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Pierre-Simon Laplace

@learnbayesstats.bsky.social
392 followers 31 following 77 posts

A podcast on #BayesianStats -- the methods, the projects, the people By @alex-andorra.bsky.social Listen: tinyurl.com/pvz4ekky Support: tinyurl.com/2p8mpxnp

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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
What if we learned the likelihood instead of the posterior? In Episode 165, Alex Fengler joins @alex-andorra.bsky.social to discuss HSSM, likelihood approximation networks, amortized inference and simulation-based inference and more ... 🔗 learnbayesstats.com/episode/hssm... #Bayesian #PyMC
learnbayesstats.com
Hierarchical Sequential Sampling Modeling -- Alex Fengler
Alex Fengler explains HSSM, amortized inference, and likelihood approximation networks for cognitive process models like the drift diffusion model
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
In this special episode of Learning Bayesian Statistics, @alex-andorra.bsky.social is joined by Andrew Gelman, Aki Vehtari, and Richard McElreath to discuss Bayesian Workflow. From simulation and hierarchical pooling to causal inference, there’s a lot to unpack 🎧 lnkd.in/geX2QkxV #Bayesian
learnbayesstats.com
Bayesian Workflow - Gelman, Vehtari & McElreath
Andrew Gelman, Aki Vehtari, and Richard McElreath discuss their new book on Bayesian workflow, reverse Bayes and hierarchical pooling.
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
How can we make Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sample faster? In this episode, @alex-andorra.bsky.social , Adrian Seyboldt, and Eliot Carlson dive into HMC preconditioning, mass matrix adaptation, and Nutpie - including a median 4× speed-up across 114 models 🎧 learnbayesstats.com/episode/fast...
learnbayesstats.com
Sampling your models faster -- Seyboldt & Carlson
Adrian Seyboldt and Eliot Carlson explain Fisher divergence preconditioning, mass matrix adaptation, normalizing flows, and benchmarking samplers in Nutpie.
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Bayesian methods aren't going away in the age of LLMs. Christopher Krapu joins @alex-andorra.bsky.social to discuss GPUs, Gaussian Processes, probabilistic AI and more! 🎧 learnbayesstats.com/episode/baye... #bayesian #GPU #AI #LLM #Gaussianprocess #probablisticai
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Luigi Acerbi @lacerbi.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
1/ Great chat with Alex Andorra aka @learnbayesstats.bsky.social about efficient inference, from amortized to surrogate-based approaches and a variety of related topics (prior-fitted networks, foundation models for inference and planning, etc.), many of which are neural processes in a trenchcoat.
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Episode 161 is out 🎧 In which @lacerbi.bsky.social explains why transformers are secretly neural processes, how his Amortized Conditioning Engine unifies inference and prediction, and why "amortize everything" needed a rethink. 🔗 learnbayesstats.com/episode/161-... #bayesian #bayesianinference
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vadenmasrani.bsky.social @vadenmasrani.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Was so great chatting with you @learnbayesstats.bsky.social !!
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
🎙️ Bayesian epistemology is Bayesian statistics minus the statistics. In ep 160 Vaden Masrani joins @alex-andorra.bsky.social to talk about why Bayes' theorem is great with real data, why it breaks down on one-off future events with nothing to count👇 🔗 lnkd.in/d3v42BU2 #bayesianstatistics
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
🎙️ New episode! @alex-andorra.bsky.social sits down with Matthijs Hollanders on Bayesian occupancy models for wildlife data - what they are, why camera traps break classical approaches, and how his occARU R package handles it with hierarchical GPs and shrinkage priors. 🔗 lnkd.in/dw3WuMBg #bayes
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Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
So this is apparently happening
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
🚨 @rmcelreath.bsky.social @statmodeling.bsky.social & @avehtari.bsky.social are coming on the show mid-June to discuss their new book, Bayesian Workflow! ONE listener gets to bring a real Bayesian problem onto the recording and have the three of them work through it live. Here's how to enter 🧵
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
Episode 158 is out 🎙️ @alex-andorra.bsky.social sits down with Stefan Radev to talk amortized Bayesian inference, multiverse analysis, and what a foundation model for Bayesian inference should actually look like and more.. 🔗 lnkd.in/dau9_eA7 #BayesianStatistics #AmortizedInference #MachineLearning
learnbayesstats.com
Bayesian Workflows, Foundation Models & Sensitivity
Stefan Radev explains how simulations improve Bayesian workflows, how to do cheap sensitivity and multiverse analysis, and where BayesFlow is headed next.
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
🎙️ New episode alert! In this episode @alex-andorra.bsky.social & Stefan Radev dive into amortized inference, train a neural net once on sims, deploy on real data as many times as you want. They cover sim-to-real, psych & neuro as test beds, honest failure modes and more ... lnkd.in/dCY85k4g
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
Most stats thinking starts with a dataset. Bayesian experimental design asks: which data should you collect first? Ep 156 of Learning Bayesian Statistics with @alex-andorra.bsky.social and Adam Foster covers: 👉Expected information gain 👉BALD 👉Deep adaptive design and more ... 🎧 lnkd.in/ebjV9xXS
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
🎙️ New episode of Learning Bayesian Statistics! EP 155 with @alex-andorra.bsky.social & Andreas Munk, why Bayesian inference still hasn't broken into everyday use. The barrier isn't the math, it's the mental shift 🔗 lnkd.in/gchb6bqj #Bayesian #ProbablisticProgramming
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Alexandre Andorra @alex-andorra.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
⚽ Last week, I was thrilled and honored to present our #SoccerFactorModel to Field of Play 2026 in Manchester! 🎙️ It was an absolute blast meeting all these brilliant people, and I can't thank enough the FoP team, especially Dominic Jordan and John Carney for their trust and invitation! 🧵 Thread 👇
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Alexandre Andorra @alex-andorra.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
New episode is out, my dear Bayesians! All about #CausalInference, #Experimentation at scale, and #GaussianProcesses -- definitely a fun one!
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
New Episode Alert! 🎙️ Scaling #BayesianCausalInference with Thomas Pinder, Netflix & creator of GPJax Essential listening for anyone working at the frontier of Bayes, Experimentation & Causal Inference 📈 🔗 learnbayesstats.com/episode/154-... #Bayesian #JAX #MachineLearning #CausalInference #GPJax
learnbayesstats.com
Bayesian Causal Inference at Scale
Thomas Pinder discusses Bayesian causal inference and Gaussian processes. Explore synthetic control and diff-in-diff for industry
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Alexandre Andorra @alex-andorra.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
New episode is out 🍾
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
The show now has a blog section 🍾 Check out @alex-andorra.bsky.social 's first post!
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Alexandre Andorra @alex-andorra.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
Just published my first open-source #AgentSkill! It's called bayesian-workflow, and helps you do #BayesianAnaylsis the right way -- well, at least I hope... Check it out here: github.com/Learning-Bay...
github.com
GitHub - Learning-Bayesian-Statistics/baygent-skills: A set of skills to call your agent Bayes. Thomas Bayes.
A set of skills to call your agent Bayes. Thomas Bayes. - Learning-Bayesian-Statistics/baygent-skills
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
Fundraising = Belief Updating? 🧠📉 New episode is out! I'm talking with Cherian Koshy about the Neuroscience of Philanthropy. We discuss: ✅ Why generosity is hardwired ✅ Solving the Generosity Gap ✅ Cognitive friction ✅ Ethical AI Check it out: 🔗 learnbayesstats.com/episode/neur...
learnbaystats.com
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
Hellooooooo my dear Bayesians! We just open-sourced an #AgentSkill that teaches coding agents to do #Bayesian stats properly. No more skipped diagnostics, no more point estimates without uncertainty, no more "trace plots look fine". Works with Claude Code, Cursor, Kimi, Gemini CLI, and more
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
Episode 152 is out 🎙️ Host @alex-andorra.bsky.social talks with Daniel Saunders about a Bayesian decision theory workflow. Big idea: stop optimizing for model accuracy and start optimizing for decision value. 🔗 lnkd.in/gw_uGaZc #Bayesian #DecisionTheory #DataScience #Optimization
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
🎙️ New episode out now - Episode 151: Diffusion Models in Python, a Live Demo In this episode, @alex-andorra.bsky.social is joined by Jonas Arruda to explore how diffusion models can be used for simulation-based inference (SBI) in practice with a live Python demo and more ... 🎧 lnkd.in/gMyAfrW5
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
Bayesian neural networks need one thing to matter: good uncertainty. Scaling them has always been the hard part In this episode, host @alex-andorra.bsky.social with Emmanuel Sommer, Jakob Robnik, & David Rügamer explain what’s changing, faster sampling, better dynamics & more .. 🎧 lnkd.in/g2W5cZQZ
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
Work in tech is changing fast, and not always in obvious ways. @alex-andorra.bsky.social talks with Alana Karen about how AI, hiring, and management are reshaping careers behind the scenes, AI automating early work, hiring favoring familiarity … and more. 🎧 lnkd.in/gcRJVT-s #FutureOfWork
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Alexandre Andorra @alex-andorra.bsky.social · 02/01/2026
My #AdvancedRegressionModeling course, written with the brilliant Ravin Kumar and @tomicapretto.bsky.social, is now available through my Topmate profile! So do give it a try and let me know what you think in the comments 👇 See you soon in the Intuitive Bayes' Discourse 🖖 topmate.io/alex_andorra...
topmate.io
Your All-in-One Creator Storefront
Make money from your content. Sell products, host sessions, and grow your business — all from a single link.
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 01/01/2026
Clinical trials don’t fail because patients fail. They fail when designs stop learning. Episode 148 of Learning Bayesian Statistics explores adaptive & platform trials and why "wait for the final analysis" isn’t neutral in ALS or pandemics. 🔗 learnbayesstats.com/episode/148-... #newEpisode #bayes
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 15/12/2025
Fast Bayesian inference is great… until you’re babysitting convergence. @alex-andorra.bsky.social is joined by Martin Ingram to explore DADVI a more predictable, less noisy approach to variational inference that makes trade-offs explicit instead of mysterious 🎧 lnkd.in/gAX2iaHz #bayesianinference
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
🎙️ How do you tackle extreme physics experiments? Ethan Smith shares insights with @alex-andorra.bsky.social ✅ Bayesian inference for sparse, noisy data ✅ Priors guide well-established physical models ✅ Scaling Bayesian workflows across teams 🎧 lnkd.in/geA2kQm6 #Bayesian #LearningBayesianStats
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 14/11/2025
🎙️ What does it take to grow in tech? Jordan Thibodeau shares lessons from years inside top tech cultures with @alex-andorra.bsky.social ✅ Bayesian thinking as a practical advantage ✅ AI amplifies skill, not replaces it ✅ Networking & sharing knowledge matter 🎧 lnkd.in/ghk6D6nH #bayes #career
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Aki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social · 03/11/2025
Now I'm also looking for a research software engineer to implement a pile of research results to R packages loo, posterior, bayesplot, projpred, priorsense, brms or/and Python packages ArviZ, Bambi and Kulprit. Apply by email with no specific deadline (see contact info at users.aalto.fi/~ave/)
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 01/11/2025
Bayesian deep learning helps ML models understand their uncertainty In this episode @alex-andorra.bsky.social talks with Maurizio Filippone about Gaussian Processes, scalable inference, MCMC, and Bayesian deep learning at scale 🎧 learnbayesstats.com/episode/144-... #BayesianStats #AI #ML #Bayes
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 17/10/2025
🍽️ Can better nutrition science come from better statistics? In the latest episode, @alex-andorra.bsky.social chats with Christoph Bamberg about using a Bayesian mindset to make psychology & nutrition research more transparent and actionable 🎧 learnbayesstats.com/episode/143-... #bayes #nutrition
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Alexandre Andorra @alex-andorra.bsky.social · 06/10/2025
How to run #BART and #TreeModels fast in #Python -- new episode is out, with @gstechschulte.bsky.social !
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 06/10/2025
🤔How do you keep Bayesian rigor when the data’s too big to behave? @gstechschulte.bsky.social joins @alex-andorra.bsky.social on Learning Bayesian Statistics to talk BART and how they’re bridging classic stats with modern, large-scale systems. 🎧 Listen here: learnbayesstats.com/episode/142-...
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 20/09/2025
🧪 Causal inference is about understanding why things happen, not just what @alex-andorra.bsky.social talks with Sam Witty about ChiRho & how probabilistic programming is reshaping interventions, counterfactuals, and the future of causal reasoning 🎧 learnbayesstats.com/episode/141-... #newepisode
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 09/09/2025
🏈 NFL meets Bayesian stats! In this episode @alex-andorra.bsky.social chats with Ron Yurko on 👉 Writing your own models 👉 Building a sports analytics portfolio 👉 Pitfalls of modelling expectations 👉 Using tracking data for player insights 👉 Causal thinking in football data 🎧 lnkd.in/gWz4v2JG
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
What if your optimization algorithm could explain its uncertainty as clearly as its results?” 🤔 In this episode🎙️ @alex-andorra.bsky.social dives into Bayesian optimization, BoTorch, and why uncertainty matters with Maximilian Balandat 🎧 Listen here: lnkd.in/gg6fcfFU #bayesian #pytorch #podcast
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 08/08/2025
Your deep learning model might be confidently wrong — and in medicine or epidemiology, that’s dangerous. In this episode, @alex-andorra.bsky.social chats with Mélodie Monod, François-Xavier & Yingzhen Li about making neural nets more reliable, Bayesian LLMs & more 🎧 lnkd.in/gcaRQXcb #bayes #llm
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 25/07/2025
Models need more than pattern-matching. They need causal understanding. In this episode, Robert Ness joins @alex-andorra.bsky.social to explore: ⚡ Why models need real-world biases 🧠 How causal rep learning is reshaping AI 🤖 What it takes to add causality to DL 🎧 lnkd.in/gUnCkwEP #bayes #podcast
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
🚨 MCMC or INLA? 🤯 MCMC = slow sampling. ⚡ INLA = fast, smart approximations. No chains, no waiting. 🎙️ On LBS, @alex-andorra.bsky.social talks with Haavard Rue & Janet Van Niekerk about how INLA works, when to use it, and why it’s a game-changer. 🎧 Listen: lnkd.in/gp8D-RuU #Bayesian #MCMC
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 10/07/2025
🚨 Tired of MCMC cooking your CPU for hours? @alex-andorra.bsky.social chats with Haavard Rue & Janet van Niekerk about INLA, a fast, deterministic game-changer for inference at scale. ✅ Handles huge + complex models ✅ Works with non-Gaussian likelihoods 🎧 www.learnbayesstats.com/episode/136-...
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 08/07/2025
🧲 Got 50 predictors, but only 5 that matter? Try the Horseshoe Prior — a Bayesian approach to sparse regression that shrinks noise, not signal. Built with Bambi + @pymc.io 🔗 Full demo: bambinos.github.io/bambi/notebo... #BayesianStatistics #Regression #HorseshoePrior #MarketingAnalytics #PyMC
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Alexandre Andorra @alex-andorra.bsky.social · 28/06/2025
New episode is out! A very practical one, where we dive into *how* to make sure your models *actually* answer the questions you're asking...
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 28/06/2025
🔍 Most Bayesian models aren’t properly checked Even when they converge, they might be wrong in ways you won’t see—unless you look differently In this episode, Teemu Säilynoja joins @alex-andorra.bsky.social to explore, SBC, prior predictive checks and more! 🎧 learnbayesstats.com/episode/135-...
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 18/06/2025
Your model says 97% confidence But should you trust it? Uncertainty in ML is still a hard problem We’re hosting a meetup at Imperial College London on June 24 to dig into it — with our host @alex-andorra.bsky.social and other researchers working on better ways forward 🔗 lnkd.in/eainEJ9p
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Alexandre Andorra @alex-andorra.bsky.social · 02/06/2025
New episode is out! In this one we nerd out quite deep on zero-sum constraints, and how to make your model sample faster 💨
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Pierre-Simon Laplace @learnbayesstats.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
Some people think R² doesn’t belong in Bayesian models 👇 David Kohns disagrees, and he has the math to back it 🎙️Ep. 134: @alex-andorra.bsky.social sits down with economist David Kohns to explore how modern Bayesian methods are reshaping time series modelling 🎧 learnbayesstats.com/episode/134-...
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