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Solomon Kurz

@solomonkurz.bsky.social
7.7K followers 713 following 2K posts

Clinical psychology researcher | applied statistics geek | so called #RStats influencer

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Solomon Kurz @solomonkurz.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Beta regression is underused in psychology. Back in the day, it was hard or impossible to do with software. Things have changed and you can now do it for free and with about as much ease as any other GLM. Whether you need description, prediction, or causal inference--beta regression can do it all.
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JsonGeller @jgeller1phd.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
New tutorial finally in press with @rmkubinec.bsky.social @chelseaparlett.bsky.social and @matti.vuorre.com. It has everything you could possible want: Quippy headings, a whole lot of beta, bayesian analyses and frequentist analyses side by side in harmony. link.springer.com/article/10.3...
rdcu.be
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Matti Vuorre @matti.vuorre.com · 01/10/2026
Good talk. There's a lot of (over)thinking of this at the moment. Zenodo just works. (Until it doesn't when we and our bots ruin that as well.) Collaborate on GitHub and refer to zenodo.
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Solomon Kurz @solomonkurz.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
It's been a fun run, but online psychology experiments are dead. Somewhere out there a behavior analyst will see this and smirk.
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Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Two people at a cocktail party. One says: "I'm a fiction writer in the causal inference genre."
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Solomon Kurz @solomonkurz.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
TIL about zombie trials. What a time to be alive
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Dan Simpson @danpsimpson.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Reproducibility packages are a communication tool more than anything else. I wrote a bit about this, in a seasonally appropriate post, once upon a time statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2019/11/13/w...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
What if it’s never decorative gourd season? | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
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Thùy Vy T Nguyễn @thuyvytnguyen.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Hey #openscience people, have you come across any registered reports on existing datasets to test new hypotheses? By definition (www.cos.io/initiatives/...), it applies to where data collection has not begun, so I am asking whether it can be used for secondary data analysis.
cos.io
Registered Reports
Peer review before results are known to align scientific values and practices.
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Ian Hussey @ianhussey.mmmdata.io · 25/09/2026
"Systematic reviews are only as credible as the studies they include" INSPECT-SR was published yesterday, giving concrete guidance on how to exclude untrustworthy studies. Cochrane's statement: www.cochrane.org/about-us/new... Article: www.cochrane.org/about-us/new... Guidance: inspect-sr.com
cochrane.org
New tool helps researchers spot problematic trials before they distort evidence | Cochrane
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tj mahr 🤘 @tjmahr.com · 22/09/2026
#rstats note on a print(dataframe) -> data.frame() workaround i did www.tjmahr.com/notes/2026-0...
tjmahr.com
Quick hack to parse brms priors print-out
At the time of writing, the print() function for a brms prior specification does some row-filling to make things more verbose and explicit. But these details are not available as a dataframe for the ...
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Beth Clarke @bethclarke.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Come work on a PhD in Metascience with me! There’s just a little over one week left to apply!
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Dan Quintana @dsquintana.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
New preprint! 🎉 I analysed 1660 papers from 4 psychology journals and found materials sharing went from 9% of papers in 2015 to 82% in 2025, and these materials *do* get downloaded — a median of 135 times each. BUT shared code is often hard to run. doi.org/10.31234/osf... Let's walk through it 🧵
Two-panel figure. Panel a is a flow diagram tracking 1,611 empirical psychology articles from publication year (545 in 2015, 552 in 2020, 514 in 2025) to repository-link type: 785 link an OSF project, 85 link another platform, and 741 link no repository. Of those with an OSF link, download counts were retrieved for 670 and not retrieved for 115. Panel b is a line chart of the share of empirical papers linking OSF across 2015, 2020 and 2025. The overall rate, shown as a dashed black line, rises from 9% to 57% to 82%. All four journals rise steeply and end close together: Psychological Science 92%, JESP 89%, JML 83%, Cognition 76%, with Psychological Science highest throughout.Three-panel figure. Panel a: ridgeline plot of downloads per file by material type on a log scale, with the percentage never downloaded labelled for each — archive 16% of 545 files, documents 20% of 2,970, code 12% of 3,471, other 17% of 1,646, data 21% of 10,051, media 35% of 2,120, images 35% of 4,102. Most files cluster between 1 and 10 downloads, with long right tails past 100. Panel b: ridgeline plot of downloads per paper by journal, log scale, with dashed median lines; Psychological Science is highest, then JESP, JML and Cognition. Panel c: stacked bars showing, for documents, data and code separately, the share of papers by download band (0, 1–10, 11–100, more than 100) in 2015, 2020 and 2025. The share exceeding 100 downloads falls sharply over time in all three types, from roughly two-thirds in 2015 to a quarter or less in 2025, as the 1–10 band grows.Four-panel figure. Panel a: statistical languages detected among 333 papers with retrievable code — R 88%, SPSS 12%, Stata 4%, SAS 1%. Panel b: code red flags among those 333 papers — 34% hard-code an absolute path, 40% reference a missing file — above documentation among 672 OSF-linked papers — 21% have a README, 30% are documented by README, description or wiki. Panel c: among 562 Elsevier papers with no repository link, 44% (245) host at least one journal supplementary file but only 14% (77) host data, code or an archive. Panel d: composition of those 448 hosted files — documents 52%, data 21%, media 9%, other 7%, archive 6%, code 3%, images 1%. The code panels are green, the journal-supplement panels blue.Coefficient plot (download predictors)

Dot-and-whisker plot of three standardised predictors of OSF download volume, each with a 95% confidence interval. Repository size (number of files) has the largest effect at about 0.76, citations about 0.38, and altmetric attention about 0.12. All three intervals sit entirely above zero, so each predicts more downloads, with repository size roughly twice the effect of citations and six times that of attention. X-axis: standardised effect, −0.2 to 1.0.
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Jan Vanhove @janhove.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
New blog post: "Cluster analysis: A skeptic’s guide". In which I ask a few questions that social scientists wishing to identify hidden classes in their data ought to address. janhove.github.io/posts/2026-0...
A two-dimensional scatterplot showing a three-cluster solution.

Caption: "Figure 2: A visualisation of a Latent Profile Analysis fit. Such visualisations may help readers appreciate that the clusters aren’t nicely separated and that the researchers’ notion of clusters may not correspond to their own."Table of contents:

Refresher: What is cluster analysis?
What are the clusters for?
What clusters, exactly?
Does the pipeline work?
What does the solution look like?
When running follow-up analyses, how is the uncertainty in the cluster assignments taken into account?
Was it worth it?
Conclusion
References
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 18/09/2026
This is an *excellent* post on cluster analysis. If you ever thought about applying cluster, latent class or latent profile analysis to psychological scales, you absolutely should read this!>
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Peter Ellis @freerangestats.info · 16/09/2026
Inspired by a @f2harrell.bsky.social comment, I did some #rstats simulations about how big a sample needs to be for the central limit theorem to kick in and the sample mean be normally distributed for inference purposes. Yes, with skewed data the answer is "lots". freerangestats.info/blog/2026/09...
Scatter plot with 8 facets, each showing a different distribution, and the actual coverage of a 95% confidence interval for the mean at different sample sizes. Most values are well below 95%.
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Ian Hussey @ianhussey.mmmdata.io · 13/09/2026
Article now retracted. Retraction notice focuses on data sharing, but doesn't mention - the ethics review body is the author's own company - the tech used to to collect the data by intercepting users' LLM prompts does not exist ht @grinschglsandra.bsky.social psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/202...
psycnet.apa.org
APA PsycNet
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Mattan S. Ben-Shachar @mattansb.msbstats.info · 14/09/2026
Upgrading my "hedghog-cake as an estimand" slide with some more hedgehog cakes from hell. #statsmeme
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Solomon Kurz @solomonkurz.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
I've never seen one, but maybe you have:
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Martin Modrák @modrakm.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
I will be looking for a PhD student in Bayesian statistics (in collaboration with Paul Bürkner), located in Prague. Forward to students if you have somebody who could be interested. www.martinmodrak.cz/grammo-call/
martinmodrak.cz
Grammo - Let's Research Bayes!
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Melissa Kline Struhl @mekline.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Re-upping for Monday morning: I have the infrastructure to generate a completely novel child ASR dataset for ages ~2-12, let's say 50 kids/year and 10 minutes/kid. People generally don't believe this claim, so I'm just going to make it. Speech/reading/Ed tech folks: what's on your wish list?
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Matthew B. Jané @matthewbjane.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
I’ve been quiet on social media lately, but today I’m launching Audit Clinical Evidence (ACE), an initiative I’ve been developing over the past year. Take a look: AuditClinicalEvidence.org
auditclinicalevidence.org
ACE
Independent audits of published clinical research for statistical errors, data inconsistencies, and research integrity violations.
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Martin Plöderl @ploederl.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
"But in my practice I see that these meds are working!" This is a good piece about the problems underlying such (common) beliefs in our field. Applies not just to psychiatrists of course (as the author points out at the end).
polypharmacy.substack.com
Psychiatrists as superstitious pigeons
Coming to terms with small effects and large variation in treating common disorders
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Ruben C. Arslan @ruben.the100.ci · 11/09/2026
An interesting thing is happening to me at the moment. I have a standing bug bounty policy for my first authored scientific work. That means, I've committed to pay people who report bugs in my code, up to 750€ for severe errors. Since GPT-6 Astra came out, I'm now getting several bug reports daily.
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Vincent Arel-Bundock @vincentab.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Big news! 🎉 𝚖𝚊𝚛𝚐𝚒𝚗𝚊𝚕𝚎𝚏𝚏𝚎𝚌𝚝𝚜 1.0.0 for #Rstats is out. It’s a big number and it feels like a big step. I wrote a blog on the challenges of interpreting statistical models, SPEED, cool new features, the future, and a 5 year package development and writing odyssey. arelbundock.com/posts/margin...
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Elle Cordova @ellecordova.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Rough Draft vs Final Draft
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Randy Ellis @randalljellis.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Here's my conversation with @bethclarke.bsky.social, incoming Junior Professor of Psychological Metascience at the Leibniz-Institut für Psychologie. www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Hak... We discussed direct replications, how study limitations are ignored, and p-curving social and personality psychology.
youtube.com
Direct replications, P-curves, and Acknowledging Limitations | Beth Clarke
YouTube video by Metascience Matters
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Jennifer Tackett @jnfrltackett.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Anyone moving (or keeping) their preregistrations on Zenodo? I'm thinking it makes more sense to move them over so projects will ultimately be on the same platform, but it looks like you can't actually blind them for peer review (even if posted as restricted, identity is still attached)?
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simine vazire @simine.com · 02/09/2026
Psych Science has retracted Ariely & Wertenbroch (2002). The second author requested the retraction. Both authors agreed to it. journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.... So grateful to @datacolada.bsky.social for these blog posts and the work behind them: datacolada.org/138 and datacolada.org/139 1/2
journals.sagepub.com
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
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Solomon Kurz @solomonkurz.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Completely astonishing
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 01/09/2026
I most definitely didn’t expect this to get covered by 2P4B, yet here we are. Very nice episode, can recommend!
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
In this special episode of Learning Bayesian Statistics, @alex-andorra.bsky.social is joined by Andrew Gelman, Aki Vehtari, and Richard McElreath to discuss Bayesian Workflow. From simulation and hierarchical pooling to causal inference, there’s a lot to unpack 🎧 lnkd.in/geX2QkxV #Bayesian
learnbayesstats.com
Bayesian Workflow - Gelman, Vehtari & McElreath
Andrew Gelman, Aki Vehtari, and Richard McElreath discuss their new book on Bayesian workflow, reverse Bayes and hierarchical pooling.
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Solomon Kurz @solomonkurz.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Amazing screenshot. I have never been a deadlines researcher, but man oh man, I've also never seen real-life data with that kind of a pattern
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Solomon Kurz @solomonkurz.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
With {ggcube}, I can finally make versions of Kruschke's 3D plots. It only took 8 years... Here's a couple previews:
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Aki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
bayesplot R package 1.16.0 now in CRAN! This release has quite a lot of new functionality and other improvements. Below are some highlights. For more detailed release notes that cover additional improvements and bug fixes see Changelog mc-stan.org/bayesplot/ne...
mc-stan.org
Changelog
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Saloni @scientificdiscovery.dev · 17/08/2026
Has anyone written a good piece about the incoming AI science slop tsunami and what to do about it?
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Daniel Lakens @lakens.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
New Blog post: Which Data Repository Should you Use? In light of OSF closing down, I compare Zenodo, Dataverse, ResearchBox, PsychArchive, and local repositories on six important dimensions. If you want to know which to pick: It depends! daniellakens.blogspot.com/2026/08/whic...
daniellakens.blogspot.com
Which Data Repository Should You Use?
The Center for Open Science has announced that from November 16, 2026, no new projects can be created on the Open Science Framework. After F...
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Ian Hussey @ianhussey.mmmdata.io · 14/08/2026
I’ve been told for years that it’s legally and ethically impossible to share medical RCT data. In 2024, the BMJ made sharing anonymised data mandatory, and now lots* of folk do it. Interesting how the barriers evaporated like that, isn’t it? *not everyone, compliance problems exist.
medrxiv.org
Availability of clinical trial individual patient data in the BMJ before and after adoption of a stringent data-sharing policy, compared with recent rates at other major medical journals
Background In 2024, the BMJ updated its data-sharing policy for clinical trials, requiring open deposit of deidentified individual participant data (IPD) before publication. We considered whether data...
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Aki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
All four books I've co-authored are freely available online for non-commercial use: - Bayesian Workflow at avehtari.github.io/Bayesian-Wor... Links to other three books are in the quoted post 👇 (too many books to fit in one post!)
avehtari.github.io
Bayesian Workflow book: Website – Bayesian Workflow book
Website for the Bayesian Workflow book by Gelman, Vehtari, McElreath, et al. — case studies, code, and exercises in R and Stan.
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Solomon Kurz @solomonkurz.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Just got feedback from the peer review. It looks like the mistakes I found were indeed mistakes, and they are even more pervasive than I thought. More to come, soon. In the meantime, do not rely on this paper.
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Lisa DeBruine @debruine.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
The following R script downloads your public projects from the OSF. Set the variable "me" to your OSF user ID, which you can find at osf.io/profile after logging in.
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Lisa DeBruine @debruine.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
You can use this R function to download all of the files associated with an OSF project. Improvements are coming in the next version to include registrations. Should we add a function to download all your public and private projects? osf_file_download(“abcde”) www.scienceverse.org/metacheck/
scienceverse.org
Check Research Outputs for Best Practices
A modular, extendable system for checking research outputs for best practices using text search, R code, and/or (optional) LLM queries.
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Russ Poldrack @russpoldrack.org · 11/08/2026
Many of you will have seen the recent post about changes at OSF. If you'd like to learn more about how to use other services (particularly Zenodo) to share data and code, see my book chapter on resource sharing. bettercode-book.org/book-sharing...
bettercode-book.org
12  Sharing Research Objects – Better Code, Better Science
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Jin X. Goh | 吴晋勋 @jinxungoh.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Meme of a young person assisting an old lady. The old person said “I remember when you could store data on osf.” The young person said “sure professor. Let’s get you to bed”
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Solomon Kurz @solomonkurz.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Looking for #RStats peer review: I may have found a mistake in Reluga et al's (2024; doi.org/10.1214/24-E...) simulation code, which changes the results. The reviewer would need some knowledge simulation studies, and/or causal inference, and/or Poisson regression. Ideally they'd be a statistician.
doi.org
A unified analysis of regression adjustment in randomized experiments
Regression adjustment is broadly applied in randomized trials under the premise that it usually improves the precision of a treatment effect estimator. However, previous work has shown that this is not always true. To further understand this phenomenon, we develop a unified comparison of the asymptotic variance of a class of linear regression-adjusted estimators. Our analysis is based on the classical theory for linear regression with heteroscedastic errors and thus does not assume that the postulated linear model is correct. For a randomized Bernoulli trial, we provide sufficient conditions under which some regression-adjusted estimators are guaranteed to be more asymptotically efficient than others. We comment on the extension of our theory to other settings such as general treatment mechanisms and generalized linear models, and find that the variance dominance phenomenon no longer occurs
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Brian Nosek @briannosek.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Over the next several months, we will phase out some popular OSF features. These changes do not affect current public content, which remains safe and accessible. We have prepared support material to help users adapt. I am very sorry for the disruption to your work. Please read this post for details.
cos.io
OSF Changes | Center for Open Science
We are preparing substantial changes to OSF that will reduce its functionality, focus OSF on its unique strengths, and move toward an integrated model with complementary services. As part of that shif...
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Demetri @phdemetri.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Cross Validated not doing much better
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Stephen Wild @stephenjwild.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
Bomb discourse from a historian. A+ Much better than the usual Bluesky drivel on this topic.
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Saloni @scientificdiscovery.dev · 07/08/2026
Since measles vaccines are on the news again (and sadly never for good reasons anymore), here are three articles I've written about them. 1. How well does the measles vaccine work? What are the risks? I summarise the evidence here.
ourworldindata.org
How effective and safe are measles vaccines?
Data from large meta-analyses show that measles vaccination is highly effective and safe, giving a 95% reduction in the risk of measles.
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Solomon Kurz @solomonkurz.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Agreed. This is a good read for those interested in experiments.
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Solomon Kurz @solomonkurz.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
R vs SPSS
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