increase over FY26. These funds will allow BLS to train new staff, implement delayed modernization efforts, and sustain response rates in multiple programs.
 

We are accepting sign-ons from both organizations and individuals no later than COB Wednesday March 4. Please select the appropriate link below to read the full letter and sign-on.
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Manuel Arellano @manoloarellano.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
Congratulations to Charles Manski on winning the BBVA Frontiers Award for his foundational contributions to partial identification, semiparametric methods, subjective expectations, social interactions and policy decision-making under uncertainty www.premiosfronterasdelconocimiento.es/noticias/xvi...
premiosfronterasdelconocimiento.es
XVIII Premio Fronteras del Conocimiento en Economía a Charles Manski
por incorporar la incertidumbre en la investigación económica y su aplicación al análisis de las políticas públicas
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Fiona Scott Morton @proffionasm.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
Re: Slater’s departure from ATR. Look at this Ticketmaster stock chart
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
Person who was fired here - you should still trust BLS data. The agency is being run by the same dedicated career staff who were running it while I was awaiting confirmation from the Senate. And the staff have made it clear that they are blowing a loud whistle if there is interference.
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Florian Ederer @florianederer.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
My co-author Charles Hodgson (Yale) is hiring a full-time pre-doc to work on projects focusing on the role of information externalities. The hired researcher will meet regularly with faculty and receive dedicated research training & career development skills. Application👇
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Al Roth @alroth.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
“Higher caffeinated coffee intake was associated with more favorable cognitive outcomes. " #econsky #academicsky #medicine marketdesigner.blogspot.com/2026/02/befo...
marketdesigner.blogspot.com
Before I forget, coffee lowers risk of dementia
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Stephen Jacob Smith @stephenjacobsmith.com · 01/02/2026
Good explanation of why the MTA’s already very high 2nd Ave. costs keep rising with each new phase, despite what Alon generously describes as quarter-measures to cut them
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Timothy McBride @mcbridetd.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
Hospital Mergers Gain Momentum As Trump’s ‘Beautiful Bill’ Cuts Loom www.forbes.com/sites/brucej...
forbes.com
Hospital Mergers Gain Momentum As Trump’s ‘Beautiful Bill’ Cuts Loom
Hospital merger and acquisition activity ended 2025 with momentum expected to continue as drastic cuts to Medicaid spending under Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act loom.
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Martin Gaynor @martingaynor.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
1/2 Did market power drive post-Covid inflation? There have been strong public claims that it has. Neat new paper by Christopher Conlon examines what coherent analysis has to say about distinguishing between market power (softer competition) vs increased demand www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
sciencedirect.com
Did Profits Cause Inflation?
A popular narrative has attributed the post-COVID rise in inflation to a rise in corporate profits. The literature in industrial organization offers t…
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Michael Grunwald @mikegrunwald.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
If you’ve called me a shill for factory farms (and even if you haven’t) you might be interested in my new @nytimes.com column about how factory farms get away with disgusting pollution. They shouldn’t be banned. They should be regulated like factories! www.nytimes.com/2026/01/20/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | This Is Why Our Rivers Are Turning Into Sewers
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Jacob T. Levy @jacobtlevy.bsky.social · 12/12/2025
George Will: www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 10/12/2025
I was curious about the state of labor *supply* on the job market. I pulled the stock of New First Year PhDs, ABDs and PhDs granted at Graduate Depts from the CSWEP reports. The left plot is the Flow of economics PhDs, and the right is the stock of ABDs.
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
Devastating news. Kate was a great economist and a generous person.
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Matt Darling @besttrousers.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
Whenever you try to unbundle education, you need to explain why your approach is going to work when *books* did not. What innovation are you bringing to the table that exceeds the development of the printing press?
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 10/12/2025
Goal for the next six months: dive into the debate on identification of demand elasticities in finance. Feels like asset pricing is rehashing debates from IO twenty years ago? But that’s good because it’s an important debate! @steveberry.bsky.social
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