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Martin Modrák

@modrakm.bsky.social
1.4K followers 46 following 286 posts

Biostatistics/bioinformatics at Charles University, 2nd faculty of Medicine. Bayesian in practice, but not a fan of Bayesian epistemology. Main on fedi: bayes.club/@modrak_m Blog: martinmodrak.cz

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Reposted by Martin Modrák
Ian Coldwater 🧊🚫 @lookitup.baby · 30/09/2026
BREAKING NEWS: “Do geese see God” is a palindrome
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Sanho Tree @sanho.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Happy Stanislav Petrov day! He saved the world from nuclear annihilation on this day in 1983. My freshman year in college would have been so much worse without his courage.🧵
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Os Keyes @okeyes.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Since we’re doing another round of “AI will destroy humanity” doom-hype, it’s a good time to announce a new paper myself and my postdoc advisor just had accepted by BioSocieties on just this. TL;DR: almost all the “AI can make bioweapons” literature comes ultimately from the Effective Altruists.
ironholds.org
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Robert Komaniecki @komaniecki.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
“Why shouldn’t I custom-generate all of my child’s media?” Because the point of children’s literature, music, art, and movies is not to optimize leisure time, it is to provide your children with cultural, emotional, societal, and epistemic touch points via which they can relate to the wider world.
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Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Thoughts and prayers for research data managers everywhere. You are not alone. We will get through this together techcommunity.microsoft.com/blog/excelbl...
techcommunity.microsoft.com
Excel now supports multiple values in a single cell | Microsoft Community Hub
Lists, arrays in cells, and nested arrays introduce new ways to store and organize related information, helping you keep data together without sacrificing...
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Stand Up for Science! @standupforscience.net · 18/09/2026
Your life saving clinical trail could be TERMINATED by the Trump administration. We scraped through the data and found that 50% of all clinical trials are at risk of being cancelled. It's time to talk about it and what you can do to stop this. 🧵 🧪
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Catalina I. Fernández, PhD (she/her) @catferna.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
New in the saga of our causal model of human growth 🚼🧬📈at AJBA: can we reconstruct growth trajectories when kids’ ages are uncertain & all we have is cross-sectional data? Turns out, YES! 🎉 Accurate estimates, with exciting (?!) implications for bioarchaeology and beyond. doi.org/10.1002/ajpa.70358
doi.org
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Alex Holcombe @alexh.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Consequences of the flood of AI manuscripts: "An early-career researcher at an unbranded institution loses the one mechanism that ever let them be read on merit — anonymous review of the work itself, however badly it functioned in practice.
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Gabriele Pollara @gpollara.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
More diagnostic tests don't always = better or reduced antibiotic prescribing. Well, not CRP in primary care anyway! #IDSky #ClinMicro @jac-amr.bsky.social academic.oup.com/jacamr/artic...
academic.oup.com
Is C-reactive protein the answer to antibiotics over-prescribing in primary care? A behavioural experiment in two European countries
AbstractBackground. Antibiotic overprescribing fuels antimicrobial resistance. C-reactive protein (CRP) is widely promoted as a point-of-care test for targ
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Jiggety Jatters. The worst name. @jessefuchs.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
www.ling.upenn.edu/~beatrice/11...
ling.upenn.edu
Uncleftish beholding
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Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Need new examples for teaching confounding and reverse causality to my undergrads. Send any published statistical crimes my way please.
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Ben Recht @beenwrekt.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
@dsquareddigest.bsky.social "13 Theses on AI and regulation" are exceptionally good. My favorite set of thoughts I've read on this topic so far.
backofmind.substack.com
13 theses on agentic AI and regulation
thinking out loud and showing traces of reasoning
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Noah Betz-Richman @nbetz.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Picture of an X exchange.

First post: picture of 17 cubes of tofu fit into a ziplock bag using the optimal packing of 17 squares. 
Caption: “Wife told me these wouldn’t fit. Little did she know I had trained for this moment for years.”

Second post: “There’s no way someone actually found a practical use for the ideal packing of 17 cubes”
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Mike Murphy @mjamurphy.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
I would take the alignment stuff more seriously if anyone in the space appeared remotely interested in the cases of AI being used to kill people *which have already happened*
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Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Happy to see others emphasizing traceability (Nachvollziehbarkeit) over simple reproducibility. Let’s make fetch happen!
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Gautam Kamath @gautamkamath.com · 16/09/2026
Nihar Shah did a heroic experiment for TMLR: he spent 20-25 hours over two weeks interviewing authors of seemingly low-quality submissions about their own papers. He confirmed what we all suspected: people submitting these papers have *no idea* what is going on in them.
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Peter Ellis @freerangestats.info · 16/09/2026
Inspired by a @f2harrell.bsky.social comment, I did some #rstats simulations about how big a sample needs to be for the central limit theorem to kick in and the sample mean be normally distributed for inference purposes. Yes, with skewed data the answer is "lots". freerangestats.info/blog/2026/09...
Scatter plot with 8 facets, each showing a different distribution, and the actual coverage of a 95% confidence interval for the mean at different sample sizes. Most values are well below 95%.
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Greg Wester @gwestr.me · 16/09/2026
LOL
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F.D. Shook III @fds.wsocial.eu · 16/09/2026
5,000-year-old drainage system found at #LimanTepe #Archaeology #Europe #History #Science #Turkey
hurriyetdailynews.com
5,000-year-old drainage system found at Liman Tepe
Archaeologists conducting joint land and underwater excavations at Liman Tepe, an archaeological site in the western province of İzmir’s Urla district, have uncovered a nearly 5,000-year-old drainage ...
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Joe Bak-Coleman @jbakcoleman.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
I replied to @zachlowenba.bsky.social (whose work I love) but feel like it probably deserves a longer thread a QT. Setting aside the AI bit, I don't think the question(s) are coherent, but they sure are harmful. 🧵
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Danielle Navarro @djnavarro.net · 15/09/2026
In her ongoing quest to convince #rstats users to stop invoking the cursed "rm(list=ls())" incantation at the top of their analysis scripts, she has released sessioncheck 0.2 on CRAN. Mostly unchanged, some bug fixes, some new reporting features that are most useful in the regulatory context
blog.djnavarro.net
Release: sessioncheck 0.2 – Notes from a data witch
In which the author realises she doesn’t know how to write package release posts
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Martin Modrák @modrakm.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
I will be looking for a PhD student in Bayesian statistics (in collaboration with Paul Bürkner), located in Prague. Forward to students if you have somebody who could be interested. www.martinmodrak.cz/grammo-call/
martinmodrak.cz
Grammo - Let's Research Bayes!
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 14/09/2026
Okay before I do write my screed about cluster analysis, please send me your favorite *positive* examples that illustrate the utility of the method!
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Martin Modrák @modrakm.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
The road to IKEA is paved with good intentions.
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Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
I do wonder what David Hilbert would think about all this. He was accused of trying to automate mathematics, in the 1920s! The "Hilbert program" failed in an exact sense, because Gödel, but it succeeded by making formal proof systems like Lean possible. And Lean makes the AI-sausage-machine work.
Two panels from the graphic novel Logicomix.
Left: He wants a machine to feed it axioms and make theorems, like one where a pig enters the one side...
Right: ...and the sausages come out from the other!! (laughter)
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Felipe Fontana Vieira @felipefv.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Next week I will give a free webinar about how I have been using Nix (by itself) but mainly through {rix} for my current articles. If anyone is intested, my plan for the structure of the webinar (in the comments):
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tj mahr 🤘 @tjmahr.com · 10/09/2026
i'm using my solarizeddocx which i made way back when because the default RMarkdown MS Word output looked bad github.com/tjmahr/solar...
github.com
GitHub - tjmahr/solarizeddocx: A refence docx file for pandoc with solarized syntax highlighting
A refence docx file for pandoc with solarized syntax highlighting - tjmahr/solarizeddocx
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Mel Andrews @bayesianboy.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
You can now read this invaluable book on methods in philosophy of science open-access. Find me in Chapter 16!
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Luna Fazio @lunafazio.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Had a Zoom meeting earlier today where a lot of great exchanges were happening in the chat, so we wanted to save the log for later. Zoom exports a plain text file, so I made a tool to convert that into something that's more convenient to interact with. Sharing in case anyone else finds it useful!
Example of what a zoom chat log looks like (fictional conversation)The chat log after being converted into an interactable html
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ponder @ponder.ooo · 08/09/2026
lmao what the fuck do you mean it's unlikely but you can't rule it out. do you not know what you're training your models on? are you guys unaware of what's going on in your own operation? does openai research not have any knowledge of what data they train their models on?
we cannot rule out that de-identified data derived from their usage of our products helped improve our models⁠
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Noah Haber @whaleactually.com · 08/09/2026
... and that's where Registered Revisions comes in The Registered Revisions Meta Trial Pilot Report is OUT NOW!! osf.io/preprints/me... But new(ish) policy involves developing a new(ish) multi-headed trial design, workflows, infrastructure, piloting, mistakes, and a super team. And it's all here.
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Martin Modrák @modrakm.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Multiverse analysis, abdication of responsibility and manufacturing of doubt: I have written on some downsides I see with multiverse analysis (which I like in principle): arxiv.org/abs/2607.14623 I was inspired/provoked to write it by @dingdingpeng.the100.ci (thanks!)
Abstract: I argue that multiverse analysis is highly suited to two undesirable uses: abdication of researcher's responsibility for their conclusion and manufacturing of doubt. A review of multiverse analyses published in 2025 provides tentative empirical support that abdication of responsibility is present in the literature and I mention anecdotal evidence that multiverse has been used for manufacturing of doubt about Covid-19 precautions. To mitigate negative effects if multiverse analysis becomes widely used I suggest the community adopts two conventions for evaluating multiverse analyzes: evaluating multiverses by the single worst universe they contain and considering large size of a multiverse as a sign of weakness rather than a praiseworthy achievement.
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Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
It's a systemic problem in science reporting that these summaries exaggerate the evidence. In the actual candy study, the participants were all students, status was manipulated in the lab by telling some students they were better than others, and "nearly twice" means 1 piece vs 2 pieces.
Piff and his colleagues found that upper-class drivers were more likely to cut other cars off at junctions and ignore pedestrians at crossings. Wealthier people also appeared more willing to lie at work. In one experiment, volunteers were left alone with a jar of sweets ostensibly meant for children. When the researchers returned, upper-class people had snaffled nearly twice as many candies as lower-class people.
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Kate Starbird @katestarbird.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Seattle Times comes out against I-638. It s terrible law, based in bigotry, that hurts all girls who want to compete in school sports, requiring invasive sex testing. If you’re in WA state or know someone who is, please spread the word: Vote NO on I-638. www.seattletimes.com/opinion/edit...
seattletimes.com
Seattle Times recommends 'No' on I-638, ban on trans girls in sports | Editorial
If this were a “Washington problem“ it would be worth studying as a pressing issue to be resolved by the electorate, informed with science. But it is not.
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Matt Makel @mattmakel.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
I made a mistake. And because of that mistake, I no longer have confidence that results that I reported in several research papers are an accurate reflection of replication rates. 1/
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Berna Devezer @devezer.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
OK I have to point this out: So he does know how experiments work because last I remember, he (and colleagues) tried to sell the story that reforms work using a design that did not have a corresponding treatment or control about the reforms, and insisted that there was strong evidence of causation.
Dr. Nosek said that Transfyr would have to present detailed results to prove that this system really does make science better. “Take 50 labs, track half the experiments with this stuff and don’t track the other half — then look for differences in progress,” he suggested.
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Berna Devezer @devezer.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
We need to stop this nonsense of insisting on viewing scientific error as a problem to be eliminated. Scientific error is the fuel we need for scientific progress. Without uncertainty, we don't need science. With forced certainty and required faith, we get religion
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Andrew Gelman et al. @statmodeling.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Bayesian Workflow free pdf! statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/08/25/b...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
Bayesian Workflow free pdf! | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
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Demetri @phdemetri.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Bayes doesn't make experiments run faster. Stop saying this dpananos.github.io/posts/2026-0...
dpananos.github.io
Bayes Does Not Make Experiments Faster On Its Own – Demetri Pananos Ph.D
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Dr Abeba Birhane @abeba.blacksky.app · 25/08/2026
no devices and low-tech for billionaires’ kids but ai for the rest of us plebs www.nytimes.com/2026/08/18/t...
nytimes.com
Silicon Valley Executives Are Tech Fans. Just Not for Their Own Kids.
At home, moderation and restraint are the rule for tech parents. Boredom is exalted. Maybe they’re onto something.
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Rafe Meager (they/them) @economeager.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
ok so you know how we all get like that overwhelming horror when we consider how many people in applied quant classes do not know what a file directory is or what a filepath is or etc. my question is, how do these people ordinarily retrieve saved files. search? like they remember the filenames?
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MC Stan @mc-stan.org · 18/08/2026
There is now StanCon 2026 Uppsala playlist www.youtube.com/playlist?lis... At the moment talks by @mjskay.com, @aseyboldt.bsky.social, @paulbuerkner.com, @charlesm993.bsky.social are up, and we'll keep uploading more during the week
youtube.com
StanCon 2026 Uppsala - YouTube
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Aki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
@mjskay.com starting the StanCon 2026 talks with "Systematic uncertainty visualization design (and its foundation in probabilistic models)" All talks are recorded and will be made available after the conference
Photo of a person in front of a lecture hall
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Ian Hussey @ianhussey.mmmdata.io · 14/08/2026
I’ve been told for years that it’s legally and ethically impossible to share medical RCT data. In 2024, the BMJ made sharing anonymised data mandatory, and now lots* of folk do it. Interesting how the barriers evaporated like that, isn’t it? *not everyone, compliance problems exist.
medrxiv.org
Availability of clinical trial individual patient data in the BMJ before and after adoption of a stringent data-sharing policy, compared with recent rates at other major medical journals
Background In 2024, the BMJ updated its data-sharing policy for clinical trials, requiring open deposit of deidentified individual participant data (IPD) before publication. We considered whether data...
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Aki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
All four books I've co-authored are freely available online for non-commercial use: - Bayesian Workflow at avehtari.github.io/Bayesian-Wor... Links to other three books are in the quoted post 👇 (too many books to fit in one post!)
avehtari.github.io
Bayesian Workflow book: Website – Bayesian Workflow book
Website for the Bayesian Workflow book by Gelman, Vehtari, McElreath, et al. — case studies, code, and exercises in R and Stan.
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Joe Bak-Coleman @jbakcoleman.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
A must read by @jwlockhart.bsky.social on the money behind open science. He’s spot on that there are some subjects you just can’t touch with typical peer reviewers in #metascience scatter.wordpress.com/2026/07/31/s...
scatter.wordpress.com
science funding and the cherry picking problem
Science publishing–like all of science–requires money. There’s no getting around it, even with the open science movement. What appears free to many authors and readers still requires money and infr…
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Borut Trpin @boruttrpin.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
The Journal of Mathematical Philosophy is now open for submissions! It is fully open access, with no fees for authors or readers. Please help spread the word, and do consider sending us your work. Very happy to be part of the inaugural editorial board. mathematicalphilosophy.org/mathphil
mathematicalphilosophy.org
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Rafe Meager (they/them) @economeager.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Happy friday! open.substack.com/pub/rottenan...
open.substack.com
Skin in the Game
A shorter one this time, shadows and ambiguity, articulation as a norm violation
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 30/07/2026
New blog post! Odds ratios are...a bit weird. Here I explain two problems (interpretation, non-collapsibility) and provide some simple recommendations for improved reporting. www.the100.ci/2026/07/30/r...
the100.ci
Reviewer notes: Odds ratios are really odd
When psychological researchers investigate binary outcomes, they routinely report odds ratios to quantify the strength of an effect or an association. This is quite understandable given that psycholog...
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Saloni @scientificdiscovery.dev · 28/07/2026
I'm interested in finding and potentially supporting people who are interested in doing long-form writing on the big efforts in global health: Gavi, Global Fund, PEPFAR, etc. If this is you or someone you know, please make yourself known!
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