Reposted by Martin ModrákIan Coldwater 🧊🚫 @lookitup.baby · 30/09/2026BREAKING NEWS: “Do geese see God” is a palindrome 14074141778
Reposted by Martin ModrákSanho Tree @sanho.bsky.social · 26/09/2026Happy Stanislav Petrov day! He saved the world from nuclear annihilation on this day in 1983. My freshman year in college would have been so much worse without his courage.🧵 5599185
Reposted by Martin ModrákOs Keyes @okeyes.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Since we’re doing another round of “AI will destroy humanity” doom-hype, it’s a good time to announce a new paper myself and my postdoc advisor just had accepted by BioSocieties on just this. TL;DR: almost all the “AI can make bioweapons” literature comes ultimately from the Effective Altruists.ironholds.org 17731269
Reposted by Martin ModrákRobert Komaniecki @komaniecki.bsky.social · 27/09/2026“Why shouldn’t I custom-generate all of my child’s media?” Because the point of children’s literature, music, art, and movies is not to optimize leisure time, it is to provide your children with cultural, emotional, societal, and epistemic touch points via which they can relate to the wider world. 617643
Reposted by Martin ModrákRichard McElreath 🐈⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Thoughts and prayers for research data managers everywhere. You are not alone. We will get through this together techcommunity.microsoft.com/blog/excelbl...techcommunity.microsoft.comExcel now supports multiple values in a single cell | Microsoft Community HubLists, arrays in cells, and nested arrays introduce new ways to store and organize related information, helping you keep data together without sacrificing... 2841984
Reposted by Martin ModrákStand Up for Science! @standupforscience.net · 18/09/2026Your life saving clinical trail could be TERMINATED by the Trump administration. We scraped through the data and found that 50% of all clinical trials are at risk of being cancelled. It's time to talk about it and what you can do to stop this. 🧵 🧪 217697
Reposted by Martin ModrákCatalina I. Fernández, PhD (she/her) @catferna.bsky.social · 22/09/2026New in the saga of our causal model of human growth 🚼🧬📈at AJBA: can we reconstruct growth trajectories when kids’ ages are uncertain & all we have is cross-sectional data? Turns out, YES! 🎉 Accurate estimates, with exciting (?!) implications for bioarchaeology and beyond. doi.org/10.1002/ajpa.70358doi.org 2104
Reposted by Martin ModrákAlex Holcombe @alexh.bsky.social · 21/09/2026Consequences of the flood of AI manuscripts: "An early-career researcher at an unbranded institution loses the one mechanism that ever let them be read on merit — anonymous review of the work itself, however badly it functioned in practice. 410823
Reposted by Martin ModrákGabriele Pollara @gpollara.bsky.social · 21/09/2026More diagnostic tests don't always = better or reduced antibiotic prescribing. Well, not CRP in primary care anyway! #IDSky #ClinMicro @jac-amr.bsky.social academic.oup.com/jacamr/artic...academic.oup.comIs C-reactive protein the answer to antibiotics over-prescribing in primary care? A behavioural experiment in two European countriesAbstractBackground. Antibiotic overprescribing fuels antimicrobial resistance. C-reactive protein (CRP) is widely promoted as a point-of-care test for targ 3115
Reposted by Martin ModrákJiggety Jatters. The worst name. @jessefuchs.bsky.social · 21/09/2026www.ling.upenn.edu/~beatrice/11...ling.upenn.eduUncleftish beholding 2121
Reposted by Martin ModrákPer Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 21/09/2026Need new examples for teaching confounding and reverse causality to my undergrads. Send any published statistical crimes my way please. 7238
Reposted by Martin ModrákBen Recht @beenwrekt.bsky.social · 18/09/2026@dsquareddigest.bsky.social "13 Theses on AI and regulation" are exceptionally good. My favorite set of thoughts I've read on this topic so far.backofmind.substack.com13 theses on agentic AI and regulationthinking out loud and showing traces of reasoning 0224
Reposted by Martin ModrákMike Murphy @mjamurphy.bsky.social · 18/09/2026I would take the alignment stuff more seriously if anyone in the space appeared remotely interested in the cases of AI being used to kill people *which have already happened* 042
Reposted by Martin ModrákRichard McElreath 🐈⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 18/09/2026Happy to see others emphasizing traceability (Nachvollziehbarkeit) over simple reproducibility. Let’s make fetch happen! 15511
Reposted by Martin ModrákGautam Kamath @gautamkamath.com · 16/09/2026Nihar Shah did a heroic experiment for TMLR: he spent 20-25 hours over two weeks interviewing authors of seemingly low-quality submissions about their own papers. He confirmed what we all suspected: people submitting these papers have *no idea* what is going on in them. 5276110
Reposted by Martin ModrákPeter Ellis @freerangestats.info · 16/09/2026Inspired by a @f2harrell.bsky.social comment, I did some #rstats simulations about how big a sample needs to be for the central limit theorem to kick in and the sample mean be normally distributed for inference purposes. Yes, with skewed data the answer is "lots". freerangestats.info/blog/2026/09... 33315
Reposted by Martin ModrákF.D. Shook III @fds.wsocial.eu · 16/09/20265,000-year-old drainage system found at #LimanTepe #Archaeology #Europe #History #Science #Turkeyhurriyetdailynews.com5,000-year-old drainage system found at Liman TepeArchaeologists conducting joint land and underwater excavations at Liman Tepe, an archaeological site in the western province of İzmir’s Urla district, have uncovered a nearly 5,000-year-old drainage ... 062
Reposted by Martin ModrákJoe Bak-Coleman @jbakcoleman.bsky.social · 16/09/2026I replied to @zachlowenba.bsky.social (whose work I love) but feel like it probably deserves a longer thread a QT. Setting aside the AI bit, I don't think the question(s) are coherent, but they sure are harmful. 🧵 1147
Reposted by Martin ModrákDanielle Navarro @djnavarro.net · 15/09/2026In her ongoing quest to convince #rstats users to stop invoking the cursed "rm(list=ls())" incantation at the top of their analysis scripts, she has released sessioncheck 0.2 on CRAN. Mostly unchanged, some bug fixes, some new reporting features that are most useful in the regulatory contextblog.djnavarro.netRelease: sessioncheck 0.2 – Notes from a data witchIn which the author realises she doesn’t know how to write package release posts 4439
Martin Modrák @modrakm.bsky.social · 14/09/2026I will be looking for a PhD student in Bayesian statistics (in collaboration with Paul Bürkner), located in Prague. Forward to students if you have somebody who could be interested. www.martinmodrak.cz/grammo-call/martinmodrak.cz Grammo - Let's Research Bayes! 03224
Reposted by Martin ModrákJulia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 14/09/2026Okay before I do write my screed about cluster analysis, please send me your favorite *positive* examples that illustrate the utility of the method! 304011
Reposted by Martin ModrákRichard McElreath 🐈⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 12/09/2026I do wonder what David Hilbert would think about all this. He was accused of trying to automate mathematics, in the 1920s! The "Hilbert program" failed in an exact sense, because Gödel, but it succeeded by making formal proof systems like Lean possible. And Lean makes the AI-sausage-machine work. 3749
Reposted by Martin ModrákFelipe Fontana Vieira @felipefv.bsky.social · 11/09/2026Next week I will give a free webinar about how I have been using Nix (by itself) but mainly through {rix} for my current articles. If anyone is intested, my plan for the structure of the webinar (in the comments): 11913
Reposted by Martin Modráktj mahr 🤘 @tjmahr.com · 10/09/2026i'm using my solarizeddocx which i made way back when because the default RMarkdown MS Word output looked bad github.com/tjmahr/solar...github.comGitHub - tjmahr/solarizeddocx: A refence docx file for pandoc with solarized syntax highlightingA refence docx file for pandoc with solarized syntax highlighting - tjmahr/solarizeddocx 021
Reposted by Martin ModrákMel Andrews @bayesianboy.bsky.social · 11/09/2026You can now read this invaluable book on methods in philosophy of science open-access. Find me in Chapter 16! 0364
Reposted by Martin ModrákLuna Fazio @lunafazio.bsky.social · 09/09/2026Had a Zoom meeting earlier today where a lot of great exchanges were happening in the chat, so we wanted to save the log for later. Zoom exports a plain text file, so I made a tool to convert that into something that's more convenient to interact with. Sharing in case anyone else finds it useful! 153
Reposted by Martin Modrákponder @ponder.ooo · 08/09/2026lmao what the fuck do you mean it's unlikely but you can't rule it out. do you not know what you're training your models on? are you guys unaware of what's going on in your own operation? does openai research not have any knowledge of what data they train their models on? 1528233
Reposted by Martin ModrákNoah Haber @whaleactually.com · 08/09/2026... and that's where Registered Revisions comes in The Registered Revisions Meta Trial Pilot Report is OUT NOW!! osf.io/preprints/me... But new(ish) policy involves developing a new(ish) multi-headed trial design, workflows, infrastructure, piloting, mistakes, and a super team. And it's all here. 22117
Reposted by Martin ModrákMartin Modrák @modrakm.bsky.social · 17/07/2026Multiverse analysis, abdication of responsibility and manufacturing of doubt: I have written on some downsides I see with multiverse analysis (which I like in principle): arxiv.org/abs/2607.14623 I was inspired/provoked to write it by @dingdingpeng.the100.ci (thanks!) 45818
Reposted by Martin ModrákRichard McElreath 🐈⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 04/09/2026It's a systemic problem in science reporting that these summaries exaggerate the evidence. In the actual candy study, the participants were all students, status was manipulated in the lab by telling some students they were better than others, and "nearly twice" means 1 piece vs 2 pieces. 1329166
Reposted by Martin ModrákKate Starbird @katestarbird.bsky.social · 03/09/2026Seattle Times comes out against I-638. It s terrible law, based in bigotry, that hurts all girls who want to compete in school sports, requiring invasive sex testing. If you’re in WA state or know someone who is, please spread the word: Vote NO on I-638. www.seattletimes.com/opinion/edit...seattletimes.comSeattle Times recommends 'No' on I-638, ban on trans girls in sports | EditorialIf this were a “Washington problem“ it would be worth studying as a pressing issue to be resolved by the electorate, informed with science. But it is not. 8330149
Reposted by Martin ModrákMatt Makel @mattmakel.bsky.social · 31/08/2026I made a mistake. And because of that mistake, I no longer have confidence that results that I reported in several research papers are an accurate reflection of replication rates. 1/ 19430
Reposted by Martin ModrákBerna Devezer @devezer.bsky.social · 28/08/2026OK I have to point this out: So he does know how experiments work because last I remember, he (and colleagues) tried to sell the story that reforms work using a design that did not have a corresponding treatment or control about the reforms, and insisted that there was strong evidence of causation. 2313
Reposted by Martin ModrákBerna Devezer @devezer.bsky.social · 28/08/2026We need to stop this nonsense of insisting on viewing scientific error as a problem to be eliminated. Scientific error is the fuel we need for scientific progress. Without uncertainty, we don't need science. With forced certainty and required faith, we get religion 311026
Reposted by Martin ModrákAndrew Gelman et al. @statmodeling.bsky.social · 25/08/2026Bayesian Workflow free pdf! statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/08/25/b...statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu Bayesian Workflow free pdf! | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science 17429
Reposted by Martin ModrákDemetri @phdemetri.bsky.social · 26/08/2026Bayes doesn't make experiments run faster. Stop saying this dpananos.github.io/posts/2026-0...dpananos.github.ioBayes Does Not Make Experiments Faster On Its Own – Demetri Pananos Ph.D 5226
Reposted by Martin ModrákDr Abeba Birhane @abeba.blacksky.app · 25/08/2026no devices and low-tech for billionaires’ kids but ai for the rest of us plebs www.nytimes.com/2026/08/18/t...nytimes.comSilicon Valley Executives Are Tech Fans. Just Not for Their Own Kids.At home, moderation and restraint are the rule for tech parents. Boredom is exalted. Maybe they’re onto something. 11831304
Reposted by Martin ModrákRafe Meager (they/them) @economeager.bsky.social · 25/08/2026ok so you know how we all get like that overwhelming horror when we consider how many people in applied quant classes do not know what a file directory is or what a filepath is or etc. my question is, how do these people ordinarily retrieve saved files. search? like they remember the filenames? 2013110
Reposted by Martin ModrákMC Stan @mc-stan.org · 18/08/2026There is now StanCon 2026 Uppsala playlist www.youtube.com/playlist?lis... At the moment talks by @mjskay.com, @aseyboldt.bsky.social, @paulbuerkner.com, @charlesm993.bsky.social are up, and we'll keep uploading more during the weekyoutube.comStanCon 2026 Uppsala - YouTube 23717
Reposted by Martin ModrákAki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social · 18/08/2026 @mjskay.com starting the StanCon 2026 talks with "Systematic uncertainty visualization design (and its foundation in probabilistic models)" All talks are recorded and will be made available after the conference 0385
Reposted by Martin ModrákIan Hussey @ianhussey.mmmdata.io · 14/08/2026I’ve been told for years that it’s legally and ethically impossible to share medical RCT data. In 2024, the BMJ made sharing anonymised data mandatory, and now lots* of folk do it. Interesting how the barriers evaporated like that, isn’t it? *not everyone, compliance problems exist.medrxiv.orgAvailability of clinical trial individual patient data in the BMJ before and after adoption of a stringent data-sharing policy, compared with recent rates at other major medical journalsBackground In 2024, the BMJ updated its data-sharing policy for clinical trials, requiring open deposit of deidentified individual participant data (IPD) before publication. We considered whether data... 510040
Reposted by Martin ModrákAki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social · 13/08/2026All four books I've co-authored are freely available online for non-commercial use: - Bayesian Workflow at avehtari.github.io/Bayesian-Wor... Links to other three books are in the quoted post 👇 (too many books to fit in one post!)avehtari.github.ioBayesian Workflow book: Website – Bayesian Workflow bookWebsite for the Bayesian Workflow book by Gelman, Vehtari, McElreath, et al. — case studies, code, and exercises in R and Stan. 8283134
Reposted by Martin ModrákJoe Bak-Coleman @jbakcoleman.bsky.social · 01/08/2026A must read by @jwlockhart.bsky.social on the money behind open science. He’s spot on that there are some subjects you just can’t touch with typical peer reviewers in #metascience scatter.wordpress.com/2026/07/31/s...scatter.wordpress.comscience funding and the cherry picking problemScience publishing–like all of science–requires money. There’s no getting around it, even with the open science movement. What appears free to many authors and readers still requires money and infr… 34721
Reposted by Martin ModrákBorut Trpin @boruttrpin.bsky.social · 31/07/2026The Journal of Mathematical Philosophy is now open for submissions! It is fully open access, with no fees for authors or readers. Please help spread the word, and do consider sending us your work. Very happy to be part of the inaugural editorial board. mathematicalphilosophy.org/mathphilmathematicalphilosophy.org 35929
Reposted by Martin ModrákRafe Meager (they/them) @economeager.bsky.social · 31/07/2026Happy friday! open.substack.com/pub/rottenan...open.substack.comSkin in the GameA shorter one this time, shadows and ambiguity, articulation as a norm violation 7309
Reposted by Martin ModrákJulia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 30/07/2026New blog post! Odds ratios are...a bit weird. Here I explain two problems (interpretation, non-collapsibility) and provide some simple recommendations for improved reporting. www.the100.ci/2026/07/30/r...the100.ciReviewer notes: Odds ratios are really oddWhen psychological researchers investigate binary outcomes, they routinely report odds ratios to quantify the strength of an effect or an association. This is quite understandable given that psycholog... 2428779
Reposted by Martin ModrákSaloni @scientificdiscovery.dev · 28/07/2026I'm interested in finding and potentially supporting people who are interested in doing long-form writing on the big efforts in global health: Gavi, Global Fund, PEPFAR, etc. If this is you or someone you know, please make yourself known! 58174