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Scholar Officials for Zohran Mamdani @ritesofzhou.bsky.social · 10h

here is, afaict, a full list of bad polls for Democrats recently, excluding NY and MN polls - ME-SEN NYT/Siena poll - that Katie Hobbs internal - that FirstStrategic AZ-01 poll - the MD redistricting poll (this one is actually concerning) - the Suffolk Ohio polls! (note the recall vote)

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Ivan Moore @alaskasurvey.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

2) The race continues to be consistently close, with Peltola leading each time. Sullivan has not led an ASR survey dating back to the summer of 2025. The race is very polarized and locked in place - and comes down to turnout, in the early voting phase and on Nov 3. 🧵8/10

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Scholar Officials for Zohran Mamdani @ritesofzhou.bsky.social · 10h

calling a guy who weights to a 2022 electorate "I Want Less" is hilarious

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Scholar Officials for Zohran Mamdani @ritesofzhou.bsky.social · 10h

district polling in NY suggests that it moves 5-6 points left from the 2024 presidential to this year's gubernatorial, substantially less than the national average but still a blueshift. This fits with Quinnipiac's statewide poll.

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Scholar Officials for Zohran Mamdani @ritesofzhou.bsky.social · 11h

unpopular opinion: Rogers did better than I expected in the debate. El-Sayed won, but I doubt that it's going to move any votes.

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Ben McAdams (The Resurrection Arc) @purrtah.bsky.social · 13h

Ray Coper is using his email list to help boost and raise funds for North Carolina Supreme Justice Anita Earls

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Katelyn Burns @katelynburns.com · 14h

Oops the centrist consultants painted themselves into a corner again

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Will Stancil @whstancil.bsky.social · 12h

He acts like he believes it

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 15h

Unfortunately Maine does not give public voter file full history to see how low propensity voters are doing, but somewhat comically more Democrats have voted already this year than in 2024 at the same time. Additionally, we can see Dems have a lot more early voters who never voted absentee/early.

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Kevin @reginageorgebush.bsky.social · 13h

this target list says the DCCC is convinced the majority is theirs and they're looking to utterly break the GOP's spirit

Ally Mutnick @allymutnick
X.com
NEWS: DCCC begs donors in memo for $17M
before 10/22 to avoid "leaving winnable seats on table" amid wave of GOP $
Top races on line: #FL27 #NVO2 #SC01 #NY21
#MNO1 #ARO2
Others needing funding, per DCCC ED Julie Merz:
#C003 #FLO7 #IN05 #0H10 #NC09 #VA05
punchbowl.news/for-donors_-a-...
2:00 PM • 10/9/26 • 45K Views
L7 45 135 月 35

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rev. howard arson @theophite.bsky.social · 12h

the thing about Ossoff is that he genuinely hates these people for what they've done

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Ben McAdams (The Resurrection Arc) @purrtah.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Quinnipiac has the GCB as D+15 in Pennsylvania and Shapiro winning 59/34 Safe to say that would probably be lights out for Fitzpatrick poll.qu.edu/poll-release...

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Ben McAdams (The Resurrection Arc) @purrtah.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Highest Cygnal has had the GCB this cycle and independents have swung crazy hard against the GOP

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Polling USA @usapolling.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

"If you we're to vote in the 2024 election, knowing what you know today, who would you vote for?" 🔵 Harris: 50% 🔴 Trump: 44% Cygnal / Oct 2, 2026

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Scholar Officials for Zohran Mamdani @ritesofzhou.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

If Upstate Redshift Theory was true, then I don’t think Republicans would have triaged NY-19.

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Scholar Officials for Zohran Mamdani @ritesofzhou.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

The thing is that the “poor NY polling“ in district polls looks like a 5 point blueshift (like Quinnipiac’s statewide poll) while the “poor NY polling” in statewide polls looks like a redshift.

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Scholar Officials for Zohran Mamdani @ritesofzhou.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

I completely buy that NY is going to shift substantially less than the country as a whole. I do not buy an actual redshift.

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Scholar Officials for Zohran Mamdani @ritesofzhou.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

TBH, I wonder if some of that is that most Democrats are better than Generic D and most Republicans are worse than Generic R

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Scholar Officials for Zohran Mamdani @ritesofzhou.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

It would be extremely funny if JKT got to 50% in the first or second round. We’d get crazy takes from people who only looked at the vulgar margin

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 07/10/2026

Bo French of course is the Republican who recently launched a racist attack against students of South Asian origin at the University of Texas. (The TX RR Commish regulates utilities, not railroads)

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Hyde T. Voltyge @hydevoltyge.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Don't read too much into this, it's just the mail vote partisanship estimate as of today from VoteHub, as in, votes already cast only. but oh is it beautiful Poquoson has fallen... darn Colonial Heights and Richmond County (99-115 and 9-10), we're at 131/133 blue localities

A very, very blue mail vote in Virginia currently

The bluest Hampton Roads has looked in modern history - The mail vote up to now (RVA, Northern Neck, etc. visible here too)

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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Refinery wise, with that VZ fire and possible storm coming up, all my best to the brave workers at Phillips 66 with their contract negotiations. I don't know what god gave your unions specifically

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Mae Nick Phra Khanong @nickjbrumfield.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

I'm not drawing red string The Red Gaurs were a prominent organization for 3 years prior to 1976, when they committed one of the most controversial acts in Thai history I can't establish causality of why the drink was called that, but it'd be like a drink called Proud Boys was started in 2021

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Cameron 🇺🇸🗽🦅 @cameroncorduroy.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

the IRS is so badly funded that the most recent time we actually measured tax evasion was 2016 btw this should be a yearly report! but instead the sum of all federal knowledge regarding the tax gap is like five spreadsheets where half the numbers are derived from decades-old figures

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Polling USA @usapolling.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Alaska - Governor Polling: Final Round: 🔵Kreiss-Tompkins: 54% 🔴Wilson: 46% First Round: 🔵Kreiss-Tomkins: 48% 🔴Wilson: 27% 🔴Bronson: 15% 🔴Taylor: 10% Alaska Survey Research / Oct 3, 2026 (Current AK-GOV model is: DEM 52% - GOP 48%) unitedstatespolling.com/p/democrats-...

unitedstatespolling.com

Democrats Surge as Republicans Enter the Final Stretch

Republicans still have time to shift the trajectory, but the latest numbers show Democrats continuing to move forward

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Reconstructionist @unavaleable.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

this is, in fact, how interest groups work

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southpaw @nycsouthpaw.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

I despise seeing what’s really going on stuffed into a “but critics say” clause.

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Senator Dr. John Brown stan account, Esq., PhD, MD, JD, LCSW @johnbrownstan.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Contra the conventional wisdom that has developed in recent weeks, I don't think Fetterman switches parties

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Anonymous Bureaucrat @bureaucratanon.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

We talk a lot on here about the big important races, but there’s plenty of Safe D ones around the country filled with idiots I’d love to see lose, and Connie Chan is at the top of the list

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Dana Houle @danahoule.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Thinking back to a year ago, when Ezra Klein did a podcast with Ross Douthat & said that to be competitive Democrats should run anti-abortion candidates in Ohio & Kansas.

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YouGov America @today.yougov.com · 06/10/2026

New YouGov polls of 7 gubernatorial races TX Hinojosa 48%, Abbott 47% OH Acton 48%, Ramaswamy 44% FL Donalds 47%, Jolly 45% NE Pillen 44%, Lynne Walz 43% MI Benson 48%, James 45% KS Masterson 47%, Holscher 44% NH Ayotte 49%, Warmington 40% (Links upthread)

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Nathaniel William Horadam @horadam.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Meanwhile, Venezuela's second largest refinery just suffered a massive explosion. 🔌💡

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ghost malone ergo propter bones @proptermalone.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

"crack spread too wide" jokes getting completely out of hand

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caffeinateddata.bsky.social @caffeinateddata.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Also an R+4 sample in state likely to have a D leaning electorate. El-Sayed being up in this poll is very good.

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Scholar Officials for Zohran Mamdani @ritesofzhou.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Other than KS and ME (which I expect to be bluer) and SD (which I expect to be much redder, unless that’s supposed to say South Carolina), this is about what I would expect

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robert j bennett, ceo, results omega @robertjbennett.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

christ almighty

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World’s Biggest Stagflation Truther @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

OTOH Dems should still be trying to juice turnout, the "low-prop" undecided leaners are D+19, and you want them to show up as much as possible. The U-shaped turnout curve is still going to apply.

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Polling USA @usapolling.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Nebraska - Governor Polling: 🔴Pillen: 44%* 🔵Walz: 43% YouGov / Oct 3, 2026 (Current NE-GOV model result: GOP 47% - DEM 44%) unitedstatespolling.com/p/democrats-...

unitedstatespolling.com

Democrats Surge as Republicans Enter the Final Stretch

Republicans still have time to shift the trajectory, but the latest numbers show Democrats continuing to move forward

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Scholar Officials for Zohran Mamdani @ritesofzhou.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Polls which don’t weight to 2024-like electorates tend to show AES up by 4 to 7. Michigan might have a stronger-than-usual fake Harris voter problem, given that it had a Clinton+8 recall electorate in 2018.

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BeshearStan @beshearstan.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Ken Paxton is the worst Senate GOP candidate since Blake Masters. Losing by 6 in Texas with a Trump+12 electorate is diabolical

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ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 06/10/2026

I don't want to brag or anything, but it appears that YouGov may have seen my article last week about Likely Voter Screens, and now has 2 different "screens", their original strict screen, and a looser screen. LINK TO YOUGOV ARTICLE: yougov.com/en-us/articl....

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Michelle Wu for President @wu4america.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Aside from these Senate results, they also have Hinojosa leading and Donalds only up two. The MI number is weird but it seems to be a result of recall vote weighting. This is a nuclear bomb

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Thomas HD @degolierthomas.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Hinojosa 48% Abbott 47%

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Scholar Officials for Zohran Mamdani @ritesofzhou.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Cruz was polling pretty weakly and did pretty badly… just not enough to actually LOSE.

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BeshearStan @beshearstan.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Uhh guys, Tim Walz’s cousin could become governor…

YouGov poll | 9/24-10/3 LV

Nebraska Governor 2026

🟥Jim Pillen 44% (incumbent)
🟦Gwen Walz 43%

Link to poll: d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_…

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Scholar Officials for Zohran Mamdani @ritesofzhou.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Most of these are modeling recall electorates 1 point redder (MI) to 2 points bluer (TX) than 2024… other than NE, which is modeling a 6 point bluer recall electorate What?

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Scholar Officials for Zohran Mamdani @ritesofzhou.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

The polling miss from Harris’ August peak was 4.3 points. Talarico is up 4.1 right now

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