Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanMatt Parkes @mattyjparkes.bsky.social · 11hIncreasingly feels like 60% of my time is 'logging into systems', and 60% of my inbox is made up of verification codes from logging into systems. 0215
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanIan Hussey @ianhussey.mmmdata.io · 29/09/2026Hayes has been banging this drum about idionomic analyses for 6+ years, with folk like @jamiecummins.bsky.social pointing out that its reinventing-the-wheel-but-worse for just as long. My experience is that the ACT community is insufficiently interested and aware of existing methods+stats work. 12311
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanIan Hussey @ianhussey.mmmdata.io · 28/09/2026Germany has cancelled funding for the German Cochrane Foundation. Bad news all around. Cochrane’s benefit to cost ratio is huge. @cochrane.org www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/wark...sueddeutsche.deBund streicht renommierter Cochrane-Stiftung die FörderungDie Cochrane-Stiftung, die seit Jahren die Nutzen medizinischer Therapien untersucht, soll künftig nicht mehr staatlich gefördert werden. 32813
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanSaloni @scientificdiscovery.dev · 25/09/2026Happy Friday! Iʼve created a game for you to play! Will AI cure all diseases in 10 years? Inspired by bottlenecks discourse, I created a game to help build your intuitions. Play it here: game.clinicaltrialsabundance.blog Naturally, it’s bottle-themed with bubbles and there are leaderboards too. 33810
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanSolomon @solomonrmissouri.com · 24/09/2026lol lol lol lol lol lol lol 913437925
Reposted by Ruben C. Arslanmoin syed @syeducation.bsky.social · 22/09/2026The paper was led by the excellent doctoral student Abby Person, who has a hilariously fake-sounding name when using her first and middle initials with her last name. 2625
Reposted by Ruben C. Arslanmoin syed @syeducation.bsky.social · 22/09/2026The findings in one figure: nearly every article included all three types of generalizability claims. 1142
Reposted by Ruben C. Arslanmoin syed @syeducation.bsky.social · 22/09/2026New paper! Despite qualitative researchers claiming that generalizability is not a goal, their published work does indeed contain generalizable claims. We document this and provide recommendations for how all researchers can better calibrate their generalizability claims. doi.org/10.1177/2515... 619255
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanTom Rodebaugh @drrodebaugh.bsky.social · 18/09/2026New from my lab! So, you've heard that habituation during exposure doesn't predict overall treatment change. Emotional processing theory must be wrong and we need a new theory. But... what if the measurement of habituation was unreliable? Free for 50 days link: authors.elsevier.com/c/1noIo39qZA... 1285
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanDan Quintana @dsquintana.bsky.social · 19/09/2026New preprint! 🎉 I analysed 1660 papers from 4 psychology journals and found materials sharing went from 9% of papers in 2015 to 82% in 2025, and these materials *do* get downloaded — a median of 135 times each. BUT shared code is often hard to run. doi.org/10.31234/osf... Let's walk through it 🧵 4264111
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanKevin A. Scott, PhD @sculpturatus.bsky.social · 17/09/2026found at ucsf 9555116
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanMalte Elson @malte.the100.ci · 18/09/2026No ground truth, no witnesses. Uh. Yeah. [Verse] Roll up on the dataset, don't standardize a thing, Raw units, mixed scales, let the big variable be king. Pick my k in advance 'cause I already know the story, Three clusters in the grant, so it's three, that's the glory. - Clusta Rhymes 3235
Ruben C. Arslan @ruben.the100.ci · 18/09/2026I just posted a comment on Pubpeer and a new blog post. A journalist had asked me to comment on a new menstrual cycle paper on conspicuous consumption. After a brief investigation, I found severe errors that changed the conclusions. rubenarslan.github.io/posts/2026-0...rubenarslan.github.ioOne lives only to make blunders: HIBAR: Fertility and Conspicuous ConsumptionHad I Been a Reviewer. 1123
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanRuben C. Arslan @ruben.the100.ci · 18/09/2026This is very misleading. The effect size for treatment of .30 is a Cohen's d from RCTs, i.e. causal. The effect size for alliance is a Pearson's r of .30 (more like .6 expressed as d) and massively subject to confounding and reverse causation. So, this is not at all comparing like with like. 1104
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanNick Brown @steamtraen.eu · 17/09/2026Now published online at AMPPS: Our (me and Andrew Gelman) reply to the response by Aungle et al. to our comment on the Aungle & Langer article. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/... Relatedly, we really need a standard name for each stage of the comment–reply sequence!journals.sagepub.comThis Is the Reason for External Replication: Response to Aungle et al. - Nicholas J. L. Brown, Andrew Gelman, 2026 6218
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanJohannes Zimmermann @jzpsych.bsky.social · 17/09/2026New preprint: population-representative norms for the PID-5 and its short forms (PID-5-SF, PID-5-BF, PID5BF+M), conditional on age and gender, for the German population. With @andrekerber.bsky.social, Christoph Kemper & Katharina Weweck. osf.io/preprints/ps... 1117
Ruben C. Arslan @ruben.the100.ci · 16/09/2026www.experimental-history.com/p/there-is-n... From the guy who brought us "The illusion of moral decline", now out: a new and exciting illusion of moral decline.experimental-history.comThere is no epidemic of loneliness, but there is an epidemic of scurvyOR: hey buddy, your teeth are falling out 181
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanBill Chopik @chops310.bsky.social · 14/09/2026Hi, I'd like to apply for the lifetime achievement award. Although my chronological age would seemingly render me ineligible, my biological age? Firmly in the eligibility window. How old do I feel (subjective age)? I'm at death's door. Thank you for your consideration 3206
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanJulia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 27/08/2026Psychological Science special issue call 📣 Ever had your research denigrated bc it's "only descriptive", "what's the mechanism though?" and "but what are the theoretical implications?" Now has come your time to shine. Send your best descriptive work! www.psychologicalscience.org/publications... 7244128
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanMatthew B. Jané @matthewbjane.bsky.social · 13/09/2026I’ve been quiet on social media lately, but today I’m launching Audit Clinical Evidence (ACE), an initiative I’ve been developing over the past year. Take a look: AuditClinicalEvidence.orgauditclinicalevidence.orgACEIndependent audits of published clinical research for statistical errors, data inconsistencies, and research integrity violations. 89132
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanIan Hussey @ianhussey.mmmdata.io · 13/09/2026Separately, the author of the retracted article has written a book called "100 Ways to Future-Proof Your Brain" which she claims has sold over 100k copies. This would be remarkable given its negative reviews www.goodreads.com/book/show/23... 1151
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanIan Hussey @ianhussey.mmmdata.io · 13/09/2026Article now retracted. Retraction notice focuses on data sharing, but doesn't mention - the ethics review body is the author's own company - the tech used to to collect the data by intercepting users' LLM prompts does not exist ht @grinschglsandra.bsky.social psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/202...psycnet.apa.orgAPA PsycNet 511435
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanSaloni @scientificdiscovery.dev · 11/09/2026I'm having a similar experience, although have only received a few emails like this so far. Some are so stingy about tokens that they don't start trying to check the work unless I confirm it's eligible for a reward. 3112
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanJulia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 11/09/2026This is a wild story, but I also like the idea that if we declare bounties on the right things, some random guy who tells the AI “make me 50 usd make no mistakes” may lead to some good outcomes. 4454
Ruben C. Arslan @ruben.the100.ci · 11/09/2026An interesting thing is happening to me at the moment. I have a standing bug bounty policy for my first authored scientific work. That means, I've committed to pay people who report bugs in my code, up to 750€ for severe errors. Since GPT-6 Astra came out, I'm now getting several bug reports daily. 39233
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanMichael Dufner @michduf.bsky.social · 08/09/2026Finally out: our systematic review on self-knowledge and adjustment! journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/... Bottom line: Surprisingly little evidence that accurate self-knowledge is beneficial. But also: clear need for different kinds of studiesjournals.sagepub.com 023
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanSimon Columbus @simoncolumbus.bsky.social · 04/09/2026A lot of this research is really bad. One of these effects people just *want* to be true, so researchers can get away with shoddy crosssectional analyses and handwaving. 2226
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanJulia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 04/09/2026This is such a classic, it even made it onto my slides on surrogate experiments. It’s peak internalvaliditymaxxing. 2293
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanJulia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 03/09/2026Very few people know that this is how it all began @celestialsem.bsky.social 27414
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanMichel Nivard @michelnivard.bsky.social · 02/09/2026We then asked: are population GWAS of personality mostly tagging family background or confounded by gene-environment correlations or population stratification? Within-family analyses suggest: largely no. Prediction within families was about 96% as large as population-level prediction. 1113
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanMichel Nivard @michelnivard.bsky.social · 02/09/2026First, the people. Ted Schwaba ( @tedmond.bsky.social) led this huge effort and somehow got us through. He’s now on paternity leave, so I get to do the thread. The project co-supervised by me and my long-time collaborator Elliot Tucker-Drob (@tuckerdrob.bsky.social.) and has dozens of co-authors 183
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanMichel Nivard @michelnivard.bsky.social · 02/09/2026🚨& 🧵 Our new Nature paper is out! Across 46 cohorts and up to 1.14M people per Big Five trait, we do GWAS and ask how robust, generalizable and consequential the genetic signals underlying personality really are. www.nature.com/articles/s41...nature.com 614268
Reposted by Ruben C. Arslansimine vazire @simine.com · 28/08/2026Psych Science (the journal) is broader than you might think! Do you do descriptive research? Or research w/ underrepresented populations or cultural frameworks? Or research on AI/LLMs for psych? Or research testing lab findings in the real world? We have a special issue for that! 14931
Reposted by Ruben C. Arslansimine vazire @simine.com · 02/09/2026Psych Science has retracted Ariely & Wertenbroch (2002). The second author requested the retraction. Both authors agreed to it. journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.... So grateful to @datacolada.bsky.social for these blog posts and the work behind them: datacolada.org/138 and datacolada.org/139 1/2journals.sagepub.comSage Journals: Discover world-class researchSubscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher. 426794
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanData Colada @datacolada.bsky.social · 31/08/2026An influential paper by Ariely & Wertenbroch (2002) reported two studies with tampered data. Post 1 of 2. datacolada.org/138datacolada.org[138] Artificial Deadlines (Part 1): Evidence of Fraud in an Influential Study About ProcrastinationA new paper in Psychological Science (.htm) reports a failure to replicate Study 2 of Ariely and Wertenbroch’s influential article entitled, “Procrastination, Deadlines, and Performance: Self-Contr… 723799
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanMatt Darling @besttrousers.bsky.social · 31/08/2026This was clever - students were much less likely to report their data using round numbers in the 2002 data (suggesting it was manipulated). 6895
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanMatt Darling @besttrousers.bsky.social · 31/08/2026It's funny that the non-round numbers reported are all "multiples of 5", "2" and "69". 1462
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanAssociation for Psychological Science @psychscience.bsky.social · 19/08/2026Psychological Science invites submissions for a special issue: “Advancing Psychological Science Using Large Language Models” #LLMs Stage 1 Registered Reports due October 15. Regular articles due March 15. Questions? Ask the Editors: @jamiecummins.bsky.social and @ruben.the100.cipsychologicalscience.orgSpecial Issue Call for Submissions: “Advancing Psychological Science Using Large Language Models”Editors: Jamie Cummins and Ruben C. ArslanPsychological Science invites submissions for a special issue on psychological science involving large language models. We welcome theoretically and empirical... 057
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanSaloni @scientificdiscovery.dev · 17/08/2026It's finally here! I gave a TED talk in April in Vancouver, and it was released online today. You can watch it here: ted.com/talks/saloni... I've also adapted it into an article, which was published last week: worksinprogress.co/issue/future... 611923
Ruben C. Arslan @ruben.the100.ci · 13/08/2026maddening. researchers shouldn't abide such policies not to disclose massive errors. pubpeer first, then the journal gets a chance to do the right thing. 0287
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanJulia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 13/08/2026A welcome opportunity to revive this one 27012
Reposted by Ruben C. Arslanvincentholst.bsky.social @vincentholst.bsky.social · 13/08/2026Instead of a decline in the disruptiveness of scientific and technological knowledge, the data mainly show an increasing metadata quality over time: relatively fewer papers with zero references due to database errors. 7/8 14013
Reposted by Ruben C. Arslanvincentholst.bsky.social @vincentholst.bsky.social · 13/08/2026In 2023, @nature.com published 'Papers and patents are becoming less disruptive over time', receiving world-wide media attention. Our Matters Arising, published after a 32 month delay (more on that soon), shows that the reported decline can largely be attributed to dataset artefacts. 🧵 9351173
Reposted by Ruben C. Arslanderek guy @dieworkwear.bsky.social · 13/08/2026I enjoyed this. ordinaryabundance.comordinaryabundance.comOrdinary AbundanceA walk through a modern apartment, through the eyes of the people for whom everything in it was new. 753423907
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanSaloni @scientificdiscovery.dev · 11/08/2026BIG NEW piece by me. A few years ago, if you asked me to summarize my entire worldview in one article, I would’ve said it was too broad and too difficult. But this year, I decided to do it.worksinprogress.coEvery disease is a policy failureFew people know how much medicine has progressed in their lifetimes. Fewer know how much faster it could be progressing. 1327189
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanJamie Cummins @jamiecummins.bsky.social · 11/08/2026A brave and tough call to make. It's hard to overstate how influential OSF has been on science in the past ~15 years. It's been such a staple that you'd almost forget how much cost, time, and effort it must be to keep going. Kudos to the OSF team for everything they've done. 04616
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanVishnu Sreekumar @vishnusreekumar.bsky.social · 05/08/2026📢 ***Call for papers at Psychological Science (APS)*** Dr Roni Porat and I are editing a special issue, "From Lab to Life: Psychological Science in the Real World.” Please see the detailed call here (www.psychologicalscience.org/publications...) and send us your best work! 41923
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanJulia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 08/08/2026New blog post in which we discover the secret to immortality: accounting errors. www.the100.ci/2026/08/08/m...the100.ciMy Immortal Time BiasPreamble: This shortie is my attempt to come up with an example that makes the problem underlying immortal time bias as obvious as possible. In Japan, people who reach the age of 100 are handed a co... 128031
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanSholto David @sholtodavid.bsky.social · 06/08/2026A tool used to rephrase plagiarised text changed "final solution" to "mass killing of an ethnic group" in a chemistry paper. Now retracted thanks to a PubPeer user who spotted this. pubpeer.com/publications... 271037404
Reposted by Ruben C. ArslanHadley Wickham @hadley.nz · 06/08/2026This what pivot_wider() was born for 520427